NCAA Picks, 2/7/05-2/13/05
- Thread starter BGFalcon
- Start date
Tuesday Picks
Tuesday Picks
WMU -6 over Buffalo: I'm going to continue to fade Buffalo until they show me they are tough enough to compete in this league. Sure, they covered against Miami but they pissed the game away. That will still be on their minds as they travel to Kalamazoo. I see Western putting the clamps on Buffalo and controlling this game on the boards. Rost and Reed will have a field day. Grab the six before it goes away.
Penn -8 over Princeton: Penn has a chance to run away with the Ivy if they win here which makes me a little leery about laying the 8. But Princeton is not nearly what they were supposed to be and Penn is playing very well. They had two comfortable wins last weekend so they should be fairly fresh. Princeton must be wondering what happened to their season. 8 points is alot to lay against a team like Princeton who slows down the game but I have it lined at 10.5 which makes it a play. Gotta trust the numbers.
Really would like to lay the 14.5 with Illinois over Michigan. Not because Illinois is that good but because Michigan is so bad right now. Amaker has lost the team and they are so short-handed I don't know if they can win any more games this year. I hesitate to lay double digits on the road but this might be one of the few times I do.
Tuesday Picks
WMU -6 over Buffalo: I'm going to continue to fade Buffalo until they show me they are tough enough to compete in this league. Sure, they covered against Miami but they pissed the game away. That will still be on their minds as they travel to Kalamazoo. I see Western putting the clamps on Buffalo and controlling this game on the boards. Rost and Reed will have a field day. Grab the six before it goes away.
Penn -8 over Princeton: Penn has a chance to run away with the Ivy if they win here which makes me a little leery about laying the 8. But Princeton is not nearly what they were supposed to be and Penn is playing very well. They had two comfortable wins last weekend so they should be fairly fresh. Princeton must be wondering what happened to their season. 8 points is alot to lay against a team like Princeton who slows down the game but I have it lined at 10.5 which makes it a play. Gotta trust the numbers.
Really would like to lay the 14.5 with Illinois over Michigan. Not because Illinois is that good but because Michigan is so bad right now. Amaker has lost the team and they are so short-handed I don't know if they can win any more games this year. I hesitate to lay double digits on the road but this might be one of the few times I do.
Wednesday picks:
Wednesday picks:
Tuesday results: 0-1-1
BG +6 over Toledo: BG is starting to click again after a few mid-season stumbles. This team is very competitive and has had a couple of second halves recently that make you wonder what Dakich is saying to them in the lockerroom. I'll take 6 points in this rivalry game, especially with Stan Joplin on the Rockets bench.
NW/Minnesota under 124.5: The Wildcats do a good job controlling tempo and Minnesota won't force the issue. I have the Gophers scoring in the low 60's. As long as they can keep NW from keeping this too close, the under should be solid. I have it at 62-55.
Iowa +10.5 over Wisconsin: I think the pace will be slow enough that Wisky will have trouble covering double digits. Iowa can't shoot as badly as they did against Sparty, can they?
CMU/NIU under 138.5: With a 13 point spread this game is booked at 76-63. I don't see the Huskies putting up points like that and I certainly don't see the Chips with any offensive firepower. Look for NIU to protect a halftime lead and slow down the second half.
Wednesday picks:
Tuesday results: 0-1-1
BG +6 over Toledo: BG is starting to click again after a few mid-season stumbles. This team is very competitive and has had a couple of second halves recently that make you wonder what Dakich is saying to them in the lockerroom. I'll take 6 points in this rivalry game, especially with Stan Joplin on the Rockets bench.
NW/Minnesota under 124.5: The Wildcats do a good job controlling tempo and Minnesota won't force the issue. I have the Gophers scoring in the low 60's. As long as they can keep NW from keeping this too close, the under should be solid. I have it at 62-55.
Iowa +10.5 over Wisconsin: I think the pace will be slow enough that Wisky will have trouble covering double digits. Iowa can't shoot as badly as they did against Sparty, can they?
CMU/NIU under 138.5: With a 13 point spread this game is booked at 76-63. I don't see the Huskies putting up points like that and I certainly don't see the Chips with any offensive firepower. Look for NIU to protect a halftime lead and slow down the second half.
agree completely that dakich vs. joplin is a mismatch. then again, dakich vs most anyone in midmajors is a mismatch. that said, everything else favors toledo. cant trust bowling green on the road, especially since they play zero defense away from anderson arena. best of luck falcon
Results: 3-1
Thought I would get a sweep but Almanson came up pussy down the stretch for the Falcons. :cursin:
Thought I would get a sweep but Almanson came up pussy down the stretch for the Falcons. :cursin:
Thursday Picks
Thursday Picks
Wright St. +7 over Detroit: Both of these teams have been remarkably inconsistent. Detroit opens up the season with an upset of UWM when they were a 10.5 point underdog and now have lost 5 of 6. Wright St. has also shown an ability to lose games both home and away. I had the game lined at Detroit -2. Seven is a big number for a struggling Titan team to cover. Look for Detroit to cautiously protect a lead in the second half, relying on their less than stellar 62% FT shooting to clinch the win. As attractive as that sounds, I'll take the points.
