NFL Divisional Playoff games this weekend

Senor Capper

is feeling it
Channel Member
Nov 14, 2000
24,639
104
63
Vegas
www.SenorCapper.com
(copy & paste)


We?ve got four outstanding NFL Divisional Playoff games this weekend with two large favorites in the AFC and two small ones in the NFC. Let?s take a look at the matchups and see if we can find a few winners.

Ravens at Broncos (-8?, 46)


We saw this game in Week 15 at Baltimore with the Broncos winning easily, 34-17. The tide turned in the final seconds of the first half with Denver up 10-0, and Baltimore inside Denver?s 5 getting ready to make it 10-7. Joe Flacco threw an interception and the Broncos ran it back 98 yards for a score. Just like that it was 17-0 and 31-3 heading into the fourth quarter.

That was the Ravens third loss in a row, in what could have been their fifth straight. Remember the 3-point wins against Pittsburgh and the Chargers (Ray Rice 4th and 29 play). It may be premature to say they are out of their slump, but beating the Colts last week goes a long ways, especially considering it was the first time the Ravens had Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed on the field at the same time.

The Broncos have won 11 in a row and covered four straight. The only question is having the week off. We?ve seen top seeded teams very vulnerable in the last 7 seasons with 5 of the Wild Card teams going on to win the Super Bowl.

Prediction: Broncos 34, Ravens 29




Packers at 49ers (-3, 45?)


These two played in Week 1 at Lambeau Field with the 49ers winning 30-22 as 6-point underdogs. A lot has changed since, at least for the 49ers. Despite QB Alex Smith being very productive, coach Jim Harbaugh kept visualizing Smith?s talents being the difference between simply getting to the NFC Championship ? like last season ? to actually winning the game.

Enter Colin Kaepernick. While he can make plays that Smith can?t with both his legs and arm, there is something to be said for Alex playing his role and not turning the ball over, the cornerstone of Harbaugh?s 49ers. If Harbaugh?s gamble of putting all his eggs in one basket fails, he?ll be ridiculed far worse than he?s ever felt at any time in career.

This is a huge game for Harbaugh, and his team knows it. The Packers have started to run the ball a little better, but their weakness on the offensive line is glaring, and part of the reason they started 2-3. They can?t give Aaron Rodgers the protection he needs to succeed against teams with a good pass rush, and they?ll be facing one of the fiercest pass defenses in the league.

If you look up and down the Packers schedule, outside of clobbering the Texans, they don?t have many quality wins and their 38-10 loss to the Giants amplifies the point more regarding the Packers offensive line. This should be one of the best games of the weekend.

Prediction: 49ers 37, Packers 28.




Seahawks at Falcons (-2?, 46)


They call Falcons QB Matt Ryan ?Matty Ice? and that title has worked well as he?s gone 33-6 at home as a starter. If we had to label him for his postseason performance, his nickname would be ?Matty Mush.? He?s 0-3 in the playoffs and the combination between that and just being perceived as an ordinary ?good? team has them as a short home favorite over the Seahawks.

This is a rare situation where the visiting team in the divisional playoff round is rated higher than the No. 1 seed. But the perception is that the Seahawks are better and have played much tougher competition along the way. The Falcons beat the Broncos in Week 2 before Manning got his groove going. Atlanta then beat the Redskins before they got going, and then they beat?.wait, I guess that?s it. No one else they beat made the playoffs.

On the other side we have a team that is rolling with a 6-game winning streak with wins over the Packers, Patriots, 49ers and Redskins. Seattle has been outstanding defensively all season long, but it was when rookie QB Russell Wilson started getting comfortable that they started to look like team that could make the Super Bowl.

The Falcons have too much losing baggage within the locker room between coach Mike Smith, Ryan and the 0-for-lifetime playoff record of Tony Gonzalez.

Prediction: Seahawks 23, Falcons 13.





Texans at Patriots (-9, 48)

I?d like to believe a lot has changed with Texans since losing at New England, 42-14, in Week 14. I want to take the points badly, but Matt Schaub scares me. On the positive side, we have a great running game with Arian Foster. Even though the Pats held him to 46 yards rushing in their earlier meeting, it?s a great starting point to find value in the dog.

We know that if Foster and the offensive line can get going. They can control the clock and flow of the game despite Schaub. The Texans were considered an elite team before losing 3 of their final 4 regular season games.

Those losses are part of the reason to find fault with Houston this week. They had the top seed in the playoffs wrapped up, then the No. 2 seed. All they had to do was win one of their final two and they couldn?t. They bounced back last week, which perhaps shook them out of their misery. It seems like too tough of a task, mainly because Schaub is playing in only his second playoff game.

