kent at michigan state
Kent State comes into this season with a lot of momentum after finishing their 2004 campaign with 4 straight wins while outscoring those opponents by a combined 185-64. The Flashes return a large majority of their defense which was ranked #1 in the MAC in 2004. But the enthusiasm at Kent needs to be tempered because this program still has a ways to go before they begin to make a climb toward becoming a MAC contender. The Flashes no longer have do-everything quarterback Josh Cribbs behind center, as he has graduated and moved on to the NFL. Cribbs was #4 in the nation last year in total offense, accounting for 310.8 yards per game
every weekend. There were countless times when his incredible athletic ability allowed him to improvise within the offense and turn "nothing" into "something" and essentially bail out the Flashes and move the chains. That luxury is gone and will be sorely missed.
Cribbs wasn't the only significant loss on the offensive side of the ball for Kent. The Flashes lost their leading rusher (David Alston) and their leading receiver (Darrell Dowery) to graduation. Looking for an eye-popping stat? The Flashes rushed for 1695 yards as a team last year. Josh Cribbs and David Alston accounted for 1565 of them.
Kent is turning to JUCO-transfer Michael Machen at quarterback, but the running back position is a serious question mark. There's simply nobody there that is going to step in and stabilize the rushing attack. Kent will have a solid defense this year, but right now, they just don't have any reliable offense to complement their defensive unit. And that spells trouble for their season opener against a Michigan State team that has a lot of offensive firepower and is going to force Kent to score consistently if they want to keep up
and stay in the game.
Whereas Kent has all kinds of question marks at quarterback and running back, those are positions of strength in East Lansing, with Drew Stanton back for his junior year at QB and Kevin Teague moving into the starting role at running back after splitting time with DeAndra Cobb last year. The Spartans were vulnerable on defense last year, but this pedestrian Kent State offense is not going to cause MSU defensive coordinator Chris Smeland any sleepless nights heading into Saturday's game. With Cribbs, maybe. But not this
inexperienced group Kent has right now.
Eventually, the Kent offense will catch up to their defense and the Flashes will be a solid team later this season, but expecting that to happen any time before mid-October is wishful thinking. Michigan State should lay a sound beating on Kent to open the season on Saturday. Kent is getting too much credit for their strong finish to the 2004 season. Not only were those 4 wins against 4 lower-tier MAC teams, but the guys who contributed to those offensive fireworks aren't wearing Kent uniforms any longer.
Recommended play: Michigan State (-18.5)
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repost of mac futures:
ball state under 2.5 wins (-145)
all i can say is dont be afraid of the juice. this team could very well go winless in 2005. their schedule is a bitch, and any talent they had, they lost either to the nfl or to suspensions.
schedule:
at iowa
bowling green
at auburn
at boston college
at western michigan
toledo
at ohio
at northern illinois
akron
at eastern michigan
central michigan
their first four games are automatic double-digit losses. their week 5 game against western michigan should at least be competitive, but they'd have to win it on the road. even if they were to steal that one, they would then have to go 2-1 in games against ohio on the road, akron at home, and central michigan at home. bottom line is this is by far the mac's worst team. buffalo has improved, central florida left for conference usa, and western michigan has enough weapons on offense to improve from their dismal 2004 season.
ball state had one game-breaker last year (dante ridgeway, who had 105 catches in 2004 alone) and because he's playing on sundays now.... he cant help ball state on saturdays. their leading rusher (adell givens) was supposed to be back, but he decided to be a knucklehead and get booted from the team for academic reasons.
youd like to think that their brutal non-conference schedule would prepare them for the mac portion of the season, but i think those (what likely will be) blowout losses will hurt their psyche more than they'll help.
if this team finds a way to win more than 1 game, it will be a minor miracle. they were bad last year and they had some talent on offense. it will be a long season for the cards.
central michigan over 3.5 wins (+110)
seymour or no seymour, this team should have a chance at a 5-6 or 6-5 season.
schedule:
indiana
at miami, ohio
at penn state
eastern michigan
at akron
at army
ohio
toledo
northern illinois
at western michigan
at ball state
if you check out the cmu preview i posted, you'll see that they let a handful of winnable games get away from them last year. last year was a "learning year" for cmu as they made the transition to kelly's spread offense. smith showed a lot of promise in the final weeks of the season and theres no reason he shouldnt have an excellent year. im banking on their defense to improve, and if it does, then 4 wins should be almost automatic, with a good chance at 5 and an outside chance at 6. they have a chance for an upset right away against indiana. but even if they head into the mac at 0-3, they have 4 winnable games in a row --- home to eastern michigan (big revenger for them, considering how crushing that loss was last year) ... at akron, who is rebuilding... at army, who is, well, army ..... and home to ohio.
