NFL "Hilton" plays and write-ups

[whodey]

posted week 3 plays and write-ups, going to just keep this all in one thread from here on out...

This is a contest run exactly like the Hilton contest but it's local. My current record is 9-5-1, sitting in first place.


Results for each week so far are as follows

1= 3-2

2= 2-3

3= 4-0-1

4= 3-2

5= 3-2

6= 2-3

7= 2-3

8= 4-1

9= 4-1

10= 3-2

picks and write-ups will be posted every Thursday afternoon for the one or two people that are bored enough to read em


GL and thanks for stopping by! :toast:

 

[whodey]

Cin @ CLE
My Bengals head to Cleveland for the battle of Ohio, both squads coming off huge wins. After trading RB Trent Richardson to Indy, 3rd string QB Brian Hoyer filling in for an injured Weeden, and Josh Gordon coming back from a suspension, the brownies won their first game of the season against the Vikings who know are sitting at 0-3. Cincinnati won at home in a crazy ass game with the Packers. Both teams have great defenses and know each other very well. I feel like this will be just a bit of a let down game for Dalton and company, look for a tough fought defensive struggle here. Points will be hard to come by in this one, so I'll take the 4.5 points and the home team riding a bit of momentum from last week.
Play: CLE +4.5

Ind @ JAX
Andrew Luck and Trent Richardson coming off a huge win in SF, now headed to Jacksonville to play the leagues worst franchise. The colts will go through the motions here in this road game. Look for them to get the win but I just don't see this going over a touchdown. The jags are a bit healthier this week and should have an easier time creating running lanes against the colts this week after getting smacked around last week by the seahawks.
Play: JAX +7.5

chi @ DET
The bears have owned the lions as of recently and have started this season with an impressive 3-0 out of the gates. The lions aren't doing too shabby themselves at 2-1, took a major hit this past week when WR Nate Burleson broke his arm in a car crash. But the bears took a more crucial hit to there defense this past week losing probowl defensive lineman Henry Melton to a season-ending knee injury. Add in CB Charles Tillman is still recovering from a groin strain, and I see Megatron finally having a big game against the bears in the motorcity.
Play: DET -3

was @ OAK
both teams walk into this match-up with poor records, with the redskins being a huge disappointment so far this season. Prior looks to be on the sidelines this week as the raiders will likely have Flynn under center. Look for RG3 to finally look like RG3... well at least this weekend anyways.
Play: was -3

mia @ NO
Betting against Brees and the saints in the superdome can create financial ruin on one's bankroll. Prime time game, two undefeated teams collide in what I think will be the best game of the week. I really like what the dolphins have proven so far, and feel that there is tons of value going with Miami. They opened the season with back to back road games, going to cleveland and hanging 23 on that tough defense and then to Indy to win a back and forth contest against the mighty Andrew Luck. Last week Tannehill showed poise and confidence leading a last minute drive to the endzone to beat the Falcons 27-23. I think this will be another back and forth contest where the dolphins come out victorious. So I'll take that 6.5 points vegas has graciously given us.
Play: mia +6.5 :0074


GL ALL! opcorn2

 

[genosays]

Thanks for sharing .... like them all except Jax, can't trust them until they show a little life

 

[Zamo]

Cin @ CLE
My Bengals head to Cleveland for the battle of Ohio, both squads coming off huge wins. After trading RB Trent Richardson to Indy, 3rd string QB Brian Hoyer filling in for an injured Weeden, and Josh Gordon coming back from a suspension, the brownies won their first game of the season against the Vikings who know are sitting at 0-3. Cincinnati won at home in a crazy ass game with the Packers. Both teams have great defenses and know each other very well. I feel like this will be just a bit of a let down game for Dalton and company, look for a tough fought defensive struggle here. Points will be hard to come by in this one, so I'll take the 4.5 points and the home team riding a bit of momentum from last week.
Play: CLE +4.5

Ind @ JAX
Andrew Luck and Trent Richardson coming off a huge win in SF, now headed to Jacksonville to play the leagues worst franchise. The colts will go through the motions here in this road game. Look for them to get the win but I just don't see this going over a touchdown. The jags are a bit healthier this week and should have an easier time creating running lanes against the colts this week after getting smacked around last week by the seahawks.
Play: JAX +7.5

chi @ DET
The bears have owned the lions as of recently and have started this season with an impressive 3-0 out of the gates. The lions aren't doing too shabby themselves at 2-1, took a major hit this past week when WR Nate Burleson broke his arm in a car crash. But the bears took a more crucial hit to there defense this past week losing probowl defensive lineman Henry Melton to a season-ending knee injury. Add in CB Charles Tillman is still recovering from a groin strain, and I see Megatron finally having a big game against the bears in the motorcity.
Play: DET -3