The Texans defensive makeup doesn?t scare Tom Brady. In order to beat the Patriots, Brady has to be rattled. Look for the largest margin of victory on the weekend to come in this game.

Prediction: Patriots 38, Texans 17.
 

Senor Capper

is feeling it
Channel Member
Nov 14, 2000
24,639
104
63
Vegas
www.SenorCapper.com
NFL's Elite Eight except Falcons lack respect

NFL's Elite Eight except Falcons lack respect



With three more NFL playoff weekends still ahead of us, there are eight teams still standing; the top quartile of the league. This week, I?ll discuss all eight, but first a brief history lesson for the Divisional Round.

If you?re looking for active trends for next weekend?s round of the playoffs, you?re not going to find much when it comes to sides. Over the past 10 years, the rested team has only gone 17-23 ATS in this round, but we?ve seen some dramatic swings.

From 2006-2008, the teams coming off a bye went only 2-10 ATS in this round. In 2009, the teams coming off their bye went 3-1 ATS. In each of the last two years, it?s been a 2-2 ATS split. In other words, there?s not much of a trend.

It?s a similar story with totals. Over the last 10 years, there?s no prevailing trend to report, with 21 UNDERS compared to 19 OVERS. But the last two years, it?s 7-1 to the OVER. In the two years before that, it was 6-2 UNDER. In the two years prior to that, it was 2-2 both times. Again, there?s not much of a trend.

Now to the Elite Eight 2013 NFL teams.

Baltimore Ravens


Do we give the Ravens credit for being the only team in the NFL to win at least one playoff game in each of the last five seasons? Or do we rip the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco combination for never even reaching a Super Bowl, let alone winning one, despite all those postseason victories?

Do we give Baltimore credit for holding the Colts to just 9 points in their Wild Card Round win and cover? Or do we rip the Ravens for allowing a rookie QB to pick them apart as the Colts finished No. 2 among the eight teams that played last weekend in total yards while holding the ball for more than 37 minutes?

Judging by the 9-point spread for their upcoming game at Denver, it?s clear that the betting markets are rather bearish on Baltimore.




Denver Broncos


Peyton Manning lost in the playoffs as the higher seed in 1999, following a first round bye week. He lost his first round playoff game as a Wild Card in 2000. He didn?t make the playoffs in 2001. In ?02, he lost in the Wild Card round. In ?03 and ?04 he lost to Tom Brady and the Patriots in the playoffs. In ?05, the Colts lost at home following their bye to the lower seeded Steelers as ten point favorites.

Following Indy?s Super Bowl title in 2006, in ?07 the Colts lost at home as the higher seeded team to San Diego, following a bye. In 2008, they lost as favorites to the Chargers again in their first playoff game as 10? point chalk. In 2009, Manning lost as a favorite in the Super Bowl. In 2010, he lost as a home favorite as the higher seeded team in the opening round.

Head coach John Fox?s last try as a home favorite in the postseason was a 33-13 defeat at home to Arizona as 10-point chalk with the Panthers, following Carolina?s bye in 2008. And it?s surely worth noting that Denver has a losing SU and ATS record against the five playoff teams they faced during the regular season.



Green Bay Packers

The Packers lost 37-20 at home to the Giants as 8-point favorites in their first playoff game last year, following the bye week. The previous year, Green Bay won three straight postseason road games, including a blowout at Atlanta in this round, to reach (and win) the Super Bowl.

Nine of the Packers last 11 opponents have been held to 20 points or less; a defense that has improved by leaps and bounds since their Week 1 matchup against the 49ers. And with a healthy receiving corps for the first time all year, Aaron Rodgers connected with an NFL playoff record 10 different receivers in a win over Minnesota last weekend.

Prop bet players surely noticed, however, that with 10 different receiving options, every one of those wideouts that had an Over/Under for total receiving yards posted stayed UNDER the number.



San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers led the NFL with a +28 turnover margin last year. This year, San Fran was +9 TO, but led the NFL in a stat that the betting markets respect a lot more? yards per play differential. Jim Harbaugh?s squad finished the regular season with a +1.3 yards per play differential. Only one other team ? Denver?finished with a better than 0.7 ypp margin. And San Fran compiled those stats despite facing a much tougher than average slate of foes.

Last year, the Niners lost out on a trip to the Super Bowl thanks to a fourth quarter special teams miscue against the Giants. Anyone who?s watched San Fran closely down the stretch this year knows full well that those special teams issues have not been fixed.



