next week

[the addict]

have said something similar to this on 2 different occasions while looking at lines during the MNF games....

and passed in both instances....


but not this time


SANDIEGO looks to good to be true...

i said it with philly vs cowboys

and

i said it with balty vs houston

i chickened out both times after seeing good cappers on the opposite...



i am playin it tonite at somepoint unless someone thinks i am absolutley wrong.........



SANDIEGO ML


they will beat the jags...


least i hope so :facepalm:


nfl has been brutal, someone talk me outta it if i am making a big mistake...


anyone look at anylines for next week yet?

 

[the addict]

well, laid off last night...



AGAIN


after seeing a bunch of ppl on the jags...


didnt have a play, but didnt wanna risk money against some of the best on here...


if this happens next week, i am not fuckin checkin anyones plays

 

[LetItRide1033]

here's my opinion (if you care):

vegas is reducing lines on some of these games because that is the ONLY way they can get action on both sides. if SD was favored by a td or more, they would have a lot more action on SD. vegas would take a beating. they love the contrarian bettor. (i like to think i am one.) i love taking dogs when the lines don't move and the fav is getting pounded. but it's apparent vegas is onto this type of bettor. they're anticipating that against the grain bet. it's been ridiculous this year, college and pro, "public" favorites on big action games are covering quite often. the games you mentioned are good examples. this past saturday, baylor was another public fav where the line stayed below a field goal. the game was over halfway thru the 3Q. i think this will continue until the public swings back around and starts falling for the "too good to be true" games. i don't claim to be a sharp but with the help of this board, i do okay. a lot of people i know who i consider square bettors are doing very well on the year. i think it will change in bowl season. i'm staying the course with the contrarian point of view. hopefully it will pay off. good luck to you addict.

 

[tcon142]

here's my opinion (if you care):

vegas is reducing lines on some of these games because that is the ONLY way they can get action on both sides. if SD was favored by a td or more, they would have a lot more action on SD. vegas would take a beating. they love the contrarian bettor. (i like to think i am one.) i love taking dogs when the lines don't move and the fav is getting pounded. but it's apparent vegas is onto this type of bettor. they're anticipating that against the grain bet. it's been ridiculous this year, college and pro, "public" favorites on big action games are covering quite often. the games you mentioned are good examples. this past saturday, baylor was another public fav where the line stayed below a field goal. the game was over halfway thru the 3Q. i think this will continue until the public swings back around and starts falling for the "too good to be true" games. i don't claim to be a sharp but with the help of this board, i do okay. a lot of people i know who i consider square bettors are doing very well on the year. i think it will change in bowl season. i'm staying the course with the contrarian point of view. hopefully it will pay off. good luck to you addict.

Right on point 1033, I totally agree, they've mad adjustments and the contrarian hasn't been as successful. Great insight man. GLTU

 

[ldabdou]

here's my opinion (if you care):

vegas is reducing lines on some of these games because that is the ONLY way they can get action on both sides. if SD was favored by a td or more, they would have a lot more action on SD. vegas would take a beating. they love the contrary bettor. (i like to think i am one.) i love taking dogs when the lines don't move and the fav is getting pounded. but it's apparent vegas is onto this type of bettor. they're anticipating that against the grain bet. it's been ridiculous this year, college and pro, "public" favorites on big action games are covering quite often. the games you mentioned are good examples. this past saturday, baylor was another public fav where the line stayed below a field goal. the game was over halfway thru the 3Q. i think this will continue until the public swings back around and starts falling for the "too good to be true" games. i don't claim to be a sharp but with the help of this board, i do okay. a lot of people i know who i consider square bettors are doing very well on the year. i think it will change in bowl season. i'm staying the course with the contrary point of view. hopefully it will pay off. good luck to you addict.

Love the post. Although I think this is the norm all the time. I don't think anything has changed. I think its just a matter of feeling those games out and (so called picking those spots). I think they swing both ways. Look @ the NO/Det line. NO came off of a blowout the week prior and Det came off a loss and they still set the line @ 9. To me those r the lines that tell u what way to go. Truth of the matter is SD had to have that game. I hate using the word must win but they needed that coming off of losing six in a row and playing a non conference medicore jags team. my $ was definately going on the better qb and against a rookie. shit would have hit the fan and it would have been a long flight back. I call that line a "soft line". I do agree with u that vegas tries to get in the minds of the bettor heads and sets a line knowing they r going to get certain action on one side more than the other. Its an almost reverse psychology method they use knowing they were going to get Jack $. Some of those games to me the (lopsided) ones r a stay away. For example the viking/bronco game. I liked Min and everybody was on them. Crazy line movement and all. Forget it.

 

[the addict]

good stuff fellas...


i have just learned that i tend to overthink games...


i consider the lines, how they move, the public money, and often times stay away from games that win, and often times seem to bet on the games that lose.....fuckin terrible how i can do this...



vegas has a lot of big lights for a reason. smart fuckers....they know how i think....how we all think....


GL to everyone

 

[ldabdou]

good stuff fellas...


i have just learned that i tend to overthink games...


i consider the lines, how they move, the public money, and often times stay away from games that win, and often times seem to bet on the games that lose.....fuckin terrible how i can do this...



vegas has a lot of big lights for a reason. smart fuckers....they know how i think....how we all think....


GL to everyone

One thing I've learned (sad to say) over hard earned $ is don't lock urself into a game right away once u see the line comeout. A lot of shit happens in a weeks time from when the line comes out til the day the game starts. Especially what happens to ur own fucking mind. :facepalm:

 

[tcon142]

Agree with you Idabdou the saints/lions game, I liked NO especially with the line that high, usually says something, but was playing with scared money this week so laid off.

Although one good example this year to me has been the college games with the unranked team giving points to the ranked team. In the past it didn't happen often but most times it was a good bet (taking the unranked team). This year it seems it's been a huge sucker bet, at least for me.

That being said with two jobs and two young kids I'm not nearly tuned into these games like a lot of others on this site, so maybe I see a skewed range of games. Thoughts?

 

[MasterTX]

Glad to know I am not the only contrarion having poor results this season compared to the last 2-3 years. Seems like the UGLY teams are just not performing, and the linesmakers are not giving extra points (if anything, they are tricking me into them even more).

Gotta stay the course though...