NFL 2021-2022 FOOTBALL SEASON PREVIEWS-NEWS-NOTES-PICKS-RUMORS !
- Thread starter Cnotes53
- Start date
- Sep 10, 2018
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NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 2
Thursday game
NY Giants (0-1) @ Washington (0-1)
? Giants ran ball for 60 yards; they were outgained 420-314 by Denver.
? On three drives to red zone, Giants scored only 3 points.
? Last four years, Giants are 20-7 ATS as road underdogs.
? Giants are 3-7-1 ATS in last 11 road openers.
? Last three years, Giants are 7-2 ATS in NFC East road tilts.
? Under is 4-1 in their last five road openers.
? QB Fitzpatrick got hurt; Heinicke (11-15/122 LW) gets his 2nd NFL start.
? Chargers outgained Washington 424-259 last week.
? Chargers converted 14-19 on 3rd down against them LW.
? Last five years, Washington is 5-10 ATS in NFC East home games.
? Last 3+ years, Washington is 3-6 ATS as a home favorite.
? Under is 7-2 in their last nine home games.
? Giants won last five series games, last three by 3 or less points, or in OT.
? Giants won last three visits here, by 24-6-3 points.
? Favorites are 5-2 ATS in last seven series games.
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 2
Thursday game
NY Giants (0-1) @ Washington (0-1)
? Giants ran ball for 60 yards; they were outgained 420-314 by Denver.
? On three drives to red zone, Giants scored only 3 points.
? Last four years, Giants are 20-7 ATS as road underdogs.
? Giants are 3-7-1 ATS in last 11 road openers.
? Last three years, Giants are 7-2 ATS in NFC East road tilts.
? Under is 4-1 in their last five road openers.
? QB Fitzpatrick got hurt; Heinicke (11-15/122 LW) gets his 2nd NFL start.
? Chargers outgained Washington 424-259 last week.
? Chargers converted 14-19 on 3rd down against them LW.
? Last five years, Washington is 5-10 ATS in NFC East home games.
? Last 3+ years, Washington is 3-6 ATS as a home favorite.
? Under is 7-2 in their last nine home games.
? Giants won last five series games, last three by 3 or less points, or in OT.
? Giants won last three visits here, by 24-6-3 points.
? Favorites are 5-2 ATS in last seven series games.
- Sep 10, 2018
- 19,265
- 25
- 48
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 2
Sunday games
New Orleans (1-0) @ Carolina (1-0)
? Saints pasted Green Bay 38-3 LW; Winston threw 5 TD passes.
? Saints are 18-6 ATS in last 24 games on natural grass.
? Last 3 years, New Orleans is 8-1 ATS in NFC South road games.
? Saints are 2-9 ATS in last 11 road openers.
? Saints had five assistant coaches test positive for COVID this week.
? Last 5 years, New Orleans is 16-6 ATS as a road favorite.
? Panthers held Jets to 45 yards rushing, beat them 19-14 LW.
? Panthers outgained Jets 381-252, led 16-0 at halftime.
? Darnold threw for 279 yards in his Carolina debut.
? Last two years, Carolina is 0-6 ATS at home vs NFC South rivals.
? Last 4+ years, over is 20-13 in Panther home games.
? Last 2 years, Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS as a home underdog.
? Saints won eight of last nine series games.
? New Orleans won last four visits to Charlotte by average of 30-10.
? Underdogs are 5-2 ATS last seven series games.
Houston (1-0) @ Cleveland (0-1)
? Texans ran ball for 160 yards, beat Jaguars 37-21 LW.
? Houston converted 12-21 on third down, were +3 in turnovers.
? Last three years, Texans are 9-6 ATS as road underdogs.
? Texans covered three of last four road openers.
? Over last decade, Houston is 2-3 ATS as double digit underdogs.
? Under is 7-3 in their last ten road openers.
? Browns blew 22-10 lead, lost 32-29 at Kansas City LW.
? Browns ran for 153 yards, were -2 in turnovers, only 2-7 on 3rd down.
? Cleveland is 0-7 ATS as a favorite in their home opener.
? Browns are 11-15-1 ATS in last 27 games as home favorite.
? Browns were double digit favorite once in last 10 years (W41-24, -10.5)
? Over is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.
? Houston won five of last six series games.
? Browns (-4) beat Texans 10-7 LY; both TD?s were in 4th quarter.
? Texans lost three of five visits to Cleveland.
Cincinnati (1-0) @ Chicago (0-1)
? Cincinnati edged Minnesota 27-24 in OT last week.
? Bengals converted only 3-14 on third down vs Vikings.
? Last 20 years; Bengals are 7-2 ATS in Week 2 if they won in Week 1.
? Bengals are 8-13 ATS last 21 games vs NFC opponents.
? Bengals covered six of last seven road openers.
? Over is 10-2 in their last dozen road openers.
? Chicago (+7.5) lost 34-14 in Los Angeles LW.
? Bears are 2-4 ATS last six road openers.
? Last four years, Chicago is 5-8 ATS as home favorite.
? Bears are 2-5 ATS in last seven home openers.
? Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven home openers.
? Dalton started 133 games for Bengals (70-61-2, 2011-19)
? Bears won last two series games, but are 5-6 overall vs Cincy.
? Bengals won four of six visits to Chicago.
Las Vegas (1-0) @ Pittsburgh (1-0)
? Tough scheduling spot for Raiders, after Monday nite home game.
? Las Vegas threw for 409 yards in their OT win Monday.
? Last two years, Raiders are 7-4 ATS as road underdogs.
? Las Vegas is 6-1-1 ATS in last eight road openers.
? Raiders converted 7-15 on 3rd down Monday, Ravens only 3-12.
? Over was 6-2 in Raider road games LY.
? Steelers won opener 23-16 in Buffalo; they were down 10-0 at half.
? Steelers blocked punt for a TD last week.
? Pitt converted only 4-12 on third down, Buffalo 8-18.
? Last 8 years, Pittsburgh is 28-23 ATS as home favorites.
? Pittsburgh is 10-6 ATS last 16 home openers (0-3 last three)
? Under is 8-4 in their last 12 home openers.
? Raiders won five of last seven series games; teams last met in ?18.
? Raiders lost 35-3/38-35 in last two visits here; their last win here was in ?09.
Buffalo (0-1) @ Miami (1-0)
? Bills lost opener 23-16 to Steelers LW; they led 10-0 at half.
? Buffalo outgained Steelers 371-252, but had punt blocked for TD.
? Last 3 years, Bills are 5-3 ATS as road favorite.
? Buffalo is 11-8 ATS in last 19 road openers.
? McDermott is 17-12-1 ATS as a favorite.
? Over was 5-1-2 in Buffalo road games LY.
? Miami won opener 17-16 at New England last week.
? Dolphins were outgained 393-259 in Foxboro LW.
? Last five years, Miami is 14-8-1 ATS as a home underdog.
? Tagovailoa is 7-3 SU as Miami?s starting QB.
? Dolphins are 6-3 ATS in last nine home openers.
? Over is 11-1 in their last dozen home openers.
? Buffalo won last five series games, four of them by 10+ points.
? Bills waxed Miami 56-26 in Week 17 LY.
? Buffalo won four of last six visits to South Beach.
LA Rams (1-0) @ Indianapolis (0-1)
? Rams won opener 34-14; Stafford threw for 321 yards, 3 TD?s.
? Rams averaged 11.6 yards/pass attempt last week.
? Under McVay, Rams are 4-0 SU in road openers (3-1 ATS).
? Last four years, Rams are 8-8 ATS vs AFC opponents.
? Under McVay, LA is 13-10 ATS as road favorites.
? Over is 6-4 in last ten road openers.
? Colts lost 28-16 at home to Seattle LW.
? Seahawks averaged 9.3 yards/pass attempt.
? Last 5+ years, Indy is 3-6 ATS as a home underdog.
? Wentz is 35-34-1 as an NFL starter.
? Colts are 17-7-1 ATS last 25 games vs NFC opponents.
? Under is 19-14 in their last 33 home games.
? Rams won last two series games, 38-8/46-9.
? Rams split four visits to Indianapolis.
? McVay?s first game as Rams? coach was 46-9 win over Indy in 2017.
San Francisco (1-0) @ Philadelphia (1-0)
? 49ers won opener 41-33 at Detroit; they led 38-10 at one point.
? 49ers averaged 11.5 yards/pass attempt LW, were minus-2 in turnovers.
? Niners are 5-4 ATS last nine games as road favorite.
? 49ers had eight plays of 20+ yards LW, tied for most in NFL
? Last 4+ years, over is 18-15 in 49er road games.
? 49ers stayed east this week, at Greenbrier Resort in West Virginia.
? Eagles won opener 32-6 in Atlanta, running ball for 173 yards.
? Eagles outgained Falcons 434-260, held Atlanta to 3.6 yards/pass attempt.
? Philly is only NFL team that hasn?t allowed a play of 20+ yards.
? Last 5 years, Eagles are 8-4 ATS as home underdogs.
? Philly won four of last five home openers.
? Last five years, under is 28-12 in Eagle home games.
? Eagles won seven of last nine series games.
? Philly (+9) won 25-20 @ San Francisco LY.
? 49ers lost three of last four visits to Philadelphia.
Denver (1-0) @ Jacksonville (0-1)
? Denver (-3) won its opener 27-13 at the Giants LW.
? Denver ran for 165 yards, outgained Giants 420-314.
? Last six times they won their opener, Denver also won in Week 2.
? Bridegwater is now 27-24 as an NFL starting QB.
? Last 4 years, Broncos are 4-6 ATS as road favorites.
? Last 3+ years, under is 16-9 in Denver road games.
? Jaguars (-3) were minus-3 in turnovers, lost 37-21 in Houston LW.
? Texans converted 12-21 on 3rd down, outgained Jaguars 449-395.
? Last two years, Jacksonville is 5-7 ATS as home underdogs.
? Jaguars covered their last four home openers (2-2 SU)
? Rookie QB Lawrence threw for 332 yards in his NFL debut.
? Under is 11-6 in their last 17 home openers.
? Jaguars are 7-6 overall vs Denver.
? Home teams lost five of last seven series games.
? Broncos lost three of last five visits to Jacksonville.
New England (0-1) @ NJ Jets (0-1)
? Patriots (-3) lost opener 17-16 at home to Miami LW.
? Patriots outgained Dolphins 393-259, scored 13 points on four red zone drives.
? Last three years, Patriots are 8-10 ATS as road favorites.
? New England won/covered four of last five road openers.
? Patriots haven?t been 0-2 since 2001.
? Under 7-2 last nine road openers.
? Jets have new coach, new QB.
? Starting QB is rookie Wilson, from BYU.
? Jets started 0-2 three of last four years.
? Last four years, Gang Green is 14-8-2 ATS as home dogs.
? Jets are 6-2 ATS in last eight home openers.
? Over is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.
? New England won last ten series games.
? Six of their last seven series wins were by 14+ points.
? Patriots won last five visits here (three by 7 or less points)
Minnesota (0-1) @ Arizona (1-0)
? Vikings (-3) lost opener 27-24 in OT at Cincinnati.
? Minnesota threw ball for 336 yards, gave up 149 yards on ground.
? Last four years, Vikings are 0-4 SU/ATS in Week 2.
? Last five years, Minnesota is 8-13 ATS as road underdog.
? Last five years, Vikings are 11-13 ATS on natural grass.
? Over is 10-7 in Minnesota?s last 17 road games.
? Arizona (+3) crushed Tennessee 38-13 in its opener.
? Cardinals outgained Titans 416-251, had 17-yard edge in field position.
? Redbirds scored five TD?s on 11 drives last week.
? Last three years, Arizona is 2-7 ATS as home favorites.
? Cardinals are 1-3-1 ATS in last five home openers
? Under is 7-2 in their last nine home openers.
? Minnesota won five of last six series games.
? Vikings lost last three trips to Arizona; their last win here was in ?97.
? Home side won last seven series games.
Atlanta (0-1) @ Tampa Bay (1-0)
? Falcons got pummeled 32-6 at home last week.
? Eagles outgained them 434-260, running for 173 yards.
? Falcons are only NFL team that hasn?t had a play of 20+ yards.
? Last four years, Atlanta is 8-12 ATS as road underdog.
