NFC / AFC Game Sunday

[THE KOD]

Mora, whose family is with him, and the Falcons have commandeered their own area by the pool. "We call it Falcons Landing," he said. "The NFL buys out this resort so there aren't a lot of other people around."

There are no enemies this week.

"You're working with the greatest athletes in the world," Mora said. "They're great guys, and we've all got a lot in common. You go back and talk about the games we played, and plays that were made. There are no hard feelings. It's all about camaraderie, hanging out. It's great getting to know these guys on a personal level. You learn why they're here. They're all smart, funny and driven."
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[SoCalYo]

Sunday in the Pro Bowl, where blitzing isn't allowed and no defenders try to deliver career-ending hits.
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BINGO ! Whoops there it is !

This borders on inside information. What if Vegas forgot about this little gem and don't realize I found this.

Hope the rat bastids don't see this before I can make my wager.

I hope the line is still 60 ......chit.

you have got to be kidding. If you watched last years game you would have know that they started the no blitzing rule last year. I doubt Vegas overlooked this little fact. Inside Information :mj07:

 

[THE KOD]

SoCal

are you bashing me ?

Well last year smast year, I love the no blitzing rule and the over.

Vegas hasn't much of a chance to see what affect the no blitz rule will have on this game. I think we find out in this game.

Points, lots and lots of points.

Easy money.

 

[4bubba]

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The "No blitzing rule" has been around for the last decade, and maybe before that.

IMO

I cant prove it, but I am relatively sure that blitzing has never been allowed in the Pro Bowl.

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[4bubba]

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BTW,

The local line in Vegas now is AFC -3.5 / 64.5


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[THE KOD]

4bubba

thanks. I had heard the no blitz was not official until last year.

Glad to see that total at 64.5

Its going in the right direction.

TOUCHDOWN TOUCHDOWN

LOTS AND LOTS OF POINTS

 

[4bubba]

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Its up to 4 / 65


at 5 PM PST


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[hogman14]

4bubba.

You have provided great insight all year.

At what point of this total going up do you pull in the reins, and make it a no play?

Think the NFC keeps it close.

GL

 

[THE KOD]

my question would be this.

At what point do you play the under ?

Too late for me. No backing down now.

 

[hogman14]

Scott

That was also a thought. I try to go anti-concensus and/or UNDER in these games, but that can burn you real quick when it's 35-24 at the half.

Good luck with your play, I'm looking at NFC.

 

[4bubba]

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Guys,

The last years game was by far the wierdest Pro Bowl game ever. With the defensive backfield penalties, of course everyone is going OVER.

A few ideas on the UNDER:

---NO defensive player wants the game to be like that. They have at least as much pride as the offensive players. Thats both sides. this is not like hockey or basketball where even the defensive players shoot goals.
In football, the defensive players want no points. And I am sure they are pissed about last year.

---66 points is nine TDs and a FG (at the half) That means every drive is a TD. If any stall and FG is kicked, the UNDER looks much better.

---A lot of the excellent QBs were that way because of the system and the players around them. Manning and Brady have great WRs and offensive linemen that have played with them a
long time. That wont happen here. Brees is a prime example. After teams finally started to cover TE Gates, the Chargers offensive stats dropped.

---Most of the best RBs are out. That means one dimentional. Defenses can adjust to that.
For the AFC out(NFL ranking)
Curtis Martin ( 1 )
Priest Holmes ( i )
Edgeran James ( 4 )
Corey Dillon ( 3 )

For the NFC out
Clinton Portis ( 8 i )
Shawn Alexander ( 2 )

---The above list definitely hurts the AFC most.

---Of past Pro Bowls, QBs like Elway, Marino, and Farve were free-wheelers more than system orientated like Manning and Brady. They could do great with any teams WRs and any system.
If there are any QBs that are free-wheeling, its more McNabb and Culpepper. Plus you add Vick's arm and running ability, and i feel the NFC has the edge.
TO is such a character, he will find a way to get in the game. ( I wonder what the odds are? )

---one last (and I really dont want to include it, but I am sure others will) All the NFC QBs are black. McNabb talked about it Super Bowl week. This game will be a crusade for them and a great soap box for them to stand on.
No one I know thought about McNabb being anything but a QB, but he brought up race again.
Its unfortunate that it can not go away.

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Bottom Line

take NFC +4.5 (5 stars) ( I want 4.5. It is 4 now, but I will wait. I will buy the hook)

UNDER 66.5 (3 stars) ( I want 66.5. it is 65 now, but I will wait.

66 is 9 TDs and a FG.

 

[baby johnson]

scott u r right

 

[4bubba]

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BTW,

I am only talking a bet just to enjoy the game. This is not a game to bet serious money on.


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[THE KOD]

4bubba

me too.

Run Mikey run !

Lots and lots of points !

 

[Marco]

Interesting how the total is now at 64.5.......

Yet at that same place one can wager on quarter totals of 13, 17, 13.5, and 14......adds up to 57.5...still hanging out the key numbers for the quarters....

I am tempted to throw out the second quarter and wager first, third, and fourth quarters to at least have two touchdowns scored in each.....

 

[4bubba]

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One thing the Vegas Casinos do to screw people is the parley cards are Ties Lose on specialty games like the Super Bowl, Monday night games, Pro Bowl, etc.

Then they put the points at 3 or 7 and the O/U on the prime numbers.

Never bet Ties Lose and always check the card so they dont slip it by you.


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[4bubba]

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I have seem NFC +190, a good value for a crazy game.


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[THE KOD]

Oly has this at 65 now.

I feel good about the over. I wish I had gotten it early at 60.5. Sometimes late means lose but I prefer to wait and try not to make a mistake.

If we get kickoff and punt return for a touchdown and interception return for TD. Oh boy @!
Can't forget about points scored from the defensive units. Thats their tradeoff for playing back most of the game.

Its gravy.


Points. Lots and lots of points.

 

[4bubba]

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In arizona Charlies (vegas) the total is up to 67



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[THE KOD]

We never know if steam is driving the lines up or they are going to kick ass with the under.

Guess we will see soon.