ncaafb week 1

[Cie]

I was going to avoid posting my ncaafb plays this season, but realized that was a lame idea based mostly on the frustration of my poor performance last season. Anyway, no week 1 plays yet, but needed to start my week 1 thread so I could post my season win totals plays.

I played 2 season win totals so far, and am looking at 2 others:

Bama un9 +105 x2.5
ND ov9 +110 x2.5


GL dudes:weed:


Posted record at MJs:
2006 67-55 +18.67U
2006 bowls 22-15 +8.11U
2007 87-60 +53.33U
2007 bowls 17-12 +3.75U
2008 81-74 -6.2U
2008 Bowls 17-12 +3.55U

291-228 (56.06%) +81.21U

 

[thebsmanofkent]

GL to you this year Cie, I'm sure you'll bounce
back strong. Only about a month away!

:00hour

 

[AR182]

hey cie...

glad to see that you are posting your plays this year...the forum wouldn't be the same without you.....

i don't do well with these type of plays...but here is my opinion on your 2 plays...

i have read that bama has had b2b steller recruiting classes & is very deep at most positions....& looking at their schedule (no fla.), i am not sure that they will lose 4 games.... although i do think they will lose to vt, miss.,& lsu...but not sure where the other loss will come from...

i think notre dame can have a very good record this year, provided they will be able to run the ball...don't think they will be able to beat good teams by just passing the ball.....looking at their schedule...i see 3 problem games....opening game at home to nevada (think they will be very good this year), home to usc (usc will be playing at calif. the previous week...& think nd has a very good shot at beating usc), & at pitt(who plays w. virginia the following week)......i see nd having no worse than a 10-2 record (are you happy bbc)....

so i think you will do no worse than split your bets...but of course i will be rootng both bets to come in...

good luck this season....

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

hey cie...

glad to see that you are posting your plays this year...the forum wouldn't be the same without you.....

i don't do well with these type of plays...but here is my opinion on your 2 plays...

i have read that bama has had b2b steller recruiting classes & is very deep at most positions....& looking at their schedule (no fla.), i am not sure that they will lose 4 games.... although i do think they will lose to vt, miss.,& lsu...but not sure where the other loss will come from...

i think notre dame can have a very good record this year, provided they will be able to run the ball...don't think they will be able to beat good teams by just passing the ball.....looking at their schedule...i see 3 problem games....opening game at home to nevada (think they will be very good this year), home to usc (usc will be playing at calif. the previous week...& think nd has a very good shot at beating usc), & at pitt(who plays w. virginia the following week)......i see nd having no worse than a 10-2 record (are you happy bbc)....

so i think you will do no worse than split your bets...but of course i will be rootng both bets to come in...

good luck this season....

Nevada scares the shit out of me and MSU is going to be a battle. If not this year for $C, it's not gonna happen, but I think they lose those two - slightly concerned about Pitt, but . . . .it's not a tough venue.

Bama's lacking in experience on the offensive side of the ball and all their talent doesn't go unless they find a leader. Every one of those SEC games (outside of Arkansas) is gonna be tight.

 

[Cie]

Bama's lacking in experience on the offensive side of the ball and all their talent doesn't go unless they find a leader. Every one of those SEC games (outside of Arkansas) is gonna be tight.

Exactly. The OL is a big step down from last season, and QB will be an issue imo. I hear that Wilson's leadership, although not highly publicized, will be missed. The SECW will be a dog fight this season, and IMO Bama is not nearly as good as as the talking heads would have you think.

Also, I see Bama as getting incredible hype under Saban, so I'm playing against that. The perception of Nick Saban as the 'messiah' is nonsensical. Do not get me wrong, as a season-ticket holder, I would replace Miles with Saban today. But, the reality is Saban has won more than 9 games in the regular season only 2 times in his career. Last season was the perfect storm for Bama with an excellent combination of talent and experience at OL, D and QB. The only other time he won more than 9 was LSU's Title year in '03. That was special team. In fact, nealry the entrire defense and OL still play in the NFL. The QB (Matt Mauck) was a heady veteran, who spent 3-4 seasons as a backup in the NFL as well. This season, Bama has the defense, but nothing else required to run away with the SEC West.

 

[Cie]

hey cie...

glad to see that you are posting your plays this year...the forum wouldn't be the same without you.....

i don't do well with these type of plays...but here is my opinion on your 2 plays...

i have read that bama has had b2b steller recruiting classes & is very deep at most positions....& looking at their schedule (no fla.), i am not sure that they will lose 4 games.... although i do think they will lose to vt, miss.,& lsu...but not sure where the other loss will come from...

i think notre dame can have a very good record this year, provided they will be able to run the ball...don't think they will be able to beat good teams by just passing the ball.....looking at their schedule...i see 3 problem games....opening game at home to nevada (think they will be very good this year), home to usc (usc will be playing at calif. the previous week...& think nd has a very good shot at beating usc), & at pitt(who plays w. virginia the following week)......i see nd having no worse than a 10-2 record (are you happy bbc)....

so i think you will do no worse than split your bets...but of course i will be rootng both bets to come in...

good luck this season....

Nice analysis, A. No doubt that Bama has a favorable SEC schedule. I look for experience @ QB/OL and a favorable schedule to play an over for a season win total. I think ND qualifies. Taking into account opponent scheduling (as you pointed out), and that ND has more talent than at least 10 opponents, I have them no worse than 9-3.

