ncaa football (thurs 10/28 -- sat 10/30) ....

[gman2]

lost with gatech 1/2 under + hawaii thurs/friday. a little inauspicious beginning to the weekend, but really like saturday's plays. plus with the way some cappers are goin in here, im sure ill coat-tail some winners to (hopefully) add to these below.

• very big - eastern michigan (+33) over bowling green
  bowling green ripping teams apart right now, but i think they get caught napping here. falcons have a backloaded schedule this season. they play all their difficult games in the next few weeks. theyre about to conclude a month-long stretch of mac bottom feeders. not easy to keep getting 'up' for games where youre expected to win in a blowout. emu has given bg trouble in the past. eagles can run the ball, and sherrell had a huge game vs bg last year (190 yds on the ground). eagles have a good enough offense to trade some scores. also worth noting that brandon has pulled qb jacobs at the end of 3rd quarter the last two weeks. dont expect emu to need to rely on bg resting starters, but certainly doesnt hurt to have brandon willing to give washington some work. to make the situation even better, rain and wind are expected in northwest ohio. that could slow down bg's passing game, especially in that stadium where the winds swirl. and for as well as bg is playing, they have been unable to run the football the last month or so. last but not least, theres the coaching angle. emu hc genyk and bgsu hc brandon coached together at northwestern and genyk is a bowling green alum. brandon has been reluctant to run it up after laying it on temple earlier this season. dont see him running it up on genyk if bg manages to pull away. of course, stoops proved that anything is possible last week. but i just think everything favors emu here. im stepping out confidently and saying i dont expect this game to lose.
  
• florida (+7.5) over georgia
  hate to make a play based on just two simple angles, but its enough for me here. florida flat out owns georgia. and it seems the players really want to rally around zook. (which, incidentally, is something i never can understand. players play like shit for a whole season. coach gets fired. then they play hard as a way to show support). did i mention florida owns georgia?
  
• penn state (+7) over ohio state
  wrote some on this game below already. in sum, psu always gives ohio state trouble, no matter what the situations of both teams happen to be. we know psu cant score. but osu isnt breaking light bulbs in the scoreboard either. its way to early to say that smith is the answer after one good half against a bad indiana defense. nits have a great defense and this game is gonna be ugly. only thing i concede to osu here is the home field. other than that, psu (if they play well) is good enough to take this to the wire.
  
• arizona state and cal over 60.5
  does ted turner demand that all games shown on tbs go over the total? it seems every freakin college game on tbs goes over the number. why not this one? the strengths of both offenses are well-documented. only thing that could keep this game under is cal's defense, which is better than i used to think. but still think this one finds its way into the high 60s
  
• 2nd half: central michigan (-4) over wmu
  weather affecting this game right now. i just cant see wmu's pathetic defense holding up though. cmu runs the ball well enough to control the ball. wmu seems out of sync in the pass game with the wind. chips have to find a way to win this game.
  
• 2nd half: ohio university (-3) over kent st
  not convinced that ksu can put the game away. flashes defense gives up too many big plays to shut the door completely. ohio has moved the ball pretty effectively, so i think they tighten the game up a little bit

 

[AR182]

gman,

what do you mean that the game is the only thing on ?

what's wrong with csi (lol) ?


i like c. mich. this week. what do you think ?

i'm looking at e. mich. based on your size bet.


good luck & continued success.

 

[kneifl]

Gman -

Been sort of busy and was going to take a break after losing about 150 on Sunday. Anyway, I took your advice and took the Bengals on the MNF football game and had a feeling the under would hit too so I took them both for 66/60 and hit'em. Thanks! Anyway, I like your under pick tonight and agree it will be a grind'em out football game so I plan on taking GT +6.5 and under 39.5 (betcom) both for a very small bet and parlayed them both too (grand total of $54 ).

Good luck tonight!!!

kneifl

 

[freelancc]

(grand total of $54 ).
kneifl

:lol:

 

[gman2]

ar -- re: central michigan

im basically on record as saying central michigan will be one of the best teams in the mac in the coming years, so im certainly a believer in their brian kelly and what hes putting together up there. its a rebuilding process, but theyre laying the groundwork for a solid program.

what i like about them for saturday:
* that toledo game should give them a huge confidence boost. they went toe to toe with one of the best teams in the conference and had a shot to beat them at a huge underdog on toledo's home field. and as you mentioned in your post, they did a TON of great things offensively in toledo. seymour had a huge day (107 on the ground, 86 in receiving yds). thats to be expected. seymour is the one stud piece that cmu already had. but whats really encouraging is the way smith played (qb). he has been learning the spread offense 'on the fly' and has had some ups and downs. but he played great on saturday. 29/42 for 385. that is so big, because as bowling green, toledo, and utah have shown, a well-balanced spread offense is almost impossible to stop.

what i dont like about them for saturday:
* this is their first game this season as a favorite.
* theyre still a young team that has hurt themselves with a busted coverage or special teams miscue. they do a ton of good things, and then they make one or two mistakes and then the game gets away from them. example vs toledo: playing a solid 1st half. moving the ball well. but allow the half to totally swing on lance moore's 89-yd punt return. the week before, they were down 7-3 at half vs. northern illinois. then down 28-3 midway through the 3rd after 2 quick turnovers. theyre still a young group that has a lot of potential but inconsistent.

like you said, wmu's defense is abysmal. wolfe was absolutely chunking yards away last week. seymour should have a field day on that defense.

my only concern is that cmu is young in the secondary and, if nothing else, wmu throws the ball around really well in the passing game. cubit is a nice qb for them.

i think this one is gonna feature a lot of points, but im too gunshy to play the over because of the unexpected weather change that screwed me in toledo last week. game was played in a rainstorm and was 24-7 at half, 27-22 final. cmu/toledo had 1000+ total yards between then, but quit scoring in the 2h.

gun to my head, i think youre right with the cmu play. even though i normally look to go against teams who are in a new role (i.e laying chalk after a string of games as a dog), i think cmu should really have some good offensive numbers against the wmu defense.

