Tide @ Vols Thoughts
Tide -16- and 48
Line opened at 17, dropped a half point, and has remained there all week even though money is pouring in on Bama. The perception is that Bama will kick UT's arse, but that was the same perception last year when the game was in Tuscaloosa.
Neither team is as good as last year to say the least. If Bama fans want to believe they are, they are fooling themselves. If the Vols weren't starting so many freshmen because of injuries, I would say that there is a shot of an upset; but there is not. Bama will win the game.
Here are the three things that will determine how bad this thing gets:
1 - The Satan-Count relationship
We all know by now that Satan has a great deal of respect for Count Dooley. Why? I am still trying to figure it out, but he does. I have a hard time believing Satan "takes it easy" on anyone, but if he does, it would be for The Count.
2 - Run, Run, Run?
Satan has to be pissed that his team has only rushed for 136 yards on 63 carries(2.2 yards per carry), in the past two games. I have a hard time believing that Richardson and Ingram won't get at least 20 carries each, which keeps the clock running and makes me lean to the under. Remember, the Vols have lost 3 of 4 starting DL this year.
Tauren Poole, when healthy, has been able to make some noise this year for the Vols and after a week of rest, should be ready to get a bunch of carries. If Poole cannot be effective then the sacks will continue.
3 - Secondaries, UGH
Here is where Bama could, and should, exploit Tennessee and vice versa. If Satan isn't as stubborn as I think he is, he would let Greg McElroy air it out all day long. Tennessee has so many injuries on defense, it might not matter, but the secondary is the glaring weakness on this team. Flip it to Tennessee, and you look at what Justin Hunter has started to do, he will out jump anyone in the SEC with the exception of Alshon Jeffery.
My lean would be to the under in this game just because of the history. Add the Satan-Count relationship, and I would lean to a 14-21 point Bama win. I am interested in seeing how UT comes off a bye week, and add the fact that Vegas has kept the line still with most of the action on Bama, makes me steer clear of this one.
