NFL Draft

[BASON]

Since there is only so much time you can spend capping soccer in Belarus and short period hockey in Russia, I have some time to spend on the draft. I will post bets in here as I make them. I put a couple in today.

AJ Epenesa Un 32.5 -220 - Yes, it is pricey, but I think he is definitely going in the first round, so I am happy to pay the juice on a bet I feel certain to cash.

Cornerbacks Ov 4.5 -150 - This is a gut call that the CBs will go in the latter part more than the WRs. This draft is loaded with WRs so I think teams will have a tough time passing on strong CBs. Could be 6 taken but I think we will see 5.

Clemson players Ov 1.5 -210 - Again, pricey, but Simmons is a lock and then you have Terrell and Higgins. And again, a CB vs WR decision. One will go in the first round, so I really like the over 1.5.


It can be risky making some bets this early as something could happen between now and then, and if this draft were live in Vegas I would probably wait, but if there is a year with limited risk to something happening to a player, this is the year. I expect a lot of movement in all these lines but I am comfortable where they are now especially the Epenesa line.

I will have more to come as I am spending way too much time on this right now.

Happy to discuss so fire away!

 

[Old School]

1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
Even if the Dolphins attempt to trade up to No. 1, the most likely scenario is that the Bengals will stay put and make Burrow the new face of their franchise. The 23-year-old Heisman-winning quarterback throws with pinpoint accuracy, maneuvers well within the pocket and uses his mobility to extend or make plays. Despite facing seven top-10 opponents en route to an unbeaten season, Burrow was remarkably consistent from start to finish yet he played his best during the biggest moments.

2. Washington: Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State
Like Burrow to Cincinnati, Young to Washington has been a constant in all iterations of this mock since the calendar turned to 2020. My top-ranked prospect in this year?s draft, Young matches elite physical traits with elite production. Closing out his true sophomore season with six sacks in the final four games, Young built upon his 2018 end-of-season momentum to set an Ohio State single-season record with an FBS-high 16.5 sacks in 2019.

3. Detroit Lions: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson
The Lions are in an ideal trade-back spot here as both the Dolphins and/or Chargers could seek to move up a couple of spots for a quarterback. Whether picking at No. 3, 5 or 6, the Lions will likely debate Simmons or Ohio State?s Jeffrey Okudah (if both are available) when they are on the clock. The depth of the cornerback class allows the Lions to take Clemson?s do-it-all hybrid defender here with a chance to nab a talented cornerback prospect at the top of Round 2 to pair with free-agent addition Desmond Trufant.

4. New York Giants: Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa
With Simmons off the board, the choice likely comes down to which ?hog molly? Dave Gettleman prefers. Last year?s starting right tackle Mike Remmers is now in Kansas City. While the Giants signed Cameron Fleming in free agency, his deal is for one year and he?d be better utilized as a swing tackle than as an every-week starter. Meanwhile, left tackle Nate Solder has not lived to the expectations of his massive contract. The first true freshman to start at tackle during the Kirk Ferentz era at Iowa, Wirfs has freakish athleticism for his size and he could play either tackle spot or kick inside, if necessary.

5. Miami Dolphins: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
Is growing buzz that Miami prefers Herbert over Tua Tagovailoa a smoke screen? Possibly. But owner Stephen Ross expressed concern earlier this year when he said ?I just worry about [Tua?s] health.? Even if Tua?s medical recheck by Titans team doctor and renowned hip specialist Thomas Byrd is viewed as being ?overwhelmingly positive,? the inability of Miami?s medical staff to evaluate Tua directly amplifies the uncertainty. While Herbert needs to improve his consistency, he has across-the-board plus traits?size, arm strength, mobility and intelligence. Meanwhile, the Senior Bowl?s Jim Nagy called concerns about Herbert?s quiet leadership style a ?false narrative? and said he has ?far more charisma than many NFL starters we?ve been around.?

6. Los Angeles Chargers: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
As the Chargers move into the post-Philip Rivers era, Tyrod Taylor and Easton Stick are the only quarterbacks currently under contract for 2020. Coach Anthony Lynn recently said that Taylor is ?in the driver?s seat? to start as the team is more likely to add to the quarterback room through the draft than free agency. As well as his rehab has reportedly gone, Tagovailoa can take over in 2021 with Taylor as the bridge quarterback in 2020. When healthy, Tua throws with a quick release, elite accuracy and anticipation, and has the intangibles and leadership to develop into a franchise quarterback.

