Nevada -3 +103
- Thread starter Nelson
- Start date
I think Nevada will outscore Maryland... More comfortable environment for a western team... Time for a couple favorites to cover today... Odds on...
Have been winning betting teasers on dog and under, certainly would like Nevada +4' here, but not crazy about total on fast blue track. Think T Nev +4' and under 65 or so is probably a winner, but in this case I prefer nice clean simple Nevada -3 at odds on. Betting now because I think the line will keep moving toward Nevada. Reading around we're seeing the usual sentiment against western teams public not as familiar with. I'll rise or fall on Nevada outscoring Maryland today by at least a field goal.
Have been winning betting teasers on dog and under, certainly would like Nevada +4' here, but not crazy about total on fast blue track. Think T Nev +4' and under 65 or so is probably a winner, but in this case I prefer nice clean simple Nevada -3 at odds on. Betting now because I think the line will keep moving toward Nevada. Reading around we're seeing the usual sentiment against western teams public not as familiar with. I'll rise or fall on Nevada outscoring Maryland today by at least a field goal.
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Will be posting more college hoops totals as soon as bowl season ends. Have been winning at a good rate and expect that to continue. All my picks posted here for my record will be within the range of +120 to -120, nothing outside that.
maryland`s a funny bunch...sometimes they play their asses off(cal/wake)and sometimes they just don`t show up(fla st/md. tenn st/uva)....
their qb could give the wolfpack some problems if he`s on........and maryland has some very good backs...
but,they could just as easily stay home mentally...
i`m this close (-) to taking a shot with nevada...but the fact that maryland`s the dog might be enough for friedgen to get them motivated....
tough call....but i lean wofpack slightly also...maryland is strange...
g.l. with it,though...should be a good game...
personally looking at rice at home,fla,penn st+ 10 and caught geo tech-3 at -125....
their qb could give the wolfpack some problems if he`s on........and maryland has some very good backs...
but,they could just as easily stay home mentally...
i`m this close (-) to taking a shot with nevada...but the fact that maryland`s the dog might be enough for friedgen to get them motivated....
tough call....but i lean wofpack slightly also...maryland is strange...
g.l. with it,though...should be a good game...
personally looking at rice at home,fla,penn st+ 10 and caught geo tech-3 at -125....
Good points, Maryland certainly has the talent to beat Nevada. Just think the circumstances favor the western team.
Numbers I see show public on all three favorites today, but less strongly on Nevada. 60 70 70 for Md, Rice and OkS.
In spite of the Blue turf I'm looking at playing the under in the Neb,Clemson game as well.Played over 58- in this Maryland/Nevada game yesterday.Nevada got shut out on last years bowl game 23-0 and Terps lost 21-14 to Ore St in last years bowl.Look for a high scoring effort bt each.Anyway,very interested to hear you liked the under in Clemson Nebraska.GL on Nevada
You must mean someone else? I haven't said anyting re Clemson. Haven't looked at that game yet. I rarely bet overs. Have been waiting for public to push lines up a td then teasing the under on top of that, along with dog. Today am backing off, it's time for the public to cash a couple overs is my guess. I just flat won't bet over unless overwhelmingly sure. You might be right about high scoring on blue today. I have an inkling that way, but certainly would not bet it. Rather, am staying off it entirely. These numbers are just too high. My concern for the over: is Maryland really going to score enough to push the number into the sixties?
Edl, I play situations and circumstances. I do virtually nothing of what you do, the fundamental capping. My general bias is toward totals, toward unders, and reversion to mean (reverse of what just happened that is still big in the public's eyes).
sorry Nelson,looking back I misread your post.I am playing Nevada as well.GL anyway and sorry for the mistake.By the way,have you ever seen the Nevada QB Kappernack (sp)play,he's pretty good.
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Good luck, Edl. I do like the looking at last year's performance, that can often give a good clue to motivations and incentives, which is where you find why the computer numbers won't reflect what's going to happen as they can only deal with what has happened.
BTW, just cuz i'm writing a bunch, this is just an average pick for me, not a special one where i feel strongly. Five of the last seven have gone to the dogs; I think the favs take either 2/3 or 3/3 today. I don't believe that bowl games are independent events. Strict logic says that's a fallacy, but experience shows it is not.
BTW, just cuz i'm writing a bunch, this is just an average pick for me, not a special one where i feel strongly. Five of the last seven have gone to the dogs; I think the favs take either 2/3 or 3/3 today. I don't believe that bowl games are independent events. Strict logic says that's a fallacy, but experience shows it is not.
BTW, going to be betting these games at wsex on the interactive. If Maryland gets out to a 7-14-pt lead, there will be some tasty numbers on Nevada. Doubt that will happen, but might. That's one strategy I like - get a side on the dips, when you can get around 65 payout for your 35 contract. Other good strategy is to wait until later in the game when you have a near-sure read and go for a nice 20-40% return on your 60 or 80 contract.
Yes, i've seen him play. Don't really focus on players too much, prefer to take an impressionist view of things to avoid getting too deep in the furrow. Kappy can run and pass, and that speed and movement are what i'm betting will make the difference. I don't know Md as well in recent years. As weasel says, if they rise up, they could definitely spank Nevada, but my opinion is that will not happen here. Often the circumstances make the game. If not for the circumstances, you have nothing to go by but the fundamentals, and Vegas is stronger on those than 99.99 of individual players. I trust Vegas' numbers. But the numbers are based on history. They reflect what has happened, not what is likely to happen. You could say "past behavior is the best predictor of future performance." Yeah, maybe. But it's still just a general truth and must bow to a single specific reason that this game is likely to be different. If Maryland had real strong motivation and this game were played in North Carolina instead of Idaho then probably Maryland would be the call.
other than all the statistical gobbledygoop,one thing i like to look at in bowl games is which team has a double threat at qb....
there are some theories out there that favor strong ground attacks in bowl games......and having a qb that can make plays on his own seems to be invaluable...particularly when he`s going against more of a one dimensional opponent(qb)...
no way in hell does rutgers win yesterday if wilson doesn`t go down...
this is one reason why i`m close to pulling the trigger on nevada small...and why rice/fla/penn st and geo tech caught my eye...
by no means the be all and end all in picking winners...just another small consideration to throw out there...
g.l.,guys...:mj09:
there are some theories out there that favor strong ground attacks in bowl games......and having a qb that can make plays on his own seems to be invaluable...particularly when he`s going against more of a one dimensional opponent(qb)...
no way in hell does rutgers win yesterday if wilson doesn`t go down...
this is one reason why i`m close to pulling the trigger on nevada small...and why rice/fla/penn st and geo tech caught my eye...
by no means the be all and end all in picking winners...just another small consideration to throw out there...
g.l.,guys...:mj09:
got a three teamer for 200 and the FIRST TWO TEAMS HAVE WON
Nevada is the TEAM to win me the $ 1200
I WON'T middle the bet ...Nevada wins or MY BET BLOWS...i STAND by the bet on Nevada
Nevada is the TEAM to win me the $ 1200
I WON'T middle the bet ...Nevada wins or MY BET BLOWS...i STAND by the bet on Nevada
I have a similar situation with GA tech being the last leg tomorrow night, hope we both hit.
i bought geo. tech down to 3 early(-125) and hit it fairly substantially...love their coach...
vegas,btw,is my smallest wager thus far....maryland`s just too unpredictable...
