NCAA Picks, 1/23/05-1/29/05
- Thread starter BGFalcon
- Start date
Early Tuesday picks:
St. Joe's +1 over Penn: I wanted to post this before the line moves. The wrong team is favored here. Penn has won their last two games (Siena and Lafayette) but they are not as good as they have been in the past. They may still be good enough to win the Ivy League but that is not the same as the A-10. St. Joe's is coming together at a good time. They have won five of six with the only loss at Dayton. As long as they can keep Begley from having a huge night, they should win by 5 or 6. Getting a point is a bonus.
Northern Illinois +8 over Buffalo: This is simply too many points to ask Buffalo to cover, even at home. NIU has been very competitive on the road and shoots the ball very well (Peterson is especially on fire). I also think they are mentally tougher than Buffalo who have to play three league games this week. Combine this with Buffalo's struggles at the foul line, I see the Huskies keeping this one within 8. I had Buffalo as a 3.5 point favorite. Take the points.
St. Joe's +1 over Penn: I wanted to post this before the line moves. The wrong team is favored here. Penn has won their last two games (Siena and Lafayette) but they are not as good as they have been in the past. They may still be good enough to win the Ivy League but that is not the same as the A-10. St. Joe's is coming together at a good time. They have won five of six with the only loss at Dayton. As long as they can keep Begley from having a huge night, they should win by 5 or 6. Getting a point is a bonus.
Northern Illinois +8 over Buffalo: This is simply too many points to ask Buffalo to cover, even at home. NIU has been very competitive on the road and shoots the ball very well (Peterson is especially on fire). I also think they are mentally tougher than Buffalo who have to play three league games this week. Combine this with Buffalo's struggles at the foul line, I see the Huskies keeping this one within 8. I had Buffalo as a 3.5 point favorite. Take the points.
Wednesday picks:
Not much time for write ups--
UWGB +9 over Detroit: Detroit tough at home but too many points for them to cover in a slow game.
Iowa -5.5 over Northwestern: Iowa trying to put things to gether while NW spinning its wheels. Late cover by the Hawkeyes as they cash in at the line in the second half.
Purdue +1.5 over UWM: Keady's only got so many wins left and needs this one bad. Pretty good letdown spot for UWM as they focus on the Horizon title.
Not much time for write ups--
UWGB +9 over Detroit: Detroit tough at home but too many points for them to cover in a slow game.
Iowa -5.5 over Northwestern: Iowa trying to put things to gether while NW spinning its wheels. Late cover by the Hawkeyes as they cash in at the line in the second half.
Purdue +1.5 over UWM: Keady's only got so many wins left and needs this one bad. Pretty good letdown spot for UWM as they focus on the Horizon title.
Thought maybe you would lay the chalk with Sparty since they have been so kind to you over the past few weeks.
One total:
Buffalo/Marshall over 142.5: I won't be surprised to see Buffalo score 80 tonight. Marshall should be able to manage 65-70 against a Buffalo team that just gave up 80 to NIU and really become disinterested in guarding anyone recently.
Buffalo/Marshall over 142.5: I won't be surprised to see Buffalo score 80 tonight. Marshall should be able to manage 65-70 against a Buffalo team that just gave up 80 to NIU and really become disinterested in guarding anyone recently.
Yale/Penn under 137: Yale hasn't played in a while so they should be rusty offensively. Penn is on a three game winning streak but other than the win over St. Joe's, the wins weren't unexpected. Scoring in the 80's against Siena and Lafayette is not a difficult task. Even though Yale is so-so defensively, Penn is not a great shooting team. I look for the Quakers to get around 70 which means they need to keep Yale under 67. That should not be a problem.
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Saturday:
UWM -4.5 over UWGB: Keep riding that Horizon League horse. They are clearly the class of the league. We're getting a pretty good number because UWGB just beat Detroit on the road but Detroit is proving to be just another middle of the pack team. UWGB can move into a tie for first with a win. If they lose, UWM will have a two game lead over the rest of league. UWM beat UWGB by 30 less than a month ago and has won 8 out of nine. The only loss was that puzzling no-show against Detroit. I see UWM pulling away in the second half for an 8 or 9 point win.
