NCU's MLB Plays
- Thread starter Never Caught Up
- Start date
As noted in my plays above it is obvious I like ARI/COL Under 10 as this evening's best bet. I know that goes opposite of TV whom I respect greatly, but here is my justification in this play.
It is more common to find the number in Colorado home games at around 13 or 14. Linemakers have lowered the total tonight significantly from the norm. I always approach out of normal lines with caution and look for the reasons why. One big reason for this lower line is Randy Johnson and his 2.44 ERA.
Additionally, consider these stats in Colorado games. The under is 136-89 (60%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 years. The under is also 38-20 (76%) in the month of September over the past 3 years. The Rockies have played under in 9 of their last 10 overall and 7 of their last 8 at home.
Randy Johnson has gone under in 12 of his last 16 starts in the month of September.
Coors Field has developed a reputation for being a hitters park that may be a bit bigger than the reality . . . at least in the minds of bettors . . . and the oddsmakers will factor that public bias into their lines creating better value in general on the under. Betting under 10 at Coors Field is hard to do. The linemaker knows and expects that. Public money should easily come in on the over later this evening. I want to be on the opposite side of public money.
That's why I consider COL UNDER 10 @ even money as today's best bet.
[This message has been edited by Never Caught Up (edited 09-17-2001).]
It is more common to find the number in Colorado home games at around 13 or 14. Linemakers have lowered the total tonight significantly from the norm. I always approach out of normal lines with caution and look for the reasons why. One big reason for this lower line is Randy Johnson and his 2.44 ERA.
Additionally, consider these stats in Colorado games. The under is 136-89 (60%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 years. The under is also 38-20 (76%) in the month of September over the past 3 years. The Rockies have played under in 9 of their last 10 overall and 7 of their last 8 at home.
Randy Johnson has gone under in 12 of his last 16 starts in the month of September.
Coors Field has developed a reputation for being a hitters park that may be a bit bigger than the reality . . . at least in the minds of bettors . . . and the oddsmakers will factor that public bias into their lines creating better value in general on the under. Betting under 10 at Coors Field is hard to do. The linemaker knows and expects that. Public money should easily come in on the over later this evening. I want to be on the opposite side of public money.
That's why I consider COL UNDER 10 @ even money as today's best bet.
[This message has been edited by Never Caught Up (edited 09-17-2001).]
ARI & U 10 200/411
Since 2000 Randy Johnson is 3 - 2 vs COL. The total only went over 10 once and Johnson took the loss. If Johnson wins I look for the under to cover making for a nice parlay.
[This message has been edited by Never Caught Up (edited 09-17-2001).]
Since 2000 Randy Johnson is 3 - 2 vs COL. The total only went over 10 once and Johnson took the loss. If Johnson wins I look for the under to cover making for a nice parlay.
[This message has been edited by Never Caught Up (edited 09-17-2001).]
hey NCU, that's why we're all here to give different points of view....
everyone can make a case for either side or total to win....
good luck tonite.
everyone can make a case for either side or total to win....
good luck tonite.
Recap
PHI U 7.5 400/333 W +333
PHI & LOS 200/337 L -200
PHI U 7.5 & PHI 200/618 W +618
PHI U 7.5 & LOS 200/453 L -200
COL U 10.5 300/250 W +250
COL U 10 250/250 Push -0-
ARI & U 10 200/411 W (partial) +114
SDG +1.5 400/440 W +440
LOS 840/400 L -840
For the night 5-3-1 +515
YTD (since 9-10-01) 6-4-1 +440
Sides 0-1 -840
Totals 3-1-1 +508
Parlays 2-2 +332
Hedges 1-0 +440
[This message has been edited by Never Caught Up (edited 09-18-2001).]
PHI U 7.5 400/333 W +333
PHI & LOS 200/337 L -200
PHI U 7.5 & PHI 200/618 W +618
PHI U 7.5 & LOS 200/453 L -200
COL U 10.5 300/250 W +250
COL U 10 250/250 Push -0-
ARI & U 10 200/411 W (partial) +114
SDG +1.5 400/440 W +440
LOS 840/400 L -840
For the night 5-3-1 +515
YTD (since 9-10-01) 6-4-1 +440
Sides 0-1 -840
Totals 3-1-1 +508
Parlays 2-2 +332
Hedges 1-0 +440
[This message has been edited by Never Caught Up (edited 09-18-2001).]