Seattle Seahawks

Any team with a rookie QB that falls down by 14 points on the road in the playoffs, loses a fumble from their star veteran running back at the one yard line and still wins the game by a double digit margin is clearly doing something right.



Atlanta Falcons

The betting markets aren?t going to respect the Falcons until Matt Ryan and Mike Smith finally gets the monkey off their backs with a playoff win or two or three. It?s surely worth noting that Atlanta was outgained on a yards per play basis for the entire season. The only other playoff team to do that? Indy.

Atlanta?s -1.1 yards per rush differential between what they gain and what they allow ranked No. 31 in the NFL this year. The No. 32 team? Those same Colts, who did not fare well in their playoff loss at Baltimore.



Houston Texans

The Texans defense was the best unit on the field in their win over Cincinnati, holding the Bengals offense to a pair of field goals. Coach Gary Kubiak has covered the spread in all three playoff games in the Texans history over the past two years, including their two wins over Marvin Lewis?s squad and a 7-point loss at Baltimore in this round last year as 7.5 point underdogs.

It?s surely worth noting that the Texans were in the +4.5 to +5.5 range when they travelled to New England for Monday Night Football in December. Since that time, the betting markets have been downgrading Houston on a near weekly basis; hence the dramatic adjustment compared to the game that was played on the same field just last month.



New England Patriots

In 2010, the Patriots finished the regular season with a +28 turnover ratio; best in the NFL by a wide margin (the No. 2 team was +17). In 2011, New England finished the regular season with a +17 turnover ratio. Nobody else in the AFC was better than +7 that year. This year, the Pats led the league with a +25 margin again. The No. 2 team in the AFC, Houston, was only +12. Turnovers are not completely random ? teams with good quarterbacks are supposed to win the turnover battle more often than not.

If you?ve been expecting the Patriots? regular season good fortune to carry over into the playoffs, you?ve been losing bets consistently. Dating back to the Pats loss to the Colts in the 2006 AFC Championship Game, New England is on a 1-8 ATS run in the postseason (the lone win coming against the Broncos last year) in large part because they haven?t been winning the turnover battle in the playoffs the same way they?ve been winning it in the regular season.

It?s also worth noting that the Patriots lost at home in their first playoff game in both 2010 and 2011 prior to last year?s Super Bowl run. The last Super Bowl loser to return to the big game the following year? C?mon, you know the answer to this one, because it happened three years in a row ? the Buffalo Bills in Super Bowls XXVI, XXVII and XXVIII.

In other words, it?s been a while!
 

Senor Capper

is feeling it
Channel Member
Nov 14, 2000
24,639
104
63
Vegas
www.SenorCapper.com
Seattle Seahawks are NFL's new darling

Seattle Seahawks are NFL's new darling

If you were in any sports book this weekend you witnessed the power of the NFL. Wild Card weekend is an understatement.

Schedule sticking out of back pockets with a beer or hot dog in your free hand and adding commentary after each play. We have a good mix of old standards and an added new twist to even make it busier if we can physically fit everyone in.

Make no mistake, the Seahawks are the new darling. Seattle is drawing attention and money fits like a solid two teamer. Throw in the resurgence of Peyton Manning who has made his Broncos the winner in ticket count this year.

Northern Nevada books have come out of hibernation in the last few years as the 49ers have now become relevant. Ticket count in the William Hill books past Tonopah will be a 5-1 favorite in ticket count and cheese heads will get swallowed up by post time.

Get in the mix now because in a short 30 days this season will be an afterthought. We will bide our time with normal niche business between now and March Madness, but the playoffs have a life of their own.

Well at least hockey is back? Take care, Jimmy V.


NFL & NCAA Favorites are 15-1 ATS since New Years !!
:facepalm:
 

Senor Capper

is feeling it
Channel Member
Nov 14, 2000
24,639
104
63
Vegas
www.SenorCapper.com
Top seeds in AFC and NFC have key edge

Top seeds in AFC and NFC have key edge




As the playoffs begin, those who earned the top two seeds in each conference have a key edge, as they get a bye the first week while watching the others duke it out.

Sitting at home this past weekend were the Patriots, Broncos, Packers and Falcons. Why is that significant? A year ago the four bye teams were the Ravens, Patriots, Packers and 49ers. The Pats made the Super Bowl, while the 49ers made it to the NFC title game and nearly won.

This season the Falcons were 18-1 and the surprising Seahawks (there?s one in every crowd) 50-1. The Broncos were also 50-1, before Peyton Manning signed with them.

