NEW SYSTEM...i hope.

T

TORONTO-VIGILANTE

ad interim...
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Dec 27, 2000
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"...Quo fas et gloria ducunt..."
well, i'm finally gonna get my shizznit together.
This new system is just hypothetical and will not use any of my "real" money to wager on.

When I come back next month I will start keeping track of my postings here and try to get out of my -$3000 hole that i blitzed myself in.

This new system involves my HOT 4-PAK:
1)CINCI
2)SAN DIEGO
3)W-SOX
4)HOUSTON

I will keep track of this system as the season progresses.

This is how it works:

1) I will take CINCI on the ROAD
2) I will bet against CINCI at HOME
3) I will take SD on the ROAD
4) I will bet against SD at HOME
5) I will bet against W-SOX on the ROAD
6) I will bet with W-SOX at HOME.
7) I will bet with HOUSTON on the ROAD.

hopefully the law of averages will be nice to me.

let's see the schedule tonite:

JUNE 27th :
W-SOX @MINNY (+120)
CINCI +(135) @ST.LOO
HOUSTON (+190)@ARIZONA
PADRES (+120)@ COLORADO

all lines are from WSEX.

good luck to all and ME.

TORONTO-VIGILANTE.



[This message has been edited by TORONTO-VIGILANTE (edited 06-27-2001).]
 
N

Nick Douglas

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TV,

Be careful with a system like this. Often times home and road records for teams tend to even back out over the course of a year. I am sure you have heard this before but the only proven way to win money long term is by analyzing each game individually and relying on systems and trends that *make sense*, not those that are just statistical aberrations over a short period of time.
 
T

TORONTO-VIGILANTE

ad interim...
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"...Quo fas et gloria ducunt..."
thanks for the tip NICK.

what i didn't mention was that if I feel that i'm gonna get burned, i'll stop this system and move onto another angle.

this will NOT replace my capping individual games

this is just for experiment only.

biggrin.gif
 
N

Never Caught Up

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Nick,

Your message made me think of another one of "Painter's Laws" (talked about Jack Painter in a previous post).

"The outcome of a given event is independent of the outcome of preceeding events."

To illustrate his point he took out a coin and flipped it. His contention was that the next flip of the coin was still a 50 - 50 proposition and the probability of it landing heads or tails would not be effected by the previous flip.

I never totally agreed with that one, but it does have a certain amount of logic to it.
 
S

snoozing

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TV, that law assumes equality of outcomes. Sports is about momentum, teams built around stadium advantages and individual talent coupled with the momentum of the "lead dog" of the team.

I still think there is room for selection of games based on momentum factors but we cannot discount the past and most recent (momentum)performance of the teams and the individuls.

I play the hottest teams parlay, based on recent monmentum, knowing full well that luck is the biggest factor. But (I know you are not suppose to start a sentance with but), playing the hottest teams has and should continue to produce a winning edge.

Good Luck,
Bill

F'ing Cubs
mad.gif
 
N

Never Caught Up

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Yes on both things.

Jack was equating this theory to point spread sports (mainly football) and probability analysis in general. You are right about momentum with the exception that I believe what goes up has to come down. I am also a big believer in the due factor.

. . . and you are right on the other thing . . . damn Cubs. (grin)
 
T

Take Two ?

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T.V. - think you should add the follwong:

Bet against the Jays at Home
Bet against the Jays away...
biggrin.gif


Just kidding...TT
 
T

Take Two ?

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Yoy need to get a ticket right behind home plate, with a big "MAD JACKS" sign, and get that babe to sit in your lap...
smile.gif
 
EXTRAPOLATER

EXTRAPOLATER

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What exactly did this Painter dude mean by "independant"? Obviously, subsequent coin flips will be "independant" of one another.
Even the result of games #2 and #3, in any given series, will be "independant" of one another in virtually every cause and effect sense.
Extrapolating the outcome of game #3, however, requires trying to gain information for games #1, #2, etc. While they are "independant" in many senses, all of our inductive evidence comes from these earlier events. If each event were truly "independant" then we would have absolutely no chance, and may as well be flipping coins.

The past does not predict the future.
But it can sure help to light the way.
 
N

Never Caught Up

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Ex,

Painter's theory was that handicapping should be done with precisely what you are talking about . . . inductive edidence from previoous performances and other quantifiable indicators. What he was basically saying is that those are the only indictors that matter. The fact that a team has lost 19 in a row doesn't increase the probability (according to Painter) that they will win number 20. If there is no other "inductive evidence" then the event will maintain 50 - 50 probability regardless of the 19 game losing streak. That is the situation with a coin. A baseball team is loaded with "inductive evidence" that we must consider and Painter's theory was that we must focus on that alone. Like I said before . . . I didn't totally buy into everything Jack Painter taught, but most of it I did. I still put a certain amount of weight on due factor and Painter would not have done that.

Painter was a brilliant handicapper and teacher. He used to teach sports handicapping at Clark County Community College in Las Vegas. I understand he died in the early 90's, but I studied under him in the early 80's and learned a lot. Sometimes I think I need a refresher course. (grin)
 
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