ncaaf wk9

[Cie]

37-39 -6.88u ytd
2-3 last week
20-13 last 4 weeks


Horrible loss on NW last week cost me a 4.4u swing!


This week system spit out a ton of favs, which is quirte rare....

SMU -7.5 (this goes against 57% trend to back home dog (tulane) that won outright as road dog LW)
Neb -7
Iowa -6.5
Mich -1.5 (Off of 2 losses and bye, should be ready to roll)
Ole Miss +7 (OL health is a concern)
WF +5 (Ugly looking play)
Kentucky
Kansas (QB health concerns)
Cincy (QB health concerns)

Gut leans:

Kansas St +6
Col +24:facepalm:
Indy +3


GL:weed:

 

[joefrog91]

I've "glanced" at that Indy play myself. Will research it more later this week to see if it's a play or not. Good luck!

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

holy shit. . . these look like my plays

 

[Cie]

holy shit. . . these look like my plays

Awesome, square to the power of 2:0074

 

[Cie]

Played:

Florida +3 (-105)


Everyone is off of the Gator wagon including their own fans. Tebow is gone, and many are surprised that the offense took a step back with Brantley at QB:mj07: :mj07: 5 major coaching staff losses the past 2 seasons. Recruits are calling their visits boring. They can't even snap the ball properly 8 weeks into the season. Ask anyone and they'll tell you the mighty gators are imploding!!!

Gators are looking to break a losing streak off of the bye. The D will no doubt be ready this weekend, plus they get Rainey back and Demps has had another 2 weeks to recover. Gators by 10 over Dawgs, who are all of a sudden considered world-beaters by the masses Double play

 

[Betone]

Played:

Florida +3 (-105)


Everyone is off of the Gator wagon including their own fans. Tebow is gone, and many are surprised that the offense took a step back with Brantley at QB:mj07: :mj07: 5 major coaching staff losses the past 2 seasons. Recruits are calling their visits boring. The gators can't even snap the ball properly 8 weeks into the season. Ask anyone and they'll tell you the gators are imploding!!!

The Gators are looking to break a losing streak off of the bye. The FLa D will no doubt be ready this weekend, plus the Gators get Rainey back and Demps has had another 2 weeks to recover. Gators by 10 over Dawgs, who are all of a sudden considered world-beaters by the masses

Good write up, and I circled that line this morning. Florida +3 is a gift. FWIW GL

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Recruits are calling their visits boring.

Really? They're picking off ND's commits just like they did in their glory years

 

[#cruncher]

Not to take anything away from Georgia but that final with Ky was a little deceiving. Ga had a 100yd kickoff return plus Ky turned the ball over like Ga did last year when these 2 met. Ky had 9 men in the box at times and still couldn't stop them from runnning...:scared The rushing yardage won't come as easy against the Gators. Interesting card, good luck this week...:toast:

 

[Cie]

Really? They're picking off ND's commits just like they did in their glory years

Imagine that :mj07:

 

[tulah]

I was thinking Fla would be favored but I guess the public is down on them this season...
I already unloaded on them so reading ur thread has me feeling really good about the play....

GL General

 

[AR182]

Good info Cie....Good luck this week....

 

[Cie]

thanks, gents....



Played these:

Fla +3 (double)
Duke +14 Nice opportunity to fade Navy off of ND whipping. Duke performed better than 35 points allowed vs Army option attack earlier this season. The D held Army to 3.8ypc, but 5 turnovers killed them in that one.

I widdled down my leans slightly.....