 

[CWood97]

Glad to see you will be posting again this year Cie. Love the ND play. GL

 

[blaster]

CIE,
LOOK FORWARD TO YOUR POSTS THIS COMING YEAR. ALWAYS LOOK TO SEE IF WE ARE ON THE SAME PAGE.

GL, BLASTER

 

[dawgball]

i have read that bama has had b2b steller recruiting classes & is very deep at most positions....& looking at their schedule (no fla. or uga), i am not sure that they will lose 4 games.... although i do think they will lose to vt, miss.,& lsu...but not sure where the other loss will come from...

Corrected your post for you.

 

[kegray1]

i have read that bama has had b2b steller recruiting classes & is very deep at most positions....& looking at their schedule (no fla.), i am not sure that they will lose 4 games.... although i do think they will lose to vt, miss.,& lsu...but not sure where the other loss will come from...

Not sure where a 4th loss would come from either based on their schedule.
As for the losses in question(VT,Miss,LSU).
Lines for Big Games are up at some sites:

Alabama (+3.5) vs Ole Miss
Alabama (-3.5) vs LSU
Also:
Alabama(-5) vs Auburn

If Alabama goes 2-1 in these 3 then they will not lose 4.

No line out on VT game that I have seen.

 

[Cie]

Not sure where a 4th loss would come from either based on their schedule.
As for the losses in question(VT,Miss,LSU).
Lines for Big Games are up at some sites:

Alabama (+3.5) vs Ole Miss
Alabama (-3.5) vs LSU
Also:
Alabama(-5) vs Auburn

If Alabama goes 2-1 in these 3 then they will not lose 4.

No line out on VT game that I have seen.

IMO, the following games are all losable. Kentucky and Miss St are on the list. All road games are losable, particularly when you have inexperience at QB.

@ Kentucky First true roadie of the season for a new QB. Break for Bama as Cats play Fla previous week.

South Carolina A 4-2 Bama should avenge the L to Ole Miss, although the possibility of a hangover after Ole Miss is possible.

Vols A weary 5-2 Bama, playing their 8th game in as many weeks, could easily overlook a rested Tennessee with a bye week on deck and an eye on LSU in 2 weeks. Upset alert!!!!

@MSU LSU hangover? 1st road game in over 1 month.

Auburn Biggest game of year for new staff at Aub.

 

[Mr. Poon]

Cie - like em. Jump on that UCLA one too.

You coming up the last weekend of August still right? Will be good to meet up with you and share some drinks. Obviously not the atmosphere of a good college ball tailgate, but Chicago in the summer isn't bad.

 

[#cruncher]

IMO, the following games are all losable. Kentucky and Miss St are on the list. All road games are losable, particularly when you have inexperience at QB.

@ Kentucky First true roadie of the season for a new QB. Break for Bama as Cats play Fla previous week.

South Carolina A 4-2 Bama should avenge the L to Ole Miss, although the possibility of a hangover after Ole Miss is possible.

Vols A weary 5-2 Bama, playing their 8th game in as many weeks, could easily overlook a rested Tennessee with a bye week on deck and an eye on LSU in 2 weeks. Upset alert!!!!

@MSU LSU hangover? 1st road game in over 1 month.

Auburn Biggest game of year for new staff at Aub.

Some good stuff Cie...I need to start thinking a little more like this.

 

[Cie]

For now, this looks like my only play for the week of 9/3/09. Of course, there are still plenty of games I want to look at.

New Mexico +13.5 Lobo QB back from injury and apparently played well in Spring game, albeit vs. a depleted Lobo D. The new offensive scheme should provide spark. There is some talent at OL, but WRs concern me. Either way, TAMU has poor line play offensively and the pass defense, which some think was strength last season, is little more than a mirage. It seems that teams didn't need to throw on Aggies because they were so soft vs. the run. Teams with so many questions and this poor of a defense have no business laying 2 TDs.

I will hope to get +14, but will play at +13 or higher for 2 units.

 

[Cie]

You coming up the last weekend of August still right? Will be good to meet up with you and share some drinks.

Yes sir, still coming. I'm gonna hit Cubs v. Mets Friday and Saturday afternoon. I will be trying to meet with BBC for beverages before one of the ball games, and look forward to meeting up with you as well. I'll get your email from Jack and contact you later this month.

 

[Cie]

NCSU -3 [-115] Great numbers last season from the frosh wolfpack qb, and a solid cast of athletes return. OL rated low in the conference in all publications I've read, but at least the experience is there. Defensively, the front still looks solid despite the loss of their best player to a car wreck, but ?? abound in the secondary. South Carolina has questions at QB, although I witnessed Garcia do some nice things last season vs LSU. Cocks have a solid core of veterans at safety and LB, but will be on the road with an erratic QB. Cocks have a GOY-type showdown at home vs. UGA the following Saturday, thus lookahead potential exists. Played for 2 units.

GL:weed:

 

[Irish]

GL this season Cie

Cheers
Irish

 

[Woodson]

Love the NCSU play Cie!

 

[Cie]

Possible ugly dog plays:

SDSU +17.5
Toledo +12
Ohio +4, although the under here -- as pointed out by AR182 -- is looking mighty appealing to me.
North Texas +17.5:scared


GL:weed:

 

[#cruncher]

Possible ugly dog plays:

SDSU +17.5
Toledo +12
Ohio +4, although the under here -- as pointed out by AR182 -- is looking mighty appealing to me.
North Texas +17.5:scared


GL:weed:

Was kinda looking at N Texas myself Cie...