NCAABB Picks (11/28-12/4), YTD: 7-4, +2.6 units

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BGFalcon

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Monday:

UIC +2 over Georgia Southern: A little bit of a tough spot for UIC with all the traveling they have done and being somewhat banged up. But, Smedley's injury got Mayo into the starting lineup and he really runs the show. UIC should be able to bang inside with Poole, Bowe, and Stefanov (broken nose didn't stop him against GT) and control the boards. GS isn't real strong defensively and that should allow UIC to get some easy baskets inside.
 
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BGFalcon

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Monday results: 0-1, -1.1 units (third game in 3 days that the team I'm on has been outscored by 20 in the second half).
 
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BGFalcon

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Wednesday Pick

Wednesday Pick

Iowa -4 over NC State: Iowa has already beaten Kentucky way from home. They gave Texas a great game before losing at the end and now get to host NC State who really hasn't been tested this year. Going into Iowa City won't be easy especially since Iowa has the potential to one of the best teams in the Big Ten. In this atmosphere (Big 10/ACC Challenge) home court is probably worth 4 points. That would mean Iowa and NC State are even on a neutral floor. I don't buy it.
 
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BGFalcon

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Friday Pick

Friday Pick

Iowa/Fairfield under 129: Fairfield will struggle to get 50 against Iowa's defense which means Iowa will need to get 80 to go over. I don't see their subs scoring that much in what should be a blowout. My total is 123.
 
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BGFalcon

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Early Saturday Pick

Early Saturday Pick

Cleveland St. +16.5 over Kent St. and under 141: Numbers plays. I have the total at 135 so under 141 is a play. This correlates well with +16.5. I don't see Kent getting much more than 72 or 73 against the Vikes defense, which means CSU only has to get 57 to cover. They managed to get 55 against UNC so I like their chances against Kent. Call it 73-62, Flashes.
 
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BGFalcon

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Michigan +3 over Notre Dame: I like this Michigan team. They have good balance and depth and play hard. We are getting some line value because they haven't been great on the road and didn't play particularly well at Boston University. Notre Dame is not terrible but the loss of Chris Thomas hurts them. This game was Michigan -1.5 at Michigan last year which means Notre Dame was 1.5 points better on a neutral floor. Even if we assume home court for ND is worth 5 points, this year's line is saying Michigan is 2 points better on a neutral floor. That is only 3 points difference from last year. When you consider the players who return for Michigan this year vs. ND's returning players, I'll take my chances with the Wolverines and the 3 points.
 
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BGFalcon

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YSU +4 (1st half) over Marshall: Penguins have started fast in their last two games against Kent St. and Akron. I'm betting this trend continues against Marshall. Neither team is shooting well which should keep this one close, at least for a while.

I also agree with Spang on the under in the Miami game. I grabbed a 122.5 but those are long gone. Another game to keep an eye on is the Gonzaga/Washington game. The line opened at 3 and is now at 5.5. If it gets to six I like the Zags and the points.
 
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