? Falcons are 4-10 ATS in last 14 road openers.
? Under is 6-2 in Atlanta?s last eight road openers.
? Buccaneers (-9) won opener 31-29 over Dallas last Thursday.
? Tampa Bay threw 50 passes, ran ball only 14 times LW.
? Buccaneers turned ball over four times (-3) LW.
? Three of their four TD drives were less than 60 yards.
? Last 7+ years, Tampa Bay is 7-19-2 ATS as a home favorite.
? Over is 10-6 in their last sixteen home games.
? Tampa Bay won last three series games, by 13-4-17 points.
? Falcons won four of last five visits to Tampa.
? Underdogs are 6-4 ATS last ten series games.
Tennessee (0-1) @ Seattle (1-0)
? Tennessee got spanked 38-13 at home by Arizona LW.
? Titans were outgained 416-251; Henry ran for only 58 yards.
? Last three years, Tennessee is 7-5 ATS as road underdogs.
? Last 6+ years, Titans are 14-10-1 ATS vs NFC opponents.
? Titans are 2-6-1 ATS in last nine road openers.
? Under is 6-3 in last nine road openers.
? Seahawks (-3) won opener 28-16 at Indianapolis.
? Seattle ran for 140 yards, allowed only one play of 20+ yards.
? Seattle is 11-8-2 ATS in last 21 games as home favorites.
? Seahawks are 14-4 ATS in last 18 home openers.
? Seattle is 8-4-1 ATS last 13 games vs AFC teams.
? Under is 16-3-1 in last 20 home openers.
? Seahawks won six of last eight series games.
? Titans lost seven of nine visits to Seattle.
? Last eight series games were decided by 7 or fewer points.
Dallas (0-1) @ LA Chargers (1-0)
? Dallas lost opener 31-29 in Tampa; Prescott threw for 403 yards.
? Cowboys lost despite being +3 in turnovers- they were 9-17 on 3rd down.
? Dallas scored only 12 points on four red zone drives LW.
? Last 4+ years, Cowboys are 6-9-1 ATS as road underdogs.
? Dallas threw 58 passes, ran ball 18 times LW.
? Cowboys have three extra days to prep, playing on Thursday LW.
? Chargers (+1) won opener 20-16 at Washington.
? Bolts converted 14-19 third down plays last week.
? Chargers outgained Washington 424-259, throwing for 334 yards.
? Last three years, Bolts were 3-13-1 ATS as home favorites.
? Chargers are 7-4 ATS last 11 home openers.
? This is Chargers? first game at SoFi Stadium with fans.
? Chargers won last three series games.
? Dallas won four of its last six visits to San Diego.
Kansas City (1-0) @ Baltimore (0-1)
? Chiefs (-5.5) beat Cleveland 32-29 in their opener.
? Chiefs were outgained 457-397, were +2 in turnovers.
? KC averaged 8.5 yards/pass attempt, Browns 11.5.
? Last six years, Chiefs are 17-11-1 ATS as road favorites.
? KC won last four road openers (3-1 ATS).
? Over 4-2 in their last six road openers.
? Baltimore lost opener 33-27 (OT) in Las Vegas Monday nite.
? Ravens were outgained 491-406; Carr threw for 435 yards.
? Last three years, Ravens are 7-0-1 ATS as a single-digit dog.
? Last five years, Baltimore is 4-1 ATS as home dogs.
? Last three years, Ravens are 5-7-1 ATS coming off a loss.
? Ravens have been 0-2 once since 2006.
? Chiefs won last four series games (average total, 53.5)
? Chiefs won five of last six visits to Baltimore.
? Kansas City scored 32 ppg in last four series games.
Monday game
Detroit (0-1) @ Green Bay (0-1)
? Lions lost opener 41-33 LW, after trailing 38-10.
? 49ers averaged 11.5 yards/pass attempt against them.
? Goff threw for 338 yards in his Detroit debut.
? Last three years, Detroit is 9-8-1 ATS as road underdogs.
? Lions are 2-4 ATS in last six road openers.
? Goff is 0-8 SU (1-7 ATS) with coach other than McVay.
? Green Bay got whacked 38-3 by New Orleans LW.
? Packers ran ball for only 43 yards; they were minus-3 in turnovers.
? Green Bay was one of two teams not to score TD last week.
? Last two years, Packers were 10-6 ATS as home favorites.
? Green Bay is 11-3 ATS in last 14 home openers.
? Under is 3-1 in their last four home openers.
? Packers won last four series games (42-21/31-24 LY)
? Lions split their last six visits to Lambeau Field.
? Goff lost playoff game 32-18 here last year.
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 2
Sunday games
New Orleans (1-0) @ Carolina (1-0)
? Saints pasted Green Bay 38-3 LW; Winston threw 5 TD passes.
? Saints are 18-6 ATS in last 24 games on natural grass.
? Last 3 years, New Orleans is 8-1 ATS in NFC South road games.
? Saints are 2-9 ATS in last 11 road openers.
? Saints had five assistant coaches test positive for COVID this week.
? Last 5 years, New Orleans is 16-6 ATS as a road favorite.
? Panthers held Jets to 45 yards rushing, beat them 19-14 LW.
? Panthers outgained Jets 381-252, led 16-0 at halftime.
? Darnold threw for 279 yards in his Carolina debut.
? Last two years, Carolina is 0-6 ATS at home vs NFC South rivals.
? Last 4+ years, over is 20-13 in Panther home games.
? Last 2 years, Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS as a home underdog.
? Saints won eight of last nine series games.
? New Orleans won last four visits to Charlotte by average of 30-10.
? Underdogs are 5-2 ATS last seven series games.
Houston (1-0) @ Cleveland (0-1)
? Texans ran ball for 160 yards, beat Jaguars 37-21 LW.
? Houston converted 12-21 on third down, were +3 in turnovers.
? Last three years, Texans are 9-6 ATS as road underdogs.
? Texans covered three of last four road openers.
? Over last decade, Houston is 2-3 ATS as double digit underdogs.
? Under is 7-3 in their last ten road openers.
? Browns blew 22-10 lead, lost 32-29 at Kansas City LW.
? Browns ran for 153 yards, were -2 in turnovers, only 2-7 on 3rd down.
? Cleveland is 0-7 ATS as a favorite in their home opener.
? Browns are 11-15-1 ATS in last 27 games as home favorite.
? Browns were double digit favorite once in last 10 years (W41-24, -10.5)
? Over is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.
? Houston won five of last six series games.
? Browns (-4) beat Texans 10-7 LY; both TD?s were in 4th quarter.
? Texans lost three of five visits to Cleveland.
Cincinnati (1-0) @ Chicago (0-1)
? Cincinnati edged Minnesota 27-24 in OT last week.
? Bengals converted only 3-14 on third down vs Vikings.
? Last 20 years; Bengals are 7-2 ATS in Week 2 if they won in Week 1.
? Bengals are 8-13 ATS last 21 games vs NFC opponents.
? Bengals covered six of last seven road openers.
? Over is 10-2 in their last dozen road openers.
? Chicago (+7.5) lost 34-14 in Los Angeles LW.
? Bears are 2-4 ATS last six road openers.
? Last four years, Chicago is 5-8 ATS as home favorite.
? Bears are 2-5 ATS in last seven home openers.
? Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven home openers.
? Dalton started 133 games for Bengals (70-61-2, 2011-19)
? Bears won last two series games, but are 5-6 overall vs Cincy.
? Bengals won four of six visits to Chicago.
Las Vegas (1-0) @ Pittsburgh (1-0)
? Tough scheduling spot for Raiders, after Monday nite home game.
? Las Vegas threw for 409 yards in their OT win Monday.
? Last two years, Raiders are 7-4 ATS as road underdogs.
? Las Vegas is 6-1-1 ATS in last eight road openers.
? Raiders converted 7-15 on 3rd down Monday, Ravens only 3-12.
? Over was 6-2 in Raider road games LY.
? Steelers won opener 23-16 in Buffalo; they were down 10-0 at half.
? Steelers blocked punt for a TD last week.
? Pitt converted only 4-12 on third down, Buffalo 8-18.
? Last 8 years, Pittsburgh is 28-23 ATS as home favorites.
? Pittsburgh is 10-6 ATS last 16 home openers (0-3 last three)
? Under is 8-4 in their last 12 home openers.
? Raiders won five of last seven series games; teams last met in ?18.
? Raiders lost 35-3/38-35 in last two visits here; their last win here was in ?09.
Buffalo (0-1) @ Miami (1-0)
? Bills lost opener 23-16 to Steelers LW; they led 10-0 at half.
? Buffalo outgained Steelers 371-252, but had punt blocked for TD.
? Last 3 years, Bills are 5-3 ATS as road favorite.
? Buffalo is 11-8 ATS in last 19 road openers.
? McDermott is 17-12-1 ATS as a favorite.
? Over was 5-1-2 in Buffalo road games LY.
? Miami won opener 17-16 at New England last week.
? Dolphins were outgained 393-259 in Foxboro LW.
? Last five years, Miami is 14-8-1 ATS as a home underdog.
? Tagovailoa is 7-3 SU as Miami?s starting QB.
? Dolphins are 6-3 ATS in last nine home openers.
? Over is 11-1 in their last dozen home openers.
? Buffalo won last five series games, four of them by 10+ points.
? Bills waxed Miami 56-26 in Week 17 LY.
? Buffalo won four of last six visits to South Beach.
LA Rams (1-0) @ Indianapolis (0-1)
? Rams won opener 34-14; Stafford threw for 321 yards, 3 TD?s.
? Rams averaged 11.6 yards/pass attempt last week.
? Under McVay, Rams are 4-0 SU in road openers (3-1 ATS).
? Last four years, Rams are 8-8 ATS vs AFC opponents.
? Under McVay, LA is 13-10 ATS as road favorites.
? Over is 6-4 in last ten road openers.
? Colts lost 28-16 at home to Seattle LW.
? Seahawks averaged 9.3 yards/pass attempt.
? Last 5+ years, Indy is 3-6 ATS as a home underdog.
? Wentz is 35-34-1 as an NFL starter.
? Colts are 17-7-1 ATS last 25 games vs NFC opponents.
? Under is 19-14 in their last 33 home games.
? Rams won last two series games, 38-8/46-9.
? Rams split four visits to Indianapolis.
? McVay?s first game as Rams? coach was 46-9 win over Indy in 2017.
San Francisco (1-0) @ Philadelphia (1-0)
? 49ers won opener 41-33 at Detroit; they led 38-10 at one point.
? 49ers averaged 11.5 yards/pass attempt LW, were minus-2 in turnovers.
? Niners are 5-4 ATS last nine games as road favorite.
? 49ers had eight plays of 20+ yards LW, tied for most in NFL
? Last 4+ years, over is 18-15 in 49er road games.
? 49ers stayed east this week, at Greenbrier Resort in West Virginia.
? Eagles won opener 32-6 in Atlanta, running ball for 173 yards.
? Eagles outgained Falcons 434-260, held Atlanta to 3.6 yards/pass attempt.
? Philly is only NFL team that hasn?t allowed a play of 20+ yards.
? Last 5 years, Eagles are 8-4 ATS as home underdogs.
? Philly won four of last five home openers.
? Last five years, under is 28-12 in Eagle home games.
? Eagles won seven of last nine series games.
? Philly (+9) won 25-20 @ San Francisco LY.
? 49ers lost three of last four visits to Philadelphia.
Denver (1-0) @ Jacksonville (0-1)
? Denver (-3) won its opener 27-13 at the Giants LW.
? Denver ran for 165 yards, outgained Giants 420-314.
? Last six times they won their opener, Denver also won in Week 2.
? Bridegwater is now 27-24 as an NFL starting QB.
? Last 4 years, Broncos are 4-6 ATS as road favorites.
? Last 3+ years, under is 16-9 in Denver road games.
? Jaguars (-3) were minus-3 in turnovers, lost 37-21 in Houston LW.
? Texans converted 12-21 on 3rd down, outgained Jaguars 449-395.
? Last two years, Jacksonville is 5-7 ATS as home underdogs.
? Jaguars covered their last four home openers (2-2 SU)
? Rookie QB Lawrence threw for 332 yards in his NFL debut.
? Under is 11-6 in their last 17 home openers.
