ncaa football: december bowl games .........

[gman2]

more clean-up.
11-6 bowls. 24 of L30 overall.
deserve to be shot for playing notre dame.
three big ones i zeroed in on all came through, but have made some dumb decisions along the way too (toledo, given gradkowski injury. even though it was small, still dumb play).
same with birmingham. anti-hawaii on island is gambling suicide. should know better.


anything i write about the games will be posted below (in another post) as a way of 'time-stamping' the plays because this top portion of the post will probably get edited throughout the next few weeks.

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new orleans bowl (12/14)
southern miss vs. north texas
PASS

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champs sports bowl (12/21)
georgia tech vs. syracuse
PASS (for now)

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gmac bowl (12/22)
memphis vs. bgsu
very big play -- bowling green (-4.5)
bowling green 1st quarter (-0.5) (+110)

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fort worth bowl (12/23)
marshall vs. cincinnati
marshall under 54

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las vegas bowl (12/23)
wyoming vs. ucla
PASS (for now)

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hawaii bowl (12/24)
birmingham vs. hawaii
birmingham blazers 2nd half (+1.5)

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mpc computers bowl (12/27)
fresno state vs. virginia
big play -- fresno state (+5.5)
fresno state moneyline (+180)

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motor city bowl (12/27)
connecticut vs. toledo
toledo rockets (-3.5)

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independence bowl (12/28)
miami,ohio vs. iowa state
miami redhawks over 50 (-105)
ryne robinson (-0.5 catches) (-150) over todd blythe

insight bowl (12/28)
notre dame vs. oregon state
notre dame (+4.5)
notre dame moneyline (+150)

===============================
houston bowl (12/29)
utep vs. colorado
PASS

alamo bowl (12/29)
ohio state vs. oklahoma state
ohio state buckeyes (+4)

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continental bowl (12/30)
boston college vs. north carolina
boston college moneyline (+110)

emerald bowl (12/30)
navy vs. new mexico
PASS

holiday bowl (12/30)
texas tech vs. california
texas tech raiders (+12)

silicon valley classic (12/30)
northern illinois vs. troy
big play -- northern illinois huskies (pk)
northern illinois moneyline (+140)
garrett wolfe (-48.5) rushing yards over dewitt betterson

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music city bowl (12/31)
minnesota vs. alabama
PASS

sun bowl (12/31)
purdue vs. arizona state
purdue boilermakers under 57


liberty bowl (12/31)
boise state vs. louisville
boise state broncos (+11)

peach bowl (12/31)
miami vs. florida
florida gators (+4)


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[vyrus858]

Glad to see your post brother. I had a feeling BG would be the play, I think the public has a high scoring perception of Memphis after that Louisville game on ESPN a few weeks back, but I really think BG can put them in their place and you KNOW Jacobs will light up the place, the kid is amazing...Just a question on Fresno St, whats your thoughts on that game...I was leaning Virginia myself with that stable of runnin backs they have, but I would never go against the G and his winning streak lol...thanks

 

[Ndfan]

Gman,
I have been following your picks all year and loved them, but the fresno st +5.5 suprises me. I loved Virgina in this one but now im not sure. Do you think the step up in class for Fresno will be a problem? How is fresno capable of winning this one? I don't see how.

 

[JCoverS]

Thanks for your thoughts....always nice to hear your opinions.

IDENTITY and 25 in a row......hmmm.......I just can't imagine the font size needed for such an historic event. At that point, he might be relegated to renting a plane to fly a banner with his plays on it, rather than posting here.

-JC

 

[bombercoops]

IDENTITY and 25 in a row......hmmm.......I just can't imagine the font size needed for such an historic event. At that point, he might be relegated to renting a plane to fly a banner with his plays on it, rather than posting here.

-JC[/QUOTE]

LOL! :142lmao: So true!
Joined you on BG gman and looking for them to turn around their second half disaster against the rockets from a couple of weeks back!

