NCAA FOOTBALL WEEK 12

Master Capper

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2009 Season Tally (includes halftime plays)

116-105 units 0.0 units(plays rated 1-3 stars)

Favorites 33-28

Dogs 38-37

Overs 20-20

Unders 25-20


2008 Season Tally College Football

138-93-6 +52.5 units (plays rated 1-3 stars)


Favorites 30-29-2

Dogs 49-33

Overs 30-14-2

Unders 29-17-2


Took awhile but got things turned around enough to get back to even after a rough early season.

Early Plays

USF-11 ***
-If the Cards cannot score on a depleted Cuse team at home, then surely they will be very fortunate to put anything on the board against USF. Cards know that change is coming, so some of the players have surely packed it in.
 

Master Capper

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Sorry guys bungled the wording in the previous post, the teams I listed were for last week. I will assemble a list for this week.


Interesting fact for this season is that teams that have won 3 straight games against the spread are 22-37 (includes last week) in their next game. Teams that fell into this situation last week:

Air Force-Covered

Zona-failed to cover

BC-failed to cover opening line

Clemson-Covered

Miami of Ohio-failed to cover

MTSU-Covered

Miss State-failed to cover

Ohio State-failed to cover
 
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Master Capper

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A game that I am looking at is UCLA-ASU, but similiar to Wake Forest, UCLA has been a thorn in my side for years. I watched the OREG and ASU game and the Devils got beat up physically and they are now on a 4 game slide minus key players. Any of you west coast guys have an opinion on this one?
 

pistol495

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Interesting fact for this season is that teams that have won 3 straight games against the spread are 19-32 in their next game. Teams that fall into this situation are:

Air Force

Zona (depends on what line you got)

BC

Clemson

Miami of Ohio

MTSU

Miss State

Ohio State

MC,
Think some of these are wrong.
Air Force/Clemson is right but Zona lost by 8. Mia O did not cover and Ohio St certainly didnt. Then I thought that you were giving us the plays for the week and that doesnt add up.

Great stat nonetheless

Pistol
 

tulah

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A game that I am looking at is UCLA-ASU, but similiar to Wake Forest, UCLA has been a thorn in my side for years. I watched the OREG and ASU game and the Devils got beat up physically and they are now on a 4 game slide minus key players. Any of you west coast guys have an opinion on this one?

UCLA is improving and need to win out to be Bowl eligible...Tuff task considering USC is on Deck....
I think UCLA wins but I won't play on them in the Favorite role....I just don't trust it...
Don't be fooled by LW's game Vs WSU....UCLA Off is inconsistant and young....ASU Defense is good enough to give this Bruin Off problems..Looks like this game has FG fest written all over it...Seems like UCLA PK K.Forbath is automatic from anywhere on the field....These next 2 games are huge for UCLA.... Bruins @ the RoseBowl have been solid SUATS over the last few yrs...

GL this week:toast:
 

Master Capper

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Thanks for the input Tulah, as UCLA has always been a tough team for me to handicap. I really feel that ASU has packed it in this season and are going to play on fumes, but your correct that UCLAs offense is in no means a threat.
 

Master Capper

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My total projections for this week:

I forgot to add that in this system rarely will a game exceed the books total, so the over plays are generated by taking the totals either over the Vegas line or within 3 points of the Vegas line would be over plays.


CMU-45

Buffalo-49.5

OKST-45.5

BGSU-45.5

Toledo-55.5

Boise-58

Ohio State-45.5

Ohio-39

Clemson-36

Wisky-47

Iowa-39

USF-42

Rutgers-38

Purdue-52.5

FSU-56

BC-32.5

VT-46.5

Mizzou-50.5

Tenn-41.5

Georgia-42

Temple-40

TCU-45

Arkansas-57

ND-58.5

ORGST-52.5

PSU-46.5

UCLA-39

Stanford-57.5

OLEMISS-40

BYU-59

ECU-56

NEB-39.5

OKL-51.5

TXAM-59

UTEP-59.5

UTAH-47

Fresno-55.5

CSU-49.5

ORG-48

Marshall-50

SMISS-55

TEXAS-46.5

THEU-46.5

Houston-73

UCF-46

Reno-55

Hawaii-59

Florida-49

NTX-45

Monroe-49.5

Troy-67.5

MTSU-49
 
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Master Capper

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Another west coast game that I like, but is huge chalk is Reno. Aggies cannot score at all, and now you have them at home going up against one of the hottest teams in the country. Aggies are terrible at stopping the run (104th nationally) going up against the number one rushing team in the country.
 

AR182

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mc....

i'm leaning to the under in the c mich game & i see that you hae it at 45.... what do you think ?


good luck this week....
 

Master Capper

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Another team that I have struggled to cap over the years is BC, and I feel that UNC is a live dog this week. BC has feasted on garbage teams this season with wind over Kent, Northeastern, Wake,FSU, NCST, Virginia, and CMU being the lone exception. With they have faced teams with a strong defense (VT, Clemson) they have been exposed. UNC is statistically the best defense in the ACC, so you would think at +3.5 they could keep this game within a FG. One issue is that BC is undefeated at home and riding a 8 game home winning streak.
 

