NCAA Week #4 MONEYLINE WATCH/PLAYS
- Thread starter UT-Longhorn
- Start date
Ok, I watch the lines at one particular offshore book that I feel has sharper lines than most others. I compare the line they hang up, vs. the moneyline they put with it, and based on whether it is light, right on, or heavy it is a play. If it is light, I take the points, if it is heavy, ill take the ML or lay the points, if it is right on, lay off the game. I try to make sure the lines are off by 20 cents or more to make it a play, unless it is a -3.5 line or lower then 10 cents is sufficient.
0-1 last night, -12 units, just too many turnovers by NW to get the cover. On to today.
Kent +7.5
Tulsa +6
Arizona St +9
Washington +3.5 (-120)
NC State +7
Wake Forest +3 (-120)
Michigan State +3.5 (-120)
South Florida +4
Taking each of the above to win 6 units each. Dont really see any favs with heavy moneylines, looks like a dog day today. Good luck, lets have a great saturday!
Here are the public %'s on these teams listed above-
Kent 45%
Tulsa 31%
Arizona St 39%
Washington 20%
NC State 17%
Wake Forest 58%
Michigan State 24%
South Florida 32%
Kent +7.5
Tulsa +6
Arizona St +9
Washington +3.5 (-120)
NC State +7
Wake Forest +3 (-120)
Michigan State +3.5 (-120)
South Florida +4
Taking each of the above to win 6 units each. Dont really see any favs with heavy moneylines, looks like a dog day today. Good luck, lets have a great saturday!
Here are the public %'s on these teams listed above-
Kent 45%
Tulsa 31%
Arizona St 39%
Washington 20%
NC State 17%
Wake Forest 58%
Michigan State 24%
South Florida 32%
wow, all that today for basically a wash, or -0.2 :mj07:
6-5 on the day, -.02 units. Not a bad day to learn on to be honest. I learned something pretty valuable with this system. Had i gone with my saturday morning calculated plays, 2 hours prior to kick, I would have gone 6-2 on the day, and made between 15-17 units. Last week I following this same theory it went 5-1 +24 units. What ill do in the future is evaluate the plays based on the system prior to any games kicking, and leave it alone. Honestly a day "washing" to learn isnt a bad way to end, most excited about seeing a strong trend here, 3-0 first week, 5-1 last week,6-2 this weekend with the original set of plays. Hope everyone had a good saturday, now lets go win some NFL!
Today Moneyline System 6-5 -.02 unit
YTD Moneyline System (core plays) 14-5 +36.6 units
actual YTD Moneyline System plays played- 14-12 +19 units
6-5 on the day, -.02 units. Not a bad day to learn on to be honest. I learned something pretty valuable with this system. Had i gone with my saturday morning calculated plays, 2 hours prior to kick, I would have gone 6-2 on the day, and made between 15-17 units. Last week I following this same theory it went 5-1 +24 units. What ill do in the future is evaluate the plays based on the system prior to any games kicking, and leave it alone. Honestly a day "washing" to learn isnt a bad way to end, most excited about seeing a strong trend here, 3-0 first week, 5-1 last week,6-2 this weekend with the original set of plays. Hope everyone had a good saturday, now lets go win some NFL!
Today Moneyline System 6-5 -.02 unit
YTD Moneyline System (core plays) 14-5 +36.6 units
actual YTD Moneyline System plays played- 14-12 +19 units
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one other thing I just noticed that is worth adding. I might start actually betting 1 unit on each play on the moneyline. Had I done that today, it would have gone 5-3 +7.7 units on just moneylines play alone. Looks like another angle worth exploring in the future.
