Troy Offense vs. Rice Defense
Troy operates out of a spread attack with junior QB Omar Haugabook serving as a triggerman. The former JUCO transfer has quickly picked up on offensive coordinator Tony Franklin's wide-open system. He is at his best making quick throws underneath to his array of receivers, which includes Gary Banks (66 catches), Toris Rutledge (29 catches), Mykeal Terry (25 catches) and Smokey Hampton (24 catches). However, Haugabook lacks ideal arm strength and will struggle with his accuracy on vertical throws. He also makes lots of mistakes under pressure, which is seen in his 17-to-16 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the regular season. Haugabook is a far better passer than runner, but he is mobile enough to exploit the Rice defense if it gets turned around in man-to-man coverage. Mostly, though, the rushing attack will revolve around Kenny Cattouse, who is averaging 5 yards per carry as the team's starting running back for its final six games of the regular season. The Trojans are small and athletic along the left side of their line, but like to run behind the massive tandem of guard Danny Franks (320 pounds) and tackle Kirbie Bodiford (318 pounds) on the right side.
Rice's 3-3-5 defense has improved from a season ago, but it still ranks 110th nationally in scoring. The strength of the unit is in the secondary, where FS Andray Downs is a tackling machine with good range in coverage and SS/Bandit Chad Price has emerged as a playmaker with four fumble recoveries on the season. Downs and Price also bring a great deal of experience to the table, with 79 prior starts between them. The Owls do a good job of generating front-four pressure, thanks to playmaking DE Courtney Gordon, who leads the team with 13 tackles for loss and seven sacks. MLB Terrance Garmon is also a player to watch. A true freshman, Garmon took over as a starter against East Carolina in the second-to-last game of the regular season and has quickly emerged as an instinctive and fast playmaker. However, the unit as a whole is undersized and misses far too many open-field tackles. Defending the run has been the biggest problem for Rice this season, which is why Cattouse is expected to put up big numbers carrying the ball in this game.
Rice Offense vs. Troy Defense
Rice's offense is a scoring machine. The team averaged just 15 points in its first four games versus Houston, UCLA, Texas and Florida State. Since then, it has dropped an average of 34 points on eight opponents. A key to this game will be the health of QB Chase Clement, who missed the season-finale (SMU) after sustaining a shoulder injury one week earlier versus East Carolina. Backup QB Joel Armstrong threw two interceptions and lost a fumble when stepping in for the injured Clement in the final regular season game. If Clement returns to form in the bowl game, the Owls should have not problem moving the ball against a marginal Troy defense. Clement does an outstanding job of surveying the field and limiting throws into traffic. It also helps to have a go-to-receiver the likes of Jarett Dillard, who has notched an amazing 1,176 yards and 20 touchdowns on 82 receptions this season. Look for Troy to roll its coverage to Dillard's side, which will open up room for wide receivers Armstrong and Tommy Henderson. It also opens up room in the running game for Quinton Smith, who is a versatile scat-back type with a squatty frame and good quickness. Smith is averaging 5.3 yards per carry with 10 rushing touchdowns on the season, while also finishing second on the team with 32 receptions for 335 yards and two more scores.
Troy's defense is young and continues to make lots of inexperienced mistakes. It has enough size to contain Smith on the ground, but keeping up with Rice's spread passing attack should prove to be a massive undertaking. The unit is technically based out of a 4-3 alignment, but Kenny Mainor (Bandit) is a 216-pound defensive end/outside linebacker hybrid who will play with his hand in the dirt on some downs and in a two-point stance in others. Regardless, Mainor's 6.5 sacks is best for a unit that ranks 16th nationally with an average of nearly three sacks per game. The Trojans' front-four must get consistent pressure on Clement, because their secondary lacks the athleticism to hold up long in coverage.
Special Teams
Troy PK Greg Whibbs has struggled throughout the season, connecting on just 9 of 17 field goal attempts, including two blocks. Otherwise, the Trojans have a clear advantage on special teams. PT Jason Wright has a respectable 39.7-yard average per punt and has landed 13 of his 55 attempts inside opponents' 20-yard line. The Trojans have also been far more productive in the return game, as Leodis McKelvin averages 23.5 yards per kickoff return and 11.3 yards per punt return, including a 53-yard score.
The Owls use a rotation at the place kicker position, as Luke Juist has hit four of his seven field goal attempts, compared to Clark Fangmeier, who has connected on seven of his 10 attempts. Fangmeier handles all the PATs and most of the field goals from inside the 40-yard line. PT Jared Scruggs is averaging 39.1 yards per punt, but his poor hangtime and marginal directional skills has been a problem for the cover units. Rice's return teams have been largely ineffective, but Brandon King has given the unit a boost recently with an average of 10 yards per punt return. Mike Falco has been decent on kickoff returns, averaging 22.5 yards per attempt. But his long of the year went for 45 yards, which is a team high on both kickoffs and punts.
Matchups
? Rice WR Jarett Dillard vs. Troy Leodis McKelvin
? Rice ROT Lute Barber vs. Troy BAN Kenny Mainor
? Troy WR Gary Banks vs. Rice CB Ja'Corey Shepherd
Scouts' Edge
These teams will take advantage of the fast track inside the Superdome. Troy has the better defensive unit, but neither team is close to respectable on that side of the ball. Conversely, Rice's offense is far more balanced and explosive with the three-headed monster of Clement, Smith and Dillard. Also take into consideration that the Owls put up considerably better numbers against stronger competition throughout the regular season. This game should ultimately be decided by the team that makes fewer mistakes, and if history is any indication that team will be Rice -- in a shootout.
