New Year's Eve Bowl Games....

[taoist]

...well, i've been as cold as the proverbial Canadian witch's tit in a brass brassere lately, so tread lightly.... here's what i'm playing tomorrow.


Sun Bowl
Purdue (+3) ...and a small $-line play.

Purdue?s 6 losses were by 7 points at Notre Dame, by 3 points to Wake Forest, by just 3 points at Iowa, in overtime at Illinois, by 2 points to Michigan, and by just 4 points to unbeaten Ohio State and they out-gained 5 of those 6 opponents. Purdue is not so far from being 10-2 or better and ranked in the top 5 in the nation yet they are an underdog to an overrated Washington squad whose only win over a really solid team was due to an injury to star quarterback Jason Gesser in their season ending victory over Washington State. Washington was just 1-5 ATS as a favorite this year while Purdue was 3-1 as a dog with their only spread loss in that role coming in a 7 point loss as a 6 point dog at Notre Dame, a game in which they out-gained the Irish 318 yards to 203 yards. It also doesn?t hurt that the dog in the Sun Bowl is 10-1-2 ATS the last 13 years.


Liberty Bowl
Tcu (+5.5) ...and a small $-line play.

It looks to me like the wrong team is favored in this game, as the Horned Frogs should control things on both sides of the ball. TCU has held 10 straight opponents to 285 total yards or less and their only losses this season were in overtime at Cincinnati and at ECU by 3 points in a game in which they out-gained the Pirates 445 yards to 236 yards but turned it over 7 times. I just don?t see how Colorado State can be favored in this game, as I've got TCU winning by 6 points. TCU also qualifies in a 31-9-1 ATS trend and a 37-12-1 ATS trend. The record is 7-1-1 ATS when both of those angles apply to the same game...as it is here.


Peach Bowl
Maryland (pick)

Would love to hear Jack's take on this one as I am fading my beloved Vols.... Jack, I'd love to make a hat wager with you, but I just can't seem to find the nerve to back my boys in this one.... Your turtles should get the win here, don't you think?

...good luck, fellas...and Happy New Year!!! :weed:

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

good luck.

i'm on purdue and TCU as well....

if that means anything...?

 

[Pujo21]

TEASER

TEASER

I'm gonna play a teaser 10 points:

IOWA STATE + 22
PURDUE + 13
VA TECH -1

I just think that the opening line of Boise at home already was padded..line jumps to 12, so we get a key number 22.

Purdue.. just making that dog a little stronger.. one thing though, if this line drop to 2 , I may insert Wash plus 8 and play teaser both ways. Looking for a middle.

Va Tech.. i think is going to hurt someone

Good Luck

AND THANKS FOR THESE DOGS BARKING...interesting !

 

[Pujo21]

also i meant to mention

IOWA ST + 22
TCU + 15
MD +10

Good Luck

 

[ddubs]

Just an FYI......Kyle Orton has been slated the starting QB for Purdue. He's a much better pocket passer than Kirsch, but no mobility. The good thing is that he was the QB for Purdue in last year's Sun Bowl vs WAZU, and set NCAA bowl game records with 74 passing attempts and 83 offensive plays. He also established Sun Bowl records with 38 completions and 419 passing yards.

Also 7 of the 11 starters on D for Purdue all were starters for the Rose Bowl team 2 years ago.

Damn, I'm so excited, I don't think I'll be able to sleep tonite.

Good luck tomorrow.

 

[taoist]

ddubs,

I'm with ya on your Boilers, but I wish Orton was sitting the bench instead of starting.... Purdue?s offense is considerably better with Kirsch at quarterback instead of Orton. Orton started the season as the #1 guy, but was replaced during the Iowa game by Kirsch, who nearly led your boys to the road upset. While Orton?s numbers aren?t bad (6.1 yards per play - passing, rushing and sacks), they pale in comparison to Kirsch?s.... Kirsch averaged 8.1 yards per pass attempt this season (against teams that allow 6.8 ypa) and he totaled 396 rush yards (including sacks) at 5.7 ypr. Overall, that?s an average of 7.2 yards per play, which in awesome!!! Kirsch was banged up at the end of the season, but he is healthy for this game. Unfortunately, (IMHO) Purdue coach Joe Tiller has been splitting reps 50/50 between the two quarterbacks and said that both are very likely to play. (...and as you said, Orton to start...) To be honest, I?d feel much better if Kirsch was going to play the entire game, but the Boilermakers should be able to exploit Washington?s questionable secondary regardless of whose behind center....

