NCAA Picks, 2/21/05-2/27/05
- Thread starter BGFalcon
- Start date
Late Monday Pick
Late Monday Pick
Hawaii -2 over UTEP: Stepping out of my comfort with a non-MAC, -Big Ten, and -Horizon League selection. But, I can't resist this one. Three road games in 6 days for the Miners and a long trip to Hawaii. Hawaii lost by one to UTEP earlier in the year and are a solid team. Definitely a bad spot for UTEP with Hawaii looking to get back on track after a tough loss to UWM.
Late Monday Pick
Hawaii -2 over UTEP: Stepping out of my comfort with a non-MAC, -Big Ten, and -Horizon League selection. But, I can't resist this one. Three road games in 6 days for the Miners and a long trip to Hawaii. Hawaii lost by one to UTEP earlier in the year and are a solid team. Definitely a bad spot for UTEP with Hawaii looking to get back on track after a tough loss to UWM.
Wednesday picks
Wednesday picks
Write ups later
BGSU +1.5 over NIU:
Butler -6 over YSU:
Wright St. +7.5 over UIC:
Wednesday picks
Write ups later
BGSU +1.5 over NIU:
Butler -6 over YSU:
Wright St. +7.5 over UIC:
Write ups
Write ups
Butler/YSU: Obviously I'm not alone in liking Butler since the line has moved to 8.5. I just can't see YSU playing hard for the whole game. They have wrapped up the #9 seed and really aren't playing for anything. Butler has a chance to move up to the #7 seed and into a more favorable half-bracket. They have been very inconsistent this year but should be good enough to cover the road chalk.
BGSU/NIU: This is more of a fade of NIU than a play on BG even though BG is 7-3 ATS on the road. The Huskies were good value early in the year but seemed to have packed it in. BG has covered 7 of the last 8 vs. NIU and should get a solid road win here.
Wright St./UIC: UIC has let the defense slide over the past 6 or 7 games which will make it difficult to cover a number this big. Wright St. is 14-7 against the spread and are shooting the ball better recently. They should shoot it great tonight since UIC has been letting teams hit at least 50% over the last six games. I had this game lined at 3.5 so I will take the 7.5.
Write ups
Butler/YSU: Obviously I'm not alone in liking Butler since the line has moved to 8.5. I just can't see YSU playing hard for the whole game. They have wrapped up the #9 seed and really aren't playing for anything. Butler has a chance to move up to the #7 seed and into a more favorable half-bracket. They have been very inconsistent this year but should be good enough to cover the road chalk.
BGSU/NIU: This is more of a fade of NIU than a play on BG even though BG is 7-3 ATS on the road. The Huskies were good value early in the year but seemed to have packed it in. BG has covered 7 of the last 8 vs. NIU and should get a solid road win here.
Wright St./UIC: UIC has let the defense slide over the past 6 or 7 games which will make it difficult to cover a number this big. Wright St. is 14-7 against the spread and are shooting the ball better recently. They should shoot it great tonight since UIC has been letting teams hit at least 50% over the last six games. I had this game lined at 3.5 so I will take the 7.5.
BGFalcon said:
aint that the truth. totally puzzling lack of committment to D from a normal physical and aggressive team. strange. gl falcon.
One Total:
One Total:
NW/Illinois under 127: With a 20 point spread this projects out to 73-53 or so. I don't see Illinois scoring that many tonight. The Illini should get off to a great start and then coast to the big win. NW will stick to their game plan of slowing it down but will have trouble finishing. This one should stay around 122.
One Total:
NW/Illinois under 127: With a 20 point spread this projects out to 73-53 or so. I don't see Illinois scoring that many tonight. The Illini should get off to a great start and then coast to the big win. NW will stick to their game plan of slowing it down but will have trouble finishing. This one should stay around 122.
Thursday Picks
Thursday Picks
Wisconsin/Michigan St. over 132: My therapist won't let me lay the chalk in this one since I am still having nightmares over Sparty's meltdown during the earlier matchup. So I will play the over. I think the two are correlated and Sparty will get a big win here. Sparty is going to get a nice seed in tournament if they finish strong and will make some noise in March.
UC/Marquette under 136.5: Can't see the Bearcats giving up too many in this one or scoring more than 70. Of course I thought the same thing with Illinois and NW and the Illini went off for 84.
ULL -2.5 over Arkansas St: The class of the Sun Belt (stop laughing) and playing well goes against a recently struggling Arkansas St. team. I'll lay the small chalk and look for the double-digit win.
Thursday Picks
Wisconsin/Michigan St. over 132: My therapist won't let me lay the chalk in this one since I am still having nightmares over Sparty's meltdown during the earlier matchup. So I will play the over. I think the two are correlated and Sparty will get a big win here. Sparty is going to get a nice seed in tournament if they finish strong and will make some noise in March.
UC/Marquette under 136.5: Can't see the Bearcats giving up too many in this one or scoring more than 70. Of course I thought the same thing with Illinois and NW and the Illini went off for 84.
