Is it me or does it seem like a lot of favorites and public teams have been covering up until this point in the season? It seems like the public is doing alright halfway throught the season. People that I work with who usually just bet public teams like kc,minn,tenn,mia,and indy they don't really know much about betting on games and they seem to be winning. Does anyone think the second half of the season will be different should we fade the public teams? Public teams in my mind are KC MIN TEN INDY MIA STL TB which are a combined 38-12 ats. I think those seven teams are the frontrunners for the Super Bowl.
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- Thread starter Ndfan
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same thing I posted last night ND....
same thing I posted last night ND....
I have gotten so fed up with college and pro foots lately...seems all we have now are public plays and favorites covering......the last 3 monday night favorites (public plays for sure) and the the sunday night game (KC public) play all covered easily....this isn't good for a dog player like myself.....I don't remember it happening like this before. I was thinking the same thing about this thing turning around....but the way it is going, I don't know if that is going to happen? :shrug:
same thing I posted last night ND....
I have gotten so fed up with college and pro foots lately...seems all we have now are public plays and favorites covering......the last 3 monday night favorites (public plays for sure) and the the sunday night game (KC public) play all covered easily....this isn't good for a dog player like myself.....I don't remember it happening like this before. I was thinking the same thing about this thing turning around....but the way it is going, I don't know if that is going to happen? :shrug:
Well, if it's not going to turn around yet, then the plays should be T.B, Philly., and Minn :shrug:
Most of my plays are dogs and anti public plays. I think the second half of the season will turn around with the odds makers catching up to these teams.
I am a dogg player too.(especially in football) I agree with you 100% I think the doggs will start winning a lot more games in the second half. keep playing 'em
If I'm wrong then maybe K.C. goes 16-0 and minny 15-1:shrug:
I've been waiting for the dogs to start barking. Being a Dog player and anti-consenus player, I'm getting killed! Hope this thing turns around soon......
NDFAN This season is certainly one that favors the "squares". With that said lets go with the flow until things change. I never bet against a streak until it kicks me in the balls. I still keep looking at the dogs but I force myself to go to the teams that are covering. I know your too good a capper to have a losing year so do as you have done in the past and it will all come together. GLTU
I totally agree with the favs covering but off the top of my head changing these lines wont make much of a difference. When the public fav has won its been a blow out.
Mush
Mush
I am a dog play usually and I have been getting killed. I think though the old anit-consensus is starting to come around in college football. I did have a good week Saturday, and hopefully the NFL it starts to pick up also.
NDNFAN's thought-provoking post gave me the idea to data mine all the material from recent years to see if there are correlations between first half of the season SU and ATS success/failure rate and second hanf of the season SU and ATS success failure rate.
So far, I have found very little that can be used to suggest that things will reurn to "normal." I did find some minor correlations, whihc I'll post next week in the daily report. I had hoped to finish the project this week, but since it is tough to find relevant material that we can use, I want some extra time to see if we can "mine a diamond." So far, all I'm coming up with is coal.
-- Nolan Dalla
So far, I have found very little that can be used to suggest that things will reurn to "normal." I did find some minor correlations, whihc I'll post next week in the daily report. I had hoped to finish the project this week, but since it is tough to find relevant material that we can use, I want some extra time to see if we can "mine a diamond." So far, all I'm coming up with is coal.
-- Nolan Dalla
I couldnt agree more, frankly, Im going to scale back my amount of football wagers pro and college, and my size of them, and basically focus on basketball baseball and coattailing hockey, it simply is very difficult to win a ton in football, most people are either contrarians or those who usually bet the obvious ones, and theres usually a healthy mixture but this yr obvious ones are winning especially in nfl, tenn giving jax 3.5 last week only at jax??? line shoulda been damn 6 not 3.5, yet 99.9% had tenn and it won easy, its sickening to watch
Mike
Mike
I have to say, I'm getting tired of all the griping going on...
Fact of the matter is, we still have to line the teams up and cap the games. To bet on a game simply because Joe Public is laying heavily on them is ridiculous. In order to win, you have to find value in the line.
Some players think there is more value in the dogs - especially home dogs. And that's fine, this year home dogs aren't covering as well... but...
The dogs record this season, by the numbers I have, is 36-34 in the last 70 games (weeks 4-8) and I'm pretty sure those numbers aren't too far off...