Good luck to us, buddy. Methinks we got a winner here.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

GL Chad,

I hope all of your selections are winners!!!
:canada1

 

[ddubs]

What a shock, I can't sleep.

Definitely agree with you that Kirsch's ability to scramble definitely adds a new dimension to Purdue's offense. I was a little surprised to hear that Orton's starting. I think we still have a win-win situation here, since Neuheisel will have to prep his D on both Purdue QB's who are total opposites. Tiller said that Orton's been sharper than Kirsch during practice, thus he's starting. But I also think that he's protecting Kirsch, in a way, since he's a true freshman at 18y/o, not knowing how he'd respond to starting in a bowl game, and that Orton's coming back to a familiar place where he shined, and was 15 yds from pulling off a win vs WAZU last yr. Rest assured that Kirsh will be ready to come in if Orton struggles early.

The special teams will be a HUGE factor for Purdue, it was just painful this year to watch the careless fumbles/TO's that they committed earlier this year.

Having 7 starters on D from the Rose Bowl team is a great edge to us, I think. Tuiasosopo and his option attack just killed us 2 years ago. Not this year, though, where Wash is primarily pass 1st and 2nd, then maybe run a little, and I think Purdue's D will be up to the task......I HOPE!!

Would be a great belated X-Mas present for me if they win this game. I'm playing this game small, since I'm obviously biased, but I'm going with the ML in this game.

Good luck to us.

 

[gardenweasel]

gents

gents

if i may.....thank you for the excellent info...i too wish kirsch was starting...but,what an excellent change of pace if things go a little doosey pots early on....a strange year for the boilers....they were so close to a really stellar season...you have a two dimensional offense vs a pass-only attack and a defense that actually has better stats....am hoping that the close losses for purdue haven`t become a self-fulfilling prophecy...i think the boilers are the better all around club....

also agree with the tcu play and like the under a little there...hoping tcu`s tough rushing defense stifles sapp....we have a liability with stilley at qb....and tcu`s solid running game should do business vs a very weak colo st rush "d"....

leaning under with tenn-md also...tenn defense has played well down the stretch(albeit vs mediocre competition at best)......will have to play well to stay in the game....tennessee lacks offensive firepower.....

again thanks and g.l.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

Hope you don't mind Chad,

Purdue vs. Washington


Purdue lost an embarrassing six games this year, though those six games were lost by a combined 26 points. In their four games against top 12 teams, Purdue lost by 4 to Ohio State, 3 to Iowa, 2 to Michigan, and 7 to Notre Dame. It is not inconceivable to be talking about a 10-2 or 11-1 Purdue team playing on New Year?s Day rather than a 6-6 team playing in the Sun Bowl. That is no consolation to Purdue coach Joe Tiller, who is disappointed with his team?s performance early in the season, but was happy with the way they responded to winning three of their last four to become bowl eligible. ?We played our best football down the stretch, and we are excited to play another game,? he said. ?I think we have two teams that might be playing their best football of the season coming into El Paso.? Tiller may be on to something.

While Washington isn?t much of a threat running the ball, QB Cody Pickett and WR Reggie Williams are going to be among the top Heisman candidates in 2003. Pickett has passed for 4,186 yards by completing 61% of his passes. Of those 4,186 yards, 1,390 of them went to Williams. Purdue?s All American candidate at Free Safety, Stu Schweigert says "Williams is a great receiver. We've played great receivers this year, but he's going to be one of the toughest we've played. He's physical. We know we have a challenge with that.? That?s quite a compliment considering Purdue has played against such great receivers as Charles Rogers of Michigan State and Brandon Lloyd of Illinois. The amazing thig about this pass-catch duo is that Picket is only a junior and Williams is a sophomore. Both are likely to return next season and lead the Huskies back to the top of the Pac 10.

