New Hampshire In-Game Thread

[Chadman]

Let's start it off with this blaring headline:

EPIC TURNOUT FOR DEMS -- We Are Out of Ballots!

What, is Fox News satellite out of range today?!?

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Actually would not the Fox opinion, i mean story read something like....we need to take their ballots away to prevent voter fraud.

I kid, I kid, I kid.

Glad someone started this thread.

My predictions:

Reps: Just like Iowa, many possibilities......but I see McCain pulling it out narrowly over Huckabee with Romney coming in third. McCain has won this state before, and I think he grabs it again. Paul pulls in stronger numbers thnn he did in Iowa.....Thompson and Rudy are in the dust.

Dems: The crying does not help. Obama wins and after Iowa, now would not be surprised to see Edwards nudge ahead of Hillary.

Just my guesses, going more on hunch than poll numbers as I do not know what those look like today.

 

[StevieD]

I think Obama wins big. So big in fact that he takes votes away from Republican Ron Paul. McCain wins for the Reds.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Agreed!

Stop if you have heard this one before: it depends on the Independent Voters.

Just read a Union Ledger article where early returns seems to foretell a record turnout for a primary. That means a lot of Indy voters.

Who will they go for?

If they break predominatly for the Dems, I think Obama wins a landslide....wont be a knockout for Hillary's campaign, but it might be time for the first standing eight count if that happens. In this scenario, I feel Romney would actually take the Repub side.

If they Indies break towards the Republican primary, I still think Obama wins by a slight margin. What that will do for the Repubs is the Maverick, himself, will take the prize with Paul and perhaps even Huckabee carving into Romney's numbers. If the Indies break more towards the R's or its 50/50, I think Paul will clearly put up better numbers than the 10% he got in in Iowa. I think he gets at least 12% either way and so long as the Indies dont vote overwhelmingly in the D primary, feel he has a strong chance at 15%, much to Gardenweasel's chagrin.

 

[Chadman]

I have a feeling that Paul will do better than expected, as well. Probably not enough to warrant a big story, but his numbers have to come from somewhere, based on his fundraising totals alone, don't they?

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Ron Paul is interesting--can understand most pissed off he wasn't on fox debate as would be interesting and much more entertaining than Thompson.

Will give him credit as having more change than anyone and defining it---

Agree with crew on outcome--I find it odd that I find the reb competition boring despite the most competative--and all the pazzaz in the hilliary/obama race--see where Carville is being added to clinton stable after this.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Is Carville still shilling for HRC.......boss over party, party over people, if you ask me.....surprised he's conherent enough to even speak today after his Tigers last night.

DTB: I think maybe one reason you're so ho-hum about the Repub competition is that there is an element of old guard there that is kinda boring and sorta smacks of 'now its my turn' a la the Dole elevation in 1996......McCain, for example, as much as I was a fan years ago does not excite me, nor many others these day.....Thompson comes off asleep and lazy.....while Romney and Rudy seem more like packaged images than substance.

Just my take, but I can see why it is not exciting....not that I am saying to back Paul or Huck, but those are the two candidates who could make waves, make rank and file Repubs stop and look at themselves and what their true principles are.....yet, for the most part, they have been marginalized by the republican press, notably Fox......Paul should be making waves and causing excitement, but as far as in the "media" he is not because they are effectively ignoring the way the "press" always ignores and trivializes people and movements who say the emperor has no clothes.

And, another factor w/ the Dems is that the aura of invincibility of Hillary is clearly crumbling, which makes it exciting to watch, the way you tune into a march madness first round game at the half when the #13 seed is in the lead......see the "media" kept saying she was far and away going to win, but those of us who follow it a bit more closely always had doubts.....for me, it as exciting to watch her inevitablity falter as it is watching people begin to realize it.

 

[AR182]

it's too early in the process to get too excited about anybody...because we are talking about primaries of 2 small states...let's see what happens on super-tuesday...