Need Help on this Under

Spock

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As many of you may have noticed I have been on fire lately
going 0 - 3 - 0 after the all star break :mad:

I have been beated due to :
a. a last min goal by Atlanta [Montreal screwed me]
b. horrible defensive effort by Montreal against Bruins [Montreal scred me again]
c. Toronto scoring 6 goals against Florida - 4 of them in 4:14 and last one to take my money with 3 mins left in the game [Toronto screws me - not to mention the amazing defensive effort of Florida]

So I have been thinking about what is going wrong and have come to the following conclusions:
a. As a Canadian Taxpayer, Canadian teams are making sure they screw me.
b. As a taxpayer for a little bit in the East Coast the Eastern teams are doing their bit.

Today I am leaving ALL the teams in Canada and All the Teams on the east side of the US alone.

I have capped this game through all the various angles that I look for but would love to get feedback on this game.

Game is :

Phoenix @ Anaheim Ducks Under 5 Goals

Phoenix was simply brutal against LA. Ducks have not given up a lot of goals other than the game in which they gave up 5 goals to LA. What is it about LA ? Mebbe the other teams take them too lightly bcoz of all the injuries. Whatever is the case the big game with lots of goals is past for the time being due to the undermanned LA scoring 4 against Phoenix and 5 against Ducks last time out.

Now both teams must be pissed becoz of their superb defence. Ducks could not score on a 5 on 3 in the last 2 mins in their last game. And Phoenix got the door slammed in their faces.

Ducks play a very tight defensive game @ home. This has been a consistent thing other than the game against LA. Phoenix has usually been playing very good defence also and the new kid looks good. He has a save % of around 93.9% and allowed only 10 shots to go through out of some .. not sure .. if i remember 189 shots .. i saw the stats last night so I cannot be sure.

Now out of last 5 almost 3 or 4 of Phoenix games have gone Over the total. But that is mainly bcoz Phoenix has exploded in 2 games scoring 7 and 5 goals respectively.

I think other than last 2 games Phoenix had held opponents to 1 goal each in 5 games.

Ducks allowing 1.96 goals per game for the season @ home.

Out of the last 6 meetings betn these two teams I think 5 of them have gone Under the Total.
The under is 16-6 when ANA is at home.

Phoenix takes around 27 shots on the road and allows around 29.
Ducks take around 28 shots and allow 26 @ home.

Penalty killing of both teams has been pretty impressive. Ducks are 3'rd in the league in PK for the season. Their PP is also good .. i think 7'th in the league for season.
Phoenix is 24'th i think in PP .. not sure of PK for season - dont remember ..

I am as confident of this play as I can be. All I need is feedback from the good cappers here. Just to ensure I am not missing anything.

Thanx a lot
Cheers !!!
Spock
 

Spock

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I just changed back to the Avatar i had before this slide.

Hope that helps the Vulcan Under Gods .. the trick is that your hand has to point towards the Gods.

Cheers !!!
Spock
 

ddubs

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Good cappers on totals?? I know you ain't talking about me, but I'll put in my 2 cents:D

FWIW, spock, I had a strong lean on the Under4.5+115 in this game. But a little gun-shy with my chitty pickings on totals this yr and the slide in the last 2 days.

Ana is playing 1st home game after a 3 game roadie. This yr in their 1st home game after a roadie of 2 games or more, they're 1-5, and the game totals were 3, 7(SJ), 6(Det), 4, 3, 1......2overs, 4unders. Ana scored 2 goals or less 4 times, including 2 shutouts.

Going back to last yr, they were 5-5-1, but the game totals were 3, 2, 1, 3, 3, 8(Nash), 6(Phx), 4, 3, 6, 2......3 overs, 8unders. Ana scored 2 goals or less 9 times, including 2 shutouts:eek:

Phx has suffered a power outage, 3 for their L30 PP's. Ducks had been in a similar slump until the 3 game roadie, going 4 for their L13. Both PK's have been great, Phx giving up 2 in L35 chances, Ana giving up 2 in L29.

I think in getting 115 back on 4.5 it's worth the risk, as I don't like paying the extra 50cents for the 1/2 puck.

Now that I told you I like the Under, you should take the Over now.:D

Good luck, buddy.
 

donly1ace

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Spock is in the house! With his old avatar! Looking good!

With regards to the Phoenix - Anaheim Under 5 goals play, here are my concerns:

BTW, Phoenix is 16th in PK% this season (19th on the road) and they are in fact 24th in PP%.