Taking snaps behind center for Purdue will likely be two players, both underclassmen. Kyle Orton is a sophomore who started the year as the starting QB. He improved each game and looked like a star in the first half of Purdue?s game against Iowa before being sidelined with a concussion. Enter Brandon Kirsch. Kirsch rallied Purdue to what appeared to be a come from behind victory of the Hawkeyes after Special Teams had essentially handed the game to Iowa. But for a late defensive lapse that allowed Iowa to win the game on a late fourth down touchdown pass, Kirsch would have been a hero. However, since that game Kirsch and Orton have taken turns as starters and as heroes. Kirsch dominated Northwestern and looked great against Michigan. Then both players looked very impressive against potential National Champion Ohio State before the Buckeyes heaved a desperation touchdown pass, again on fourth down late in the game to beat Purdue. Against Michigan State Kirsch looked decent before getting injured, allowing Orton to come off the bench in the final minutes of the game to throw a 40 yard touchdown pass to win the game. Kirsch remained the starter for the Indiana game, but was benched in favor of Orton, who was dominant against the Hoosiers in a blowout. Confused? So, apparently, is Joe Tiller. Tiller has yet to name a starting quarterback for the Sun Bowl, though sources say he will name Orton the starter in the coming days. Rick Neuheisel won?t pay any attention as the Huskies have been preparing for both QB?s. That?s the smart plan because both will play significant minutes in the Sun Bowl. Don?t let the uncertainty at quarterback fool you, though. These two players are very complimentary of each other with Orton having the best arm in college football and Kirsch using a great combination of footspeed and accuracy to lead the Boilermakers. The two have combined for over 3,000 yards passing completing nearly 60% of their passes. Both of these kids could start for most of their opponents and will pass the ball to All American candidate WR John Standeford, who caught 65 passes for 1202 yards.

On defense, the Huskies are stout at stopping the run while their secondary is suspect. That is why Tiller will start the game with Kyle Orton at quarterback. Purdue ran a very balanced offense that finished first in the Big Ten, but will need big days from 1,000 yard rusher Joey Harris and freshman Brandon Jones. Don?t expect either to have big days as they seem to have big days against weaker competition and fall short against the better defenses. Purdue?s defense finished #1 in the Big Ten, tied with Ohio State. The Boilermakers finished #1 in pass defense efficiency in the Big Ten. Watch for Free Safety Stu Schweigert to pay close attention to Williams? side of the field. Defensive Coordinator Brock Spack will focus his defense on preventing the big plays much like they did when facing Rogers at Michigan State.

The reason Purdue is 6-6 this season is because of fumbles and special teams errors. Those appear to be corrected. If Purdue wins the turnover margin and doesn?t give up free points on Special Teams, Purdue will come away with a 10 point win. I suspect Purdue will give up field position on either a fumble or blocked kick, but their defense will hold Washington to a FG. Purdue wins by 7 giving the Big Ten a 3-0 record this bowl season.

 

[taoist]

...don't mind it one bit, anthony.


...anyone know why the line on tcu is going south? is there that many people on tcu or is something else going on? i saw the line go OTB earlier, but haven't seen any info posted as to why.... anyone know? :shrug:

 

[ChrryBlstr]

good luck!!!

 

[loophole]

took purdue +3 and tcu +5, but i'll probably play the vols

 

[taoist]

loop,

...i hate going against my vols, but i can't see them pulling this one out; however, i will "pay" to see them beat jack's maryland bunch.... i've got the game at 24-17.... i just don't think that Tennessee has the playmakers on offense to do much damage in this game against a solid Maryland defense and the Terps have enough offensive balance and firepower to put up a decent number of points on the Vols.... Also, Tennessee?s 3 wins (both SU and ATS) against bad teams to end the season mean absolutely nothing, as teams that covered their final 3 games of the regular season are actually bad bets in bowl games.... Tennessee qualifies in a negative 14-41 ATS trend based on that premise and teams that allowed less than 7 points in their last regular season game are only 31-52-1 ATS in their bowl games.... those are my thoughts on the vols, FWIW. good luck today and happy new year.

 

[gardenweasel]

how long can purdue afford to stay with orton?

how long can purdue afford to stay with orton?

he`s obviously not getting it done...they wait much longer,this thing will be over....is kirsch injured?

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

Congrats my southern friend.....

Sorry to see you go against your team, but liek a wise man once said " Bet with your head, not your heart"

lets go 3-0 today!!!

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

good luck taoist!!!