? Jaguars are 7-6 overall vs Denver.
? Home teams lost five of last seven series games.
? Broncos lost three of last five visits to Jacksonville.
New England (0-1) @ NJ Jets (0-1)
? Patriots (-3) lost opener 17-16 at home to Miami LW.
? Patriots outgained Dolphins 393-259, scored 13 points on four red zone drives.
? Last three years, Patriots are 8-10 ATS as road favorites.
? New England won/covered four of last five road openers.
? Patriots haven?t been 0-2 since 2001.
? Under 7-2 last nine road openers.
? Jets have new coach, new QB.
? Starting QB is rookie Wilson, from BYU.
? Jets started 0-2 three of last four years.
? Last four years, Gang Green is 14-8-2 ATS as home dogs.
? Jets are 6-2 ATS in last eight home openers.
? Over is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.
? New England won last ten series games.
? Six of their last seven series wins were by 14+ points.
? Patriots won last five visits here (three by 7 or less points)
Minnesota (0-1) @ Arizona (1-0)
? Vikings (-3) lost opener 27-24 in OT at Cincinnati.
? Minnesota threw ball for 336 yards, gave up 149 yards on ground.
? Last four years, Vikings are 0-4 SU/ATS in Week 2.
? Last five years, Minnesota is 8-13 ATS as road underdog.
? Last five years, Vikings are 11-13 ATS on natural grass.
? Over is 10-7 in Minnesota?s last 17 road games.
? Arizona (+3) crushed Tennessee 38-13 in its opener.
? Cardinals outgained Titans 416-251, had 17-yard edge in field position.
? Redbirds scored five TD?s on 11 drives last week.
? Last three years, Arizona is 2-7 ATS as home favorites.
? Cardinals are 1-3-1 ATS in last five home openers
? Under is 7-2 in their last nine home openers.
? Minnesota won five of last six series games.
? Vikings lost last three trips to Arizona; their last win here was in ?97.
? Home side won last seven series games.
Atlanta (0-1) @ Tampa Bay (1-0)
? Falcons got pummeled 32-6 at home last week.
? Eagles outgained them 434-260, running for 173 yards.
? Falcons are only NFL team that hasn?t had a play of 20+ yards.
? Last four years, Atlanta is 8-12 ATS as road underdog.
? Falcons are 4-10 ATS in last 14 road openers.
? Under is 6-2 in Atlanta?s last eight road openers.
? Buccaneers (-9) won opener 31-29 over Dallas last Thursday.
? Tampa Bay threw 50 passes, ran ball only 14 times LW.
? Buccaneers turned ball over four times (-3) LW.
? Three of their four TD drives were less than 60 yards.
? Last 7+ years, Tampa Bay is 7-19-2 ATS as a home favorite.
? Over is 10-6 in their last sixteen home games.
? Tampa Bay won last three series games, by 13-4-17 points.
? Falcons won four of last five visits to Tampa.
? Underdogs are 6-4 ATS last ten series games.
Tennessee (0-1) @ Seattle (1-0)
? Tennessee got spanked 38-13 at home by Arizona LW.
? Titans were outgained 416-251; Henry ran for only 58 yards.
? Last three years, Tennessee is 7-5 ATS as road underdogs.
? Last 6+ years, Titans are 14-10-1 ATS vs NFC opponents.
? Titans are 2-6-1 ATS in last nine road openers.
? Under is 6-3 in last nine road openers.
? Seahawks (-3) won opener 28-16 at Indianapolis.
? Seattle ran for 140 yards, allowed only one play of 20+ yards.
? Seattle is 11-8-2 ATS in last 21 games as home favorites.
? Seahawks are 14-4 ATS in last 18 home openers.
? Seattle is 8-4-1 ATS last 13 games vs AFC teams.
? Under is 16-3-1 in last 20 home openers.
? Seahawks won six of last eight series games.
? Titans lost seven of nine visits to Seattle.
? Last eight series games were decided by 7 or fewer points.
Dallas (0-1) @ LA Chargers (1-0)
? Dallas lost opener 31-29 in Tampa; Prescott threw for 403 yards.
? Cowboys lost despite being +3 in turnovers- they were 9-17 on 3rd down.
? Dallas scored only 12 points on four red zone drives LW.
? Last 4+ years, Cowboys are 6-9-1 ATS as road underdogs.
? Dallas threw 58 passes, ran ball 18 times LW.
? Cowboys have three extra days to prep, playing on Thursday LW.
? Chargers (+1) won opener 20-16 at Washington.
? Bolts converted 14-19 third down plays last week.
? Chargers outgained Washington 424-259, throwing for 334 yards.
? Last three years, Bolts were 3-13-1 ATS as home favorites.
? Chargers are 7-4 ATS last 11 home openers.
? This is Chargers? first game at SoFi Stadium with fans.
? Chargers won last three series games.
? Dallas won four of its last six visits to San Diego.
Kansas City (1-0) @ Baltimore (0-1)
? Chiefs (-5.5) beat Cleveland 32-29 in their opener.
? Chiefs were outgained 457-397, were +2 in turnovers.
? KC averaged 8.5 yards/pass attempt, Browns 11.5.
? Last six years, Chiefs are 17-11-1 ATS as road favorites.
? KC won last four road openers (3-1 ATS).
? Over 4-2 in their last six road openers.
? Baltimore lost opener 33-27 (OT) in Las Vegas Monday nite.
? Ravens were outgained 491-406; Carr threw for 435 yards.
? Last three years, Ravens are 7-0-1 ATS as a single-digit dog.
? Last five years, Baltimore is 4-1 ATS as home dogs.
? Last three years, Ravens are 5-7-1 ATS coming off a loss.
? Ravens have been 0-2 once since 2006.
? Chiefs won last four series games (average total, 53.5)
? Chiefs won five of last six visits to Baltimore.
? Kansas City scored 32 ppg in last four series games.
Monday game
Detroit (0-1) @ Green Bay (0-1)
? Lions lost opener 41-33 LW, after trailing 38-10.
? 49ers averaged 11.5 yards/pass attempt against them.
? Goff threw for 338 yards in his Detroit debut.
? Last three years, Detroit is 9-8-1 ATS as road underdogs.
? Lions are 2-4 ATS in last six road openers.
? Goff is 0-8 SU (1-7 ATS) with coach other than McVay.
? Green Bay got whacked 38-3 by New Orleans LW.
? Packers ran ball for only 43 yards; they were minus-3 in turnovers.
? Green Bay was one of two teams not to score TD last week.
? Last two years, Packers were 10-6 ATS as home favorites.
? Green Bay is 11-3 ATS in last 14 home openers.
? Under is 3-1 in their last four home openers.
? Packers won last four series games (42-21/31-24 LY)
? Lions split their last six visits to Lambeau Field.
? Goff lost playoff game 32-18 here last year.
2021-2022 Season
NFL WORLD SPORTS BETTING CHAMPIONSHIP
WLT Pct Units Rank
ATS Picks ..........8-9-0 ..........47.05%..........- 9.50
O/U Picks ..........4-4-0 ..........50.00%...........-2.00
Totals.............12-13-0...........48.00%........- 11.50
BEST BETS:
ATS Picks.......... 3-7-0............ 42.85% .............-23.50
O/U Picks.......... 7-6-0.............53.84%............ + 2.00
Totals..............10-13-0............43.47%............- 21.50
UPDATED 09/16
NFL WORLD SPORTS BETTING CHAMPIONSHIP
WLT Pct Units Rank
ATS Picks ..........8-9-0 ..........47.05%..........- 9.50
O/U Picks ..........4-4-0 ..........50.00%...........-2.00
Totals.............12-13-0...........48.00%........- 11.50
BEST BETS:
ATS Picks.......... 3-7-0............ 42.85% .............-23.50
O/U Picks.......... 7-6-0.............53.84%............ + 2.00
Totals..............10-13-0............43.47%............- 21.50
UPDATED 09/16
- Sep 10, 2018
- 19,265
- 25
- 48
Gridiron Angles - Week 2
Vince Akins
Play ON ATS Trend of the Week
Matchup: Denver at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. ET)
-- The Broncos are 11-0 ATS since November 13, 2005 as a road favorite when they had at least 34 minutes time of possesion last game.
Play AGAINST ATS Trend of the Week
Matchup: Atlanta at Tampa Bay (4:05 p.m. ET)
-- The Buccaneers are 0-10-1 ATS since November 30, 2008 at home coming a win where they committed at least two turnovers.
Over OU Trend of the Week
Matchup: Buffalo at Miami (1:00 p.m. ET)
-- The Dolphins are 15-0 OU since December 2015 when they won by 1-5 points last game and their opponent did not lose by more than 24 points in their last game.
Under OU Trend of the Week
Matchup: Las Vegas at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. ET)
-- The Raiders are 0-9 OU since December 13, 2015 on the road coming off a home game where they forced at least 2 turnovers.
Super System of the Week
Matchup: Las Vegas at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. ET)
-- Teams that gained at least 500 total yards in week one are 16-4 ATS in Week two. Active on Las Vegas..
Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)
Vince Akins
Play ON ATS Trend of the Week
Matchup: Denver at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. ET)
-- The Broncos are 11-0 ATS since November 13, 2005 as a road favorite when they had at least 34 minutes time of possesion last game.
Play AGAINST ATS Trend of the Week
Matchup: Atlanta at Tampa Bay (4:05 p.m. ET)
-- The Buccaneers are 0-10-1 ATS since November 30, 2008 at home coming a win where they committed at least two turnovers.
Over OU Trend of the Week
Matchup: Buffalo at Miami (1:00 p.m. ET)
-- The Dolphins are 15-0 OU since December 2015 when they won by 1-5 points last game and their opponent did not lose by more than 24 points in their last game.
Under OU Trend of the Week
Matchup: Las Vegas at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. ET)
-- The Raiders are 0-9 OU since December 13, 2015 on the road coming off a home game where they forced at least 2 turnovers.
Super System of the Week
Matchup: Las Vegas at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. ET)
-- Teams that gained at least 500 total yards in week one are 16-4 ATS in Week two. Active on Las Vegas..
Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)
- Sep 10, 2018
- 19,265
- 25
- 48
NFL Week 2 Money Moves
Micah Roberts
Overreactions abound throughout the NFL Week 2 card with results from Week 1 still fresh in everyone?s mind and the public is betting as if those results are the gateway to winning this week.
The favorites went 3-13 ATS last week helping the sportsbooks to a large first-week win. Nine of the underdogs won outright. The average Joe has to regroup while sharps and the sportsbooks think they have a good read on their NFL ratings.
Of the 15 games we have between Sunday and Monday, three of them are double-digit favorites, seven are favorites of -6 or higher, and seven of them are hovering around 3, either 2.5, 3, or 3.5. The lone game not represented there is the Chiefs going from -3.5 to -4 at Baltimore for the Sunday Night Football game.
Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick said his 18 books across the local areas of Las Vegas have seen the most public action on the Rams, Cardinals, and Saints.
South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews gave out the same three teams. This is a combination of ticket counts and parlay money.
The public always seems to derive at the same teams based on what they saw last. After being jilted by their forever loves last week when the Bills, Chiefs, and Packers didn?t cover, they?ve found new loves.
We all want to win and win big which means the most impressive offenses usually get the public attention the next week and it?s amplified after the first week.
The Saints beat the Packers 38-3, the Cardinals won 38-13 at Tennessee, and the Rams won an isolated Sunday night game impressively, 34-14 against the Bears. That?s it, the psychological profile of the average Joe NFL bettor.
What about the popular regulars like the Chiefs and Bills?
?The public is on the Chiefs and Bills, just not as much as those three, but close,? said McCormick.
The public hates the Ravens this week more than the Chiefs so the Chiefs are still in even though they didn?t cover, but did come back to win at home against the Browns last week.
So what about the Packers this week after the Saints exposed Aaron Rodgers for still being in vacation mode?
No one jumped on the Monday night number where the Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Packers -10.5 and are -11 on Friday. Normally always a Packers supporter, I think we?ll see split sentiment from the public finding reason to take the Lions plus-double-digits.
McCormick says the sharpest play they?ve had this week is on the Eagles, Panthers, and Vikings, all three who are facing opponents coming off impressive wins.