 

[Bill]

G-Man, you make me laugh. i am sure Identity took it as a compliment.

:142lmao: :142lmao: :142lmao:

Bill

 

[Bill]

G, is 72 within the realm of probability?

Bill

 

[gman2]

mentioned in an earlier thread that scooter mcdougle was questionable for the motor city bowl, while gradkowski is still recovering from a broken hand and separated shoulder.

here's the mcdougle article. he's now officially OUT

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041209/SPORTS11/412090450

bill:

as for the 72, assuming youre talking about the bg game. if so, then yeah- 72 is more than a possibility. gmac bowl has been a high scoring bowl in the past and bg offense can put up pts in a hurry

vyrus/ndfan:

ill post some fresno thoughts a little later when i get the chance. really think theyre the right side here.

 

[vyrus858]

Sounds good, thanks G

 

[gardenweasel]

i was thinking that virginia might be just to strong on the ground for fresno......but the more i looked...the more i thought about u va travelling to idaho...to play a smallish conference club on that blue turf....and the way that pat hill seems to get his kids bowl prepared every year to play bigger conference clubs,the more i`m swaying the other way....

groh`s done a great job with u.va also...but,this trip might be a little harder sell....

my worries?...fresno`s qb tends to self destruct.....and u. va plays solid run defense...

if they can`t run,we might be in trouble...

 

[west coast guru]

Garden Fresno State was playing better ball than anybody in the country. They were flat out taking it to people the last part of the season. Sure they were not great teams, but they were still killing them. I think your right va will have very little motivation. Plus Fresno has played on the blue turf this year and should feel comfortable. I am sure everyone will be pulling for fsu in the stand because they are a league team. I know Pat Hills teams really step it up in this situation. We will see, but I love Fresno to with all the factors mentioned. Good luck in the bowl season. Keep it rolling g. I did have a guy I know hit 20 plays in a row. How did I know I was playing them for him. Since then he has dropped his ass :scared

 

[Sun Tzu]

Fresno wins outright imo

 

[gman2]

here's what im seeing in fresno:

theyre what i consider a 'momentum dog'. at the risk of tossing around handicapping hyperbole, i dont think theres more than 3 or 4 teams in the entire country that are playing better than fsu right now.

after losing to boise a month and a half ago, they got back to basics and have been absolutely dominating the line of scrimmage.

last 5 games:

56 points per game
235 rushing attempts
1471 yards
6.2 yards per carry
280 pts scored
80 pts allowed

the teams that win games this time of year are the ones who can run the football effectively. fresno has done that and then some. yes -- they did it against wac competition, but this is a wac team with the mindset of a power conference team, so im not worried about any perceived class edge. fresno has been matched up with bcs conference teams for years now, and fared very well against them. i dont even consider boise and fresno midmajors anymore, because they have played big time competition for years now in football.

virginia runs the ball very well themselves. but lets be honest here. this is a team that was ranked in the top 5 midway through the season. they had bcs aspirations. its a precipitous drop from planning on a january 1st bowl to now settling for a pre- new years day bowl 1000 west in boise, idaho. i think its gonna be tough for groh to sell this bowl to his players.

virginia stumbled to the finish, losing 2 of their last 3. fresno rolled through the back end of their schedule. bulldogs have been playing in the silicon valley bowl the last four years. this is a bowl they WANT to be in. and i think theres something to be said with their familiarity with the blue turf. theyve already played there this year and have past experience on it. sure its not a huge deal, but its something that can help the comfort level of the underdog here.

 

[Irish]

Gman, great info and solid plays. As always I like what your saying. Best of luck to you this bowl season. I'm leaning on Bowling Green, they have the O to stay with Memphis, should be a shootout. Only concern is their defense.

