ncaaf wk4 plays

Cie

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16-15 -4.19U ytd
7-4 +3.56U lw

Some juicy opportunities on the board. I can already tell I'm gonna play less games this week.


Leans:

Ball St +30.5
Zona St +12.5
Stan -7
Oreg +7
Mem -3
USF +13.5
Wyo +6
Arky +15.5

Ohio +20.5
BG +15.5

GL:weed:
 
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blaster

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CIE,
YOU ARE NOT ONE TO WASTE TIME. LIKE IT!
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEK.

BLASTER
 

Cie

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Played:

Ark St -1 (108) x2




USF no longer a possible play due to inj. Forgot to post lean to Arky +15.5.

GL:weed:
 

JCoverS

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Like that Arkansas lean, Cie. Last week, as a favorite, was not the right role for them. IMO, they should be pointspread gold this year as an underdog. Especially, when catching double digits, as they are here. They will trade points with teams all year long. Defense is atrocious, though. Now that he finally has Mallett at QB, Petrino has brought his ol' Louisville scores to Fayetteville.

-JC
 
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Cie

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I am holding off before booking some of these, but posting now b/c unsure if I'll be available the rest of the week. I played Ark St -1 (-108) early and am buying off of the play now with Troy +3 (-118)


Plays:

S Carolina +4 (-108) x1 Rushing dog at home in primetime. I am not sold on Snead, who is not as erratic as SC QB Garcia, but is liable to produce a couple of turnovers under pressure. Cocks have played better competition than Miss, but are pretty banged up at OL, DT and CB. Small play.

Wyoming +4 (-115) x1 1st road test for UNLV and their thin OL. UNLV off of a nailbiter over Hawai'i, and have revenge game on deck @ Nevada. Good line value imo, as Wyo was a 7 point dog in a close game at UNLV LY.

Oregon +5 (-108) x2 2nd straight on road for Cal, which is banged up a bit at WR/TE and are off of a double digit OOC win that the team took seriously. USC is on deck for Cal. Oregon looking better since midway through Purdue win.

Arky +18 (-110) x3 This is the 1st test vs a sound passing attack for Bama defense. VT was (and remain) out of synch offensively, and Bama's 2 other opponents aren't much to speak of. Julio Jones is slightly banged up, and I am not convinced of quality of the Bama OL. Arky has had this one cirlced after the beatdown suffered in this game last year.

USF +14.5 x2 Obvious letdown spot for FSU. USF has had this matchup circled. It was against Nobody U, but it appears the USF backup QB played well last week in relief. Like his predecessor, he presents a run/pass threat that can be an X-factor.

Ball St +33.5 (-105) x2 This is Aub's 4th straight home game, so complacency becomes an issue imo. Ball State OL blows, but Auburn is off of a big win, and have Vols on deck.

Houston Pick x1 TT is off of a big loss to a rival. The world seems to be backing them this week. Home field is big, as Hou offense rolls here and Cougs are 6-1 here vs OOC last 3 yrs including 1-0 vs BCS opponents. I like the familiarity with TT offense that the Hou staff has and I rank HOus D above Tech's.

Looking at :

ASU +11 Banged up UGA is off of a conference win with LSU on deck. Good time for ASU to sneak in and play 'em tight. Was also thinking ASU under 54 in this one.

Va Tech un 47.5 Both teams off big wins. This is the best D Miami has seen this season. May see an offensive lull early. VT O is not scaring anyone, due, in part, to poor use of Taylor.

Nevada - 1st road game for young Mizz QB.

Stanford - Bad spot for Wash (off USC win w/ ND on deck) vs foe w/ solid OL play.

I scratched UL-L +28 (at least for now)because they left Baton Rouge banged up, and will be without the anchor of their fairly impressive OL.
Thinking of backing "scrappy" Idaho , but am concerned about their horrific road record.

Also thinking about Memphis over banged up Marshall.





GL:weed:
 
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Irish

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Cie,
GL this weekend... looks like you are runnning with a lot of Dogs. Head to head on a few but go get em

Cheers
Irish
 

taoist

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Plays:

S Carolina +4 (-108) x1 Rushing dog at home in primetime. I am not sold on Snead, who is not as erratic as SC QB Garcia, but is liable to produce a couple of turnovers under pressure. Cocks have played better competition than Miss, but are pretty banged up at OL, DT and CB. Small play.




...trust your gut, baby. ;)
 

tulah

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So Cal
I'll be on a few of those plays as well...

I Like Ark, and Houston this week...

As always good luck this week
 

JCoverS

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Looks like Cie Grant may be out of pocket (per his earlier post). I always look for his thread to see his take on things and I'm sure others do, as well. Therefore, this deserves a bump for a routinely solid CFB 'capper.

-JC
 

Cie

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Thanks JC.

Looking to add Ohio. Vols may suffer an emotional lull from the Gator game last week, especially given that Auburn, Georgia, and Bama are on deck. Plus, with players often taking their emotional lead from the HC, all the yapping b/w Kiffin and Meyer this week speaks volumes of the emotional state of those teams this week.

I lean to Kentucky as well. Simply put, Kentucky is better than "we" think and Florida is worse. As I indicated last week, Gators are not the same offensively. Sure, there is plenty of speed, but Meyer's right hand man is gone, and so are Murphy and Harvin;) Same as the above game, I see no way they are up for this one after the media circus last week and with the continuation of the feud b/w the HC's this week.

Poon has me looking at Neb under. I have been eyeballing UL-L all week, but key injuries on the OL have scared me off to this point. Under may be the ticket, but UL-L + 4 TDs vs. emotionally depleted Nebraska with Mizzou on deck remains on my radar. Especially due to the beating Mizzou put on the Huskers LY.

Gonna add some plays shortly. GLTA:weed:
 

JCoverS

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As I stated earlier, LOVE the Hogs to cover that big number. Agree about the questionable quality of Bama's wins thus far. VT has not impressed. As long as the OL gives Mallett some time, he and Petrino's offense will do damage. Also, believe Arkansas D will show better than they did against the Bulldogs. They were mainly exposed after their defensive leader Franklin was tossed LW. Also, McElroy is still relatively green and for some reason through just three games people no long feel their QB play is a question mark? I'm alongside you as not being sold on the Tide, just yet. From my perspective, this one should be a relatively close contest and I'll probably nibble at the +600 ML, too.

Also, after further review (thanks to your earlier mention), I'll be on the USF Bulls with ya. Liked all of your reasonings and watched some highlights on BJ Daniels. He looks very capable of filling in for Grothe in the spread attack. He's also going back to his hometown of Tallahassee, so he might be just as comfortable with the surroundings, as he is pressured. This team has wanted a shot at their big brother (FSU) for years, now. Grothe going down LW, won't kill that desire to win here...hell, it may even strengthen it because they will want to win it for their fallen signal caller. Just have to think this line has been an over-reaction to FSU's easy BYU victory and the loss of Grothe. FSU won against the Mormons LW, because of one thing..."speed kills." BYU had no chance to match it. USF, on the other hand, CAN match it...Leavitt has been recruiting Florida athletes for years, while building a solid and successful program. FSU already overlooked one in-state "little brother" team in Week 2. They could easily do it again, especially after knowing USF is without their starting QB. Either way, I believe the Bulls will hang throughout...another nibble at the ML +425 here.

Wishing you all the best on your plays this week, Cie Grant. I'll probably follow you on a few more, but really liking these two.

-JC
 
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