The Saints are -3 -120 at the Panthers, the 49ers are -3 EVEN, and the Cardinals are -3.5 against the visiting Vikings
Andrews at the South Point also has sharp play on the Colts who are getting +3.5 from the visiting Rams.
So you can see what?s going on in Week 2. The sharps and public are severely divided on several games.
The Bills have been bet up from -3 at the Westgate to -3 -120 for their game at Miami. Miami comes off a 17-16 win at New England, the Bills just got upset at home after holding the Steelers to no points in the first half. Miami is content, Buffalo is hungry, embarrassed, motivated, and maybe even desperate for a win. Circa Sports has the Bills -3.5 -105 and the South Point is -3.5, flat, as they are with all their football spreads.
The Texans come off an impressive win as a home dog against the Jaguars, 37-21, and the sportsbooks are still making all the Browns fans lay -13 as the Texans visit.
The Bengals have been bet at +3 at Chicago down to +2.5. One team, the Bengals, looked good last week with a thrilling overtime win against the Vikings while the Bears stuck with Andy Dalton and got killed at Los Angeles. As of Friday, no word if Dalton or rookie Justin Fields will start.
How is it that everyone is so smart with the Bears QB decision but head coach Matt Nagy knows better? Is he watching different game film of Dalton from the past two seasons? No arm, can?t run, and can?t make quick decisions is a bad trio for any QB. Dalton has them all, but he?s a veteran so that helps him better the team.
The NFL is a now league and Nagy appears to be ready to sink the ship just to show he?s in charge and knows better. Bigger and better battles to fight than make the stand for Andy Dalton. First coach to be fired?
The big win by the Raiders means nothing this week at Pittsburgh except betting against the team that won an emotional game Monday night has a short week and plays Sunday at a 10 am PT start time. Short week off an emotional high. Steelers are -6 and -6.5 everywhere with the majority of bet tickets written on them.
The Broncos are getting sent flowers again by the public. Last week?s 27-13 win at the Giants impressed many, especially with QB Teddy Bridgewater converting third downs routinely. Everything fell into place. The Broncos have dropped from -6.5 to -6 at Jacksonville even though hardly anyone is taking the Jaguars.
One of the biggest moves of the week is the Patriots going from -3.5 to -6 for their game at the Jets. Bill Belichick off a loss doesn?t sound as scary a prospect for the opponent without Tom Brady as it did in the old days.
The Cardinals have dropped from 4-point home favorites to -3.5 against the Vikings. The main thing I worry about with the Cards is head coach Kliff Kingsbury being so tolerant in his team making the same dumb penalties over and over. There are no repercussions. It will continue and I'll bet they lose at least four games this season because of it happening at crucial moments.
Perhaps the most interesting game of Sunday is the Cowboys at Chargers which has been an evenly bet game although the Chargers went from -3 to -3.5 EVEN at the Superbook. The SuperBook took a sharp wager on the Chargers to push them off 3.
Stay the course my friends in the public. The books owe you one, all the best.
Micah Roberts
Overreactions abound throughout the NFL Week 2 card with results from Week 1 still fresh in everyone?s mind and the public is betting as if those results are the gateway to winning this week.
The favorites went 3-13 ATS last week helping the sportsbooks to a large first-week win. Nine of the underdogs won outright. The average Joe has to regroup while sharps and the sportsbooks think they have a good read on their NFL ratings.
Of the 15 games we have between Sunday and Monday, three of them are double-digit favorites, seven are favorites of -6 or higher, and seven of them are hovering around 3, either 2.5, 3, or 3.5. The lone game not represented there is the Chiefs going from -3.5 to -4 at Baltimore for the Sunday Night Football game.
Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick said his 18 books across the local areas of Las Vegas have seen the most public action on the Rams, Cardinals, and Saints.
South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews gave out the same three teams. This is a combination of ticket counts and parlay money.
The public always seems to derive at the same teams based on what they saw last. After being jilted by their forever loves last week when the Bills, Chiefs, and Packers didn?t cover, they?ve found new loves.
We all want to win and win big which means the most impressive offenses usually get the public attention the next week and it?s amplified after the first week.
The Saints beat the Packers 38-3, the Cardinals won 38-13 at Tennessee, and the Rams won an isolated Sunday night game impressively, 34-14 against the Bears. That?s it, the psychological profile of the average Joe NFL bettor.
What about the popular regulars like the Chiefs and Bills?
?The public is on the Chiefs and Bills, just not as much as those three, but close,? said McCormick.
The public hates the Ravens this week more than the Chiefs so the Chiefs are still in even though they didn?t cover, but did come back to win at home against the Browns last week.
So what about the Packers this week after the Saints exposed Aaron Rodgers for still being in vacation mode?
No one jumped on the Monday night number where the Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Packers -10.5 and are -11 on Friday. Normally always a Packers supporter, I think we?ll see split sentiment from the public finding reason to take the Lions plus-double-digits.
McCormick says the sharpest play they?ve had this week is on the Eagles, Panthers, and Vikings, all three who are facing opponents coming off impressive wins.
The Saints are -3 -120 at the Panthers, the 49ers are -3 EVEN, and the Cardinals are -3.5 against the visiting Vikings
Andrews at the South Point also has sharp play on the Colts who are getting +3.5 from the visiting Rams.
So you can see what?s going on in Week 2. The sharps and public are severely divided on several games.
The Bills have been bet up from -3 at the Westgate to -3 -120 for their game at Miami. Miami comes off a 17-16 win at New England, the Bills just got upset at home after holding the Steelers to no points in the first half. Miami is content, Buffalo is hungry, embarrassed, motivated, and maybe even desperate for a win. Circa Sports has the Bills -3.5 -105 and the South Point is -3.5, flat, as they are with all their football spreads.
The Texans come off an impressive win as a home dog against the Jaguars, 37-21, and the sportsbooks are still making all the Browns fans lay -13 as the Texans visit.
The Bengals have been bet at +3 at Chicago down to +2.5. One team, the Bengals, looked good last week with a thrilling overtime win against the Vikings while the Bears stuck with Andy Dalton and got killed at Los Angeles. As of Friday, no word if Dalton or rookie Justin Fields will start.
How is it that everyone is so smart with the Bears QB decision but head coach Matt Nagy knows better? Is he watching different game film of Dalton from the past two seasons? No arm, can?t run, and can?t make quick decisions is a bad trio for any QB. Dalton has them all, but he?s a veteran so that helps him better the team.
The NFL is a now league and Nagy appears to be ready to sink the ship just to show he?s in charge and knows better. Bigger and better battles to fight than make the stand for Andy Dalton. First coach to be fired?
The big win by the Raiders means nothing this week at Pittsburgh except betting against the team that won an emotional game Monday night has a short week and plays Sunday at a 10 am PT start time. Short week off an emotional high. Steelers are -6 and -6.5 everywhere with the majority of bet tickets written on them.
The Broncos are getting sent flowers again by the public. Last week?s 27-13 win at the Giants impressed many, especially with QB Teddy Bridgewater converting third downs routinely. Everything fell into place. The Broncos have dropped from -6.5 to -6 at Jacksonville even though hardly anyone is taking the Jaguars.
One of the biggest moves of the week is the Patriots going from -3.5 to -6 for their game at the Jets. Bill Belichick off a loss doesn?t sound as scary a prospect for the opponent without Tom Brady as it did in the old days.
The Cardinals have dropped from 4-point home favorites to -3.5 against the Vikings. The main thing I worry about with the Cards is head coach Kliff Kingsbury being so tolerant in his team making the same dumb penalties over and over. There are no repercussions. It will continue and I'll bet they lose at least four games this season because of it happening at crucial moments.
Perhaps the most interesting game of Sunday is the Cowboys at Chargers which has been an evenly bet game although the Chargers went from -3 to -3.5 EVEN at the Superbook. The SuperBook took a sharp wager on the Chargers to push them off 3.
Stay the course my friends in the public. The books owe you one, all the best.
Sunday?s 6-pack
Most games drawing 3+ walks:
160? Barry Bonds
117? Ted Williams
115? Babe Ruth
113? Eddie Yost
95? Rickey Henderson
86? Mickey Mantle
Quote of the Day
?It?s not viewed negatively. We?re a family. We?re not going to discuss the details, but we care. There?s passion. There?s frustration. Those are all emotions that are natural, and those things happen.?
Padres? manager Jayce Tingler, after tensions bubbled over in San Diego?s dugout Saturday
Sunday?s quiz
In the TV show Magnum PI, where did Thomas Magnum grow up?
Saturday?s quiz
Sun Bowl football game is played in El Paso every December.
Friday?s quiz
Rams have played in four Super Bowls; Kurt Warner started two of them. Vince Ferragamo and Jared Goff started the other two.
************************
Sunday?s Den: Wrapping up a college football Saturday
13) Alabama 31, Florida 29:
? Gators scored with 3:10 left, failed on 2-point conversion to tie game.
? Total yardage: 440-331, Florida- they ran for 245 yards.
? Alabama converted 7-13 third down plays.
12) Penn State 28, Auburn 20:
? Clifford completed 28-32 passes for 280 yards, two TD?s.
? Auburn converted 10-17 third down plays.
11) Western Michigan 44, Pittsburgh 41:
? WMU threw for 357 yards, was +3 in turnovers in their upset win.
? Pitt QB Pickett threw for 382 yards, six TD?s in losing cause.
? MAC teams are 6-12 ATS as road underdogs, but this was a good win for them.
10) Clemson 14, Georgia Tech 8:
? Game had a 1:52 lightning delay, just before halftime.
? Tech had ball inside Clemson 10 twice in last quarter, scored only 3 points.
? Tech outgained Clemson, 309-284.
? Last year, Tigers beat Tech 73-7.
9) Cincinnati 38, Indiana 24:
? Game swung when Indiana?s best defender got tossed for targeting.
? Trailing 21-17 late in 3rd quarter, Cincy ran kick back 99 yards for a TD.
? Indiana outgained Bearcats, 376-328, but turned ball over four times (-2).
8) BYU 27, Arizona State 17:
? ASU outgained Cougars, 426-361, but turned ball over four times (-2).
? BYU led 21-7 at half; Sun Devils cut it to 21-17 after three.
? BYU WR Romney caught six passes for 95 yards and a TD.
7) This week?s upsets:
? Northern Arizona (+26) 21, Arizona 19
? Western Michigan (+14.5) 44, Pitt 41
? Colorado State (+14.5) 22, Toledo 6
? Fresno State (+11) 40, UCLA 37
? Incarnate Word (+11) 42, Texas State 34
? East Carolina (+10) 42, Marshall 38
6) West Virginia 27, Virginia Tech 21:
? Game ended with Hokies on WVU?s 4-yard line.
? Tech had three drives stall inside WVU?s 10-yard line.
? West Virginia led 27-7 with 2:00 left in third quarter.
5) Wake Forest 35, Florida State 14:
? Seminoles are 0-3 for first time since 1976.
? FSU turned ball over six times (-4).
? Wake outgained Seminoles, 484-317.
4) SMU 39, Louisiana Tech 37:
? SMU scored on a 33-yard Hail Mary on last play.
? Mustangs outgained Tech, 578-483.
? Two QB?s combined for 746 passing yards, 9 TD passes.
3) East Carolina 42, Marshall 38:
? Marshall led 38-21 with 8:00 left in game.
? Pirates scored two TD?s in last 2:31 of game.
? Marshall outgained ECU, 647-563.
2) Fresno State 40, UCLA 37:
? 34 points were scored in last 8:10 of this game.
? Fresno scored on 13-yard TD pass with 0:14 left for the win.
? Bulldogs outgained UCLA, 569-395.
1) San Diego State 33, Utah 31 OT
? Utah scored two TD?s in last 4:16 to force OT.
? San Diego State threw ball for only 44 yards the whole game.
? Took three overtimes for Aztecs to come out on top.
Most games drawing 3+ walks:
160? Barry Bonds
117? Ted Williams
115? Babe Ruth
113? Eddie Yost
95? Rickey Henderson
86? Mickey Mantle
Quote of the Day
?It?s not viewed negatively. We?re a family. We?re not going to discuss the details, but we care. There?s passion. There?s frustration. Those are all emotions that are natural, and those things happen.?