 

[Old School]

7. Carolina Panthers: Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio State
Three quarterbacks off the board in the first six picks guaranteed that (at least) one of Chase Young, Isaiah Simmons, Derrick Brown or Okudah falls to Carolina here. In this case, it?s two of them?Okudah and Brown. Fortunately for the Panthers, there should be good options available in Round 2 at both positions. Okudah checks all the boxes teams covet in a lockdown corner and he immediately fills the void following James Bradbury?s free-agent departure.

8. Arizona Cardinals: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
With the Cardinals trading for (read: stealing) DeAndre Hopkins (from Houston), I have leaned offensive tackle for Arizona in previous iterations of this mock, and Jedrick Wills (or another offensive tackle) still makes sense here. That said, the Cardinals ranked last in the NFL in total defense in 2019 and Brown is the top-ranked player left on my board. Due to his size, strength and consistent motor, Brown is a dominant run-stuffer with the versatility to play multiple spots along the line.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
Second-year receiver D.J. Chark Jr. had a breakout 2019 campaign (75/1,008/8), but the team needs more weapons for Gardner Minshew. Highly advanced as a route-runner, Jeudy has quick feet and is elusive after the catch. The former Biletnikoff Award recipient should develop into a high-volume and true No. 1 receiver for the Jags early in his career.

10. Cleveland Browns: Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville
The Browns signed right tackle Jack Conklin to a three-year deal in free agency, but there is still a huge need at left tackle. A mountain of a man at 6' 7" and 364 pounds with vines for arms (35 5/8"), the 20-year-old Becton has work to do on technique, but he has unique movement skills for a man his size.

11. New York Jets: Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama
The Jets ranked near the bottom of Football Outsiders offensive line rankings in both run blocking (31st) and pass blocking (30th) in 2019. While the Jets have made several additions to the offensive line via free agency, I don?t think Joe Douglas is done yet. A two-year starter at right tackle for the Tide, Wills is dominant as a run blocker with outstanding movement skills that should allow him to play either tackle spot.

12. Las Vegas Raiders: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
While tight end Darren Waller broke out (90/1,145/3) in 2019, the trade for Antonio Brown turned out to be a failed experiment. Experienced lining up both inside and outside, Lamb has exceptional ball skills with a special ability to contort his body and adjust to the ball in the air. The Oklahoma junior is dangerous after the catch with his vision in the open field and ability to make would-be tacklers miss.

13. San Francisco 49ers (via IND): C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida
Richard Sherman turned 32 last month and three of the team?s top four cornerbacks (including Sherman) are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents next offseason. Given his blend of size, length, speed and agility, Henderson has elite coverage skills. While the ball production wasn't there in 2019, Henderson had six combined interceptions in his first two seasons at Florida.

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
Even if he turns out to be the fourth tackle off the board, you could argue that Thomas is the most pro-ready of the top-four. With starting experience at both left and right tackle at Georgia, Thomas provides the Bucs with an immediate upgrade at right tackle and the long-term upside to slide over to the left side, if needed.

 

[Old School]

15. Denver Broncos: Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama
Drew Lock and Noah Fant both showed promise in their rookie seasons and Courtland Sutton had a breakout sophomore campaign (1,112 yards). The Broncos could use an upgrade opposite Sutton, however, as no other returning wide receiver reached the 300-yard mark in 2019. Posting a combine-fastest 40-yard dash (4.27), Ruggs has the ability to stress any defense and is a threat to take any slant to the house.

16. Atlanta Falcons: K?Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU
Even though the Falcons have signed Dante Fowler, the team finished with the second fewest sacks (28) in 2019 and last year?s team leader (Vic Beasley, eight) is now in Tennessee. While Chaisson missed nearly all of 2018 with a torn ACL, the 20-year-old has elite burst off the edge and came on late?4.5 sacks in final four games?to lead LSU in sacks, tackles for loss and QB hurries in 2019.

17. Dallas Cowboys: Javon Kinlaw, IDL, South Carolina
In the majority of my mocks this draft season, Kinlaw was off the board by this point. When he wasn?t, the Cowboys ended his slide and that happens again here as they nab my 11th-ranked prospect. Dallas bolstered its interior defensive line with the free-agent additions of Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe, but Maliek Collins departed in free agency and second-rounder Trysten Hill had a disappointing rookie campaign. Given his blend of size, length, strength and quickness, Kinlaw has as much upside as any interior defender in this class.

18. Miami Dolphins (via PIT): Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama
The Dolphins have signed several new starters?Kyle Van Noy, Shaq Lawson and Byron Jones?on the defensive side of the ball via free agency. They add another projected starter here with McKinney, a versatile defender with experience at both safety spots. The junior tied for the team lead in interceptions (three) last season at Alabama.

