ncaa tourney game of year ......

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gman2

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shouldnt come as too much of a surprise. been high on these guys from day one of the tournament.

goy -- michigan state spartans (+1.5)
pending future -- michigan state to win tournament (+3500)
added future -- michigan state to win tournament (+1800)

playin with house money for the season, and the potential final four matchups dont really intrigue me a whole lot. so this is probably gonna be my last significant bet of the ncaa season. if it wins, ill be content to sit back and try and bring in those 35/1 and 18/1 shots on the spartans. most books have adjusted their tourney odds and have msu somewhere in the ballpark of +1100 or +1200. but just this morning, carib was still dealing +1800 on izzo's guys so i added some more. obviously a lot of exposure on one game and one team, but ill gladly take my chances. carolina and illinois sure as hell dont look invincible.

why so heavy on michigan state in sunday's game?

* they can match kentucky on the front line. normally the cats bully teams around down low, but davis has decided not to fu.ck around in the tourney and has given michigan state 15 pts and 11 rebounds in the tourney.

* spartans have a HUGE edge at the free throw line (+11% -- to me, anything more than a 5% difference is significant). in the tourney alone, michigan state is hitting 76% from the line compared to kentucky at 64%

* michigan state has athletic guards that will really pressure sparks and force him to put it on the floor as opposed to just catching and shooting all day

* ill take izzo over smith any day

* most of all, i just think michigan state is being totally overlooked. all the hype and press goes to carolina and illinois. no doubt the illini and heels deserve a lot of it. but michigan state is athletic (shannon brown :scared ), well-coached, capable of knocking down 3s, and tough (something needed to beat kentucky). just think msu is flying under the radar as a 5 seed.

...... if the spartans go down, ill lose a good chunk of money. it will still have been a good season, but im not expecting to end on a down note. all my other big plays this season have been successful except for the detroit collapse against csu. think michigan state wins this wire to wire.
 
Blackman

Blackman

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Big Ten gets bashed all year as being weak, and will put two teams in the final four, just always seems to be the way.

Best of luck I'm with you on this one.
 
B

boilermaker

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Feb 7, 2001
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gman , I like the Spartans as well today. Love the fact they can knock down their free trows. Thanks for the over on TCU/Mary yesterday. I rode your back on that one. Good Luck
 
R

rock2

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WOOOOOOOOWW follow your plays a lot can not remember u ever having a GOY play im on them biggg then and happpy easter glllllll peace
 
M

MIPS

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Gman i had a feelin you would be on this. In one of your other threads I said if this game was close to a Pick em I loved Mich st. Now I see you are taking them as your GOY... i love it and will be on it BIG....

GL to us
 
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KilgoreTrout

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gl gman..I always follow your posts and appreciate them..I myself must pass on this one as there is way too much consesus on msu..does anyone like ky?
 
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MIPS

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according to one site that shows the consensus #'s, there is 50.6% on mich st and 49.4% on kentucky. Overall i dont think everyone is on Mich St.
Kentucky is a very popular public team... best of luck...
 
E

ET4646

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Aug 31, 2003
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I would say according to the line movement alot of people on MSU
 
K

KilgoreTrout

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not really sure where these consesus sites get their numbers from..but, with a 2 1/2 pt swing late its obvious everyone is all over msu..gl to you guys, but msu is definitely the public play..as evidenced by the late line action
 
S

Sun Tzu

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GMan are you sure you dont want to wait before betting for a 7 page writeup from Scott as to why Michigan State cant win?
 
G

gman2

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KilgoreTrout said:
not really sure where these consesus sites get their numbers from..but, with a 2 1/2 pt swing late its obvious everyone is all over msu..gl to you guys, but msu is definitely the public play..as evidenced by the late line action
Click to expand...

said it earlier in the tourney. feel it applies here too. public/anti-public means nothing right now. this is not an 11 point chalk bet down to 8.5 or 8 where were dealing with an obscure team flying under the radar who might have some value. this is an elite 8 game between two very prominent universities.

its simple:

if michigan state is good enough, they will advance.

if they arent good enough, they will be going home.

the line -1 or -1.5 on either side means nothing.

if you came up to me and said i could bet either team with no spread involved today, id bet the same amount i already have on michigan state.

if michigan state loses today, it sure as hell aint gonna be because of an anti-public play.

if michigan state loses today, izzo wont be in the locker room consoling his guys by saying "well boys, we had a good season but it was time for us to exit the tourney because more people bet us than kentucky"

if michigan state loses....it will be because kentucky BEAT THEM.

sometimes, people make this way too complicated.

its a (28-5) (#2 seed) going against a (25-6) (#5) seed.

two good teams.

pick the winner.

im confident its the 25-6 #5 seed.
 
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