Padres? manager Jayce Tingler, after tensions bubbled over in San Diego?s dugout Saturday
Sunday?s quiz
In the TV show Magnum PI, where did Thomas Magnum grow up?
Saturday?s quiz
Sun Bowl football game is played in El Paso every December.
Friday?s quiz
Rams have played in four Super Bowls; Kurt Warner started two of them. Vince Ferragamo and Jared Goff started the other two.
************************
Sunday?s Den: Wrapping up a college football Saturday
13) Alabama 31, Florida 29:
? Gators scored with 3:10 left, failed on 2-point conversion to tie game.
? Total yardage: 440-331, Florida- they ran for 245 yards.
? Alabama converted 7-13 third down plays.
12) Penn State 28, Auburn 20:
? Clifford completed 28-32 passes for 280 yards, two TD?s.
? Auburn converted 10-17 third down plays.
11) Western Michigan 44, Pittsburgh 41:
? WMU threw for 357 yards, was +3 in turnovers in their upset win.
? Pitt QB Pickett threw for 382 yards, six TD?s in losing cause.
? MAC teams are 6-12 ATS as road underdogs, but this was a good win for them.
10) Clemson 14, Georgia Tech 8:
? Game had a 1:52 lightning delay, just before halftime.
? Tech had ball inside Clemson 10 twice in last quarter, scored only 3 points.
? Tech outgained Clemson, 309-284.
? Last year, Tigers beat Tech 73-7.
9) Cincinnati 38, Indiana 24:
? Game swung when Indiana?s best defender got tossed for targeting.
? Trailing 21-17 late in 3rd quarter, Cincy ran kick back 99 yards for a TD.
? Indiana outgained Bearcats, 376-328, but turned ball over four times (-2).
8) BYU 27, Arizona State 17:
? ASU outgained Cougars, 426-361, but turned ball over four times (-2).
? BYU led 21-7 at half; Sun Devils cut it to 21-17 after three.
? BYU WR Romney caught six passes for 95 yards and a TD.
7) This week?s upsets:
? Northern Arizona (+26) 21, Arizona 19
? Western Michigan (+14.5) 44, Pitt 41
? Colorado State (+14.5) 22, Toledo 6
? Fresno State (+11) 40, UCLA 37
? Incarnate Word (+11) 42, Texas State 34
? East Carolina (+10) 42, Marshall 38
6) West Virginia 27, Virginia Tech 21:
? Game ended with Hokies on WVU?s 4-yard line.
? Tech had three drives stall inside WVU?s 10-yard line.
? West Virginia led 27-7 with 2:00 left in third quarter.
5) Wake Forest 35, Florida State 14:
? Seminoles are 0-3 for first time since 1976.
? FSU turned ball over six times (-4).
? Wake outgained Seminoles, 484-317.
4) SMU 39, Louisiana Tech 37:
? SMU scored on a 33-yard Hail Mary on last play.
? Mustangs outgained Tech, 578-483.
? Two QB?s combined for 746 passing yards, 9 TD passes.
3) East Carolina 42, Marshall 38:
? Marshall led 38-21 with 8:00 left in game.
? Pirates scored two TD?s in last 2:31 of game.
? Marshall outgained ECU, 647-563.
2) Fresno State 40, UCLA 37:
? 34 points were scored in last 8:10 of this game.
? Fresno scored on 13-yard TD pass with 0:14 left for the win.
? Bulldogs outgained UCLA, 569-395.
1) San Diego State 33, Utah 31 OT
? Utah scored two TD?s in last 4:16 to force OT.
? San Diego State threw ball for only 44 yards the whole game.
? Took three overtimes for Aztecs to come out on top.
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 19
Game Time(ET) Pick Units
LAR at IND 01:00 PM
LAR -4.5
U 48.0
+500 +500
SF at PHI 01:00 PM
PHI +3.0
O 49.0
+500 +500
HOU at CLE 01:00 PM
CLE -13.5
O 48.5
+500 +500
DEN at JAC 01:00 PM
DEN -6.0
+500
BUF at MIA 01:00 PM
BUF -3.5
U 48.0
+500 +500
NE at NYJ 01:00 PM
NYJ +5.5
O 43.0
+500 +500
NO at CAR 01:00 PM
CAR +3.0
U 45.0
+500 +500
CIN at CHI 01:00 PM
CHI -2.0
U 44.5
+500 +500
LV at PIT 01:00 PM
PIT -5.0
O 46.5
+500 +500
Game Time(ET) Pick Units
LAR at IND 01:00 PM
LAR -4.5
U 48.0
+500 +500
SF at PHI 01:00 PM
PHI +3.0
O 49.0
+500 +500
HOU at CLE 01:00 PM
CLE -13.5
O 48.5
+500 +500
DEN at JAC 01:00 PM
DEN -6.0
+500
BUF at MIA 01:00 PM
BUF -3.5
U 48.0
+500 +500
NE at NYJ 01:00 PM
NYJ +5.5
O 43.0
+500 +500
NO at CAR 01:00 PM
CAR +3.0
U 45.0
+500 +500
CIN at CHI 01:00 PM
CHI -2.0
U 44.5
+500 +500
LV at PIT 01:00 PM
PIT -5.0
O 46.5
+500 +500
LATE GAMES:
ATL at TB 04:05 PM
ATL +13.0
U 52.0
+500 +500
MIN at ARI 04:05 PM
ARI -3.5
U 51.0
+500 +500
TEN at SEA 04:25 PM
SEA -6.0
O 53.5
+500 +500
DAL at LAC 04:25 PM
LAC -3.0
O 55.0
+500 +500
ATL at TB 04:05 PM
ATL +13.0
U 52.0
+500 +500
MIN at ARI 04:05 PM
ARI -3.5
U 51.0
+500 +500
TEN at SEA 04:25 PM
SEA -6.0
O 53.5
+500 +500
DAL at LAC 04:25 PM
LAC -3.0
O 55.0
+500 +500
2021-2022 Season
NFL WORLD SPORTS BETTING CHAMPIONSHIP
WLT Pct Units Rank
ATS Picks .........13-19-0 ........40.62%..........- 39.50
O/U Picks ..........8-9-0 ..........47.05%...........- 9.50
Totals.............21-28-0...........42.85%........,,,- 49.00
BEST BETS:
ATS Picks........... 6-13-0............ 31.57% .............-41.50
O/U Picks..........11-11-0.............50.00%..............- 5.50
Totals...............17-24-0.............41,46%..............- 47.00
UPDATED ON 09/19/2021
NFL WORLD SPORTS BETTING CHAMPIONSHIP
WLT Pct Units Rank
ATS Picks .........13-19-0 ........40.62%..........- 39.50
O/U Picks ..........8-9-0 ..........47.05%...........- 9.50
Totals.............21-28-0...........42.85%........,,,- 49.00
BEST BETS:
ATS Picks........... 6-13-0............ 31.57% .............-41.50
O/U Picks..........11-11-0.............50.00%..............- 5.50
Totals...............17-24-0.............41,46%..............- 47.00
UPDATED ON 09/19/2021
Monday?s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday
Las Vegas 26, Pittsburgh 17:
? Raiders outgained Pittsburgh, 425-331.
? Las Vegas kicked FG?s on three of four first half drives.
? Raiders have 782 passing yards in first two games.
? Raiders are 7-1-1 ATS in last nine road openers.
? Steelers have been outscored 19-7 in first half this season.
? Pittsburgh ran ball 14 times for only 39 yards.
? Steelers have been outgained by 106.5 yards/game.
? Under is 9-4 in their last 13 home openers.
San Francisco 17, Philadelphia 11
? 49ers? first four drives: 20 plays, 49 yards, 3 first downs, 0 points.
? 49ers? last four drives: 43 plays, 267 yards, 19 first downs, 17 points.
? 49er?s two TD drives were 97-92 yards.
? San Francisco has two road wins despite being minus-2 in turnovers.
? Up 3-0 in 2nd quarter, Eagles were stopped on downs on SF?s 3-yard line.
? Both teams average starting field position; their own 19-yard line.
? Hurts threw for only 190 yards, ran for 82 more.
? Last 5+ years, under is 29-12 in Eagle home games.
Chicago 20, Cincinnati 17:
? Total yardage: 248-206, Bengals.
? Cincy lost despite a 13-yard edge in field position.
? Bengals turned ball over four times (minus-3)
? Bengals are 8-14 ATS last 22 games vs NFC opponents.
? Roquan Smith had a 53-yard pick-6 to put Bears up 17-3.
? Rookie QB Fields was 6-13/60 passing, ran 10 times for 31 yards.
? Dalton got hurt; he started 133 games for Bengals (70-61-2, 2011-19)
? Under is 5-1-1 in Bears? last seven home openers.
LA Rams 27, Indianapolis 24:
? Rams drove 70 yards in four plays to take lead for good early in 4th quarter.
? Cooper Kupp caught nine passes for 163 yards, two TD?s.
? Rams averaged 11.6 yards/pass attempt last week, 8.7 this week.
? Under McVay, Rams are 5-0 SU in road openers (3-2 ATS).
? Wentz got hurt; backup QB Eason saw first NFL action in final 2:25 of game.
? Indy had two empty trips to red zone in their first three drives.
? Colts got gift TD in 3rd quarter when Rams screwed up snap on a punt.
? Indy starts 0-2 at home; their next three games are on road.
Carolina 26, New Orleans 7:
? Saints? only TD came on a 18-yard drive early in 4th quarter.
? New Orleans ran only 43 plays for 128 yards.
? Saints had only six first downs, threw for only 80 yards.
? Saints are 2-10 ATS in last 12 road openers.
? Carolina ran 73 plays, converted 8-15 on third down.
? Panthers allowed total of 93 YR in first two games.
? McCaffrey has 59 touches in his first two games.
? Carolina beat Saints for only 2nd time in last 10 meetings.
Cleveland 31, Houston 21:
? QB Taylor got hurt; rookie Mills was 8-18/102 passing.
? Houston?s first three drives: 20 plays, 155 yards, 14 points.
? Houston?s last six drives: 39 plays, 154 yards, 7 points.
? Last 3+ years, Texans are 10-6 ATS as road underdogs.
? Browns were +3 in turnovers, had 12-yard edge in field position.
? Mayfield completed 19-21 passes, for 8.7 yards/attempt.
? Cleveland is 0-8 ATS as a favorite in their home opener.
? Browns are 11-16-1 ATS in last 28 games as home favorite.
Buffalo 35, Miami 0:
? Last two meetings, Bills beat Miami 56-26/35-0.
? Buffalo outscored first two opponents 24-0 in first half.
? Last 3+ years, Bills are 6-3 ATS as road favorite.
? McDermott is 18-12-1 ATS as a favorite.
? Tagovailoa got hurt; Brissett was 24-40/169 passing.
? Miami got to red zone three times, but didn?t score.
? Dolphins were outgained 707-475 in first two games.
? Dolphins have lost six games in row vs Buffalo.
Denver 23, Jacksonville 13:
? Denver opens up 2-0, with pair of road wins.
? Broncos had 11-yard edge in field position.
? Denver outgained Jaguars 398-198.
? Broncos converted only 2-11 third down plays.
? Jaguars have now lost 17 games in a row.
? Rookie QB Lawrence was only 14-33 passing for 118 yards.
? Jaguars? second TD came on a 102-yard kick return.
? Jaguars are already minus-5 in turnovers this year.
New England 25, NJ Jets 6:
? Patriots had 15-yard edge in field position.
? New England has three TD?s on first 19 drives this year.
? Patriots outgained first two foes 653-495
? Belichick is 21-6 vs rookie QB?s.
? Rookie QB Wilson threw four INTs, three on first four drives.
? Jets started 0-2 four of last five years.
? Jets lost 11 games in row to New England.
? Jets ran ball for 152 yards, but minus-4 in turnovers is no bueno.
Las Vegas 26, Pittsburgh 17:
? Raiders outgained Pittsburgh, 425-331.
? Las Vegas kicked FG?s on three of four first half drives.
? Raiders have 782 passing yards in first two games.
? Raiders are 7-1-1 ATS in last nine road openers.
? Steelers have been outscored 19-7 in first half this season.
? Pittsburgh ran ball 14 times for only 39 yards.
? Steelers have been outgained by 106.5 yards/game.
? Under is 9-4 in their last 13 home openers.
