NFL history says there will be one upset this weekend

[Toby Scot]

If your thinking about taking both home teams this weekend you might want to think again if you believe in NFL history. Since 1978 when the NFL introduced the wildcard round into the playoffs there have been at least two road wins overall combined in all three rounds (wild card, semis,finals). This year there has been only one road win with the Atlanta Falcons beating Green Bay. NFL history says there will be another road win this weekend.

Since 1978 there have been six opportunities for the conference final home teams to sweep if only one road team won straight up in the wild card or conference semi rounds combined. Here are those six conference final results.

(1) 1986
N.Y. GIANTS 17-0 (-7) Washington
Denver 23-20 (+3) CLEVELAND

(2) 1988
CINCINNATI 21-10 (-4) Buffalo
San Francisco 28-3 ( E ) CHICAGO

(3) 1990
BUFFALO 51-3 (-7) L.A. Raiders
N.Y. Giants 15-13 (+8) SAN FRANCISCO

(4) 1994
San Diego 17-13 (+9) PITTSBURGH
SAN FRAN 38-28 ( -7-) Dallas

(5) 1998
Atlanta 30-27 (+10-) MINNESOTA
DENVER 23-10 (-9 ) N.Y. Jets

(6) 2000
N.Y. GIANTS 41-0 (+3) Minnesota
Baltimore 16-3 (+6-) OAKLAND

As you can see a home and a road team won in each year. The pointspread was not a factor and a six point teaser for the home teams would have lost each time.

Since 1973 there have been seven times where the home team won all four games in the conference semi-final round. Here are the results in the conference finals.

(1) 1973
MIAMI 27-10 (-6-) Oakland
Minnesota 27-10 (+1) DALLAS

(2) 1974
MINNESOTA 14-10 (-4) Los Angeles
Pittsburgh 24-13 (+5-) OAKLAND

(3) 1988
CINCINNATI 21-10 (-4) Buffalo
San Francisco 28-3 ( E ) CHICAGO

(4) 1990
BUFFALO 51-3 (-7) L.A.Raiders
N.Y. Giants 15-13 (+8) SAN FRANCISCO

(5) 1991
BUFFALO 10-7 (-11) Denver
WASHINGTON 41-10 (-13) Detroit

(6) 1994
San Diego 17-13 (+9) PITTSBURGH
SAN FRAN 38-28 (-7-) Dallas

(7) 1998
Atlanta 30-27 (+10-) MINNESOTA
DENVER 23-10 (-9) N.Y. Jets

Once again adding three results to the four we had in the first angle we find at least one road team getting the money in all seven years with the 1991 Buffalo Bill and 49ers the only two home teams to win straight up (2 road teams won straight up in the wild card round in 1991). Again a six point teaser for both home teams would have failed all seven times.

Since 1982, there have been 27 teams playing with conference road revenge in the playoffs that played in the same road role in the regular season (division not included). These road teams were 5-22 straight up and 8-18-1 against the spread which includes three results in this year's playoffs. These road teams in the conference finals were 3-7 straight up and 2-7-1 ATS. This year's finals will be only the third time since 1982 that both road teams have conference road revenge from the regular season. Here are the other two results in the conference finals.

(1) 1998
CINCINNATI 21-10 (-4) Buffalo
San Francisco 28-3 ( E ) CHICAGO

(2) 1990
BUFFALO 51-3 (-7) L.A. Raiders
N.Y. Giants 15-13 (+8) SAN FRANCISCO

Only three out of ten road teams with revenge won straight up in the conference finals. Two of those winners are in the same situation we have this weekend with both road teams on the same day having conference road revenge. Again in those two years a home team and a road team won and covered with a teaser for the home teams being a losing proposition once again.

Overall, nine different conference finals since 1973, in three different angles with one road team winning straight up eight out of nine years going 9-0 ATS, and one home team winning straight up nine out of nine years going 8-0-1 ATS. Teasing both home teams by six points you would have lost all nine times.


If you believe NFL history will repeat itself, like I do, do not tease the home teams this weekend and you should know what to do in the second game after the first game is over. One of these two should be the SuperBowl.