USC +7 Ball can be moved against Oregon. SC had extra week to prepare. This is USC game of the year.
Kansas +19 Iowa State fade. Not that ISU is the type of team that should be looking ahead, but they have Nebraska on deck, so this is a classic sandwich spot.
WF +5.5 Good opportunity for an outright win for WF. WF has has performed poorly this season when outclassed, but they are not outclassed here by any means. MD has Miami on deck, and were up bigtime for their win last week. WF D is porous, but MD is no offensivve juggernaut.
Ole Miss +7 Miss improving and Masoli settling in. Miss can move the ball vs Auburn. Aub could have lost 5 games this year. They can easily lose this one on the road, particularly given the string of tight games that they have played en route to their current position atop the BCS standings.
Indy +3 NW hit the road after they lost a late lead in a big game last week . Very profitable angle for me over the years. Plus, Penn St on deck for NW...
Kan St +5 Opportunity to fade Okie St on the road off of their 1st loss of the season. Ranked Baylor and Texas are on deck. Nice spot for upset here. Need to look into it a bit further though.


These favs strongly appeal to me:

Iowa -6.5
Texas -7
Neb -7 (-115)


GL:weed:

 

[Cie]

More on FLorida:

I keep reading that UGA has turned around their season. Why is that?

Let's look into their 3 game winning streak

UGA caught the Vols the week after the Vols come-from-ahead los to LSU. Perfect spot for a Vol emotional letdown.

UGA whipped Vandy at home. Who hasn't?

UGA won by 10 over Kentucky last week despite being dominated on both sides of the ball. Kentucky had 4 turnovers and allowed a 100 yd KO return.

Kentucky outgained UGA 423 to 290 and held UGA to 13 first downs. Can you say misleading final?

GL:weed:

 

[Cie]

Kentucky is interesting this week off of a misleading final in a loss to UGA. Cats have been a cash cow ATS, despite multiple hard luck SU losses. 7 turnovers cost them a pair of wins, as they otherwise outperformed both UGA(4TO) and Ole Miss(3TO).

Miss St ground game is a concern, as is the poor showing vs UAB last week in that it affects value. Making it worse is that the poor showing last week was expected based on hangover from Florida win.

I see the Cats O as a good matchup against this Miss St D behind Hartline. Cats will have to throw to win, so it works out that 3 WR targets (Cobb, King and Mathews) practiced today. I read that Locke did not practice today, but a frosh (Sanders) showed playmaking ability as a runner and receiver out of the backfield last week.

Kentucky seems to have regrouped following the UGA loss, which set them back to 4-4. The team has a new goal of 8 wins, and they realize Miss St is the biggest hurdle they face. This game is obviously much bigger for Kentucky than Miss St, who come in at 6-2. Also of note is that Kentucky responded with a win over SC last time they faced possibility of falling below .500

Definite play on Cats. Also qualifies under my system this week.....

 

[Irish]

Cie

Good luck this weekend. I like Michigan and head to head on org/USC. GL on florida but I lean Georgia. Week in and out they are looking stronger and they just don't like Florida so I think richt saves his job on it.

Cheers
Irish

 

[the addict]

Cie

Good luck this weekend. I like Michigan and head to head on org/USC. GL on florida but I lean Georgia. Week in and out they are looking stronger and they just don't like Florida so I think richt saves his job on it.

Cheers
Irish

SAY IT AINT SO....CIE, and now Irish, two of the better and more knowledgable guyys on this site both against my PSU boys.

I hate bettin with my heart, but am tempted too take them now that it is up at a fieldgoal. prolly no bet, but god i hate seeing both you against my team!!!

good luck this week cie

 

[Cie]

Played all of my leans sans Indy for now...

Duke+14 -115
fla+3 -108 double
Wf+5.5 -105
kan+18 -105
Kan st +5
USC+7
Tex-7 -115
miss+7 +100
Kentucky +7 -120

Gl:weed:

 

[Master Capper]

Good Luck Cie, Im still looking at that Florida game. With Rainey and Demps back, you would think the Gators offense is alot more explosive.

 

[Cie]

Thx dudes.



Addict- Nothing to worry about, sir. I am hitting only half of my plays. Even when I was posting 57% to 61% winners about 3-4 yes ago, I always sucked picking favs. Good luck today, buddy:toast:

 

[Cie]

Forgot Kentucky +7 bght half