ULL -2.5 over Arkansas St: The class of the Sun Belt (stop laughing) and playing well goes against a recently struggling Arkansas St. team. I'll lay the small chalk and look for the double-digit win.
agree on the msu play. i think they win by 10+ tonight but, like yourself, still takin the d1ck outta my ass from that first meeting when msu folded with 2:00 left.
Friday Picks
Friday Picks
No time for writeups as I am punishing myself by watching the tape of the last 56 seconds of the UC game. I want to count each of the freaking 18 points that were scored in that time period! :cursin:
Dartmouth -1.5 over Brown
Columbia +5 over Princeton
Friday Picks
No time for writeups as I am punishing myself by watching the tape of the last 56 seconds of the UC game. I want to count each of the freaking 18 points that were scored in that time period! :cursin:
Dartmouth -1.5 over Brown
Columbia +5 over Princeton
Saturday Picks:
Saturday Picks:
Minnesota PK over Purdue: After all the hoopla about Keady's last home game, Senior Day, etc. I still can't overlook the fact that this Purdue team is not that good. They allow teams to shoot too high a percentage to be successful and the Gophers should be able to take advantage of that. Minnesota has a favorable remaining schedule (@Penn St.) and has a chance to go 10-6 in the Big 10 and win 20 games. They can't afford a stumble here. According to my numbers Minnesota should be laying 3 so PK is a good play.
Ohio -1 over Marshall: Ohio is still in the hunt in the East while Marshall is...um...not. The Bobcats have Buffalo coming to Athens on Wednesday and then finish up at Kent St. It is not unrealistic for them to think they can win out and finish 12-6, 18-9. Ohio is 6-3 ATS on the road and will win this one by 5-6 points.
Akron +4 over Kent St.: Kent is getting a lot respect for its home court but have had trouble covering at home this year. I like this Akron team. They play hard and their defense is solid. Travis is showing some true leadership and is a force inside. I'll take 4 points in what should be a toss-up game.
Michigan +6 over Northwestern: Don't let young kids watch this mess. I'm banking on this game being played in the 50's which makes 6 a big number for NW to cover.
Maybe a few totals later.
Saturday Picks:
Minnesota PK over Purdue: After all the hoopla about Keady's last home game, Senior Day, etc. I still can't overlook the fact that this Purdue team is not that good. They allow teams to shoot too high a percentage to be successful and the Gophers should be able to take advantage of that. Minnesota has a favorable remaining schedule (@Penn St.) and has a chance to go 10-6 in the Big 10 and win 20 games. They can't afford a stumble here. According to my numbers Minnesota should be laying 3 so PK is a good play.
Ohio -1 over Marshall: Ohio is still in the hunt in the East while Marshall is...um...not. The Bobcats have Buffalo coming to Athens on Wednesday and then finish up at Kent St. It is not unrealistic for them to think they can win out and finish 12-6, 18-9. Ohio is 6-3 ATS on the road and will win this one by 5-6 points.
Akron +4 over Kent St.: Kent is getting a lot respect for its home court but have had trouble covering at home this year. I like this Akron team. They play hard and their defense is solid. Travis is showing some true leadership and is a force inside. I'll take 4 points in what should be a toss-up game.
Michigan +6 over Northwestern: Don't let young kids watch this mess. I'm banking on this game being played in the 50's which makes 6 a big number for NW to cover.
Maybe a few totals later.
Saturday adds:
Saturday adds:
UIC/Butler over 128.5: UIC has decided to stop guarding people so Butler should have tons of wide open shots. But, UIC is athletic enough to put some points on the board. I see a game in the high 60's.
Iowa/Penn St. under 133: This line will keep falling as people realize that neither team can score. Penn St. will keep this pace slooooow.
Princeton/Cornell over 111.5: This is too low of a number for a Saturday night game. The defense just won't have the same intensity after playing last night.
Yale -1 over Dartmouth: Dartmouth has made some strides this year but Yale is the better team. They will show it tonight.
Harvard -4.5 over Brown: Harvard should have no trouble covering the medium chalk at home. Brown is not real good and Harvard is playing pretty well.
Note: Minnesota is now up to +2.5.
Saturday adds:
UIC/Butler over 128.5: UIC has decided to stop guarding people so Butler should have tons of wide open shots. But, UIC is athletic enough to put some points on the board. I see a game in the high 60's.
Iowa/Penn St. under 133: This line will keep falling as people realize that neither team can score. Penn St. will keep this pace slooooow.
Princeton/Cornell over 111.5: This is too low of a number for a Saturday night game. The defense just won't have the same intensity after playing last night.
Yale -1 over Dartmouth: Dartmouth has made some strides this year but Yale is the better team. They will show it tonight.
Harvard -4.5 over Brown: Harvard should have no trouble covering the medium chalk at home. Brown is not real good and Harvard is playing pretty well.
Note: Minnesota is now up to +2.5.