Gaining the bye is an advantage for teams to not only rest injured players, but to have two weeks to put together a game plan. Since 1990, 33 first and second round seeds have filled 44 Super Bowl slots. The No. 1 and 2 seeds, rested after the bye, have gone 60-20 in their first games in the divisional round.

A year ago the rested teams went 3-1 SU/2-2 ATS. The Patriots blew out Denver (45-10) while the 15-1 Packers got upset by the Giants. Two years ago the rested teams were 2-2 SU/ATS, and three years ago the rested teams went 3-1 SU/ATS, with blowout wins by three teams. Only the Chargers (17-14 loss to the Jets) fell apart.

Four years ago was one of the unusual seasons, with three of the four bye teams losing that first game (Giants, Panthers, Titans). The Steelers, though, not only won and advanced but ended up winning the Super Bowl.

The No. 1 seeded team in four of the last eight years in the NFC (Eagles, Seahawks, Bears, Saints) wound up in the Super Bowl. In the AFC it?s been a different story, as the only recent No. 1 seeds to make it were the 2003, ?07, ?11 Patriots and the ?09 Colts.

Two years ago the Pats lost to the NY Jets.In 2001 and ?04 the Steelers were the No. 1 AFC seed and fell short, along with the 14-2 Colts and Chargers, plus the 13-3 Titans in three of the previous four years.

Here?s a look at the four teams that come into this weekend?s playoff games rested with home field.

Broncos
(13-3 SU, 10-5-1 ATS): Denver has been a great story with Manning (37 TDs, 11 INTs) upgrading the offense, No. 5 in the NFL in passing with 283 yards per game and No. 16 in rushing. The comeback Player of the Year award is between him and Adrian Peterson.

What?s even more amazing about Denver, though, is the defense. They?ve been soft against the run the last few years, but improved remarkably in 2012, ranked No. 3 both against the pass and run. Denver hasn?t lost since Oct. 7, a 31-21 defeat at New England. They lost in September to Atlanta (27-21) and Houston (31-25).

Note: The Broncos are 18-35-2 ATS in their last 55 home games and they are on a 37-18 run OVER the total.



Patriots (12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS): The Pats blew four games they could have won, but still squeezed out a first round bye only because the Texans lost their final two. QB Tom Brady (34 TDs, 8 INTs) leads another powerhouse, no-huddle offense with young RB Stevan Ridley and targets WR Wes Welker, newcomer Brandon Lloyd and TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

Hernandez has been slowed by an ankle injury the last month and Gronkowski (broken bone in arm) just came back. They have much better balance on offense than last season, but the young defense is a concern, struggling (again) in the secondary, which was the main reason they traded for CB Aqib Talib in midseason.

Note: The New England defense gave up 503 yards (382 passing) to Baltimore, 438 to Buffalo and 41 points to run-oriented San Francisco. The OVER is 21-9 in the Patriots last 30 home games.



Falcons: (13-3 SU, 9-6-1 ATS): There are a lot of non-believers with this No. 1 seed. Atlanta has some weaknesses, ranked 29 in rushing the football with a defense in the bottom 12 in both defending the run and the pass. They've won four games by four points or less and lost to the Saints (31-27), Bucs (22-17) and Panthers (30-20) in the second half of the year.

Atlanta is more than lucky, with a pass-first attack behind first-year offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter and QB Matt Ryan (32 TDs, 14 INTs) and a pair of 1,000+ yard WRs in Julio Jones and Roddy White, plus veteran TE Tony Gonzalez not far behind. But can they win a big game in January?

Note: Last year the Falcons were one-and-done losing to the Giants (24-2) and two years ago as a No. 1 seed they lost at home to the Packers (48-21).



49ers (11-4-1 SU, 9-7 ATS): San Francisco surprised everyone last year under first-year Coach Jim Harbaugh. They surprised everyone again, not by reaching the playoffs but by making a QB change in midseason, benching Alex Smith (13 TDs, 5 INTS) for rookie Colin Kaepernick (10 TDs, 3 INTS).

It?s no secret how the 49ers got here: run the football on offense and play a rough, physical defense, ranked fourth against the pass and the run.

Note: The conservative offense has RB Frank Gore (1,214 yards), WR Mike Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis. They impressed with road wins at the Packers (30-22) and Patriots (41-34).

Let the games begin!
 

Senor Capper

is feeling it
Channel Member
Nov 14, 2000
24,639
104
63
Vegas
www.SenorCapper.com
Packers-Broncos LVH Super Bowl choice

Packers-Broncos LVH Super Bowl choice



LVH Super Book VP Jay Kornegay could have a say in who participates in this year?s Super Bowl, he?d vote Broncos-Packers all day long.

