got hooked on miami,oh and uconn during the week :banghead: . after looking over some numbers, found im hitting 71% of my bigger plays (5 of 7) :yup and am seriously in the 40% :scared range for regular plays. my suggestion to anyone who tails: play the big ones, fade the shit out of the normal ones until i get some consistency back. (which this week would be wake and latech)
(big) toledo (-14.5) over ball state
* toledo's first two atrocious weeks making for incredibly soft lines on their games now. this offense is getting into a groove now (theyve had almost 1,000 yards of total offense the last two weeks). and this game is actually a revenger for toledo, as bsu beat them in muncie last year. gradkowski 44/54 for 614 and 5TDS/noINTS L2 weeks. purdue put up 599 yards of offense vs ball state. toledo runs the same kinds of sets that purdue does and ball state had no chance of stopping the boilers spread offense. its not going to be any different here. only difference is that ball state might score 14 or 17 points. problem is, toledo is gonna score 40 or 45.
(big) oregon (-2) over arizona state
* another team thats dominant at home (35-5 SU L40) catching arizona state of two big revengers. devils dominated iowa, and played so-so vs. oregon state. oregon, meanwhile, has a score of their own to settle (see: october 11th, 2003. arizona state 59 oregon 14). betting against belotti in big games at autzen is a good way to hurt the bankroll. devils have actually been outgained in 2 of their 4 games this year (vs. nwestern by about 30 and vs. oregon state by about 120). to asu's credit, they won both games and thats a sign of a good team. but they cant give up big chunks of yards if they expect to win in one of the toughest venues in college football.
(big) kent state and central michigan over 49
* im in shock over how low this number is. thought it would be at least 54 or 55. then again, i guess a cursory glance at final scores to this point would say 49 might be right. but this game should crack the number w/no problem. kent has been putting up good offensive numbers the last two weeks, but killing themselves with turnovers and untimely penalties. obviously that has the potential to kill scoring drives but ill take my chances. cmich is going to really test this kent state run defense (which is below average. they just havent played anyone - akron and rutgers have terrible rushing attacks) and cribbs is cribbs - he alone can cause havoc for the cmich defense. in sum, im playing this game mainly because i think kent has left a lot of points on the board the last few weeks and this number is soft. and i also dont think the kent D is as good as numbers indicate. someone is going to score 30 here. i just dont know which team. also- kent has traditionally been a terrible defensive team on the road in mac play. just last season, they played games of 41-38, 49-33, 37-33, and 42-33 away from home.
wake forest (+11) over nc state
* ill bite on wake again. im just not convinced this nc state offense can score enough to pull away and cover double digits. the defense is very good. but i think ncstate will be better suited for the dog role this year as opposed to chalk. both teams in off of wins in the final 1:00 of play last week. both teams want to pound the shit out of the ball on the ground, and i cant see this game getting stretched out to double digits on either side. the ncstate passing game is bordering on putrid to this point. wake at least has some semblance of a passing game to balance out their strong rush attack.
louisiana tech (+14) over fresno
* i think its a little much for fresno to be laying 14 points of conference road chalk to a battle-tested team like latech. im not saying latech is anything special, but facing miami and tennessee in back-to-back weeks can only help them during wac play. tech is much more balanced than in years past as well. now they have a good rushing game to complement their pass offense, so theyre not as one-dimensional. fresno is a solid team, but how good do those wins over washington and kansas state really look now? good enough to lay 14 points a thousand miles from home? tech keeps this within single digits. i figured this line was going to be 9 or 9.5. ill take 14 and run with no shame.
oregon state 2nd half (pk -120) over california
beavers in full come-from-behind mode right now. cal should be conservative with their possessions while anderson should be airing it out (although im not sure thats always a good thing given his accuracy) nonetheless, i think osu makes a push here in the 2h. cal has a mammoth game on deck. are they disciplined enough win this final 30:00 on the road with the trojans looming? me thinks no.
(big) toledo (-14.5) over ball state
* toledo's first two atrocious weeks making for incredibly soft lines on their games now. this offense is getting into a groove now (theyve had almost 1,000 yards of total offense the last two weeks). and this game is actually a revenger for toledo, as bsu beat them in muncie last year. gradkowski 44/54 for 614 and 5TDS/noINTS L2 weeks. purdue put up 599 yards of offense vs ball state. toledo runs the same kinds of sets that purdue does and ball state had no chance of stopping the boilers spread offense. its not going to be any different here. only difference is that ball state might score 14 or 17 points. problem is, toledo is gonna score 40 or 45.
(big) oregon (-2) over arizona state
* another team thats dominant at home (35-5 SU L40) catching arizona state of two big revengers. devils dominated iowa, and played so-so vs. oregon state. oregon, meanwhile, has a score of their own to settle (see: october 11th, 2003. arizona state 59 oregon 14). betting against belotti in big games at autzen is a good way to hurt the bankroll. devils have actually been outgained in 2 of their 4 games this year (vs. nwestern by about 30 and vs. oregon state by about 120). to asu's credit, they won both games and thats a sign of a good team. but they cant give up big chunks of yards if they expect to win in one of the toughest venues in college football.
(big) kent state and central michigan over 49
* im in shock over how low this number is. thought it would be at least 54 or 55. then again, i guess a cursory glance at final scores to this point would say 49 might be right. but this game should crack the number w/no problem. kent has been putting up good offensive numbers the last two weeks, but killing themselves with turnovers and untimely penalties. obviously that has the potential to kill scoring drives but ill take my chances. cmich is going to really test this kent state run defense (which is below average. they just havent played anyone - akron and rutgers have terrible rushing attacks) and cribbs is cribbs - he alone can cause havoc for the cmich defense. in sum, im playing this game mainly because i think kent has left a lot of points on the board the last few weeks and this number is soft. and i also dont think the kent D is as good as numbers indicate. someone is going to score 30 here. i just dont know which team. also- kent has traditionally been a terrible defensive team on the road in mac play. just last season, they played games of 41-38, 49-33, 37-33, and 42-33 away from home.
wake forest (+11) over nc state
* ill bite on wake again. im just not convinced this nc state offense can score enough to pull away and cover double digits. the defense is very good. but i think ncstate will be better suited for the dog role this year as opposed to chalk. both teams in off of wins in the final 1:00 of play last week. both teams want to pound the shit out of the ball on the ground, and i cant see this game getting stretched out to double digits on either side. the ncstate passing game is bordering on putrid to this point. wake at least has some semblance of a passing game to balance out their strong rush attack.
louisiana tech (+14) over fresno
* i think its a little much for fresno to be laying 14 points of conference road chalk to a battle-tested team like latech. im not saying latech is anything special, but facing miami and tennessee in back-to-back weeks can only help them during wac play. tech is much more balanced than in years past as well. now they have a good rushing game to complement their pass offense, so theyre not as one-dimensional. fresno is a solid team, but how good do those wins over washington and kansas state really look now? good enough to lay 14 points a thousand miles from home? tech keeps this within single digits. i figured this line was going to be 9 or 9.5. ill take 14 and run with no shame.
oregon state 2nd half (pk -120) over california
beavers in full come-from-behind mode right now. cal should be conservative with their possessions while anderson should be airing it out (although im not sure thats always a good thing given his accuracy) nonetheless, i think osu makes a push here in the 2h. cal has a mammoth game on deck. are they disciplined enough win this final 30:00 on the road with the trojans looming? me thinks no.
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