San Francisco 17, Philadelphia 11
? 49ers? first four drives: 20 plays, 49 yards, 3 first downs, 0 points.
? 49ers? last four drives: 43 plays, 267 yards, 19 first downs, 17 points.
? 49er?s two TD drives were 97-92 yards.
? San Francisco has two road wins despite being minus-2 in turnovers.
? Up 3-0 in 2nd quarter, Eagles were stopped on downs on SF?s 3-yard line.
? Both teams average starting field position; their own 19-yard line.
? Hurts threw for only 190 yards, ran for 82 more.
? Last 5+ years, under is 29-12 in Eagle home games.
Chicago 20, Cincinnati 17:
? Total yardage: 248-206, Bengals.
? Cincy lost despite a 13-yard edge in field position.
? Bengals turned ball over four times (minus-3)
? Bengals are 8-14 ATS last 22 games vs NFC opponents.
? Roquan Smith had a 53-yard pick-6 to put Bears up 17-3.
? Rookie QB Fields was 6-13/60 passing, ran 10 times for 31 yards.
? Dalton got hurt; he started 133 games for Bengals (70-61-2, 2011-19)
? Under is 5-1-1 in Bears? last seven home openers.
LA Rams 27, Indianapolis 24:
? Rams drove 70 yards in four plays to take lead for good early in 4th quarter.
? Cooper Kupp caught nine passes for 163 yards, two TD?s.
? Rams averaged 11.6 yards/pass attempt last week, 8.7 this week.
? Under McVay, Rams are 5-0 SU in road openers (3-2 ATS).
? Wentz got hurt; backup QB Eason saw first NFL action in final 2:25 of game.
? Indy had two empty trips to red zone in their first three drives.
? Colts got gift TD in 3rd quarter when Rams screwed up snap on a punt.
? Indy starts 0-2 at home; their next three games are on road.
Carolina 26, New Orleans 7:
? Saints? only TD came on a 18-yard drive early in 4th quarter.
? New Orleans ran only 43 plays for 128 yards.
? Saints had only six first downs, threw for only 80 yards.
? Saints are 2-10 ATS in last 12 road openers.
? Carolina ran 73 plays, converted 8-15 on third down.
? Panthers allowed total of 93 YR in first two games.
? McCaffrey has 59 touches in his first two games.
? Carolina beat Saints for only 2nd time in last 10 meetings.
Cleveland 31, Houston 21:
? QB Taylor got hurt; rookie Mills was 8-18/102 passing.
? Houston?s first three drives: 20 plays, 155 yards, 14 points.
? Houston?s last six drives: 39 plays, 154 yards, 7 points.
? Last 3+ years, Texans are 10-6 ATS as road underdogs.
? Browns were +3 in turnovers, had 12-yard edge in field position.
? Mayfield completed 19-21 passes, for 8.7 yards/attempt.
? Cleveland is 0-8 ATS as a favorite in their home opener.
? Browns are 11-16-1 ATS in last 28 games as home favorite.
Buffalo 35, Miami 0:
? Last two meetings, Bills beat Miami 56-26/35-0.
? Buffalo outscored first two opponents 24-0 in first half.
? Last 3+ years, Bills are 6-3 ATS as road favorite.
? McDermott is 18-12-1 ATS as a favorite.
? Tagovailoa got hurt; Brissett was 24-40/169 passing.
? Miami got to red zone three times, but didn?t score.
? Dolphins were outgained 707-475 in first two games.
? Dolphins have lost six games in row vs Buffalo.
Denver 23, Jacksonville 13:
? Denver opens up 2-0, with pair of road wins.
? Broncos had 11-yard edge in field position.
? Denver outgained Jaguars 398-198.
? Broncos converted only 2-11 third down plays.
? Jaguars have now lost 17 games in a row.
? Rookie QB Lawrence was only 14-33 passing for 118 yards.
? Jaguars? second TD came on a 102-yard kick return.
? Jaguars are already minus-5 in turnovers this year.
New England 25, NJ Jets 6:
? Patriots had 15-yard edge in field position.
? New England has three TD?s on first 19 drives this year.
? Patriots outgained first two foes 653-495
? Belichick is 21-6 vs rookie QB?s.
? Rookie QB Wilson threw four INTs, three on first four drives.
? Jets started 0-2 four of last five years.
? Jets lost 11 games in row to New England.
? Jets ran ball for 152 yards, but minus-4 in turnovers is no bueno.
[B]LATE GAME REVIEWS:[/B]
Baltimore 36, Kansas City 35:
? Chiefs averaged 8.3 yards/play; only 6 of their 49 plays were on 3rd down.
? KC turned ball over on two of their last three drives.
? Chiefs were outgained by 68 yards/game in first two games.
? Kelce caught 7 passes for 109 yards and a TD.
? Jackson ran 16 times for 107 yards, threw for 239 yards.
? On their last six drives, Ravens scored four TD?s, kicked a FG.
? Last 5+ years, Baltimore is 5-1 ATS as home underdogs.
? Ravens snapped a 4-game skid vs Kansas City.
Arizona 34, Minnesota 33
? Vikings missed 37-yard FG at gun; they also missed a PAT.
? Vikings? first four drives: 23 plays, 242 yards, 20 points.
? Vikings? last seven drives: 40 plays, 176 yards, 6 points.
? Minnesota lost first two games by total of four points.
? Arizona scored 72 points in winning its first two games.
? Redbirds scored nine TD?s on 23 drives in two games.
? Murray threw for 400 yards and three TD?s.
? Total yardage: Arizona 474-419.
Tampa Bay 48, Atlanta 25:
? Falcons gave up 80 points in losing first two games.
? Atlanta has been outscored 44-15 in 2nd half of games.
? Tampa Bay had 13-yard edge in field position.
? Last 4+ years, Atlanta is 8-13 ATS as road underdog.
? Buccaneers won first two games, scoring 79 points.
? Brady threw for 276 yards, five TD?s in this game.
? Three of their five TD drives were less than 50 yards.
? Tampa Bay had two pick-6?s in 4th quarter.
Tennessee 33, Seattle 30, OT
? Tennessee outscored Seahawks 17-0 over final 17:32 of game.
? Henry ran ball for 182 yards, three TD?s.
? Julio Jones caught six passes for 127 yards.
? Last 6+ years, Titans are 15-10-1 ATS vs NFC opponents.
? Seattle lost its first home opener since 2008.
? Seahawks? last 3 drives in 1st half: 12 plays, 164 yards, 21 points.
? Seahawks rest of game: 24 plays, 150 yards, 6 points.
? Their last nine games vs Titans were decided by 7 or fewer points.
Dallas 20, LA Chargers 17
? Dallas ran ball for 198 yards, averaged 7.0 yards/play.
? Cowboys scored 17 points on three red zone drives.
? Two games this season, Dallas is 15-27 on 3rd down.
? Better balance this week; Cowboys ran ball 31 times, threw 27 passes.
? Chargers? 7 drives: one TD, four FG?s, two INT?s.
? Bolts scored only 14 points on four red zone drives.
? Herbert threw for 338 yards, also threw two INT?s.
? Last 3+ years, Bolts are 3-14-1 ATS as home favorites.
Baltimore 36, Kansas City 35:
? Chiefs averaged 8.3 yards/play; only 6 of their 49 plays were on 3rd down.
? KC turned ball over on two of their last three drives.
? Chiefs were outgained by 68 yards/game in first two games.
? Kelce caught 7 passes for 109 yards and a TD.
? Jackson ran 16 times for 107 yards, threw for 239 yards.
? On their last six drives, Ravens scored four TD?s, kicked a FG.
? Last 5+ years, Baltimore is 5-1 ATS as home underdogs.
? Ravens snapped a 4-game skid vs Kansas City.
Arizona 34, Minnesota 33
? Vikings missed 37-yard FG at gun; they also missed a PAT.
? Vikings? first four drives: 23 plays, 242 yards, 20 points.
? Vikings? last seven drives: 40 plays, 176 yards, 6 points.
? Minnesota lost first two games by total of four points.
? Arizona scored 72 points in winning its first two games.
? Redbirds scored nine TD?s on 23 drives in two games.
? Murray threw for 400 yards and three TD?s.
? Total yardage: Arizona 474-419.
Tampa Bay 48, Atlanta 25:
? Falcons gave up 80 points in losing first two games.
? Atlanta has been outscored 44-15 in 2nd half of games.
? Tampa Bay had 13-yard edge in field position.
? Last 4+ years, Atlanta is 8-13 ATS as road underdog.
? Buccaneers won first two games, scoring 79 points.
? Brady threw for 276 yards, five TD?s in this game.
? Three of their five TD drives were less than 50 yards.
? Tampa Bay had two pick-6?s in 4th quarter.
Tennessee 33, Seattle 30, OT
? Tennessee outscored Seahawks 17-0 over final 17:32 of game.
? Henry ran ball for 182 yards, three TD?s.
? Julio Jones caught six passes for 127 yards.
? Last 6+ years, Titans are 15-10-1 ATS vs NFC opponents.
? Seattle lost its first home opener since 2008.
? Seahawks? last 3 drives in 1st half: 12 plays, 164 yards, 21 points.
? Seahawks rest of game: 24 plays, 150 yards, 6 points.
? Their last nine games vs Titans were decided by 7 or fewer points.
Dallas 20, LA Chargers 17
? Dallas ran ball for 198 yards, averaged 7.0 yards/play.
? Cowboys scored 17 points on three red zone drives.
? Two games this season, Dallas is 15-27 on 3rd down.
? Better balance this week; Cowboys ran ball 31 times, threw 27 passes.
? Chargers? 7 drives: one TD, four FG?s, two INT?s.
? Bolts scored only 14 points on four red zone drives.
? Herbert threw for 338 yards, also threw two INT?s.
? Last 3+ years, Bolts are 3-14-1 ATS as home favorites.
- Sep 10, 2018
- 19,265
- 25
- 48
Betting Recap - Week 2
Joe Williams
Overall Notes
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Titans +6.5 (ML +235) at Seahawks, 33-30 (OT)
Raiders +5.5 (ML +200) at Steelers, 26-17
Ravens +4 (ML +170) vs. Chiefs, 36-35
Bengals +3 (ML +145) at Chargers, 20-17
The largest favorites to cover
Buccaneers (-13) vs. Falcons, 48-25
Broncos (-6) at Jaguars, 23-13
Patriots (-5.5) at Jets, 25-6
Bills (-3.5) at Dolphins, 35-0
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week
The Sunday Night Football game was everything as advertised. We had a great shootout between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens (+4, ML +170) at M&T Bank Stadium in Charm City. QB Patrick Mahomes got the visitors off to a great start, tossing three touchdowns in the first three quarters, and the visitors led 35-24 heading to the final 15 minutes. The OVER (53.5) was already in the bag, so total bettors might have shut things off early. Hopefully not, as they missed an exciting finish.
If you were holding a Chiefs ticket, money line or spread, it was not quite as exciting. QB Lamar Jackson rallied the Ravens for 12 points in the final quarter, while the defense allowed nothing to the Chiefs, and Baltimore came back for the 36-35 win.
The Chiefs were driving inside of two minutes in Ravens territory, but RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire coughed up the football, a terrible time for his first ever lost fumble in the NFL. The Chiefs had all three timeouts left, and forced a fourth down, but Jackson converted the short-yardage situation to hold on.
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II
Backers of the Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) looked like they might be in pretty decent shape, as QB Russell Wilson hit WR Freddie Swain on a 68-yard pass and catch for score, making it 30-16 with 13:06 to go. The good feelings lasted all of 49 seconds, as RB Derrick Henry ripped off a 60-yard touchdown run with 12:17 to pare the lead to 30-23.
That man struck again with just 29 ticks left on the clock in regulation, tying the game at 30-30. The game ended up going to overtime.
Seattle blew the 14-point lead, and then the defense blew the game, as the Titans drove down for the 36-yard field goal from PK Randy Bullock. The Seahawks were 52-0 when holding a lead of 15 or more points at home, but the Titans fixed that, erasing a 24-9 lead at the half.
Total Recall
The lowest total on the board in Week 2 was the Thursday night tilt between the New York Giants-Washington Football Team (41). Things started off slow enough, as New York led 7-0 after 15 minutes. But Washington rallied to take a 14-10 lead at halftime. Things were on pace for OVER bettors, and they got even better. The teams combined for 35 points in the final 30 minutes, and the OVER was never in question.