(1) Oakland / Tampa Bay ?
(2) Philadelphia / Tennessee ?

Good luck,
Toby Scot Sports

 

[Pujo21]

That's a nice money line too in The Oak/Tenn game

 

[GM]

Re: NFL history says there will be one upset this weekend

If you believe NFL history will repeat itself, like I do, do not tease the home teams this weekend and you should know what to do in the second game after the first game is over. One of these two should be the SuperBowl.

(1) Oakland / Tampa Bay ?
(2) Philadelphia / Tennessee ?

I'll start by saying I appreciate the work you've done researching all of this. Certainly that took a lot of time to look all that up and write it up. Unfortunately, I can't agree with the logic in your summation.

I just want to be clear on what you are saying. Since only one road team has won outright in the playoffs thus far, you are saying if Philly wins the early game, Tennessee is almost a sure thing to win the late game? I'm curious how you feel a game 3000 miles away, in the other conference, will have an effect on the game in Oakland. Sorry, I don't mean to be a smart ass, but it makes no sense to say it HAS to happen, and if TB can't pull it off then Tennessee must.

Also, by the same logic, had there been 2 or more upsets up to this point, you wouldn't feel that either of the underdogs this week were necessarily a sure thing to win their games this weekend? Say, for example, NYG had beaten SF in the first week, and then TB had taken out NYG last week. We'd still have the same matchups this weekend, nothing really would be any different...but now an upset win is not a sure thing this weekend because we've already had two?

Suppose Atlanta had not upset Green Bay. Would that mean BOTH Tampa Bay and Tennessee must win this weekend?

This is just the sort of logic that confounds me. Each game is a separate event unto itself. Flipping a coin 10 times and having it come up heads 10 times does not mean it must come up tails on the next flip, or even within the next hundred flips. I am not saying there WON'T be an upset this weekend, but to say there HAS to be based on results of games having no bearing on these games...no, sorry...can't agree.

Good luck.

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

GM, your thoughts are accurate.

Small sample conditional probability not gonna get it done.

GL on the gms, fellas.

 

[txag]

guess what toby there will be 2 upsets this weekend , not one.

 

[Toby Scot]

GM,

Thank you for the reply. First of all, no where in my post did I say it was a lock to go opposite of the first game. The post was intended to show only what happened in the past and people can decide for themselves if it is valuable information. I was also showing the fact that playing opposite of the first game just on the blind you would have won.
My philosophy on handicapping these games may be different or awkward to some but it is this same philosophy that many are not looking at which has made me successful.
To answer some of your questions. Lets assume the Giants won the game last week. My theory would be done, I would be looking at other angles, and I would not have even posted the results. If all the home teams won coming in to this round I would be on the road teams one at a time.
All trends, angles, and systems are going to break at one time or another. You can make a case for any one of these four football teams handicapping them individually this weekend and I can give you something for the other side of the game whether it be stats, systems, or intangibles for the teams. Sure this could be the first time only one road team wins in the playoffs. One year they all might win but until it happens I will stick to my guns. My philosophy for the second game is as good as anything else I have seen or heard out there.
The fact is this is a business and the money is going to come heavy on both home teams by the public. In my opionion the oddsmakers did not set these lines high enough. Consider the fact that the last 52 conference final games where the home team was laying less than ten points the winner of the game is 50-0-2 against the spread. My personal opinion is if the Eagles win and get the money which they should considering the spread should not be a factor they will give it back on Oakland. It reminds of the start of the playoffs with the public winning on the Jets and giving it right back on the Packers. If Tampa Bay wins I believe it will be Oakland. Gruden leaves for Tampa and gets to the next level, Oakland will as well. I also just can not see a Tampa/Tennessee SuperBowl which again if Oakland wins they should cover.
Which ever route you take this weekend in handicapping these games by stats, systems, or flipping a coin good luck, but I know I am playing on something that has not lost in 25 years and I believe in the angles as well as myself. I also know that I am smarter than a quarter.

Good luck,
Toby Scot

 

[the_fix_is_on]

Not me. I'm barely smarter than a dime.
And I had an uncle who was so tight, he tried to squeeze a turd out of a buffalo nickel.