NFC and AFC Championships

[lostinamerica]

2004 NFL Regular Season: 46-46 (-0.95*)
2004 NFL Postseason: 5-2 (+2.75*)


Philadelphia(-4') over Atlanta (2.50*)
- - Oh, I like it a really lot.


New England(-2') over Pittsburgh (1.50*)
- - I like it plenty.


As I further cap this week's NFC and AFC Championship games, I'll be keeping my eyes and ears tuned to the media (mainly print), and reading through the various MJ posts, and I'll try to post some Odds and Ends - substantial and trivial - that are influencing my thinking.

I'll start with this:

- - I loved the point made during the Indy broadcast that New England had their bye in Week 3. Regardless of the season, the defending champs take just about the best shot from EVERY team on their schedule, and IMO last week's bye recharged a veteran Pat's team like none of the remaining contenders . . . In the earlier Pittsburgh vs. New England game, Pittsburgh was off their bye, while New England was off a battle for first place in their division against the 5-0 Jets. FWIW.


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Nearly everyone has weighed in with their opinion on these championship games . . .


Philadelphia(-4') over Atlanta (2.50*)

Philadelphia HC Andy Reid left himself wide open for second guessing in his restful approach to the conclusion of the regular season, and his team responded with easily their most complete postseason performance since the 2001-2002 season (TB/Chi/StL).

In both of last year's postseason games against Green Bay and Carolina, I made confident ATS plays against Philadelphia. This year's Eagles team is better than any of the last three editions in too many ways to spend time breaking it down. Believe it or don't believe it.

Atlanta is sound and talented in all three phases, especially along the defensive line, but with the exception of the X factor in Michael Vick, Atlanta plays with a lunch pail steadiness that thrives on setting the tempo, rather than a dynamic assault that counters quickly when tempo is being disrupted . . . Ball control into the redzone and beyond would not be my first choice for overpowering the Eagles when all the elements are in play today . . . Atlanta isn't Minnesota on defense, but Donovan McNabb isn't playing second fiddle when it comes to making plays out of the pocket.

Bottom Line: What I've sensed all week is that Philadelphia was ready to play this game on Friday, Saturday or Sunday, in Philadelphia, Atlanta or on the head of a pin. I don't think Philadelphia let's Vick win the game, and I don''t think McNabb loses the game. I like this play a really lot.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Pass on the totals, and instead I put a small wager on Philadelphia(1stH)(-3)(-120).


New England(-2') over Pittsburgh (1.50*)

"On Halloween . . . the Patriots got blitzed with 21 points in the final five minutes of the first quarter, then promptly fumbled on their first play from scrimmage to start the second half, leading to another Steeler touchdown . . . That game was a referendum on what the Steelers are capable of. But, as Tom Brady pointed out late in the week, it wasn't indicative of the Patriots." (projo.com 1.23.05)

Stout matchups in this one. New England will smack fearsome Pittsburgh in the mouth plenty in defense of their AFC title . . . Pittsburgh's potential to create favorable matchups on offense still requires Roethlisberger and Cowher to strike with precision and confidence as they did in the first game . . . I think a dominant performance from the Pittsburgh defense, not the offense, holds the key to whether Pittsburgh stops the Champs . . . I'd watch for Belichick to spread the field on offense or run some no huddle or use some such tactics early that are the antithesis of beating Pittsburgh by playing the game at the tempo Pittsburgh likes best.

It's not the basis of my capping, but I think Vegas wanted no part of the one-sided action that would come their way if New England was the underdog, and the line was set to get even wagering.

Bottom Line: Whether it comes in the first quarter or the fourth quarter, I expect these titans will play a game that is settled by two or five or eight or so critical plays, and the anxious moments surrounding those plays, which is why I look to have Brady, Belichick and the Champs carrying my cash.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Eagles win going away.

I liked it a really lot.

Congrats to their fans.

GL