UIC/YSU under 128: I have this one at 64-47 so under 128 looks good. I agree with gman that YSU is bad enough at home, but absolutely horrendous on the road.
Thursday Picks
Wright St. +7 over Detroit: Both of these teams have been remarkably inconsistent. Detroit opens up the season with an upset of UWM when they were a 10.5 point underdog and now have lost 5 of 6. Wright St. has also shown an ability to lose games both home and away. I had the game lined at Detroit -2. Seven is a big number for a struggling Titan team to cover. Look for Detroit to cautiously protect a lead in the second half, relying on their less than stellar 62% FT shooting to clinch the win. As attractive as that sounds, I'll take the points.
UIC/YSU under 128: I have this one at 64-47 so under 128 looks good. I agree with gman that YSU is bad enough at home, but absolutely horrendous on the road.
Friday Picks
Friday Picks
Cornell/Princeton over 110: Cornell has shown an ability to score some points this year. Princeton is buried at the bottom of the Ivy and I don't see them being as committed to working their offense. This number is just too low for me. Play the over.
Friday Picks
Cornell/Princeton over 110: Cornell has shown an ability to score some points this year. Princeton is buried at the bottom of the Ivy and I don't see them being as committed to working their offense. This number is just too low for me. Play the over.
Saturday Picks
Saturday Picks
Ball St. +6 over Buffalo and over 147: As long as Ball St. gets into an up tempo game, they play pretty well. When a team slows them down (like Miami) they are not nearly as effective. Not to worry when you play Buffalo. I have been fading the Bulls most of the season and it has worked out well. They just don't impress me as a team that can strap it on and go to nose-to-nose when they need to. This game should be an open court high-scoring affair. I have it at 81-78 Buffalo which makes the points and the over a play for me.
Miami +3.5 over Ohio and under 132.5: This line opened at 2.5 and has crept up to a playable 3.5. Ohio is becoming a favorite play for MAC bettors and they have been playing well except for the second half collapse against BG. But, I like Miami to control the tempo and keep this one in the 50's. If they are able to do that, 3.5 points is a bargain.
Might have a few more totals later and, of course, some Ivy League selections.
Saturday Picks
Ball St. +6 over Buffalo and over 147: As long as Ball St. gets into an up tempo game, they play pretty well. When a team slows them down (like Miami) they are not nearly as effective. Not to worry when you play Buffalo. I have been fading the Bulls most of the season and it has worked out well. They just don't impress me as a team that can strap it on and go to nose-to-nose when they need to. This game should be an open court high-scoring affair. I have it at 81-78 Buffalo which makes the points and the over a play for me.
Miami +3.5 over Ohio and under 132.5: This line opened at 2.5 and has crept up to a playable 3.5. Ohio is becoming a favorite play for MAC bettors and they have been playing well except for the second half collapse against BG. But, I like Miami to control the tempo and keep this one in the 50's. If they are able to do that, 3.5 points is a bargain.
Might have a few more totals later and, of course, some Ivy League selections.
Two Saturday Totals
Two Saturday Totals
Ohio St./Penn St. under 135.5: Penn St. can't score and Ohio St. will be content to protect the lead on the road. The book has a predicted score of 72-63 and I don't see Penn St. getting near 63 points. Penn St. has not had one of their games go over this total since January 12 and Ohio St. has played in the 60's for the most part. Matta is playing a couple of young kids at guard and will not turn them loose yet.
NIU/Toledo over 135.5: We're getting a low number because of Toledo's last two games. In the BG game, neither team shot it very well and the game before that was CMU. Every other game for Toledo has been over this number. I see this one in the 70's so take the over.
Two Saturday Totals
Ohio St./Penn St. under 135.5: Penn St. can't score and Ohio St. will be content to protect the lead on the road. The book has a predicted score of 72-63 and I don't see Penn St. getting near 63 points. Penn St. has not had one of their games go over this total since January 12 and Ohio St. has played in the 60's for the most part. Matta is playing a couple of young kids at guard and will not turn them loose yet.
NIU/Toledo over 135.5: We're getting a low number because of Toledo's last two games. In the BG game, neither team shot it very well and the game before that was CMU. Every other game for Toledo has been over this number. I see this one in the 70's so take the over.