even their games with the two elite teams in the mac west (toledo and niu) are at home this season. and they close the season with a less-than-daunting road trip at western michigan and ball state.
i said it last year and im sticking to it -- this will be one of the better teams in the mac in a few years. kelly went 118-35 (41-2 from 2001-2003) and won two division II national titles at grand valley before taking this job at central michigan -- the guy is a winner and wont stand for mediocrity.
his stance on the seymour situation only proves he's a no-BS coach that will has the confidence to win even without a key guy who could help.
==
other mac futures that looked tempting:
bowling green to win the mac (+300)
their schedule is backloaded and they get rival toledo at home in the final week. their offense is gonna be sick. theyre the most complete out of the mac contenders
buffalo over 2 wins at (-115)
no stability at qb means no bet for me. but their defense has a ton of experience and should be solid enough to give them a shot to steal a few games. but their offense will be hard-pressed to crack the top 100 in the country. and thats what ultimately keeps me away from layin money on this over 2 wins. should be a handful of nice spots with buffalo "plus the points" this year though, even if they dont win more than 1 or 2 games. just close your eyes when watching their offense.
kent state under 4.5 wins (+140)
they only won 5 games last year, and that was WITH one of the most dynamic players in school history (cribbs). they've got a juco QB (albeit a talented one in machen) and lack a game-breaker at running back. their defense should be really good but to me, theyre just a rich man's buffalo ---solid defense with a lot of experience, but just dont have an offense that can score enough to win against the upper echelon mac teams. and their 4 game winning streak to close 2005 was against ohio, buffalo, eastern michigan, and central florida. the only semi-solid win in that group was against eastern michigan. to play near-.500 ball without josh cribbs is gonna be tall task, and over 4.5 wins at -160 juice is crazy.
the over/unders for the contenders (bowling green, miami, toledo) are very sharp. every way you look at their schedules, you come up with either 1/2 win more or less than their "projected total" thats open for betting. so a definite pass on all the big boys.
but those ball state and central michigan futures are big ones for me.
Kent State comes into this season with a lot of momentum after finishing their 2004 campaign with 4 straight wins while outscoring those opponents by a combined 185-64. The Flashes return a large majority of their defense which was ranked #1 in the MAC in 2004. But the enthusiasm at Kent needs to be tempered because this program still has a ways to go before they begin to make a climb toward becoming a MAC contender. The Flashes no longer have do-everything quarterback Josh Cribbs behind center, as he has graduated and moved on to the NFL. Cribbs was #4 in the nation last year in total offense, accounting for 310.8 yards per game
every weekend. There were countless times when his incredible athletic ability allowed him to improvise within the offense and turn "nothing" into "something" and essentially bail out the Flashes and move the chains. That luxury is gone and will be sorely missed.
Cribbs wasn't the only significant loss on the offensive side of the ball for Kent. The Flashes lost their leading rusher (David Alston) and their leading receiver (Darrell Dowery) to graduation. Looking for an eye-popping stat? The Flashes rushed for 1695 yards as a team last year. Josh Cribbs and David Alston accounted for 1565 of them.
Kent is turning to JUCO-transfer Michael Machen at quarterback, but the running back position is a serious question mark. There's simply nobody there that is going to step in and stabilize the rushing attack. Kent will have a solid defense this year, but right now, they just don't have any reliable offense to complement their defensive unit. And that spells trouble for their season opener against a Michigan State team that has a lot of offensive firepower and is going to force Kent to score consistently if they want to keep up
and stay in the game.
Whereas Kent has all kinds of question marks at quarterback and running back, those are positions of strength in East Lansing, with Drew Stanton back for his junior year at QB and Kevin Teague moving into the starting role at running back after splitting time with DeAndra Cobb last year. The Spartans were vulnerable on defense last year, but this pedestrian Kent State offense is not going to cause MSU defensive coordinator Chris Smeland any sleepless nights heading into Saturday's game. With Cribbs, maybe. But not this
inexperienced group Kent has right now.
Eventually, the Kent offense will catch up to their defense and the Flashes will be a solid team later this season, but expecting that to happen any time before mid-October is wishful thinking. Michigan State should lay a sound beating on Kent to open the season on Saturday. Kent is getting too much credit for their strong finish to the 2004 season. Not only were those 4 wins against 4 lower-tier MAC teams, but the guys who contributed to those offensive fireworks aren't wearing Kent uniforms any longer.
