33-22 NCAA
Want to thank all for their input on tonights game. :clap:
I like to bet against teams that need gifts or turnovers from their opponents to win. In this case, Toledo's turnover edge is part of the fabric of the team, and not some fly by night situation. Toledo is 15-4 SU after 3 consecutive games were they committed one or less turnovers, 31-7 SU after 2 games. I feel these trends apply strongly tonight. Mia O doesn't do well in the turnover department and their rookie qb will be under some stress in this big in conference matchup. Toledo is 15-6 SU off a bye week. I think they were already looking ahead to this game when they walked through last weeks opponent with a win and non-cover as a big chalk. Maybe thinking about last years two td loss as a home fav to Mia O. Mia O may not be able to elevate their game coming off three weaker opponents with more easy matchups on deck. They haven't done very well coming off home blowout wins esp against conference rivals. Also, there is a train of thought to take the points in these high scoring affairs. One has to respect Toledo's 17-4 ATS in conference record against Mia O's 28-25 ATS record. The public has been rocking in these weekday matchups with the favs. Maybe the worm turns here. I generally don't let the weather affect my wagers, but tonight Mia O turnover prone offense may give it away even more to a team that looks for them on this slick field with a possible wet ball. The line should be double digits at least in this one, and Toledo is still getting money. A lot of strong trends favoring Mia O here but I'll take the dog in an upset.
Toledo +
Want to thank all for their input on tonights game. :clap:
I like to bet against teams that need gifts or turnovers from their opponents to win. In this case, Toledo's turnover edge is part of the fabric of the team, and not some fly by night situation. Toledo is 15-4 SU after 3 consecutive games were they committed one or less turnovers, 31-7 SU after 2 games. I feel these trends apply strongly tonight. Mia O doesn't do well in the turnover department and their rookie qb will be under some stress in this big in conference matchup. Toledo is 15-6 SU off a bye week. I think they were already looking ahead to this game when they walked through last weeks opponent with a win and non-cover as a big chalk. Maybe thinking about last years two td loss as a home fav to Mia O. Mia O may not be able to elevate their game coming off three weaker opponents with more easy matchups on deck. They haven't done very well coming off home blowout wins esp against conference rivals. Also, there is a train of thought to take the points in these high scoring affairs. One has to respect Toledo's 17-4 ATS in conference record against Mia O's 28-25 ATS record. The public has been rocking in these weekday matchups with the favs. Maybe the worm turns here. I generally don't let the weather affect my wagers, but tonight Mia O turnover prone offense may give it away even more to a team that looks for them on this slick field with a possible wet ball. The line should be double digits at least in this one, and Toledo is still getting money. A lot of strong trends favoring Mia O here but I'll take the dog in an upset.
Toledo +