19. Las Vegas Raiders (via CHI): Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama
While the prospects are different than in my previous mock, the Raiders once again address their two biggest post-free agency needs (wide receiver and cornerback) with their first two-round picks. The younger brother of Bills receiver Stefon Diggs, (Trevon) Diggs has an elite combination of size and length, and the former receiver has outstanding ball skills.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR): Jordan Love, QB, Utah State
In this mock, the Jags gave Minshew a weapon with their first pick. They give him competition with their second pick. Described by one NFL head coach as a ?poor man's (Patrick) Mahomes,? Love has a live arm, plus mobility and improvisational skills.

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
Philadelphia?s top three receivers (entering 2019)?Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson and Nelson Agholor?missed 24 games combined games last year. Agholor is now a Raider, Jeffery?s future in Philly is uncertain and second-rounder J.J. Arcega-Whiteside underwhelmed as a rookie. Jefferson has outstanding ball skills, ran a faster-than-expected 40-yard dash (4.43) and is coming off a prolific season (111/1,540/18) for the national champions.

22. Minnesota Vikings (via BUF): Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor
The Vikings have a need for an upgrade at WR2 to pair with Adam Thielen following the trade of Stefon Diggs, which has returned this pick to Minnesota. After an outstanding week at the Senior Bowl, Mims ran a sub-4.4 in the 40 with a position-best 6.66 in the three-cone drill at the combine. Per PFF stats, the 207-pound wideout led the nation with 20 contested catches.

23. New England Patriots:A.J. Epenesa, EDGE, Iowa
While not a speed rusher, Epenesa could remind Bill Belichick of one of his former players (Trey Flowers). The former Hawkeye wins with a blend of power, length, technique and heavy hands, and has the versatility to rush from the inside as well. While he started 2019 slowly, Epenesa closed the season strong with eight sacks and four forced fumbles over his final five games.

 

[Old School]

24. New Orleans Saints: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU
Four of the team?s top linebackers?Demario Davis, Kiko Alonso, Alex Anzalone and Craig Robertson?are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents next offseason. One of the youngest prospects in the draft (he turns 21 in August), Queen played his best football down the stretch of LSU?s title run. While he?s a bit undersized, Queen is a three-down linebacker with outstanding speed that excels in coverage.

25. Minnesota Vikings: Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
Of the four cornerbacks to play 500-plus snaps for the Vikings last season, three of them?Trae Waynes, Mackensie Alexander and Xavier Rhodes?are no longer on the roster. Fulton is a patient and physical corner with decent size. While he may not have elite long speed, he checked the box with a 4.46 in the 40 at the combine and he's quick, fluid and sticky in coverage.

26. Miami Dolphins (via HOU): Josh Jones, OT, Houston
Most of Miami?s free-agent spending was focused on the defensive side of the ball. While Chris Grier has added Ereck Flowers and Ted Karras on the interior, the team still has one of the worst offensive lines in football and could still use upgrades at both tackle spots. A four-year starter at Houston, Jones has the length, quick feet and movement skills coveted in a left tackle.

27. Seattle Seahawks: Yetur Gross-Matos, EDGE, Penn State
Jadeveon Clowney remains a free agent and while he has recently lowered his price tag, at least one NFL insider says the chances of Clowney returning to Seattle is ?slim to none.? While the team has agreed to a contract with Bruce Irvin, who spent 2012-15 in Seattle, he?ll be 33 in November. Gross-Matos has ideal length, a non-stop motor and quick first step, and has recorded 34.5 tackles for loss and 17 sacks over the past two seasons combined.

28. Baltimore Ravens: Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma
After losing C.J. Mosley in free agency last offseason, both Josh Bynes and Patrick Onwuasor are free agents in 2020. A tackling machine for the Sooners, Murray has the non-stop motor and sideline-to-sideline range to become an impact defender in the middle of the Ravens defense.

29. Tennessee Titans: Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU
Gladney lacks ideal size and length, but he plays with a more physical presence than his size would suggest. Blending foot quickness, short-area agility and a feisty competitive toughness, Gladney has a nose for the ball that's led to 26 passes defended since 2018 and five interceptions over his three seasons as a starter.

30. Green Bay Packers: Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson
The Packers signed Devin Funchess to a one-year deal this offseason, but Green Bay has struggled to find consistent production from its wide receiver corps outside of Davante Adams. Tying DeAndre Hopkins and Sammy Watkins for the Clemson record for receiving touchdowns (27), Higgins has strong hands, a large catch radius and wins as a vertical receiver.

