Is it too early to talk football?
The NFL is going to 8 four-team divisions starting next season (2002). That means the odds of ANY team winning its division is greater this year than in years past. Keep in mind that all divisions had FIVE teams, and one division (AFC Central) had SIX teams, last season.
From the early odds posted at Olympic, I see value in certain teams. I will make three bets on projected division winners -- and one bet on the projected conference winner. I will also make several wagers on regular season win totals -- once the opening numbers are released. As football season draws closer (we're two months away from training camp), here's a few futures recommendations you may want to ponder:
NFC WEST -- San Francisco, St. Louis, Seattle, Arizona
This is the most radically different division in football. All four teams have the potential to be .500 or better, and make the playoffs, but the Rams and 49ers are clearly the class of the division. Rams are listed at the absurd price of 1-5 to win the NFC West, which is a tremendous insult to the multi-talented and well-coached 49ers. After seeing the horrendous job head coach Martz did with the Rams in the last Super Bowl game (his play calling was insane -- the man does not belong in the NFL head coaching ranks after what I witnessed), I'm convinced the 49ers are much better coached overall and probably have at least as good an offense. QB Jeff Garcia is arguably the best in the league coming into the 2002 season and if the 49ers get any defensive improvement at all (especially in the defensive secondary -- where they are most vulnerable), this is going to be THE TEAM to watch in the NFC. They go off at a bargain price at 5-2 to win the division (which I think is worth a bet -- I'd make them slight dogs to the Rams -- with the other two teams coming in the rear). I also like San Francisco to win the NFC Conference at the value price of 11-2. Betting on San Francisco here in two places.
NFC SOUTH -- Tampa Bay, Atlanta, New Orleans, Carolina
This appears to be a no-brainer. Hard to see any of the other three donkeys in this weak division chasing the tough Bucs and making the playoffs. Tampa goes off at 1-2 odds, a pretty fair price if you can deal with the chalk. New coach in Tampa should also stir things up and given six division games against this bunch, ten wins should be automatic for the very solid Bucs. Saints crumbled and fell apart last season and now come in with no running game and a team in complete turmoil (player holdouts, etc.). Atlanta will be lucky to have a winning season with its multitude of problems, and even with Vick at QB will have a hard time scoring points. Odds seems against him finishing the season healthy, which leaves the Falcons with more quarterback problems. Time has passed Dan Reeves by. Carolina is still Carolina -- a dreadful team that's been completely renovated. Grunden's Bucs are the obvious play here, even laying the price of 1-2.
NFC NORTH -- Green Bay, Chicago, Minnesota, Detroit
This appears to be too close to call with Bears and Packers each worthy of consideration. Chicago is listed at 8-5 but has several offensive questions coming into the new season. Main concern is -- was 2001 a fluke? I think so. This is quite possibly the New Orleans of 2002 -- a team that will fall back to mediocrity with a tougher schedule and with the surprise element gone. Packers are aging and have vulnerabilities, but are still listed as the favorites to win the division at 2-3. Minnesota no longer merits consideration (although I look for QB Culpepper to have an MVP year), and Detroit is still at least one year away from serious playoff contention. No play in this division that could be wide open.
NFC EAST -- New York, Washington, Dallas, Philadelphia
Eagles are a tempting play at 4-7 odds, but Washington and New York have just enough talent to make this race interesting. Redskins are 2-1, but I don't have faith in teams that change coaching staffs from year to year, as the Redskins have done. Washington also has serious quarterback issues to deal with. Giants are a darkhorse here and are probably the best bet at 7-2 to win this division, but I can't pull the trigger and see them upsetting the multi-talented Eagles. Dallas will not win the NFC East again until Jerry Jones gets out of football operations. Any imbecile that thinks Quincy Carter is the quarterback of the future deserves to be in last place. No play.
AFC WEST -- Denver, Oakland, Kansas City, San Diego
Another division where two, and perhaps three teams can win. Denver and Oakland are clearly the favorites and Chiefs are a legitimate threat if they can get the defense together. Chargers also could sneak in as a wild card as QB Brees is going to be interesting to watch and the foundation is there for a powerhouse. Edge goes to Oakland based on talent, but nothing will surprise me in this division. Certainly, it's too close to call to make any predictions or recommend a wager. No play.
