boise state broncos
a couple of reasons why i think boise is the way to go here:
* im not sure louisville's defense can hold up as a double-digit chalk against a solid opponent. memphis gashed them for 600+ yards of offense (williams for 200+ on the ground), and miami went for 430+. obviously, louisville generated a hell of a lot of offense themselves, but its tough to lay DD if your defense cant get consistent stops.
* boise is the quintessential rushing dog. theyre 11th in the country in rushing and have the ability to control the clock and keep the louisville offense off the field for extended stretches if need be. i always like to give good rushing dogs looks in bowls because they dont have a lot of 3 and outs and they can sustain drives.
* boise is a big game team. their struggles came in uninspired heavy chalk roles. in their two 'big games', they dismantled both oregon state (53-34) and fresno state (33-16). when the chips are down, this team comes to play.
* boise can at least make louisville relatively one-dimensional. bsu stops the run very well (#4 in the nation, and held a solid fresno rushing attack to 17 yards). no secret that louisville's secondary isnt the greatest but they at least have the ability to stop the louisville ground attack.
* broncos have solid special teams. kicking game is excellent, and punt return is 16+yd per return.
* i do have a little bit of a concern with boise in the turnover department, so zabransky needs to take care of the ball
* theres nothing 'bad' i can say about louisville. im not going to twist stats to make them somehow not a good team. fact is, theyre damn good. but as good as they are, theyre not 10+ points better than boise. ill take my chances that boise can match the ville score for score. and i love boise's ability to run the football. to me, the playing field is level. louisville doesnt outclass boise. i think the broncs have a real shot to win this game.