31. San Francisco 49ers: Austin Jackson, OT, USC
With no picks again until Round 5, the 49ers will look to trade back and acquire more picks. If they don?t trade back, adding a long-term replacement at left tackle for 35-year-old Joe Staley would make sense. Even though Staley is signed through 2021, there is no guarantee he returns as beat reporter Matt Maiocco puts the odds at ?50/50? that he plays this season.

32. Kansas City Chiefs: A.J. Terrell, CB, Clemson
While UDFA Charvarius Ward is coming off a strong second season, the team?s cornerback room is extremely thin after free agency. While he didn?t have a stellar performance against Ja?Marr Chase and LSU in the national championship game, Terrell is a long and athletic corner that would help address one of the team?s bigger needs.


<figure class="m-embed m-embed--iframe l-inline" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px auto 30px; max-width: 700px; position: relative; clear: both; float: none; width: 700px;">https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/04/09/nfl-mock-draft-14-five-rounds-no-trades</figure>

 

[BASON]

Hope that is right Old School, then the first three are winners!!

I put a little more on the Epenesa bet today.

Next on the list is Xavier McKinney. Need to do a little more research, but he is moving up and is sitting at Un 25.5 -150. He is the best safety in the draft, but trades could impact where he goes as this is more of a need pick so the right team needs to be there. Miami is a good bet at 18, but will they still be there is the question.

 

[Box and one]

Hard to believe but I'm making a bet on the draft looked at all the bets up on the board and see one that sticks out

Simmons under 6.5 in 1st round .... its -150 but no way he is still on the board at 6...

some pretty enticing bets though

Oklahoma players in 1st rd over 2 -200 under 140 +

alabama-clemson who has more 1sr rd player picked
1st round alabama -225 LSU +165

any thought ?

 

[Old School]

6-Alabama
3- Clemson

SI projection

 

[Old School]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...t-tua-tagovailoa-tumbles-out-of-top-10#slide0

5-Alabama
1- Clemson


BR projection

 

[Old School]

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft...ed-firepower-and-vikings-raise-some-eyebrows/

5-Alabama
1- Clemson




CBS Sports projection

 

[Old School]

https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2020...ted-joe-burrow-tua-tagovailoa-justin-herbert/

6-Alabama
1- Clemson

Draft Wire projection

 

[BASON]

Hard to believe but I'm making a bet on the draft looked at all the bets up on the board and see one that sticks out

Simmons under 6.5 in 1st round .... its -150 but no way he is still on the board at 6...

some pretty enticing bets though

Oklahoma players in 1st rd over 2 -200 under 140 +

alabama-clemson who has more 1sr rd player picked
1st round alabama -225 LSU +165

any thought ?

I was looking at the Simmons bet, but the problem is trades. If the QB trade market gets a little nuts he could drop to 7 or 8 because you could then have 3QBs, Young, Okudah and 2 OTs in the mix. I think that is the only way he drops but it is a real risk, and for now, I am not willing to risk the juice.

I did not see an Oklahoma players bet and all mine are at halves, but if it is at 2, then it is basically a bet that someone trades up late to take Jalen Hurts. Lamb is a lock first rounder and Murray is almost a certainty, but not a lot of value in the line since the likelihood is a push and I would not lay 2 to 1 that Hurts goes in the first round.

The Bama vs LSU bet is intriguing. A push is a real possibility but LSU has a max of 5, while Bama has a possibility of 6. Will come down to Diggs and/or McKinney for Bama. LSU could easily be 4 as Jefferson and Fulton are projected all over the place. Again, the WR/CB positions are key to the end of the first round. Given the depth of the WR position, I expect to see some trades in the later part of the first rounds to grab some key position players other than WR which will affect a lot of these types of bets. This would be Alabama or nothing for me.

Old School - the Clemson bet is projected all over the place and once again it comes down to a corner and WR. Given Terrell's 40 time I think he has a strong chance to go before some of the other CBs but many of these bets will come down to how teams have the CBs and WRs ranked. For me, I would always take a highly rated CB over a WR as WR has to be one of the biggest first round bust positions (will have more on this later). Given the way the game is played, teams really need 5 quality corners to have a strong passing defense. My draft would always be focused on defensive backs and offensive lineman as they are two positions you have to have to be successful, where you need quality depth and where it is tough to get quality in free agencies without overpaying.

 

[BASON]

The site I bet the Epenesa prop just went to Un32.5 -355!!

