NCU - ques. on steam plays

[wondo]

I did check your original explanation but didn't come across the answer --

what are the chances of these plays going one way during the early part of the week, and the opposite during the later part (or even the same day)?

does this happen, and if so, how do you account for it?

thanks
wondo

[This message has been edited by wondo (edited 09-20-2001).]

 

[Never Caught Up]

Chances are the same as any other plays doing the same thing. I haven't found anything majical about these plays other than they seem to grind out a profit if you play them all and if you can get in step with the streaks you can maximize the profits. I use a comparison of 7 over 21 day moving averages of return on risk to step up my units and step them down. I don't want to get into trying to explain that, but those with mathamatics or stock trading backgrounds will know what I mean.

In football I try to play them all for 1 unit each before the lines move. There are so many of them you can't (at least I can't) tie up all my BR by betting more than one unit on each one. Don't get me wrong . . . they can have wipeout weeks as well. It's a marathon . . . not a sprint.

In college basketball the first few weeks are normally on fire . . . then they tend to cool off. There is more money to be made the first few weeks of college basketball than any other time of the year.

 

[Never Caught Up]

The weekday/weekend thing I wrote about was for baseball only. SInce football for the most part is weekend only it couldn't apply. In recent weeks even our baseball theory isn't holding up very well. I posted the logs by day of the week. You can see how they are performing. There are a couple of days that appear to stand out, but who knows what they will do next week. I sure don't. Good luck. Hope you find them helpful, but if not at least it gives us something to talk about.

Beats talking about Bonds 64th homer

since I need HOU.

 

[wondo]

Thanks for the response. My original message was very poorly written and I didn't communicate the question I intended to....

In your method of following the quick, across the board, line movements, will you ever see a steam play generated by the line moving in a given direction, only to later see the opposite play generated by an opposing line movement -- both plays generated by the same 'steam' method & criteria?

For example, you have the Dallas under 35 as a pending play. What do you do if the line moves the opposite direction before sunday, and in doing so, meets all your criteria to qualify as a steam play for the over?

Does this ever happen?

thanks
wondo

 

[Never Caught Up]

Oh yeah. That happens fairly often. I think it has happened at least once already this year. You are right about it being near key numbers as well. I just look at each one as a seperate play and log it that way at the line the play was generated at. I think it is etirely possible that the first plays are intended to drive a line in one direction so they can come in late and hammer the other side. When I see that happen I sometimes get on the last move for more than the first. Just depends.