AFC SOUTH -- Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston
Jags and Texas have virtually no chance in this division, which pretty much leaves us with the Titans and Colts. Trouble is -- predicting what Indianapolis and Tennessee are going to do next week, let alone next season, is impossible. Colts defense is one of the worst I've ever seen (which is sure to improve with new coach) while Titans are now aging and riddled with players coming off injuries. It's quite possible the winner of this division will be 9-7 or 8-8 and will get bounced out of the playoffs like a slam dunk. Which team that ends up being is anyone's guess. No play.
AFC NORTH -- Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Baltimore
Steelers should win this division by default, although Cleveland is a solid darkhorse choice at 8-1. Pittsburgh is listed at 1-2 (same as Tampa in a similar situation -- very weak division). It's hard to imagine a scenario where Steelers do not win the "AFC North," unless you believe the theory that Steelers overachieved last season (certainly possible). The team to watch here is the feisty Browns, who now have a defense, will get back healthy starters on offense, and now have a head coach that has proven he can win in the NFL. Browns are still probably a year away, but could sneak in as a wild card. Then again, if Steelers get hit with injuries, Cleveland becomes the odds on favorite in this division. Forget the Ravens -- which are now a sad shell of the former team that won the Super Bowl just two years ago. Now, Modell wants the starters to take pay cuts to free up salary cap money. No quarterback. Baltimore is now a .500 team, at best and has a team that won't be producing many points. Bengals could be an interesting long shot at 17-1. But the trouble is they simply have shown no ability to string together a series of wins at any time in the last decade. The offense is abysmal. Again -- major quarterback issues. The NFL has produced a number of surprises in recent years, and the Browns appear to be the team in this division ready to take that next step. Jaguars won their division in their fourth year, and Browns could do the same with some breaks. Playing Cleveland at 8-1.
AFC EAST -- New York, Buffalo, Miami, New England
Patriots are 1-1 (even money) to repeat as champions, but I'm not convinced they are worth that price as the favorite. I'd put them closer to 8-5. Jets are a legitimate threat and go off at the value price of 16-5 in Edwards' second year as head coach. That's a very attractive number, which I would take were it not for Jets' quarterback concerns. Miami is also worth a look at 3-2, but playing in a division where three teams can possibly win it. Buffalo still appears to be a year away in a rebuilding phase. However, they will be much healthier this season and could make a solid bet to go OVER the season win total (I project it at 6 wins -- in which case I think they'll win 7). Too close to call between the Patriots, Dolphins, and the potentially strong well-coached Jets.
The NFL is going to 8 four-team divisions starting next season (2002). That means the odds of ANY team winning its division is greater this year than in years past. Keep in mind that all divisions had FIVE teams, and one division (AFC Central) had SIX teams, last season.
From the early odds posted at Olympic, I see value in certain teams. I will make three bets on projected division winners -- and one bet on the projected conference winner. I will also make several wagers on regular season win totals -- once the opening numbers are released. As football season draws closer (we're two months away from training camp), here's a few futures recommendations you may want to ponder:
NFC WEST -- San Francisco, St. Louis, Seattle, Arizona
This is the most radically different division in football. All four teams have the potential to be .500 or better, and make the playoffs, but the Rams and 49ers are clearly the class of the division. Rams are listed at the absurd price of 1-5 to win the NFC West, which is a tremendous insult to the multi-talented and well-coached 49ers. After seeing the horrendous job head coach Martz did with the Rams in the last Super Bowl game (his play calling was insane -- the man does not belong in the NFL head coaching ranks after what I witnessed), I'm convinced the 49ers are much better coached overall and probably have at least as good an offense. QB Jeff Garcia is arguably the best in the league coming into the 2002 season and if the 49ers get any defensive improvement at all (especially in the defensive secondary -- where they are most vulnerable), this is going to be THE TEAM to watch in the NFC. They go off at a bargain price at 5-2 to win the division (which I think is worth a bet -- I'd make them slight dogs to the Rams -- with the other two teams coming in the rear). I also like San Francisco to win the NFC Conference at the value price of 11-2. Betting on San Francisco here in two places.
NFC SOUTH -- Tampa Bay, Atlanta, New Orleans, Carolina
This appears to be a no-brainer. Hard to see any of the other three donkeys in this weak division chasing the tough Bucs and making the playoffs. Tampa goes off at 1-2 odds, a pretty fair price if you can deal with the chalk. New coach in Tampa should also stir things up and given six division games against this bunch, ten wins should be automatic for the very solid Bucs. Saints crumbled and fell apart last season and now come in with no running game and a team in complete turmoil (player holdouts, etc.). Atlanta will be lucky to have a winning season with its multitude of problems, and even with Vick at QB will have a hard time scoring points. Odds seems against him finishing the season healthy, which leaves the Falcons with more quarterback problems. Time has passed Dan Reeves by. Carolina is still Carolina -- a dreadful team that's been completely renovated. Grunden's Bucs are the obvious play here, even laying the price of 1-2.
