Even though I'll continue to play a large number of games, I'll reduce my posted plays to what I feel are the strongest ones.
1-4 -6 units yesterday
128-122 +5.85 units overall (YTD)
four plays for 2day:
LA -140
MIN +115
MLW under 8.5 -120
2 units ATL under 8 -105
LA, 3rd best record in NL, with nomo, whom LA has won Last 7/10 with at home, are just -140 versus a sub 500 rd team, with a rookie pitcher who is not the same on the road (over 5.00 ERA on RD) during a playoff race. Sounds too good to be true....
MIN just +115? That line begs for you to take oak, winners of 20 straight, who just swept the twins a week ago, and who send out Lidle, who has not allowed a run on the road in over 24 inngs, and just 4 hits in his last 2 starts! How can this be? I don't know, but somethin smells fishy, and I like Minny's chances, as the A's have had a number of days off recently to think about the streak, came close 3 times in a row now of breaking it. The main reason I think it ends is because of lidle. If this were Pedro, the scoreless streak would just be another notch; but for Lidle, who is simply not a great or even very good pitcher based on his carreer numbers, this is a career dfining streak that defies the odds, and will not continue. It could go on for another game, but I don't think so. Radke should hold em to 2/3 runs through 7. A's also getting sloppy on defense.
ATL and MLW unders are going to get pounded, so if you like em, better bet them early. Millowwd and Yoshii sport era's of about 2.5 over their last 10 home and last 10 road starts. only 7 of their last 20 starts in these roles have gone over this number. And most of those were because THEY scored a lot of runs--but if they each are facing a quality starter, don't expect the offensive numbers. While sheffield might be back, ATl offense and MON offense not producing consistently right now....
16 of last 20 road and home starts for dessens and sheets have gone under this total. They have a combined 6.00 era over their last 20 rd/hm starts. While dessens has struggled in 2 starts since DL, both still went under the total. Dessens will not continue to struggle...
MTK
1-4 -6 units yesterday
128-122 +5.85 units overall (YTD)
four plays for 2day:
LA -140
MIN +115
MLW under 8.5 -120
2 units ATL under 8 -105
LA, 3rd best record in NL, with nomo, whom LA has won Last 7/10 with at home, are just -140 versus a sub 500 rd team, with a rookie pitcher who is not the same on the road (over 5.00 ERA on RD) during a playoff race. Sounds too good to be true....
MIN just +115? That line begs for you to take oak, winners of 20 straight, who just swept the twins a week ago, and who send out Lidle, who has not allowed a run on the road in over 24 inngs, and just 4 hits in his last 2 starts! How can this be? I don't know, but somethin smells fishy, and I like Minny's chances, as the A's have had a number of days off recently to think about the streak, came close 3 times in a row now of breaking it. The main reason I think it ends is because of lidle. If this were Pedro, the scoreless streak would just be another notch; but for Lidle, who is simply not a great or even very good pitcher based on his carreer numbers, this is a career dfining streak that defies the odds, and will not continue. It could go on for another game, but I don't think so. Radke should hold em to 2/3 runs through 7. A's also getting sloppy on defense.
ATL and MLW unders are going to get pounded, so if you like em, better bet them early. Millowwd and Yoshii sport era's of about 2.5 over their last 10 home and last 10 road starts. only 7 of their last 20 starts in these roles have gone over this number. And most of those were because THEY scored a lot of runs--but if they each are facing a quality starter, don't expect the offensive numbers. While sheffield might be back, ATl offense and MON offense not producing consistently right now....
16 of last 20 road and home starts for dessens and sheets have gone under this total. They have a combined 6.00 era over their last 20 rd/hm starts. While dessens has struggled in 2 starts since DL, both still went under the total. Dessens will not continue to struggle...
MTK
