NFL INFO WEEK 8

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NFL Opening line report: Is GB getting too much love?


Brett Favre has played in two Super Bowls and countless playoff games, but if he answered honestly he?d tell you this is the biggest game of his life.

NFL fans and bettors have been anticipating this matchup for years but the pointspread is somewhat anticlimatic. The books are dealing -3 Green Bay making them the favs because of the home field. Mike Seba, a senior oddsmaker with Las Vegas Sports Consultants, doesn?t agree with the number.

?We sent out -3, but, in my personal opinion, I thought it would have been better at -2.5,? Seba says. ?Green Bay would normally be getting 3 or 3.5 points for home field, but this line suggests it?s a bit more.?

While the Packers have dominated their last two opponents (Detroit and Cleveland), Minnesota has impressed throughout the campaign, even in a losing effort against the Steelers.

The Vikings were in good shape to cover and win outright at Pittsburgh, but two late TD returns kept Favre and Co. from improving to 7-0 straight up.

The Pack have been a little less consistent this season with their most impressive win coming against the Bears in Week 1 at Lambeau.

?I think Green Bay is getting closer, but I don?t think they?re there quite yet,? Seba says.

The biggest match of the week on the AFC pits the Broncos against the Ravens. Denver is getting a shade more than just the standard 3-point home field, but Seba says it?s with good reason.

?This game would have been -7 or -7.5 (Baltimore favored) at the beginning of the season. You have to remember that teams that are coming off a loss and a bye week are hitting at about an 80 percent clip against the spread.?

The Ravens lost 33-31 to the Vikings before their bye week, making it three straight losses a club many place still among the league?s best.

Meanwhile the Broncos are in a much better position sitting undefeated and comfortably ahead in the AFC West. Seba says the difference in desperation between the two sides is something to consider.

?It?s not always who you play, it?s sometimes when you play them.?

The San Francisco 49ers know all about that. They were the talk of the West Coast after starting the year 2-0 and nearly knocking off the Vikes in Minnesota. But two straight losses make San Fran an 11-point dog against the pipsqueak squashing Colts.

Niners coach Mike Singletary is going to keep former No. 1 overall draft pick Alex Smith under center after he engineered a near magical comeback Sunday against the Texans.

?I think San Francisco has the better chance of winning with Smith. That?s the case right now, but it might not be in a few weeks.?

Seba also isn?t completely sold on the 6-0 (5-1 ATS) Colts.

?I?m not so sure on Indianapolis because they still haven?t played anyone. All they?re doing is blowing out bad teams.?

Indy?s lone win against a quality opponent was in Week 2 at Arizona.

The Jets, fresh off an easy win over the Raiders, get a chance to avenge their Week 6 loss to the Dolphins, in a game that could decide second place in the AFC East.

Seba says LVSC sent out -4 and was surprised to see the number drop to -3.5 so quickly.

?If you look at the power ratings, the line is probably closer to -6.?

Seba also likes the psyche of New York compared to the Dolphins. He suggests the loss to the Saints had to be a demoralizing one for the Fish, who led that game 24-3 at one point.

?It?s almost like coming into this game you have two different mentalities. I think -4 or even -4.5 is the better number.?

Other games this weekend: Cleveland gets 13.5 at Chicago; Houston gives 3.5 points at Buffalo; Seattle gets 9.5 points on the road at Dallas; The 0-6 Titans give 3 points at home to the Jags; Oakland gets 16.5 visiting San Diego; Arizona is giving 9.5 points to the Panthers and New Orleans is a 9.5-point home fave Monday night against the Falcons.

The line for the Rams-Lions game won?t be released until the books know who?ll start at quarterback for Detroit and the pointspread for the Giants-Eagles game will come down following Philly?s game against the Skins.

 

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Grizzled Gunslinger vs. Prot?g?, Take 2

Grizzled Gunslinger vs. Prot?g?, Take 2

Grizzled Gunslinger vs. Prot?g?, Take 2


The old, grizzled gunslinger is going to mosey back into town for a showdown with his former prot?g? on Sunday.

In other words, Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings visit Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Sunday (4:15 pm ET, FOX), an NFL matchup many Football Betting fans have had circled on their calendars since the schedule was released.

The Packers are a 3-point favorite and the over/under total is at 47 in NFL Betting Odds at betED.com.

As most NFL Football Betting fans know, Sunday?s tilt in Green Bay is a rematch of the NFC North rivals? previous meeting this season in a thrilling Monday Night Football matchup.

Favre and his new teammates won that round by a 30-23 count as 5-point home favorites on Oct. 5.

On the injury front, both Favre (hip) and Rodgers (foot) have had limited practice time this week but both will play Sunday.

The outcomes of recent Minnesota-Green Bay games have been about as even as you can get, with each winning five of the past 10 and each covering the spread five times.

Minnesota will be in rebound-mode, as the Vikings are coming off their first setback of the season last Sunday. Minnesota lost 27-17 to the Pittsburgh Steelers as a 6-point road underdog, with the score going under the total of 46.5.

Favre passed for 334 yards with an interception and RB Adrian Peterson rushed for 69 yards and a TD on 18 carries.