- As much as I like the play of Zach Bierk, I look at the last two games and he has been very regular. He is still not established as a great goalie and perhaps his honeymoon is over. Other great examples of this "new goalie" great play and then eventually get regular again are Sebastien Caron and Ryan Miller. They both had tremendous starts with their respective teams and taking over their teams #1 and #2 goalies. Now that there is news that the #1s are back (Burke for Phoenix, Hedberg for Pittsburgh and Biron's fine play for Buffalo), they don't have much to show for anymore. Look at all 3 of these goalies stats, and you will notice the temporary downfall.

- Another thing that bothers me is that the Ducks have a new guy called Ozolinsh and he will play at hom efor the 1st time. He is the kind of guy who usually makes a good first impression.

- If the Ducks are tired, it will probably be a more offensive game. Bri?re is hot of late, Amonte is back and Abid is playing good too.

But in the end, this could also be a very hard-fought game in which both teams play a defensive style game making sure they don't make any mistakes not to let the other get important points in the conference.

This will probably confuse your play more than help you but I wanted to let you know what I thought. But if you believe in your play, go for it. :)
 

Terryray

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Giguere

Giguere

Maybe it's carryover from MLB 'capping, but I take a long look at the goalie too.

Gigger is on one of his patented strong streaks, off a loss and at home now--so watch out!

he shutout Yotes in his one contest vs them this season,
and went 3-1-0, with 1.75 gga vs them last season.

I'm liking under here, but can't read Yotes' Bierk of late. under is 5-1 last six meetings. And with playoff spots to worry over, you'd think defence too.


more thoughts?
 

Spock

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thanx guys for the inputs ..

Was reading comments in the newspapers about Phoenix losing to LA .. poor defensive effort .. one of the goals was given up by a guy who was sick

Cyra: I had exactly the same thoughts in my mind regarding new goalies. spooky.. was thinking about how hot Caron and Miller were . .. and now down to earth ..

in this case I do think that if he wanna play in the NHL or present a good case to his team Bierk gonna have to play hard.

Style of playing each other has been defensive and I am thinking that this will not change.

what say ya boys

ddubs: agree totally with the value part .. but this one takes 6 Goals to lose .. and mebbe its worth the extra 50 cents .. .

am still deciding on this one
 

donly1ace

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Anxious to know what you decide but definitely agree about the angles you, ddubs & terryray. Now it's a question of making the right decision... and there are always three of them: one side, the other side and no play at all! Brainstorming time! :D
 

Spock

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will make decision @ 10:00 EST.

LETS GO SABRES DEFENCE .. DEFENCE .. DEFENCE .. DEFENCE

$ The game in Sabres land is sold out but there are plenty of Empty Seats. The reason being that a lot of tickets have been purchased by Canadians and there is 1 1/2 hr lineup at the bridge

FOCK .. Sabres again caught on an odd man rush .. . hate it when the Sabres defence do that ..
 

Spock

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Sabres allowing Canucks 6 shots on goal in first 6 mins while managing only 1 shot ..

ouch .. .

but dont worry my brother .. . SPOCK WILL PREVAIL
 

Spock

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whew .. survived a Vancouver 3 on 1 rush .. what the fock are Sabres defence people doing ?

man .. needing all the under gods powers together to make up for the lack of defensive efforts by the fockin jokers
 

Spock

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am listening to the Sabres radio .. why is the Sabres radio guy getting excited when Canucks score ..

has the idiot bet on the over ?????

he shud be sad and disappointed .. his team is losing ..
:confused: :shrug: :mad:
 

Spock

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idiot is giving me an attack ..

Biron robs Bertuzzi point blank .. how the hell is sabres giving up all these point blank shots ..

jokers ..

Cmon Biron .. we are 100% behind you buddy .. hopefully your defencemen can support you
 

donly1ace

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Wish I could watch this game... I bought DirecTV dish a couple of months ago and had to sell it away. I tried to hook it up at my condo on the 18th floor but with the positioning of my condo, I cannot get the signal being a couple of degrees off it.

I'm glad to knwo Biron has just put them in the game with this save. Also just realized that the Canucks need to score 3 more... I think we're in good hands! :D
 

Spock

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steals the fockin pucks and shoots a goal with 10 freakin seconds left ..

FOCKIN JAMES PATRICK .. . .

BIRON GOT THE LEFT GLOVE ON THE PUCK BUT THE PUCK ROLLED OVER
 

Spock

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SORRY CYRA

i think this one is gone ..

odd man rush and then how the fock can sabres give up a breakaway with 20 freakin seconds left ??????????

no way canucks dont score 2 more goals in 2 periods .. the basterds ..

but then again anything is possible .. boy i hate naslund now ..
 
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