Prediction: Owls 35, Trojans 26
Troy operates out of a spread attack with junior QB Omar Haugabook serving as a triggerman. The former JUCO transfer has quickly picked up on offensive coordinator Tony Franklin's wide-open system. He is at his best making quick throws underneath to his array of receivers, which includes Gary Banks (66 catches), Toris Rutledge (29 catches), Mykeal Terry (25 catches) and Smokey Hampton (24 catches). However, Haugabook lacks ideal arm strength and will struggle with his accuracy on vertical throws. He also makes lots of mistakes under pressure, which is seen in his 17-to-16 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the regular season. Haugabook is a far better passer than runner, but he is mobile enough to exploit the Rice defense if it gets turned around in man-to-man coverage. Mostly, though, the rushing attack will revolve around Kenny Cattouse, who is averaging 5 yards per carry as the team's starting running back for its final six games of the regular season. The Trojans are small and athletic along the left side of their line, but like to run behind the massive tandem of guard Danny Franks (320 pounds) and tackle Kirbie Bodiford (318 pounds) on the right side.
Rice's 3-3-5 defense has improved from a season ago, but it still ranks 110th nationally in scoring. The strength of the unit is in the secondary, where FS Andray Downs is a tackling machine with good range in coverage and SS/Bandit Chad Price has emerged as a playmaker with four fumble recoveries on the season. Downs and Price also bring a great deal of experience to the table, with 79 prior starts between them. The Owls do a good job of generating front-four pressure, thanks to playmaking DE Courtney Gordon, who leads the team with 13 tackles for loss and seven sacks. MLB Terrance Garmon is also a player to watch. A true freshman, Garmon took over as a starter against East Carolina in the second-to-last game of the regular season and has quickly emerged as an instinctive and fast playmaker. However, the unit as a whole is undersized and misses far too many open-field tackles. Defending the run has been the biggest problem for Rice this season, which is why Cattouse is expected to put up big numbers carrying the ball in this game.
Rice Offense vs. Troy Defense
Rice's offense is a scoring machine. The team averaged just 15 points in its first four games versus Houston, UCLA, Texas and Florida State. Since then, it has dropped an average of 34 points on eight opponents. A key to this game will be the health of QB Chase Clement, who missed the season-finale (SMU) after sustaining a shoulder injury one week earlier versus East Carolina. Backup QB Joel Armstrong threw two interceptions and lost a fumble when stepping in for the injured Clement in the final regular season game. If Clement returns to form in the bowl game, the Owls should have not problem moving the ball against a marginal Troy defense. Clement does an outstanding job of surveying the field and limiting throws into traffic. It also helps to have a go-to-receiver the likes of Jarett Dillard, who has notched an amazing 1,176 yards and 20 touchdowns on 82 receptions this season. Look for Troy to roll its coverage to Dillard's side, which will open up room for wide receivers Armstrong and Tommy Henderson. It also opens up room in the running game for Quinton Smith, who is a versatile scat-back type with a squatty frame and good quickness. Smith is averaging 5.3 yards per carry with 10 rushing touchdowns on the season, while also finishing second on the team with 32 receptions for 335 yards and two more scores.
Troy's defense is young and continues to make lots of inexperienced mistakes. It has enough size to contain Smith on the ground, but keeping up with Rice's spread passing attack should prove to be a massive undertaking. The unit is technically based out of a 4-3 alignment, but Kenny Mainor (Bandit) is a 216-pound defensive end/outside linebacker hybrid who will play with his hand in the dirt on some downs and in a two-point stance in others. Regardless, Mainor's 6.5 sacks is best for a unit that ranks 16th nationally with an average of nearly three sacks per game. The Trojans' front-four must get consistent pressure on Clement, because their secondary lacks the athleticism to hold up long in coverage.
Special Teams
Troy PK Greg Whibbs has struggled throughout the season, connecting on just 9 of 17 field goal attempts, including two blocks. Otherwise, the Trojans have a clear advantage on special teams. PT Jason Wright has a respectable 39.7-yard average per punt and has landed 13 of his 55 attempts inside opponents' 20-yard line. The Trojans have also been far more productive in the return game, as Leodis McKelvin averages 23.5 yards per kickoff return and 11.3 yards per punt return, including a 53-yard score.
The Owls use a rotation at the place kicker position, as Luke Juist has hit four of his seven field goal attempts, compared to Clark Fangmeier, who has connected on seven of his 10 attempts. Fangmeier handles all the PATs and most of the field goals from inside the 40-yard line. PT Jared Scruggs is averaging 39.1 yards per punt, but his poor hangtime and marginal directional skills has been a problem for the cover units. Rice's return teams have been largely ineffective, but Brandon King has given the unit a boost recently with an average of 10 yards per punt return. Mike Falco has been decent on kickoff returns, averaging 22.5 yards per attempt. But his long of the year went for 45 yards, which is a team high on both kickoffs and punts.
Matchups
? Rice WR Jarett Dillard vs. Troy Leodis McKelvin
? Rice ROT Lute Barber vs. Troy BAN Kenny Mainor
? Troy WR Gary Banks vs. Rice CB Ja'Corey Shepherd
Scouts' Edge
These teams will take advantage of the fast track inside the Superdome. Troy has the better defensive unit, but neither team is close to respectable on that side of the ball. Conversely, Rice's offense is far more balanced and explosive with the three-headed monster of Clement, Smith and Dillard. Also take into consideration that the Owls put up considerably better numbers against stronger competition throughout the regular season. This game should ultimately be decided by the team that makes fewer mistakes, and if history is any indication that team will be Rice -- in a shootout.
Prediction: Owls 35, Trojans 26