Recommended play: Michigan State (-18.5)
==========
repost of mac futures:
ball state under 2.5 wins (-145)
all i can say is dont be afraid of the juice. this team could very well go winless in 2005. their schedule is a bitch, and any talent they had, they lost either to the nfl or to suspensions.
schedule:
at iowa
bowling green
at auburn
at boston college
at western michigan
toledo
at ohio
at northern illinois
akron
at eastern michigan
central michigan
their first four games are automatic double-digit losses. their week 5 game against western michigan should at least be competitive, but they'd have to win it on the road. even if they were to steal that one, they would then have to go 2-1 in games against ohio on the road, akron at home, and central michigan at home. bottom line is this is by far the mac's worst team. buffalo has improved, central florida left for conference usa, and western michigan has enough weapons on offense to improve from their dismal 2004 season.
ball state had one game-breaker last year (dante ridgeway, who had 105 catches in 2004 alone) and because he's playing on sundays now.... he cant help ball state on saturdays. their leading rusher (adell givens) was supposed to be back, but he decided to be a knucklehead and get booted from the team for academic reasons.
youd like to think that their brutal non-conference schedule would prepare them for the mac portion of the season, but i think those (what likely will be) blowout losses will hurt their psyche more than they'll help.
if this team finds a way to win more than 1 game, it will be a minor miracle. they were bad last year and they had some talent on offense. it will be a long season for the cards.
central michigan over 3.5 wins (+110)
seymour or no seymour, this team should have a chance at a 5-6 or 6-5 season.
schedule:
indiana
at miami, ohio
at penn state
eastern michigan
at akron
at army
ohio
toledo
northern illinois
at western michigan
at ball state
if you check out the cmu preview i posted, you'll see that they let a handful of winnable games get away from them last year. last year was a "learning year" for cmu as they made the transition to kelly's spread offense. smith showed a lot of promise in the final weeks of the season and theres no reason he shouldnt have an excellent year. im banking on their defense to improve, and if it does, then 4 wins should be almost automatic, with a good chance at 5 and an outside chance at 6. they have a chance for an upset right away against indiana. but even if they head into the mac at 0-3, they have 4 winnable games in a row --- home to eastern michigan (big revenger for them, considering how crushing that loss was last year) ... at akron, who is rebuilding... at army, who is, well, army ..... and home to ohio.
even their games with the two elite teams in the mac west (toledo and niu) are at home this season. and they close the season with a less-than-daunting road trip at western michigan and ball state.
i said it last year and im sticking to it -- this will be one of the better teams in the mac in a few years. kelly went 118-35 (41-2 from 2001-2003) and won two division II national titles at grand valley before taking this job at central michigan -- the guy is a winner and wont stand for mediocrity.
his stance on the seymour situation only proves he's a no-BS coach that will has the confidence to win even without a key guy who could help.
==
other mac futures that looked tempting:
bowling green to win the mac (+300)
their schedule is backloaded and they get rival toledo at home in the final week. their offense is gonna be sick. theyre the most complete out of the mac contenders
buffalo over 2 wins at (-115)
no stability at qb means no bet for me. but their defense has a ton of experience and should be solid enough to give them a shot to steal a few games. but their offense will be hard-pressed to crack the top 100 in the country. and thats what ultimately keeps me away from layin money on this over 2 wins. should be a handful of nice spots with buffalo "plus the points" this year though, even if they dont win more than 1 or 2 games. just close your eyes when watching their offense.
kent state under 4.5 wins (+140)
they only won 5 games last year, and that was WITH one of the most dynamic players in school history (cribbs). they've got a juco QB (albeit a talented one in machen) and lack a game-breaker at running back. their defense should be really good but to me, theyre just a rich man's buffalo ---solid defense with a lot of experience, but just dont have an offense that can score enough to win against the upper echelon mac teams. and their 4 game winning streak to close 2005 was against ohio, buffalo, eastern michigan, and central florida. the only semi-solid win in that group was against eastern michigan. to play near-.500 ball without josh cribbs is gonna be tall task, and over 4.5 wins at -160 juice is crazy.
the over/unders for the contenders (bowling green, miami, toledo) are very sharp. every way you look at their schedules, you come up with either 1/2 win more or less than their "projected total" thats open for betting. so a definite pass on all the big boys.
but those ball state and central michigan futures are big ones for me.