It?s not just because he hails from Denver and is a die-hard Broncos fan, it?s simply business. He?s looking for the best possible matchup in the biggest game of the year that will not only attract the most money through his bet windows, but also the most people from out of town where millions of dollars spill over into every other area of the casino.

?It?s definitely Broncos-Packers just based on what I?ve seen this season,? Kornegay said. ?From the weekly handle of games during the regular season and from what I see weekly at football central (LVH viewing parties) that have been filled with a majority of Broncos fans, they are an easy choice to be the most attractive team coming out of the AFC.?

The LVH currently has the Broncos as the 5-to-2 favorite to win the Super Bowl, followed by the Patriots at 11-4, the 49ers at 5-1 and the Packers at 6-1. Although the Patriots have plenty of supporters weekly at the bet windows, Kornegay says they?re not a team that has a huge following.

?The Patriots get tons of action every week from bettors who just respect their play and results ? they want to win their bet, but the difference between them and Denver is the fan base. Broncos fans are a little hungrier and crazier right now with their colors being much more visible than the Patriots.?

Along the same lines, Kornegay would choose the Packers as well with the 49ers being a close second.

?The Packers fans are just consistent. The 49ers are pretty excited too, having been away from the Super Bowl for such a long time. I think from a West Coast point of view, which is good for us, Broncos-49ers would be almost as attractive as Broncos-Packers.?

We?ve seen both those matchups in the Super Bowl before. One of the greatest Super Bowls ever was John Elway capturing his first Super Bowl win for Denver over the defending champion Packers. The other was a laugher with the 49ers winning 55-10 over the Broncos.

The Patriots were involved in two of the largest handled Super Bowls their last two appearances ? $93 million last year, $92 million in 2008. The driving force behind those two games was the New York Giants as the underdog that everyone seemed to root and bet for.

The top handled Super Bowl of all-time in Nevada didn?t involve the ideal matchup, suggesting that handle is more relative to current economic times. In 2006 the Seahawks and Steelers matchup generated $94.5 million in handle at a time just before the stuff hit the fan in America.

But things appear to be on the upswing now and if the Broncos are able to make the Super Bowl, the Nevada books could be looking at a possible all-time record.

The thing with the Broncos is that it?s not just Denver fans rooting for them, it?s all the fringe crowd that love a great underlying story. Peyton Manning?s meteoric rise to greatness again, after missing a season with a possible career ending neck-injury and being tossed to the side by his former team, instantly made him an inspiration to many.

Football fans wanted to see him do well, and he has with an MVP performance. Winning the Super Bowl would be icing on the cake and people want to see if he can get it done, no matter what team they root for.

The Broncos have home field throughout the playoffs and begin their quest Saturday against the Ravens as 9-point favorites.





Bettors win Wild Card Playoffs

You would think with all four favorites winning and covering that the sports books would have gotten buried over the weekend. They lost a little, but it wasn?t as bad as the projections would have been had you asked any book director in Las Vegas last Friday.

Despite paying out 11-to-1 on the popular four-team parlay over the weekend, the books were fortunate that all four games stayed UNDER the total.

The majority of bettors love to bet the favorites and parlays, but they also enjoy wagering games OVER the total. Over the course of the season favorites have hit only 48.6 percent of the time and game went OVER only 48.4. The majority never look at that kind of stuff and just shoot from the hip.

The average Joe betting wants to be thrilled. It?s like a price of admission for a day?s worth of excitement. The ultimate goal is to win, yes, but they seem to feel better about taking a team perceived to be better ? the favorite ? and they want to be wowed by points ? the OVER.

The books also took it on the chin with their ridiculous ?ties lose? parlay cards offered. The card generally holds up 60 percent of all handle compared to the regular season cards that at least give bettors a shot which holds only 28 percent.

These postseason parlay cards don?t have half-points either and offer spreads on games at 3, 4, 7, and 10 - the most hit upon margin of victories regardless of what the number on the board is. Over the weekend, the books got hammered on those cards because all four favorites won and didn?t land on the number, or tie.

There is at least some justice for the bettors who get suckered in to playing these type of cards. Now, with bettors showing a win on them, the books have proof that the cards can be beat, if there were to be any kind of inquisition.

If winning on one of these cards last week, consider yourself lucky, take the money, run, and play only off the board in the future. This has been a public service announcement.
 

Hashish

Smoked
Forum Member
Sep 5, 2006
8,085
107
0
Surf City
I'm with Vinnie. I always look forward to your plays, and they are always posted early. What give this week, sir?
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top