NCAA Football Picks 11-24-07

RollTide72

June 8, 2013
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10-4-1 on Posted Picks

UcheaT @ Kentucky UNDER 64

Weather: Partly Cloudy and a high of 48*

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Under is 4-0 in Volunteers last 4 games on grass.
Under is 6-0 in Volunteers last 6 games in November.
Under is 4-0 in Volunteers last 4 games overall.
Under is 4-0 in Volunteers last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 7-2 in Wildcats last 9 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 5-2 in Wildcats last 7 games in November.
Under is 10-4 in Wildcats last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.

The Viles only managed 25 points last week at home against Vandy and had to score 16 of those in the 4th quarter. Meanwhile in Athens, the Cats jumped out to a 10-0 first quarter lead and were held to one FG the rest of the way. This game has easily gone UNDER 4 of the last 5 years. The UNDER is also good for UcheaT in their last 4 games and UK's last 3 games.

UcheaT @ Kentucky -3

Volunteers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Volunteers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Wildcats are 8-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

While UK's once storybook season has taken a bad turn, they are still playing for an upper tier bowl berth today not to mention a chance to knock the Viles out of the SEC Championship. UcheaT has won 22 straight in this series and the Cats are ready to put an end to that streak. The Viles were fortunate to beat Vandy last week and the Gamecocks a month ago. Blowout wins over directional Louisiana and Arkansas are sandwiched in between. All 3 of UcheaT's losses this year have been on the road and the closest was a 14 point loss to open the season at Cal. I like the Cats big today.

Georgia @ Georgia Tech UNDER 46

Weather: 52* and overcast at kickoff.

Under is 5-0 in Bulldogs last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 5-0 in Bulldogs last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 7-1 in Bulldogs last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 7-2 in Bulldogs last 9 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-0 in Yellow Jackets last 4 games as a home underdog.
Under is 4-0 in Yellow Jackets last 4 vs. SEC.
Under is 4-1-1 in Yellow Jackets last 6 home games.
Under is 8-2-2 in Yellow Jackets last 12 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Georgia -4 @ Georgia Tech

Bulldogs are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. ACC.
Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Georgia Tech.
Bulldogs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Road team is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
Yellow Jackets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Yellow Jackets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Georgia Coach Mark Richt has turned his team around since the a$$whipping Tennessee put on them in ObKnoxville. The Dawgs will find out midway through their game if they are SEC East Champions or not. Regardless, they are playing for a chance at a BCS Bowl bid while Jackets Coach Chan Gailey is more than likely coaching his last game in Atlanta. While the Rambling Wreck may give UGA a game in the first half, the Dawgs will be barkin' at the end of the game.
 
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RollTide72

June 8, 2013
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My leans are as follows (I usually don't bet these. If I do, I take them off of the "leans" list):

Oklahoma State +13.5 (It's Bedlam in Norman. The Cowpokes always seem to hang around until the end.)

Vanderbilt +1 (This is just a gut feeling. 'Dores coach Bobby Johnson has to finally have a game go his way, doesn't he?)

My Homer pick is Alabama +4.5 (Saban and the Tide can't lose 4 in a row to end the season and a dreaded 6 in a row to the Awbies, can they?)
 
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Whitt's End

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Like Kentucky, Okie St., and So. Carolina. Buttin' heads on Vandy (Wake) and West Va. (UConn).

Morris, I like UGA, and the Under for Kentucky/Tenn. No opinion on UGA/Ga. Tech Under.

Good luck this weekend guys.
 

RollTide72

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I took UK -2.5 off my lean picks and that game is in play now (write up in first post). I'm also taking USC/Clemson off the lean picks and putting that game in play, but with a change. Due to LSU's loss yesterday, I'm also taking WVU/UCONN off my leans and putting that game in play.

Clemson -3 @ South Carolina

Weather: Upper 40s and cloudy at kickoff.

Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with USC.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings @ South Carolina.
Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Gamecocks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. ACC.
Gamecocks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
Gamecocks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Gamecocks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Gamecocks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Gamecocks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.

At first glance, I thought you gotta take the Cocks and the Ole Ball Coach. They look to be down and out and you know that Spurrier loves to stick to the Bowden family any chance he gets. Then I started to think (dangerous I know) just when you believe Clemson to be dead in the water, they jump up and surprise you. I'm sure the Tigers are still hurting from that tough home loss last week that knocked them out of the ACC Championship game, but Tommy Bowden will have them ready to play in Columbia. Clemson has won 8 of the last 10 straight up against the Cocks. The Tigers have won 6 of the 8 meetings since Bowden became Clemson's head coach in 1999, and the 75% winning mark is the best of any Tiger head coach in history against the Gamecocks given a minimum of five games. He has an average victory margin of 10.4 points per game in the state-rivalry game.

UCONN @ West Virginia -20.5

Weather: Mostly sunny and a high of 49 at kickoff.

This is my anti-trend play today. Everything points towards a Husky cover in Milan Puskar Stadium. But with LSU's loss yesterday to Arkansas, Morgantown will be ROCKING as WVU will only be 2 wins away from playing for the National Championship. The Mountaineers have beaten UCONN by a combined score of 111-43 the past 3 meetings. WVU has also covered in the last 3 match ups with the Huskies winning by 32 points in Morgantown in 2005. It's a lotta points to be laying, but I love WVU here. There will be lots of sofas set on fire tonight as WVU rolls.
 
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RollTide72

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Not a good start. Fcuking Viles... just another reason for me to hate those cokcsuckers.

0-2 so far. Looks like it's gonna be a losing day.

Need UGA to hang on and somehow keep points off the scoreboard.

Looking for WVU to keep piling on against UCONN.
 

Morris

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That Kentucky game could have gone either way. That's two losses in OT in two days for me. I'm 0-2 going into Clem and Kan tonite so I know what you're talking about. GL with your games!!
 

RollTide72

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That Kentucky game could have gone either way. That's two losses in OT in two days for me. I'm 0-2 going into Clem and Kan tonite so I know what you're talking about. GL with your games!!

Good luck to you Morris... hopefully things will swing our way. I'm looking good on my WVU bet (59-14 now) and if UGA can at least cover I can get a split with the total. I'm on Clemson tonight... hope we are on the same side.
 

RollTide72

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Ouch. 2-4 yesterday.

Miss the Under in the Georgia game by 2 points and fawking Clemson dominates South Carolina all night and wins by two as I'm laying 3.

One or two plays away from 4-2 or 5-1 day.

Oh well, will start looking at next week.
 
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