NCAA Week Thirteen

BobbyBlueChip

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Season Record 40-44 -46.80 units
Favorites 15-15 -18.40
Dogs 25-24 -9.10
Totals 0-2 -4.40
ML 0-1 -1.00
Halftimes 0-3 -11.00
Parlays 0-7 -2.90

Louisville -1.5 10 units

Have had a terrible year in the NCAA's and the NFL. Sometimes one goes down, but it is usually made up and then some in the other. But not this year, as both have been pathetic. Varying my units has always helped me, but this year it has been my downfall.

Not saying this to whine or for pity, just saying that the 10 units is more a reflection of my units situation than the feeling of this play. The Louisville team/coach unity situation tends to worry me some, and would lessen this play to about 4 units under a normal situation.

However, the fact that the Cardinals have let this out to the press at least means that the problems are not being swept under the rug. The coaches were put on call to make a game plan that the team can believe in (I would assume that means no more plays of Ragone rolling right and then coming back and rolling left and throwing - and then they blame the oline for holding - what else are you supposed to do when you have no idea where the defenders going to go) and that will mean more of a running attack which was effective last Thursday Night in the first half until the offense started to throw on first down every time. It will ease some of the pressure on the oline and keep an onlaught off of Ragone who was obviosuly in some pain last week. The Cardinals will have problems moving the ball against the Eagles, but the good teams have been able to run on SoMiss. It's the Army's, UAB's and the Memphis's of the world that have struggled.

Nix is expected to play on Thursday and he has been the only bright spot for the SoMiss offense, but take away the games against Memphis and Illinois, before the injury became a problem and he has been ineffective. Lousville's defense has not had any internal turmoil at all. They have played well all year and their one sore spot has been the fact that their takeaways have not kept up with the offenses giveaways. But they have blocked more punts than anyone in the nation and their return teams have been superb.

If they can avoid turnovers and leave the game up to special teams they will win this game. They should be playing with a much shorter field. And that rugby-style punting looks ridiculous when you are in your own territory, it is a highly effective in pooch situations. And if they watched the film, they have to see how easy it would be to fake out of it in short yardage. Hopefully, the coaches brought the team together this week and are unified, but even a team in disarray has a chance against the Eagles, but if both teams play to their potential, it shouldn't be close.
 

Marra

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That's a solid write up Bobby. The only thing that scares me is that the consensus is on Louisville, and the line hasn't moved. I hate using line movement as a big factor, but that scares me a bit. I also think that Louisville is going to make a couple big plays on special teams, and Ragone will be out to renew his status as a 1st round pick after that Cincy disgrace.

GLTA
 

lawtchan

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BBC

Congrats on dime play. Great comback for the birds. I had USM for 1 unit and under for 2 units.
Thought I was toast on under with overtime.

I'll take the .9 units


:)
 

BobbyBlueChip

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Thx for the notes. Thought I had the game capped, but when it came down to it, the personal fouls after the punt return and the interception return is what did the Eagles in. Somebody owed me a break and I think I got one tonight.

Mike,
Didn't see your question before the game, but I wasn't that strong on L'ville, it's just that if I want to get a bankroll that I can work with to get back to even (what a crappy position to be in), I've got to take some shots or get another bankroll. This was one of the two games I like most this weekend.

Marra,
Didn't think anyone else used the White Sox avatar, I thought I was the only one. Konerko signed today for 3 years :) and am waiting to hear your ASU thoughts. It's my favorite line for Saturday in the games that I have looked at.

lawtchan,
Glad you hit the under, the fact that you had to sweat at all is ridiculous. Counting overtime scoring in totals (or in spreads for that matter) is one of the most asinine rules in a sportsbook. Liked the under as you can see in my writeup, but I can't diversify too much right now.

GL2all this weekend
 

Fluk

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Congrats Bobby - yeah definitely nice to get a break like this after that game Tuesday night (if you were on Miami).

Big win, good luck this weekend.

Fluk
 

BobbyBlueChip

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Duke +16.5 5 units

Duke has played much better than expected this year going 7-3 against the number yet they still have not gotten the elusive ACC victory to end a 23-game stretch without one. Although the losses have piled up, Duke has been a part of some near misses this year against Clemson, NC State and Virginia. The team has not learned how to win, but it is playing teams tough. They have had a week off to refocus and based on quotes, the team still has much to prove.

GaTech could have made it's season with a win over Florida State, but they also came up short. They basically shut down a Florida State offense missing Jones and playing a QB who's just not ready for this level. The papers and the fans are already starting to look to the recruiting season, but if this season is talked about, the focus is the game in two weeks against rival Georgia.

Duke is in the perfect sandwich spot with much to play for and they have had success against everybody they've played this year on the ground and they've also had success stopping their opposition's running game. Gailey has favored the run throughout this year and something tells me that he will get lulled into a field position, smash-mouth game and Duke should have an opportunity for a win but will probably fall short. But that's ok, UNC's on deck.
 

BobbyBlueChip

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thx, gardenweasel, I think writeups are overrated, I just like people to know where I stand so if i'm missing something they let me know.

Texas -6 5 units

I see the Red Raiders are on the premier game this week on ABC. I haven't been able to capitalize on the Red Raiders great ATS numbers over the past couple of years (52-35-2 since 1997) due mostly to the fact that every time that their in a game that's worthy of national TV coverage (regular season or bowls), they just don't play up to the hype. EVERY TIME. They've had several occasions over the past 10 years to grab a victory over the last 10 years and they can't get it done.

The most important stat in this game is turnover ration. TT is -12 and UT is +9. When you run the ball only to keep the defense off balance and put the ball up as much as the Red Raiders, your expectation is to have a negative TO margin. Add into that fact that Texas' backers have better closing speed than anyone that Tech has played this year except for, arguably, Ohio State and Kingsbury is going to have a rough day. The Longhorns will win the TO battle. And with that in mind, the 6 points, even on the road, seems light.

Hook'em
 

BobbyBlueChip

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From Mel Kiper's page.

Texas Tech QB Kliff Kingsbury has thrown for nearly 4,000 yards and has tossed 35 TDs.
Texas has won the past three meetings by a combined score of 129-31. But in 1998, the Red Raiders pulled out a 42-35 victory in Lubbock, where they are extremely dangerous.

This season, the Red Raiders have struggled with elite opposition. In fact, their four losses have come to teams with a combined record of 34-9. That group includes Ohio State, which could be playing for the national championship. Of their seven victories, only one has been against a team with a winning record (Texas A&M, 48-47 in overtime). The combined record of the seven teams they've defeated is 28-41.
 

BobbyBlueChip

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Arizona State +14.5 10 units

USC is rolling right now having scored 41,44,49 in their past three games against Washington, Oregon, and Stanford. They come in taking on an Arizona State team that has been scorched in their last two for 44 and 49 against Washington State and Cal. Injuries have started to hamper the Devils as well as their already thin depth will be hurting even more on the defensive line and the linebacker units. This has the smell of a blowout.

Maybe it's just me but California kids always seem soft, Pete Carroll's teams have also always seemed soft and for all the press has to say about how focused this team is, I ,for the life of me, can't remember when a Pete Carroll team was focused. They have UCLA and ND on deck and they are in the top 10. Add to the fact that this is homecoming week and I'm sure that they've heard about their return to glory for the better part of the week. To ask them to put 40 points on the board for the 4th straight week is ludicrous. 14.5 points against a team who has the potential to score as many points as ASU is just too much, IMHO.
 
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