Hey lowell, I know this may sound crazy to you, but my plays are not really based on what I see fundamentally in a match-up. Statistics/trends don't mean a whole lot to me when I am making plays. They are based on a system I have developed that looks at something different, and as a matter of fact, I can tell you what my plays will be (like I did on this thread) before the lines are even released for that week.
The line doesn't mean much to me even when it is open, but I will still do a little shopping to try to keep it tight and get a "good line." Really, the line rarely comes into play, so it's just something that is more mental (hard to take -14.5 when you could have got -13.5).