The lowest total on the board for Sunday was the AFC East battle between the New England Patriots-New York Jets (43), and UNDER bettors cashed with the 25-6 win by the road team. The next lowest total, (44.5), also cashed as the Chicago Bears edged the Cincinnati Bengals 20-17 in a game which saw QB Andy Dalton exit early with an injury.
On the flip side, the late-afternoon window saw the Minnesota Vikings-Arizona Cardinals (50.5), Atlanta Falcons-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (51.5), Titans-Seahawks (54 - see above) and Dallas Cowboys-Los Angeles Chargers (55) games with totals all over 50. All but the Boys-Bolts game delivered high offensive numbers, as the Vikes-Cards had 47 points on the board by halftime, and the OVER was in the bag for the Falcons-Bucs by the end of three. The Cowboys and Chargers surprised with a defensive battle, although it did come down to a last-second field to determine a winner, but the UNDER was never in doubt there.
As far as primetime games, the OVER is a perfect 5-for-5 so far this season after two more high-scoring affairs Thursday and Sunday nights. The Monday night game between the Detroit Lions-Green Bay Packers (48.5) is also expected to see some big totals.
For the regular season the OVER is perfect 5-0 (100.0%) across 5 primetime games, with the MNF game pending. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.
Looking Ahead to Week 3
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
The Colts (0-2) and Titans (1-1) square off in the Music City in an important AFC South battle. The Titans are coming off a thrilling road win in Seattle.
Indianapolis has posted a 2-6 ATS mark in the past eight games inside the AFC South, but they are a solid 5-1 ATS in the past six games on the road. Tennessee has managed just a 1-4 ATS mark across the past five at Nissan Stadium. They're also just 5-14 ATS across the past 19 meetings with the Colts, including 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings in Nashville. The road team has also cashed in five straight meetings, with the OVER going 5-1 in the past six battles in Tennessee.
We'll be keeping an eye on QB Carson Wentz, who (surprise!) left Sunday's game with an injury.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
The Chargers (1-1) and Chiefs (1-1) will be battling to stay out of the basement in the AFC West, as both the Broncos (2-0) and Raiders (2-0) are unbeaten through two games. Kansas City nearly joined them at the top, but fell late in Baltimore.
The Bolts have cashed in five of the past six games overall, and they're a solid 7-3-1 ATS in the past 11 games on the road. The Chiefs have managed to go just 1-5-1 ATS in the previous seven games inside the division, and they're 2-10 ATS in the past 12 as a favorite, including the SNF loss in Balto.
In this series, the road team is a solid 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings, and the Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six visits to Arrowhead, too.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
The Bengals (1-1) and Steelers (1-1) square off, and it usually doesn't go well for Cinti. They're just 1-4 ATS in the past five trips to the Steel City, and 8-21-1 ATS in the past 30 meetings with the Steelers.
As far as the total, the UNDER is 4-1-1 in the past six meetings between these AFC North rivals, and 5-1-1 in the past seven battles at Heinz Field.
The UNDER is also 3-1-1 in Cincinnati's past five on the road, and 13-4-2 in the past 19 as a road underdog. Pittsburgh, who lost WR Diontae Johnson on the final play of their loss to the Raiders, might need to make adjustments on offense. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the past six for the Steelers as a home favorite, and 6-2-1 in the past nine overall as a fave.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
The Eagles (1-1) and Cowboys (1-1) wrap up the Week 3 schedule on MNF.
Philly has cashed in just one of the past seven games on the road, although they did win and cover in Atlanta in Week 1 as the UNDER connected. The Eagles are just 1-4 ATS in the past five trips to Jerry World, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven meetings overall. The favorite has hit in eight of the past 11 in this series, with the home team a perfect 5-for-5 against the number in the past five battles.
The Cowboys are just 1-7 ATS in the past eight as a favorite, and 1-5 ATS in the past six inside the division. They're also a dismal 5-11 ATS in the past 16 appearances on Monday night.
As far as the total, the UNDER is 4-0 in the past four MNF games for Philly.
Joe Williams
Overall Notes
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Titans +6.5 (ML +235) at Seahawks, 33-30 (OT)
Raiders +5.5 (ML +200) at Steelers, 26-17
Ravens +4 (ML +170) vs. Chiefs, 36-35
Bengals +3 (ML +145) at Chargers, 20-17
The largest favorites to cover
Buccaneers (-13) vs. Falcons, 48-25
Broncos (-6) at Jaguars, 23-13
Patriots (-5.5) at Jets, 25-6
Bills (-3.5) at Dolphins, 35-0
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week
The Sunday Night Football game was everything as advertised. We had a great shootout between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens (+4, ML +170) at M&T Bank Stadium in Charm City. QB Patrick Mahomes got the visitors off to a great start, tossing three touchdowns in the first three quarters, and the visitors led 35-24 heading to the final 15 minutes. The OVER (53.5) was already in the bag, so total bettors might have shut things off early. Hopefully not, as they missed an exciting finish.
If you were holding a Chiefs ticket, money line or spread, it was not quite as exciting. QB Lamar Jackson rallied the Ravens for 12 points in the final quarter, while the defense allowed nothing to the Chiefs, and Baltimore came back for the 36-35 win.
The Chiefs were driving inside of two minutes in Ravens territory, but RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire coughed up the football, a terrible time for his first ever lost fumble in the NFL. The Chiefs had all three timeouts left, and forced a fourth down, but Jackson converted the short-yardage situation to hold on.
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II
Backers of the Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) looked like they might be in pretty decent shape, as QB Russell Wilson hit WR Freddie Swain on a 68-yard pass and catch for score, making it 30-16 with 13:06 to go. The good feelings lasted all of 49 seconds, as RB Derrick Henry ripped off a 60-yard touchdown run with 12:17 to pare the lead to 30-23.
That man struck again with just 29 ticks left on the clock in regulation, tying the game at 30-30. The game ended up going to overtime.
Seattle blew the 14-point lead, and then the defense blew the game, as the Titans drove down for the 36-yard field goal from PK Randy Bullock. The Seahawks were 52-0 when holding a lead of 15 or more points at home, but the Titans fixed that, erasing a 24-9 lead at the half.
Total Recall
The lowest total on the board in Week 2 was the Thursday night tilt between the New York Giants-Washington Football Team (41). Things started off slow enough, as New York led 7-0 after 15 minutes. But Washington rallied to take a 14-10 lead at halftime. Things were on pace for OVER bettors, and they got even better. The teams combined for 35 points in the final 30 minutes, and the OVER was never in question.
The lowest total on the board for Sunday was the AFC East battle between the New England Patriots-New York Jets (43), and UNDER bettors cashed with the 25-6 win by the road team. The next lowest total, (44.5), also cashed as the Chicago Bears edged the Cincinnati Bengals 20-17 in a game which saw QB Andy Dalton exit early with an injury.
On the flip side, the late-afternoon window saw the Minnesota Vikings-Arizona Cardinals (50.5), Atlanta Falcons-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (51.5), Titans-Seahawks (54 - see above) and Dallas Cowboys-Los Angeles Chargers (55) games with totals all over 50. All but the Boys-Bolts game delivered high offensive numbers, as the Vikes-Cards had 47 points on the board by halftime, and the OVER was in the bag for the Falcons-Bucs by the end of three. The Cowboys and Chargers surprised with a defensive battle, although it did come down to a last-second field to determine a winner, but the UNDER was never in doubt there.
As far as primetime games, the OVER is a perfect 5-for-5 so far this season after two more high-scoring affairs Thursday and Sunday nights. The Monday night game between the Detroit Lions-Green Bay Packers (48.5) is also expected to see some big totals.
For the regular season the OVER is perfect 5-0 (100.0%) across 5 primetime games, with the MNF game pending. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.
Looking Ahead to Week 3
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
The Colts (0-2) and Titans (1-1) square off in the Music City in an important AFC South battle. The Titans are coming off a thrilling road win in Seattle.
Indianapolis has posted a 2-6 ATS mark in the past eight games inside the AFC South, but they are a solid 5-1 ATS in the past six games on the road. Tennessee has managed just a 1-4 ATS mark across the past five at Nissan Stadium. They're also just 5-14 ATS across the past 19 meetings with the Colts, including 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings in Nashville. The road team has also cashed in five straight meetings, with the OVER going 5-1 in the past six battles in Tennessee.
We'll be keeping an eye on QB Carson Wentz, who (surprise!) left Sunday's game with an injury.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
The Chargers (1-1) and Chiefs (1-1) will be battling to stay out of the basement in the AFC West, as both the Broncos (2-0) and Raiders (2-0) are unbeaten through two games. Kansas City nearly joined them at the top, but fell late in Baltimore.
The Bolts have cashed in five of the past six games overall, and they're a solid 7-3-1 ATS in the past 11 games on the road. The Chiefs have managed to go just 1-5-1 ATS in the previous seven games inside the division, and they're 2-10 ATS in the past 12 as a favorite, including the SNF loss in Balto.
In this series, the road team is a solid 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings, and the Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six visits to Arrowhead, too.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
The Bengals (1-1) and Steelers (1-1) square off, and it usually doesn't go well for Cinti. They're just 1-4 ATS in the past five trips to the Steel City, and 8-21-1 ATS in the past 30 meetings with the Steelers.
As far as the total, the UNDER is 4-1-1 in the past six meetings between these AFC North rivals, and 5-1-1 in the past seven battles at Heinz Field.
The UNDER is also 3-1-1 in Cincinnati's past five on the road, and 13-4-2 in the past 19 as a road underdog. Pittsburgh, who lost WR Diontae Johnson on the final play of their loss to the Raiders, might need to make adjustments on offense. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the past six for the Steelers as a home favorite, and 6-2-1 in the past nine overall as a fave.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
The Eagles (1-1) and Cowboys (1-1) wrap up the Week 3 schedule on MNF.
Philly has cashed in just one of the past seven games on the road, although they did win and cover in Atlanta in Week 1 as the UNDER connected. The Eagles are just 1-4 ATS in the past five trips to Jerry World, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven meetings overall. The favorite has hit in eight of the past 11 in this series, with the home team a perfect 5-for-5 against the number in the past five battles.
The Cowboys are just 1-7 ATS in the past eight as a favorite, and 1-5 ATS in the past six inside the division. They're also a dismal 5-11 ATS in the past 16 appearances on Monday night.
As far as the total, the UNDER is 4-0 in the past four MNF games for Philly.
2021-2022 Season
NFL WORLD SPORTS BETTING CHAMPIONSHIP
WLT Pct Units Rank
ATS Picks .........13-20-0 ........39.39%..........- 45.00
O/U Picks ..........9-9-0 ..........50.00%...........- 4.50
Totals.............22-29-0...........43.13%..........- 49.50
BEST BETS:
ATS Picks........... 6-14-0............ 30.00% .............-47.00
O/U Picks..........12-11-0.............52.17%..............- 0.50
Totals...............18-25-0.............41.86%..............- 47.50
UPDATED ON 09/20/2021
NFL WORLD SPORTS BETTING CHAMPIONSHIP
WLT Pct Units Rank
ATS Picks .........13-20-0 ........39.39%..........- 45.00
O/U Picks ..........9-9-0 ..........50.00%...........- 4.50
Totals.............22-29-0...........43.13%..........- 49.50
BEST BETS:
ATS Picks........... 6-14-0............ 30.00% .............-47.00
O/U Picks..........12-11-0.............52.17%..............- 0.50
Totals...............18-25-0.............41.86%..............- 47.50
UPDATED ON 09/20/2021
- Sep 10, 2018
- 19,265
- 25
- 48
Hot and Not Report - Week 3
Matt Blunt
It was a week too late to bring up the angle of fading teams before a TNF appearance as it didn't produce a win in Week 2. But it's still 2-2 ATS on the year and it's Jacksonville and Cincinnati on deck in Week 4. Both teams are catching points in Week 3 with Jacksonville a home dog vs Arizona and the Bengals on the road to face Pittsburgh.
Can't imagine there will be significant support early in the week for the Jags or Bengals, so if you are looking to keep on fading the pre-TNF teams, likely best to do it early this week.