Master Capper

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AR,

Im passing on all MAC totals the rest of the season, the turnover factor in that conference is impossible to cap. Central probably is the best overall defensive team in the conference (a case could be made for NILL or Ohio), but BSU gives up nearly 28 points per game and this is without playing in my opinion two of the better offensive teams in the conference (CMU and WMU). I would think that Ball State would pretty much go a ground control offense if they have any hope of staying in the game in order to shorten game. I would side with the under if I played the game, but personally I am passing.
 

Master Capper

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We cannot have a playoff because it will interfere with studies, but:


Forbes' Most Valuable College Football Teams

Ten college football programs last year brought in at least $45M in revenues, compared to none five years ago, according to Peter Schwartz of FORBES. The Univ. of Notre Dame at $101M is the "most valuable team in college football." The school's athletic department operates "under the umbrella of the university and is not run as its own distinct entity," and as a result a "much higher share of profits are retained by the school for academic use." The Univ. of Texas was the "most profitable team last season, earning $46.2[M], of which $4.7[M] went to academics." Premium and club seating at Texas' Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium generates $12M per year. Of the 20 most-valuable teams, 16 have undergone "major stadium expansions and renovations" over the past ten years, and three others have renovation plans "in the works." Meanwhile, TV arrangements will "only further drive up" team values. Big 12 Conference schools will see a "$16[M] boost in TV revenue" next year from existing deal with FSN and ESPN, with "some schools projected to make as much as $10[M] in 2008, based on thier number of TV appearances and scheduling" (FORBES.com, 11/20)
RK SCHOOL VALUE PROFIT NOTES
1 Notre Dame $101M $45.8M Contributed $21.1M to academic programs last season, more than any other team; $9M from NBC each year

2 Texas $92M $46.2M Earns $12M annually from premium seating, which will rise with 44 new luxury suites and 2,000 club seats in their stadium before kick-off next season.

3 Georgia $90M $43.5M $60.3M in football revenue last season highest in SEC.

4 Michigan $85M $36.2M Will add 83 luxury suites and 3,200 club seats to "The Big House" next year at a cost of $226M.

5 Florida $84M $38.2M Football revenue increased by $11M, to $58.9M, during their national-title season last year.

6 LSU $76M $31.7M Addition of an eighth home game helped LSU's value increase 11% in one year.

7 Tennessee $74M $17.3M* Four Neyland Stadium renovation projects in ten years added more than 10,000 seats and 78 suites.

8 Auburn $73M $33.9M Each season, Tigers home games result in an estimated $50M of incremental spending in Lee County, Ala.

9 Alabama $72M $31.8M Coach Nick Saban's $4M average annual salary is highest in college football history.

10 Ohio State $71M $26.6M At $59.1M, led the Big Ten in revenue last season, but also led all of college football in expenses. Also spent $32.5M on football, 71% of that on game days.

11 Oklahoma $70M $18.5M '04 renovation to stadium, which added 27 suites and 2,500 club seats, leading to increased revenue

12 South Carolina $69M $28.9M South Carolina's value increased 22% over the course of the last year, more than any other team in the top 20.

13 Penn State $69M $29.4M Sells out each game with nation's second-largest stadium

14 USC $53M $13.0M Most-valuable program in the Pac-10 has seen a 7% increase in team value over the past year.

15 Arkansas $53M $19.3M Each home game results in $7.3M of incremental spending throughout the county.

16 Texas A&M $50M $20.5M Projects $9.5M in broadcast revenue next season.

17 Washington $50M $19.9M AD is lobbying for support of expansion to stadium, as well as the creation of a new "Huskies Athletic Village."

18 Nebraska $49M $12.4M Tom Osborne just named new interim AD

19 Michigan State $44M $18.3M Plans to increase contributions to academics as a result of revenue from the Big Ten Network.

20 Wisconsin $43M $14.3M Fell five spots in the rankings owing to a $7.6M drop in football profit since last year.

NOTES: * = Football program was directly responsible for $16.2M in donations to the Volunteer Athletic & Scholarship fund via ticket reservation fees.
METHODOLOGY: Rankings are based on what the football programs contribute to four important beneficiaries: their university (the value of contributions from football to the institution for academic purposes, including scholarship payments for football players); athletic department (the net profit generated by the football program ultimately retained by the department); conference (the distribution of bowl game revenue); and local communities with a vested interest in the team (incremental spending in the county during home-game weekends). The Forbes system weighs those four elements in declining order.
 

Master Capper

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Saturday


USF-11
-The last two trips into Tampa by the Cards with much better teams have resulted in slaughters. This Cardinal team is not very good and according to the local papers USF had intense practices this week.

Rutgers-9
-Knights defense is solid and feast on forcing turnovers, Cuse on the other hand has been a turnover machine.


NW+7
-Cats will keep this one close with possible outright


FSU over 54.5
-Nice value with the drop in the total

Arkansas over 57
-Miss States offense is under valued here

LSU under 44

Nebraska under 45.5
-Snyder is on record stating he wants to shorten the length of this game and limit Nebraskas possessions.

Texas Tech+6.5

Texas AM-5

Zona+6

Duke+19

Neveda-30
Hate laying this much chalk, but I have the one of the best offenses in the country playing against the worst offense in the country.


NTX-1
Army is hurting on the defensive side of the ball

ULLAF+3.5

Good Luck Cappers!!!1
 

Master Capper

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10-4 on the week, terrible call on Rutgers, bad beat on North Texas, lucky win on Duke and no more MAC under plays for me for the rest of my life. I still have Reno pending, so I will either be up 13.2 units or 9 units for the week depending on Reno.
 
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