 

[johnny wager]

gman- respect your plays and your style, but seriously how can you back Penn St. in that game? Their offense will have major problems IMO. Bucks down a bit from recent years, but they are no slouch at the shoe. Just wondering if you had another reason than the old "looks too obvious." How will Penn St. score?

 

[wox11]

gl ~ gman!!!

im on the under in hawaii game :scared :clap: :scared

 

[gman2]

johnny:

kind of in a rush now, but just to quickly reply.
penn state gives ohio state problems every single year. they did it when cooper was at osu, and theyre doing it when tressel is at osu. and psu has been anemic on offense in recent years, yet they have still found ways to play osu tough.

buckeyes still have their own scoring issues. im not ready to say their offensive woes have been solved just because they scored some points against indiana. plus, troy smith is making his first start against a real defense.

which leads me to penn state's defense. its outstanding. the lions may not score a bunch, but their defense is going to cause the buckeyes some problems. look at how osu has fared vs good defenses this season. they did jack vs nc state (got a couple turnovers deep in ncstate terrioty for their points). did jack against wisconsin. jack against iowa. theyre just not potent enough to be laying points with right now, especially with smith getting his first real start at qb.

 

[gman2]

hawaii (+22.5) over boise state

thought about jumping on the over in this one, but decided to grab hawaii instead. both offenses excel in the area where the opposing defense struggles. in the past boise has been throwing it around a lot more and has the reputation as a passing offense, but theyre running the ball a lot more this year and that seems to be their identity. hawaii is dead last in the nation at stopping the run. which is always cause for concern. but i think thats somewhat mitigated by the porous boise secondary that chang and the hawaii offense will pick apart. sometimes a team allows a of passing yards because they get out to early leads and the opponent passes all game to catch up. thats not the case with boise this year. theyre not as explosive as theyve been in the past (theyre every bit as good, just not as explosive) but teams have been shredding that boise pass defense from the opening kickoff until the final gun. oregon state did it from wire to wire. tulsa did it from wire to wire. byu did it from wire to wire. so i dont think chang will be 'backing into the record'. he should have a very solid day and the ncaa record breaking pass should take a back seat to what should be a good performance. both teams are gonna score. theres gonna be a lot of big plays on both sides. but i dont see boise closing the backdoor in hawaii's offense, especially since jones will have them slinging it until the final seconds. backdoor, if needed, should be wide open here.

 

[IABluffer]

banned

 

[gman2]

ooooooh kay.
hawaii play didnt work so well, lol.

finally got a chance to write the saturday games up above. good luck guys.

 

[AR182]

gman,

something that i found interesting concerning the e.mich/bg game.stat fox ran 2 game estimates & in both e. mich. out rushes bg.imo, that's very important in taking a dog.

you & that rushing angle have convinced me to make a play on e. mich.


good luck.

 

[gman2]

for those interested, there are a lot of good mac articles that could be of benefit for the saturday games. hopefully whats below can offer some help or some supplementary capping value.

central michigan/wmichigan articles (some really interesting stuff in these):
http://www.mlive.com/chippewas/sanews/index.ssf?/base/sports-0/1099061886281810.xml
http://www.mlive.com/chippewas/grpress/index.ssf?/base/sports-0/1099132974142180.xml

bowling green/emu articles:
http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041029/SPORTS03/410290315
http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?Category=SPORTS03
http://bgsufalcons.collegesports.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/102604aac.html

ohio/kent state
http://www.ohio.com/mld/ohio/sports/colleges/kent_state_university/10054908.htm?1c
http://www.ohiobobcats.com/sports/football/release.asp?RELEASE_ID=2820

marshall/ucf:
http://www.herdzone.com/sports/football/release.asp?RELEASE_ID=9349


gametrackers/live stats:
kent/ohio
http://www.kentstatesports.com/inde...nnel_id=&url_article_id=1169&change_well_id=2
central mich/ western mich
http://cmuchippewas.collegesports.com/sports/m-footbl/sched/cmu-m-footbl-sched.html
emu/bowling green
http://bgsufalcons.collegesports.com/sports/m-footbl/sched/bgu-m-footbl-sched.html
http://www.emich.edu/goeagles/

 

[Dirk Diggler]

Any leans for N. Illinois/Ball St. ?
N. Ill might be looking ahead to next week against
Toledo.
If they get a big lead, might start pulling starters thus leaving the backdoor open.
I'm thinking N. Ill(-11.5) 1st Half is pretty solid.

 

[gman2]

the situational setup favors ball state big time because , like you said, niu has a huge game on deck with toledo. and not only is it a big game, but its also a revenge setup for niu as toledo whooped their ass good last season (49-30 when niu was still ranked i believe). huskies sort of in the same setup as bowling green. both teams have had incredibly easy schedules the last month or so. im really wondering if niu is gonna be focused (or really care enough for that matter) to lay a 3 TD beating on ball state. when i capped this game, i considered it to be by far the toughest game to figure out in the mac this week. bsu has some stuff in their favor but they stink. but niu is coming off scoring 59 points last week and then toledo up next. frankly, nothing about this game appeals to me. its too difficult to figure.

 

[gman2]

played ohio university in the 2nd half (-3)
back later on tonight. later for now.

 

[kneifl]

Hey bud, I loaded up on your Over 61 in the ASU CAL game. I went against Florida in the 2nd half BIG and it bit me in the ass.....
Won my (GOATS) Kent St pic though, that helped. Lets bring it home tonight.... Need UTah as well.....

kneifl