was @ OAK
both teams walk into this match-up with poor records, with the redskins being a huge disappointment so far this season. Prior looks to be on the sidelines this week as the raiders will likely have Flynn under center. Look for RG3 to finally look like RG3... well at least this weekend anyways.
Play: was -3

mia @ NO
Betting against Brees and the saints in the superdome can create financial ruin on one's bankroll. Prime time game, two undefeated teams collide in what I think will be the best game of the week. I really like what the dolphins have proven so far, and feel that there is tons of value going with Miami. They opened the season with back to back road games, going to cleveland and hanging 23 on that tough defense and then to Indy to win a back and forth contest against the mighty Andrew Luck. Last week Tannehill showed poise and confidence leading a last minute drive to the endzone to beat the Falcons 27-23. I think this will be another back and forth contest where the dolphins come out victorious. So I'll take that 6.5 points vegas has graciously given us.
Play: mia +6.5 :0074


GL ALL! opcorn2

Good read and write up! :0corn Like the fact you are in a league where they mimmic Hilton :0074 - FOr some reason...never thought of it :sadwave: ...but I like the idea of it a lot and cost less than Hilton (not the :0071 but thats okay) and don't need to use a Vegas runner. Would be really cool if maybe next year Jack would consider something like his dog ML picks :shrug: he is doing this season though it is probably waaaay to much work. :scared :scared

I would like to do it for money so will maybe get a pool of 20+ people I know to create one. :shrug: Curious...How many people are in your league? What's the entry fee? Is it run thru a website or manually? Will they allow more to join?

Regarding your picks- You definitely go anti-public. :0008

I definitely agre with Wash and Det but it appears Pryor will play and D Moore will stretch the field in this game against worst secondary in football.....but Washington is beyond hungry and soooooo desperate, I see them covering on the road. I got the Lions earlier this week at -1 when lines came out. :toast:

Other games- some not touching so I wish you best of luck!!

ClE shot its load and CIncy is waaay better and coming of a huge emotional win even though non divisional/conference. I see Cincy winning but could be back door material. :shrug: Gordon and Cameran are excellent but no running game and Cincy is a FAR superior team- gun to head I would play CIncy- but so is everyone else so no play for me...:0corn

Indy/Jax- Just like other poster- not putting any $$ on Jax- Played the, +21 once this year and not getting burned again :flush:

MIA/NO- I 100% agree and created a thread- best game this week as well but not playing it- Just want to watch and study both teams for future wagers- Haven't watched a full game by each team yet- so watching as just a football fan, Jimmy Graham for fantasy :mj07: and scouting so best of luck with your play! :0074

Keep posting as I like your thread and again good luck with your plays!! :0008

 

[whodey]

much appreciated zamo and genosays


the contest is the third year we have done it, $200 entry, only 15 people this year but it has grown each year so thats cool, everyone texts in their picks and then we post on facebook. I doubt people would be down for added entrants this late but I could ask. If anyone runs one next year on this I would be down to get in for sure, Ill have to let you all know come next year if anyone is interested in joining, never really occurred to me to start a thread to see if anyone was interested.

Yeah this will be the only time I play jax if they let me down here, probably suicide :facepalm:

And with the Bengals, I would very much love that! either my team does what they need to do and continues to gain momentum and confidence, or they take a step back and struggle a bit... I have just seen too many times where they let me down, Andy Dalton can be very inconsistent at times, Browns defense isn't all that bad, just think the backdoor will most certainly be wide open for this one worst case :shrug:

 

[Zamo]

I didnt mean to suggest I would be interested FYI for this seosn- just next year. Which lines do you use- Sheridans or someone post on Facebook from somewhere else? Again- think it is a cool idea! :0074 :0074

My buddy is a die-hard Bengals fan from Cincy and yes- I do know exactly what you mean!

GL man!!

 

[whodey]

got ya.. we go to thespread.com and click on the hilton lines under the nfl tab. It's a fun contest, with a decent prize pool at the end of the race. We did winner take all the first two seasons, this year we decided to make it 2000/800/200 to keep it friendly as it continues to grow

 

[The Mover]

Who... Thanks for your opinions. GL

 

[whodey]

no problem mover

ready for another exciting and profitable week!


let's get it madjackers :box2:

 

[whodey]

buyer beware!!!

buyer beware!!!

the most popular selection each week for the first 3 weeks has gone 0-2-1
week 1= CIN push
week 2= NO loss
week 3= NYG loss

this week there is not a clear choice, but a tie on 3, the selections most chosen were WAS, CIN, and NO.

on the other side on 2 of em, but i'm rolling the dice with WAS this week :scared


so keep that in mind ya'll

 

[whodey]

not too bad

not too bad

3-1 heading into monday night with miami remaining...