I thought they would just move the position, but I am glad I got that one in early.

 

[Old School]

6-Alabama
3- Clemson

YardBarker

https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/arti..._how_many_qbs_will_go_in_round_1/s1__31763138

 

[Old School]

Microsoft Sports: Mock Draft 1.0

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/microsoft-sports-mock-draft-10/ar-BB12zrtM

5-Alabama
1- Clemson

 

[Old School]

Hard to believe but I'm making a bet on the draft looked at all the bets up on the board and see one that sticks out

Simmons under 6.5 in 1st round .... its -150 but no way he is still on the board at 6...

some pretty enticing bets though

Oklahoma players in 1st rd over 2 -200 under 140 +

alabama-clemson who has more 1sr rd player picked
1st round alabama -225 LSU +165

any thought ?

who still has the wager

alabama-clemson who has more 1sr rd player picked 1st round alabama -225 LSU +165

 

[BASON]

I think it is Alabama vs LSU and I have not seen it.

Mel Kiper special:

Justin Jefferson Un 21.5 -130

Mel is a Baltimore boy and I met him before anyone knew who he was as he was always trying to hang around football coaches and my father was one. He was a total football nerd and it was kind of crazy how he got to where he is now. Love him or hate him he was the original draft guru. His latest mock says Jefferson is moving up Boards fast so I will make a Kiper bet.

 

[Box and one]

can't find the alabama-clemson bet anymore ??
I''m going to play the Simmons -150 under 6.5 rounds big I know Bason those qb trades could screw this up The Giants have been going back and forth for an OL one or Simmons on defense ..listening and reading all the NY press ..think they Jints will take some OL in the 2nd or 3rd rd also talk about Giants trading the 4th pick ...

what about Swift going in the 1st round -140 he has to be the 1st running back taken and think someone will grab him ....

Hard to believe I'm making these prop bets but at least I'm not betting on Russian table tennis ...

 

[BASON]

Can not argue with the Simmons pick as he could go as high as 3.

I have a bias against taking RBs in the first round. Given the offenses today, I just do not think they are worth a first round pick. A top RB is nice to have, but if you have the right scheme there are plenty of backs that can do well. Denver proved this for years and any decent runner would have done well in Baltimore last year. Sure there are a couple of exceptions, but I do not think Swift is one of them. Having said that, there is a chance he goes at the end of the first round but I would not lay -140 on it because the team that is most likely to pick him is KC who picks last in the first round (Miami is another possibility). They definitely could take him but I could also see them trading out if someone wants to come in and take Hurts or Eason in order to get the extra year on the contract like Baltimore did with Lamar Jackson. I guess that is a little far fetched, but still do not want to make the bet that he goes with the last pick.

 

[BASON]

Man, some of these lines are not moving like crazy. Clemson bet is now at -455 as AJ Terrell is climbing. Jefferson bet move to -235. The Epenesa bet went all the up to -360 and now came all the way back to -180. He is moving all over the place on draft boards. I still like it but it is starting to look like more of a gamble. I bet Tua Ov 3.5 the other day, which I think now is a lock, but forgot to post, so I will leave it off as I do not think you can get it most places right now.

These are this mornings final additions to the bets already made above:

Patrick Queen Un 25.5 -140 - I would love it if he drops to the Ravens but I do not see it happening. Word is he is now considered by most to be the best inside LB in the draft so I expect him to go by pick 20.

Zack Baun Un 32.5 -115 - Smaller bet, but he is an intriguing player. I actually think the Ravens may take him if Murray and Queen are off the board. He is a player someone could trade up for late in the draft.


Big gambles, very small long shot plays:

QB's Ov 4.5 +490 - Now this is simply a bet that someone may trade up to get Eason or Hurts in the final couple picks. Unlikely, but I will take a shot with 5-1 money given teams desperation for QBs.

First RB JK Dobbs +800 - Probably even more unlikely, but there really is no consensus #1 back and none may be taken in the first round. I think Dobbs is very intriguing for KC with the last pick as I think he would fit best in their offense. Again, highly doubtful, but worth a couple bucks to me at 8-1.

Been going back and forth with Wirfs as the first OT takes at -115, but Willis is now the favorite. Plus, I am betting that the Giants take him and the Giants have proven to be seriously unpredictable, so this is one I think I am going to lay off.

By far the most I have ever bet on the draft and maybe I get killed, but at least I get some action that I can watch unfold. I think it is going to be a very interesting draft and I expect a lot of trades that could reek havoc with a lot of these bets.