NCAA Picks, 1/30/05-2/5/05

BGFalcon

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Iowa +3.5 over Michigan St.: Iowa has had time to prepare for this game knowing that Pierce is gone. Sparty might take them a little more lightly now and that is something they can't afford to do. I subscribe to the theory that the first game after losing a key player the team plays well and then suffers a letdown in the second game. Sparty is not a great offensive team and Iowa getting 3.5 on their home court should keep this one close.
 

BGFalcon

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Miami -6.5 over Buffalo: I'll continue to fade the Bulls until they show me that they can play with any kind of toughness. I had this lined at -10. We're getting good value because Buffalo beat Miami last month. But Buffalo shot 55% from three while Miami hit only 4 of 20. Miami has improved alot since that game. I see this game going a lot like Miami's game against Toledo Tuesday night with the Redhawks playing smart on offense, keeping Buffalo shooting from the perimeter and pounding the boards. Lay the points.

May have a couple more later. I'm hoping for some line movement in one game and waiting for some Ivy League lines.
 

BGFalcon

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Penn -10 over Dartmouth: Dartmouth suffers a big letdown here after pulling the stunner last night. This is big chalk to lay on the road but Penn is the class of the Ivy and Dartmouth is not good. Take away the miracle 18-1 run in the last five minutes of the game last night and we would be looking at a line of 13 or 14. I like Penn to steadily pull away in this one for a comfortable 15 point win.

Harvard +6 over Princeton: I like the fight in this Harvard team. They got down by double digits last night against Penn and went 15-2 to tie it up. They eventually lost by 13 but Princeton is not Penn. I see the Tigers getting off to a slow start while they try to figure out how the hell they lost to Dartmouth. Harvard should be able to keep this one close. Take the home dog.

Yale +1.5 over Cornell: Yale showed last night that their record is misleading. Their strength of schedule is much better than Cornell. They should have no problem with Cornell. It's not easy to go on the road and win back-to-back in the Ivy but it's a lot easier if you get to play Cornell in one of the games. Take the gift points.
 

BGFalcon

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Penn/Dartmouth over 122: Penn will have no trouble scoring points in this one and should have a healthy lead by halftime. The second half will be very loose and getting to 122 will be no problem. I've got Penn scoring 68 so Dartmouth needs to get 54 to cover this number. They should get that during garbage time.
 

BGFalcon

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Jan 3, 2005
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Sunday: No picks. FWIW, I like the Eagles if you can get +7.5. If not, just sit back, play a few props and enjoy the commercials.

Week Results: 9-6-1
YTD: 28-25-4, +0.5 units
 
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