The first tidbit for this week is in a similar boat as it had been rolling until a 2-4 ATS record in Week 3 last year took some air out of it's sails. But with a few teams already qualifying for this role as an ugly road underdog, bettors that prefer to wait until a little later in the week to get down are likely going to catch a few more points with at least a few of these teams.
Who's Hot
Week 3 road teams that are 0-2 ATS to start the year are 17-8 ATS in Week 3 the past five seasons, was 15-4 ATS before going 2-4 ATS in 2020
Talk about finding a reason to be on some pretty bad looking teams in Week 3, this angle that took it on the chin last year (2-4 ATS) has the Atlanta Falcons, New York Jets, and Washington Football team as qualified teams to play on this week in Week 3. They are three of the five NFL teams that have yet to cover a point spread this season, but with Kansas City and Jacksonville both playing at home this week, it's these three rough looking underdogs that you've got to try and make a case for.
The idea behind backing these teams is that the point spread is almost always going to be slightly inflated against these squads because they've got quite a bit working against them (on the road, yet to cover a spread). Most of the time these teams have also had at least one ugly loss in the opening two weeks as well, they could be winless in the SU market, and when put all of those things together, it's a role most aren't even remotely interested in wanting to back.
So point spreads shift the other way to make it that much more expensive to fade these teams. The end result is that these 0-2 ATS teams could be getting a point or two more than they probably should be and it's helped them produce such a great Week 3 ATS record over the years. With Washington, Atlanta, and the New York Jets in this role this year, it doesn't take much to land on the side of the coin that suggests maybe these point spreads are a little too far against these three teams. Washington (+9) is playing at Buffalo this week, while the Falcons (+3) vs the Giants, and the Jets (+11.5) are in Denver.
Two weeks of Jets games so far have not been pretty, and after the 4 INT's QB Zach Wilson threw in Week 2, making a case for getting behind this team is tough. But the qualifier about those four interceptions is they did come against Belichick and his defenses have feasted on rookie QB's from the outset.
Wilson threw one INT vs Carolina in Week 1 as he needed about a half in an NFL uniform to feel somewhat comfortable, and he did manage to throw for two TD's against that Carolina defense as well. That same unit that held down Week 1 offensive darling QB Jameis Winston to just a single garbage time TD on Sunday.
Asking a Teddy Bridgewater-led offense to cover a double digit point spread at home is another tough question in itself, but the challenge doesn't get any easier for Wilson going against that Broncos defense. It's almost the perfect example of a potential play here where it really is the concept of this run (17-8 ATS) vs what your eyes have told you about how bad the Jets have been so far.
Washington and Atlanta ATS (and even ML for high risk tolerance) are the far better plays this week for this role though, as I would not be surprised to see either of them leave Week 3 with a SU win as well.
Atlanta's the more likely team to do so given the much smaller point spread, as visiting the 0-2 NY Giants shouldn't be nearly the test Washington has facing a preseason Super Bowl contender in the Buffalo Bills. However, if the argument is that these 0-2 ATS road teams are ones that tend to be catching more points than they probably should, Washington's the team that is more in line with that idea, and they get extra rest to boot.
Atlanta's facing the only other team with extra rest (NYG) heading into Week 3, complicating that situation even more, with Washington's opponent ? Buffalo ? coming off a shutout win on Sunday and arguably now looking much better than they possibly are, at least defensively, off that result.
So taking the points with Washington and Atlanta is something I've done this week, with a little more stake on the Washington side of things given the bigger point spread and slightly more favorable role (extra rest).
Who's Not
Non-Conference games are 3-7 O/U this season. Games for Week 3 include Carolina vs. Houston, Washington vs. Buffalo, Arizona vs. Jacksonville, Baltimore vs. Detroit, Chicago vs. Cleveland, New Orleans vs. New England
NFL games are 15-17 O/U overall this year even with prime time games being a perfect 6-0 O/U through two full weeks. It tells you that Sunday's have been for 'under' players so far (9-17 O/U Sunday afternoon games), and a big part of that flip has to be these non-conference affairs.
For years these were great 'over' plays as the thinking was a lack of familiarity and a lack of hatred for the opponent generally leads to tough days on defense for teams. They are either getting burned/fooled and/or aren't as focused in prep for the game or on the field on Sunday and it led to points each way. That just hasn't been the case this year though, as five of those seven 'unders' non-conference have seen have finished with 40 or fewer points. Non-conference games are averaging 44.3 points per game so far, and it seems at least early on, the numbers have made an adjustment.
Out of the six AFC-NFC clashes that are scheduled for Week 3, four of them currently have totals within a FG of that 44.3 points/game average. The TNF clash between Carolina and Houston is sitting at 43.5, with Washington/Buffalo at 45.5, Chicago/Cleveland at 46.5, and New Orleans/New England at 42 all playing on Sunday. Non-conference games finished 31-33 O/U overall a season ago, so it's not like these games being lower scoring is out of the blue, but sometimes a lack of familiarity can lead to doubt in trusting what teams believe they can run offensively too and that plays a part in these lower scoring results.
We do have two games that have current totals that are much higher than that 44.3 pts/game average and it's the Ravens/Lions game that may be the better option to look low on.
The Baltimore/Detroit total is around 49.5 currently as it's two teams off very different results in prime time. Baltimore needed a 2 nd half surge to just barely get by the Chiefs in a great game, while the Lions got blanked in the 2 nd half on MNF to turn a 17-14 halftime lead into a 35-17 loss that didn't even see Detroit cover the +11.5.
How each team reacts off those results is going to be interesting, as Detroit's defensive numbers aren't good, but it's a completely different task shutting down this run-heavy Ravens attack compared to them getting beat in the passing game like they have for the most part in the first two weeks.
You know Baltimore's going to continue to rely on that running game and that doesn't necessarily hurt an 'under' look here, especially when this defense could feel like they are playing a high school team after playing Mahomes. If this number continues to creep upwards during the week, the 'under' is going to be added.
Matt Blunt
It was a week too late to bring up the angle of fading teams before a TNF appearance as it didn't produce a win in Week 2. But it's still 2-2 ATS on the year and it's Jacksonville and Cincinnati on deck in Week 4. Both teams are catching points in Week 3 with Jacksonville a home dog vs Arizona and the Bengals on the road to face Pittsburgh.
Can't imagine there will be significant support early in the week for the Jags or Bengals, so if you are looking to keep on fading the pre-TNF teams, likely best to do it early this week.
The first tidbit for this week is in a similar boat as it had been rolling until a 2-4 ATS record in Week 3 last year took some air out of it's sails. But with a few teams already qualifying for this role as an ugly road underdog, bettors that prefer to wait until a little later in the week to get down are likely going to catch a few more points with at least a few of these teams.
Who's Hot
Week 3 road teams that are 0-2 ATS to start the year are 17-8 ATS in Week 3 the past five seasons, was 15-4 ATS before going 2-4 ATS in 2020
Talk about finding a reason to be on some pretty bad looking teams in Week 3, this angle that took it on the chin last year (2-4 ATS) has the Atlanta Falcons, New York Jets, and Washington Football team as qualified teams to play on this week in Week 3. They are three of the five NFL teams that have yet to cover a point spread this season, but with Kansas City and Jacksonville both playing at home this week, it's these three rough looking underdogs that you've got to try and make a case for.
The idea behind backing these teams is that the point spread is almost always going to be slightly inflated against these squads because they've got quite a bit working against them (on the road, yet to cover a spread). Most of the time these teams have also had at least one ugly loss in the opening two weeks as well, they could be winless in the SU market, and when put all of those things together, it's a role most aren't even remotely interested in wanting to back.
So point spreads shift the other way to make it that much more expensive to fade these teams. The end result is that these 0-2 ATS teams could be getting a point or two more than they probably should be and it's helped them produce such a great Week 3 ATS record over the years. With Washington, Atlanta, and the New York Jets in this role this year, it doesn't take much to land on the side of the coin that suggests maybe these point spreads are a little too far against these three teams. Washington (+9) is playing at Buffalo this week, while the Falcons (+3) vs the Giants, and the Jets (+11.5) are in Denver.
Two weeks of Jets games so far have not been pretty, and after the 4 INT's QB Zach Wilson threw in Week 2, making a case for getting behind this team is tough. But the qualifier about those four interceptions is they did come against Belichick and his defenses have feasted on rookie QB's from the outset.
Wilson threw one INT vs Carolina in Week 1 as he needed about a half in an NFL uniform to feel somewhat comfortable, and he did manage to throw for two TD's against that Carolina defense as well. That same unit that held down Week 1 offensive darling QB Jameis Winston to just a single garbage time TD on Sunday.
Asking a Teddy Bridgewater-led offense to cover a double digit point spread at home is another tough question in itself, but the challenge doesn't get any easier for Wilson going against that Broncos defense. It's almost the perfect example of a potential play here where it really is the concept of this run (17-8 ATS) vs what your eyes have told you about how bad the Jets have been so far.
Washington and Atlanta ATS (and even ML for high risk tolerance) are the far better plays this week for this role though, as I would not be surprised to see either of them leave Week 3 with a SU win as well.
Atlanta's the more likely team to do so given the much smaller point spread, as visiting the 0-2 NY Giants shouldn't be nearly the test Washington has facing a preseason Super Bowl contender in the Buffalo Bills. However, if the argument is that these 0-2 ATS road teams are ones that tend to be catching more points than they probably should, Washington's the team that is more in line with that idea, and they get extra rest to boot.
Atlanta's facing the only other team with extra rest (NYG) heading into Week 3, complicating that situation even more, with Washington's opponent ? Buffalo ? coming off a shutout win on Sunday and arguably now looking much better than they possibly are, at least defensively, off that result.
So taking the points with Washington and Atlanta is something I've done this week, with a little more stake on the Washington side of things given the bigger point spread and slightly more favorable role (extra rest).
Who's Not
Non-Conference games are 3-7 O/U this season. Games for Week 3 include Carolina vs. Houston, Washington vs. Buffalo, Arizona vs. Jacksonville, Baltimore vs. Detroit, Chicago vs. Cleveland, New Orleans vs. New England
NFL games are 15-17 O/U overall this year even with prime time games being a perfect 6-0 O/U through two full weeks. It tells you that Sunday's have been for 'under' players so far (9-17 O/U Sunday afternoon games), and a big part of that flip has to be these non-conference affairs.
For years these were great 'over' plays as the thinking was a lack of familiarity and a lack of hatred for the opponent generally leads to tough days on defense for teams. They are either getting burned/fooled and/or aren't as focused in prep for the game or on the field on Sunday and it led to points each way. That just hasn't been the case this year though, as five of those seven 'unders' non-conference have seen have finished with 40 or fewer points. Non-conference games are averaging 44.3 points per game so far, and it seems at least early on, the numbers have made an adjustment.
Out of the six AFC-NFC clashes that are scheduled for Week 3, four of them currently have totals within a FG of that 44.3 points/game average. The TNF clash between Carolina and Houston is sitting at 43.5, with Washington/Buffalo at 45.5, Chicago/Cleveland at 46.5, and New Orleans/New England at 42 all playing on Sunday. Non-conference games finished 31-33 O/U overall a season ago, so it's not like these games being lower scoring is out of the blue, but sometimes a lack of familiarity can lead to doubt in trusting what teams believe they can run offensively too and that plays a part in these lower scoring results.
We do have two games that have current totals that are much higher than that 44.3 pts/game average and it's the Ravens/Lions game that may be the better option to look low on.
The Baltimore/Detroit total is around 49.5 currently as it's two teams off very different results in prime time. Baltimore needed a 2 nd half surge to just barely get by the Chiefs in a great game, while the Lions got blanked in the 2 nd half on MNF to turn a 17-14 halftime lead into a 35-17 loss that didn't even see Detroit cover the +11.5.
How each team reacts off those results is going to be interesting, as Detroit's defensive numbers aren't good, but it's a completely different task shutting down this run-heavy Ravens attack compared to them getting beat in the passing game like they have for the most part in the first two weeks.
You know Baltimore's going to continue to rely on that running game and that doesn't necessarily hurt an 'under' look here, especially when this defense could feel like they are playing a high school team after playing Mahomes. If this number continues to creep upwards during the week, the 'under' is going to be added.