NFC NORTH -- Green Bay, Chicago, Minnesota, Detroit
This appears to be too close to call with Bears and Packers each worthy of consideration. Chicago is listed at 8-5 but has several offensive questions coming into the new season. Main concern is -- was 2001 a fluke? I think so. This is quite possibly the New Orleans of 2002 -- a team that will fall back to mediocrity with a tougher schedule and with the surprise element gone. Packers are aging and have vulnerabilities, but are still listed as the favorites to win the division at 2-3. Minnesota no longer merits consideration (although I look for QB Culpepper to have an MVP year), and Detroit is still at least one year away from serious playoff contention. No play in this division that could be wide open.
NFC EAST -- New York, Washington, Dallas, Philadelphia
Eagles are a tempting play at 4-7 odds, but Washington and New York have just enough talent to make this race interesting. Redskins are 2-1, but I don't have faith in teams that change coaching staffs from year to year, as the Redskins have done. Washington also has serious quarterback issues to deal with. Giants are a darkhorse here and are probably the best bet at 7-2 to win this division, but I can't pull the trigger and see them upsetting the multi-talented Eagles. Dallas will not win the NFC East again until Jerry Jones gets out of football operations. Any imbecile that thinks Quincy Carter is the quarterback of the future deserves to be in last place. No play.
AFC WEST -- Denver, Oakland, Kansas City, San Diego
Another division where two, and perhaps three teams can win. Denver and Oakland are clearly the favorites and Chiefs are a legitimate threat if they can get the defense together. Chargers also could sneak in as a wild card as QB Brees is going to be interesting to watch and the foundation is there for a powerhouse. Edge goes to Oakland based on talent, but nothing will surprise me in this division. Certainly, it's too close to call to make any predictions or recommend a wager. No play.
AFC SOUTH -- Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston
Jags and Texas have virtually no chance in this division, which pretty much leaves us with the Titans and Colts. Trouble is -- predicting what Indianapolis and Tennessee are going to do next week, let alone next season, is impossible. Colts defense is one of the worst I've ever seen (which is sure to improve with new coach) while Titans are now aging and riddled with players coming off injuries. It's quite possible the winner of this division will be 9-7 or 8-8 and will get bounced out of the playoffs like a slam dunk. Which team that ends up being is anyone's guess. No play.
AFC NORTH -- Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Baltimore
Steelers should win this division by default, although Cleveland is a solid darkhorse choice at 8-1. Pittsburgh is listed at 1-2 (same as Tampa in a similar situation -- very weak division). It's hard to imagine a scenario where Steelers do not win the "AFC North," unless you believe the theory that Steelers overachieved last season (certainly possible). The team to watch here is the feisty Browns, who now have a defense, will get back healthy starters on offense, and now have a head coach that has proven he can win in the NFL. Browns are still probably a year away, but could sneak in as a wild card. Then again, if Steelers get hit with injuries, Cleveland becomes the odds on favorite in this division. Forget the Ravens -- which are now a sad shell of the former team that won the Super Bowl just two years ago. Now, Modell wants the starters to take pay cuts to free up salary cap money. No quarterback. Baltimore is now a .500 team, at best and has a team that won't be producing many points. Bengals could be an interesting long shot at 17-1. But the trouble is they simply have shown no ability to string together a series of wins at any time in the last decade. The offense is abysmal. Again -- major quarterback issues. The NFL has produced a number of surprises in recent years, and the Browns appear to be the team in this division ready to take that next step. Jaguars won their division in their fourth year, and Browns could do the same with some breaks. Playing Cleveland at 8-1.
AFC EAST -- New York, Buffalo, Miami, New England
Patriots are 1-1 (even money) to repeat as champions, but I'm not convinced they are worth that price as the favorite. I'd put them closer to 8-5. Jets are a legitimate threat and go off at the value price of 16-5 in Edwards' second year as head coach. That's a very attractive number, which I would take were it not for Jets' quarterback concerns. Miami is also worth a look at 3-2, but playing in a division where three teams can possibly win it. Buffalo still appears to be a year away in a rebuilding phase. However, they will be much healthier this season and could make a solid bet to go OVER the season win total (I project it at 6 wins -- in which case I think they'll win 7). Too close to call between the Patriots, Dolphins, and the potentially strong well-coached Jets.