what was I thinking backing the jags :facepalm: oh well... that will be the first and last time my money goes on them bums.. should have listened to geno and zamo!


see ya later :0008

 

[whodey]

week 5 report

lw: 3-2

ytd: 12-7-1

position: 1/15

ne @ CIN (-2)
the bengals host brady and the patriots this week after a disappointing loss to the cleveland browns last week. the patriots will be taking the field without vince wilfork after a torn Achilles, making room for gio to get loose. He is getting more touches each week and should be getting the bulk of the load this week. Playing at home is exactly what this team needs after a lackluster performance last week, this should be a high scoring affair with the bengals getting a much needed W against a good squad.
Play: CIN -2

sea (-3) @ IND
seahawks are a completely different team when playing away. this should be a good game with the home team giving seattle all they can handle. Andrew Luck catching a full FG at home is hard to pass up, they are playing some very good ball this year.
Play: IND +3

no @ CHI (pk)
the saints looked great on monday night against the dolphins, moving the ball exceptionally well against a solid front 7 in miami. the saints are a solid team for sure, and a very tough out indoors, but this game will be played outside against a fuming bears team that didn't play all that well last week against division rivals, the detroit lions. I am sensing a sloppy game with lots of running the ball.. I'll go with Forte to put this team on his back this sunday and get the W at home.
Play: CHI pk

kc (-2.5) @ TEN
the chiefs looking unbelievable this season and going up against a titans team that will be without their starting quarterback. Should make for an easy day right? wrong. like I said the other week, teams just don't ever play too well in Tennessee. I suppose I just don't understand the line all that much in this one, I would expect this to be a bit higher especially with fitzpatrick getting the start. My gut tells me this is a low scoring affair, so a strong defense, scrappy quarterback hoping to prove himself again, playing at home, catching points.. ok let's gamble
Play: TEN +2.5

den (-7.5) @ DAL
This could be the dumbest thing I have done since backing the jags last week :facepalm: but here is another line I don't quite understand, denver is rolling teams up each week and manning is well... manbearpig on steroids.. and dallas secondary has been pitiful this year so far.. why in the hell is this line so fucking low? :mj03: again this one probably has as good as a chance as my last weeks jags play :sadwave: but I guess I am anticipating everyone taking the broncos so if dallas can keep it within the number here it will be a great pick up on the field
:00x11 :00x11 :00x11 :00x11 :00x11
Play: DAL +7.5


Also figure it can't be too bad of an idea to fade all the undefeated teams who all coincidentally have away games this week...

this was a tough card for me to break down this week so let's hope for the best and try to escape this week without imploding opcorn2


GL everyone :toast:

 

[Zamo]

I ABSOLUTELY LOVE YOUR CARD THIS WEEK!!!

I agree with everything you are saying!! I am a Cowboy fan as you may know...so didn't play this game...but I am already on 4 of your plays! I made 5 plays thus far on teams....your top 4 and Buffalo tonight with the over.

I wish us luck!! I am by no means a great capper like other guys in this forum...but I do know quite a bit about the NFL and do have a strong opinion. In the NFl....as well all know.... "anything" can happen each week....expect the unexpected....but I analyzed these games already and feel just about the same way you do. I agree on Dallas play by the way- just as a fan in a big game (loss most likely) simply don't want action on it!

CHEERS!!! :toast: :toast:

 

[Jorgesca]

Agree with your picks and like your write ups, good luck

 

[Theboundbook]

Love KC, Den and Mia...

MIA dog ML in order poss.....​

 

[StevieD]

Great write ups. The Dallas Denver game is one of the few games I will not have any action on but want to watch it.

 

[Scrapman]

OMFG i agree even tho my conest picks would currently be #1 14.5 points with me going 5-0 again last week Colts - 7 1/2 LVH line Chiefs - 4 Broncos - 10 1/2 Patriots + 2 1/2 Saints - 6 1/2

just making picks for next year proof !!!

BUT i might go on my own next year no partners only problem is going to Vegas to register!

 

[whodey]

thanks everyone... feeling better about the picks with each passing minute


this week the most popular selection in our contest is the saints... runner up is a tie between the patriots and the broncos


so looks like I'm getting the situation I was hoping for.. no backing out now..

:bigun: :bigun: :bigun: :bigun:
time to bring out the big guns this week and build up this lead while I got a cushion and time left in the season in case damage control is needed

GL this week to all :toast:

 

[whodey]

weather update for bengals/patriots

weather update for bengals/patriots

I'm from the area, and its been raining steady for 24 straight hours and not supposed to let up until around 2.. So it might not be as high scoring as I originally thought but I would say this certainly favors the home team and Giovani


GL Madjackers! Let's get it today :box2:

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Very interesting and well-thought out anaysis. I adjusted a play based on your comments.

Thanks for posting.


-- Nolan Dalla