Season 217-175-5 +31.5 units
Right now, I have been in a groove, sort of like the baseball player that is hot and can literally see the seams of the pitch as they are batting. I am rolling on a 54-24-1 streak, but just like the hot hitter in baseball, sooner or later the streak is interrupted with a wicked cold streak, so I am due to hit a cold spell. I have a little time on my hands today, so I put some of my reasoning behind each play below. I'm not liking the card too much today, too many favorites adn overs for me, but going to ride out the numbes.
NE-WMARY over 130.5
-Really don't see much value in the line, as I have it capped at NE-2, so going to play the over, as I have it falling in the range of 129-134.
Delaware-7
I have this capped at DEL-12, but I also have this game capped under the total in the range of 135-138.
GTOWN-4.5
I have this game capped at GTOWN-6, but they have historically been a tough team for me to cap. In addition, I have this total falling over the number at 126.
TCU-SOONERS over 116
I have this game capped at a total of 125, so I see a little value on the over. Of course, TCU is dreadful on offense and I worry about the Frogs really working the clock here to keep the game close. My hope is that the Sooners get out to a big early lead and force TCU out of their deliberate offense. I have this game capped at OKIE-17.5, so very little value on the sides play.
Kansas-7.5
I have this capped at KU-10, pretty much based on the home court and the historical trend of this series. Initially, my logic led me to think the under was the plays here, but the numbers actually has the total exactly at 129, so pass on the total.
WOOF-WCAR over 123
I have this game capped in the 124-127 range, so I will take a flyer on the over. On the sides, I have WCAR winning by 3.5 points.
CHATT-2.5
Tough game to cap, The SOCON is extremely competitive once you get past the top two or three teams. I really struggle with capping both CHATT and Greensboro. I have the Mocs winning this one by 4-5 points. The total is dead on IMO, as I have it at 136.
FUR-APPYST under 144
I have this game capped in the 137-139 range, so I will play the under here. On the sides, my gut tells me that Furman gets the cash tonight, but my numbers have APPY winning by 9.
WebST-16.5**
I'm going to make this my only double play tonight, as I have the favorites winning this one by 23. Idaho State is perhaps the worst road team in the country, so although the line has dropped from its opening, I think WebSt wins this one going away. I have this one also capped to fly way over the total, as I have it falling in he 130 range, but due to the ineptness of Idaho State on the road, I am going to pass on the total.
Fairfield-7.5
I have this game capped at Fairfield winning by 10-11.5 points, but I have struggled in capping Hatten this season. The injury to Beamon has screwed up my system on Hatten. I have this total hitting in the 118-121 range,
Alcorn-Pine Bluff
I don't have a total on this game, but I have it capped at 127. These SWAC games tend to fall under the total when they are played on the U every Monday. The line of PBLUFF-4.5 seems really strange, since they just beat Alcorn on the road by 10, and they also have one 5 of their last 6 games. PBLUFF is undefeated at home, whereas, Alcorn is brutal on the road.
Right now, I have been in a groove, sort of like the baseball player that is hot and can literally see the seams of the pitch as they are batting. I am rolling on a 54-24-1 streak, but just like the hot hitter in baseball, sooner or later the streak is interrupted with a wicked cold streak, so I am due to hit a cold spell. I have a little time on my hands today, so I put some of my reasoning behind each play below. I'm not liking the card too much today, too many favorites adn overs for me, but going to ride out the numbes.
NE-WMARY over 130.5
-Really don't see much value in the line, as I have it capped at NE-2, so going to play the over, as I have it falling in the range of 129-134.
Delaware-7
I have this capped at DEL-12, but I also have this game capped under the total in the range of 135-138.
GTOWN-4.5
I have this game capped at GTOWN-6, but they have historically been a tough team for me to cap. In addition, I have this total falling over the number at 126.
TCU-SOONERS over 116
I have this game capped at a total of 125, so I see a little value on the over. Of course, TCU is dreadful on offense and I worry about the Frogs really working the clock here to keep the game close. My hope is that the Sooners get out to a big early lead and force TCU out of their deliberate offense. I have this game capped at OKIE-17.5, so very little value on the sides play.
Kansas-7.5
I have this capped at KU-10, pretty much based on the home court and the historical trend of this series. Initially, my logic led me to think the under was the plays here, but the numbers actually has the total exactly at 129, so pass on the total.
WOOF-WCAR over 123
I have this game capped in the 124-127 range, so I will take a flyer on the over. On the sides, I have WCAR winning by 3.5 points.
CHATT-2.5
Tough game to cap, The SOCON is extremely competitive once you get past the top two or three teams. I really struggle with capping both CHATT and Greensboro. I have the Mocs winning this one by 4-5 points. The total is dead on IMO, as I have it at 136.
FUR-APPYST under 144
I have this game capped in the 137-139 range, so I will play the under here. On the sides, my gut tells me that Furman gets the cash tonight, but my numbers have APPY winning by 9.
WebST-16.5**
I'm going to make this my only double play tonight, as I have the favorites winning this one by 23. Idaho State is perhaps the worst road team in the country, so although the line has dropped from its opening, I think WebSt wins this one going away. I have this one also capped to fly way over the total, as I have it falling in he 130 range, but due to the ineptness of Idaho State on the road, I am going to pass on the total.
Fairfield-7.5
I have this game capped at Fairfield winning by 10-11.5 points, but I have struggled in capping Hatten this season. The injury to Beamon has screwed up my system on Hatten. I have this total hitting in the 118-121 range,
Alcorn-Pine Bluff
I don't have a total on this game, but I have it capped at 127. These SWAC games tend to fall under the total when they are played on the U every Monday. The line of PBLUFF-4.5 seems really strange, since they just beat Alcorn on the road by 10, and they also have one 5 of their last 6 games. PBLUFF is undefeated at home, whereas, Alcorn is brutal on the road.