Minnesota +17 over Illinois: I don't think Minnesota is getting the respect they deserve. They do a lot of things pretty well, but nothing great. They defend and compete which are keys in covering a large number, especially on the road. Illinois is a very good team and could run the table in the regular season but I don't see them covering a spread this large.
NIU +8 over Ball St.: Ball St. is very tough at home but this number is a bit too high by my numbers. NIU has competed in every MAC game (except when they went to CMU) and came back from the dead against Buffalo to cover. They play like they've got money on the dog. Testicle Tech should win the game but not by 8. Of course, I thought BG would cover when they went to Muncie and we know what happened then.
UWM -4.5 over UWGB: Keep riding that Horizon League horse. They are clearly the class of the league. We're getting a pretty good number because UWGB just beat Detroit on the road but Detroit is proving to be just another middle of the pack team. UWGB can move into a tie for first with a win. If they lose, UWM will have a two game lead over the rest of league. UWM beat UWGB by 30 less than a month ago and has won 8 out of nine. The only loss was that puzzling no-show against Detroit. I see UWM pulling away in the second half for an 8 or 9 point win.
Minnesota +17 over Illinois: I don't think Minnesota is getting the respect they deserve. They do a lot of things pretty well, but nothing great. They defend and compete which are keys in covering a large number, especially on the road. Illinois is a very good team and could run the table in the regular season but I don't see them covering a spread this large.
NIU +8 over Ball St.: Ball St. is very tough at home but this number is a bit too high by my numbers. NIU has competed in every MAC game (except when they went to CMU) and came back from the dead against Buffalo to cover. They play like they've got money on the dog. Testicle Tech should win the game but not by 8. Of course, I thought BG would cover when they went to Muncie and we know what happened then.
Think you may be on the right track on the NIU game after watching BSU play here Tuesday night. If Chapman doesn't go the Cards are mighty soft inside. They still have size but Howland is a toad, and gets beat by quickness nearly every time in the paint. Kent, also at 6' 11'' is very quiet inside as well. In the back court, I like Stovall a lot, he hustles his ass off and has no difficulty in creating shots. Trammell is also a very effective scorer, but neither of these two guards distributes the ball well at all, and BSU is very vulnerable to pressure defense and the turnover.
As you stated, the huskies have demonstrated a certain knack for hanging around in games. They have have been down big and still seem to find a way to sneak inside the number. I like their mettle, and it seems that this is another opportunity to hang around again. Ball State received a very large black eye in Akron, so it will be interesting to see to what extent that the Card's have recovered today.
I may or may not jump aboard this one today, I have a sneaking feeling that Chapman will lace them up and play today. I just can't jump on the Huskies until I know for sure if they will be facing one of the top overall players in the MAC.
BTW : Have any info on the status of BG's Fitch today ??
As you stated, the huskies have demonstrated a certain knack for hanging around in games. They have have been down big and still seem to find a way to sneak inside the number. I like their mettle, and it seems that this is another opportunity to hang around again. Ball State received a very large black eye in Akron, so it will be interesting to see to what extent that the Card's have recovered today.
I may or may not jump aboard this one today, I have a sneaking feeling that Chapman will lace them up and play today. I just can't jump on the Huskies until I know for sure if they will be facing one of the top overall players in the MAC.
BTW : Have any info on the status of BG's Fitch today ??
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thats a bullshit push on northern. they folded like a cheap suit. up 8 with under 10 to play. then up 3 with 5 left. then completely blow the lead and lose by 8? thats awful. you deserved better
I've had a few of those but so have you. If we are on the right side consistently, it will even out and we will win in the long run. Sorry it took so long to respond but I was drinking beer and playing blackjack in Detroit for the last two days. At least that was profitable.
Results: 0-2-1
Week Results: 4-5-1
YTD: 19-19-3, -1.9 units
Results: 0-2-1
Week Results: 4-5-1
YTD: 19-19-3, -1.9 units