Good Luck
Cheers
Irish

 

[gman2]

here's what im seeing in bowling green:

line has surprisingly held steady and actually come down in some places to -4. both teams are obviously talented on the offensive side of the ball. but i dont see any way for memphis to stop jacobs and the bg passing game. the tigers secondary has given up loads of big plays this year and are near the bottom of division-1 in all kinds of defensive categories against the pass.

i think bg looks to make a statement here. they had a great season derailed by toledo in their last regular season game and the falcons offense, which was 2nd in the nation in passing, somehow didnt have a receiver make the all-conference team. jacobs has been pretty vocal about how he thought his guys got screwed. this is just another chance for magner, sharon, and sanders to rack up some big numbers on a national stage. jacobs should have all kinds of receivers open against this memphis defense.

theres no doubt that bg is going to have a tough time stopping williams on the ground for memphis. but bowling green is such a fast-starting team that i dont think the tigers are going to be able to control the clock here.

also worth noting that jacobs takes FAR better care of the ball than wimprine.

jacobs has thrown the ball 418 times this year.
36 touchdowns.
3 interceptions.

wimbrine has thrown the ball 359 times this year.
18 touchdowns.
13 interceptions.

you CANNOT turn the ball over against bg because they will drop 14 pts on you in the span of 2:00 or 3:00 if youre not careful.

the mac has fared very well in this game over the years. miami and marshall both represented the conference well in mobile. bg will be next in line to do the same.

 

[gman2]

more on bg/memphis:

turnover margin (kinda eye-popping)
memphis +0 (even)
bowling green +15

also, on an unrelated note, now that hoeppner has left miami,ohio for indiana university, i really think brandon is the next mac coach in line to move to a major college program. he pulled out of the running for the unlv job, but its really only a matter of time (my guess is after next year). theres no worry about any distraction this year, but i DO think that he will have bowling green prepared to have a dominant showing here as a way to kind of cement not only the bg program as legit, but also cement him as one of the up-and-coming coaches ready to make the jump. the fact that he ran the offense for meyer when he was at bg certainly doesnt hurt him, given where meyer is at now.

 

[gman2]

not going anywhere near the georgia tech and syracuse game.

pretty interesting article about the bg defense talking of how they want to play well despite all the hype of this being two great offenses.

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041221/SPORTS03/412210354/-1/SPORTS

 

[gardenweasel]

g....is zwick really that bad?...i know he`s not smith.....but,i have an idea about playing any match-up that pairs a solid defense vs a not-so solid defense....

certainly g.tech is an excellent start.....

i`m looking at ohio st`s defense....their linebackers in particular....and okie st`s pedestrian passing attack.....

i like the match-up...i believe they can contain morancy....

and okie st`s defense isn`t exactly stalwart....

but,if zwick is a major liability,i`ll rethink my position...

this thing had all the trappings of a large play with smith....

now a small to medium play....i`ll wait and see how high this line goes...

what`s the deal on zwick?...a major stiff?

 

[Fabulous]

Bowling Green=Bad Weather!!!!!

Bowling Green=Bad Weather!!!!!

:scared
Gman,

I was about to put a tease in on Bowling Green and the over and I noticed the line is moving down and so is the total. I looked into it and noticed that it is supposed to thunderstorm from now until well after the end of the game tomorrow. The winds are going to be 15 mph at gametime too! This has got to give Memphis a huge edge and make the under the only sensible play IMO. What do you thing/ :shrug:

 

[gman2]

fabulous:

normally i would be concerned about the weather, but not with bowling green. yes, theyre an offense that likes to spread it out and rely on speed.....but they have played in some very difficult conditions this year. the winds that circle their stadium at home in november are just nasty. doyt perry stadium is an absolute wind tunnel. their last 3 games at home this season were all played in shit weather --the emu game was rainy and windy, the marshall game and the wmu game both had very high winds -- and bowling green scored 41, 56, and 52 pts. playing in northwest ohio, where conditions are never optimal, bg should be able to handle what they face tomorrow with no problem. some teams i would worry about when the weather gets bad. bg's not one of em.

weasel:

ill get back to you in a few minutes.