Seems to me like there are a lot of match-ups this year that are just flat-out lopsided. Ten @ Jac +3.5 is a perfect example. Nobody in their right mind would put money on Jac. If you did simply because Joe Public - all the millions of them - did, then you deserve to lose your money. And why is Joe Public taking money from their bookies making people sick?? More power to 'em - to each his own and whatever they can come away with the better. Damn the books.
Think about all the lopsided match-ups. With the exception of a few games where freakish things happen (ie. TB - but the dog won in that game) , there aren't many dogs that should have won that didn't - that's why they're the dogs. Jac, with their poor pass D, surely shouldn't have been played on by any capper getting only 3.5 from the team with the hottest QB in the league. And there have been countless games like that.
The bottom line is we have to take each game and look at all the factors that play into that game on that day. Whether there's trends for the game, the dog or fav, history, whatever - when it comes down to it, you have to line up the teams and see who you think comes out on top against the lines that are posted today - not yesterday, not last week, not ten years ago - the way the lines are coming out today is what matters. This just goes to show you that trends don't last forever. You have to actually do some work to win - there are no easy W's.
Good, now I feel better - needed to get that off my chest. Good luck to you all this week, hopefully we can start hitting the books a little harder over the course of the next couple months.
Fact of the matter is, we still have to line the teams up and cap the games. To bet on a game simply because Joe Public is laying heavily on them is ridiculous. In order to win, you have to find value in the line.
Some players think there is more value in the dogs - especially home dogs. And that's fine, this year home dogs aren't covering as well... but...
The dogs record this season, by the numbers I have, is 36-34 in the last 70 games (weeks 4-8) and I'm pretty sure those numbers aren't too far off...
Seems to me like there are a lot of match-ups this year that are just flat-out lopsided. Ten @ Jac +3.5 is a perfect example. Nobody in their right mind would put money on Jac. If you did simply because Joe Public - all the millions of them - did, then you deserve to lose your money. And why is Joe Public taking money from their bookies making people sick?? More power to 'em - to each his own and whatever they can come away with the better. Damn the books.
Think about all the lopsided match-ups. With the exception of a few games where freakish things happen (ie. TB - but the dog won in that game) , there aren't many dogs that should have won that didn't - that's why they're the dogs. Jac, with their poor pass D, surely shouldn't have been played on by any capper getting only 3.5 from the team with the hottest QB in the league. And there have been countless games like that.
The bottom line is we have to take each game and look at all the factors that play into that game on that day. Whether there's trends for the game, the dog or fav, history, whatever - when it comes down to it, you have to line up the teams and see who you think comes out on top against the lines that are posted today - not yesterday, not last week, not ten years ago - the way the lines are coming out today is what matters. This just goes to show you that trends don't last forever. You have to actually do some work to win - there are no easy W's.
Good, now I feel better - needed to get that off my chest. Good luck to you all this week, hopefully we can start hitting the books a little harder over the course of the next couple months.
You guys should stop pissing and moaning and just cap the games! It doesn't matter who are the public/concensus teams. It doesn't matter who is a dog and who is the favorite.
Cap the games as you always do, compare your numbers to the spread and play the ones that look strong.
We can't help it if Tennessee was such an obvious play at -3.5 last week. It is the odds we all must play.
You can't just sit and wait to be a contrairian or "think you know more than Joe Public" . The bottom line is there is no"trickery" to line-setting. There is only honest capping and going with good situations and strong plays!
Good luck to all
I'm only editing to notice I agree with the post above:thumb:
Cap the games as you always do, compare your numbers to the spread and play the ones that look strong.
We can't help it if Tennessee was such an obvious play at -3.5 last week. It is the odds we all must play.
You can't just sit and wait to be a contrairian or "think you know more than Joe Public" . The bottom line is there is no"trickery" to line-setting. There is only honest capping and going with good situations and strong plays!
Good luck to all
I'm only editing to notice I agree with the post above:thumb:
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I agree to some extent, but I still believe there is some trickery, is it a coincidence about a zillion people called auburn and purdue locks saturday but both got smashed? Maybe Im a conspiracy theorist, and I have to admit its dumb to just go anti-public, better off capping the games, I just always feel more comofrtable on the minority side, but it hasn't resulted well for me this year necessarily, maybe it's time to adjust and change a little, but Ill say this, vegas was NOT built because of games like tenn @jax last week, if every game went like that and was that easy with 99% on the winning side theyd be broke, plenty of those go the other way, its just a constant battle and very tough to come out ahead in the long run for the vast majority
Mike
Mike