Meanwhile, the Packers beat the Cleveland Browns 31-3 as a 9-point favorite, with the score falling under the over/under total of 41.5.

Rodgers passed for 246 yards with three touchdowns for Green Bay.

Green Bay (4-2 SU and ATS) has won two straight. Minnesota is 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS.

 

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Sunday's key NFL line moves

Sunday's key NFL line moves

Sunday's key NFL line moves


Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 41.5)

Opening line: -3.5, 41.5

Where the early action is: 52 percent - Broncos

Comments: There were loads of bets that came in on this game early this week. The pointspread is solid and hasn?t moved. We are getting great two-way action on straight bets. There is very little straight bet action on the total of this game.

The teaser action is also fairly split in this one. In a regular teaser, we have slightly more bettors are taking the Broncos at +9.5. The total is also receiving good teaser action, however it?s heavily one-sided to the over, bringing the number down to 35.5 in a regular teaser.

Fact: Baltimore running back Ray Rice leads the NFL with a total of 127.7 average yards from scrimmage.

Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears (-13, 40)

Opening line: -14, 40.5

Where the early action is: 65 percent - Bears

Comments: Not much interest in this game. The small amount of action we?ve taken on has been on both side of this large pointspread. The opening line dropped a point off the key number -14 early on, but still no one is really touching -13.

Going with a teaser with the Bears -7 is the preferred bet here.

Fact: The Browns have zero touchdowns by their wide receivers or rushing touchdowns scored by their running backs this season.

Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills (+3.5, 41.5)

Opening line: -3.5, 40.5

*Wise Action: Over 40.5

Where the early action is: 66 percent - Texans

Comments: Texans will have their star receiver back despite suffering from a bruised lung. That bit of news got the wise guys taking the over and the total has moved up because of it.

This isn?t a very popular game; only thing really happening is a tease bringing the Texans down to +2.5

Fact: This season the Texans have averaged 27.6 points on the road.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3, 47)

Opening line: -3, 47.5

Where the early action is: 90 percent ? Vikings

Comments: What a huge decision this is going to be for the book. This is a very popular game; we?ve been taking steady action on the Vikings all week. Everyone is backing the Vikings +3 and are also teasing them to +9.

The total is also getting hit by teasers. The bettors love the over in a teaser bringing the number down to 41.

If the action continues like this, expect the line to drop off the key number 3 by game time.

Fact: It?s been 30 consecutive games in which the Vikings have not given up a 100 yard rusher.

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts (-13, 45)

Opening line: -13, 44

*Wise Action: Under 44

Where the early action is: 94 percent - Colts

Comments: The Colts again will be another monster decision for us this week. This game is setting up to be a record high, one-sided root for the house. The most popular bet of the week is teasing the Colts down to -7 to the Over down to 39.

We warn caution betting the over, there is wise action on the under. That bet is a good one to follow because of the overwhelming over action, don?t expect the total to drop.

Fact: Peyton Manning has connected on 72 of 112 passes for 856 yards, five touchdowns and six interceptions in the three previous meetings with the 49ers.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-3, 40.5)

Opening line: -3.5, 41

Where the early action is: 72 percent - Jets

Comments: The Jets are taking on a big chunk of the straight pointspread bets, but the Dolphins are getting more teaser action at +9. This is a solid line; it?s simply a key number no one is going to move off of.

The over is at 70 percent more bets than the under. The total dropped a half a point early on, but we expect that to possibly move back to original number if the action stays this way.

Fact: The Jets rushing for over 300 yards in their last two games is an accomplishment only six other teams in NFL have done. No team has ever done it three consecutive times.

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions (-4, 43.5)

Opening line: -4, 44

Where the early action is: 97 percent - Lions

Comments: This will end up being a low volume one-sided game for us. Not the most interesting game on the board, but if anyone is going to bet on it, there isn?t much of a choice. The Lions have their big guns back from injury. QB Matt Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson are both listed as probable.

We are almost certain not to receive any Rams bets, so look for this line to move off the key number 4 closer to game time.

Fact: These two teams combined have only won seven games since the halfway point of 2007.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5, 46)

Opening line: -10, 45

*Wise Action: Over 45

Where the early action is: 80 percent - Cowboys

Comments: The wise guys are taking the over in this game; that play could indicate the pointspread is too much for a high-scoring game. The line did move off the key number 10 early on even though the public is taking the Cowboys. We want to settle the line onto 9, but not sure if the action will allow us. Cowboys -3.5 in a regular teaser is very popular.

Fact: Cowboys WR Mile Austin has a league leading eight catches for 25 yards or more this season.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-17, 41.5)

Opening line: -17, 42.5

*Wise Action: Under 42.5

Where the early action is: 50-50 split

Comments: Very low volume on this one. The popular bet here is using the Chargers at -11 to fill in a winning teaser. The total was hit by the wise guys under 42.5; look for the total to drop even more. The pointspread will move off of the key number 17 down to 16.5 or 16 by mid afternoon.

Fact: Chargers QB-Phillip Rivers is 8-0 against the Raiders.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3, 44.5)

Opening line: -3, 44

Where the early action is: 75 percent - Titans

Comments: The 0-6 Titans this week (even as favorites) are getting majority of the pointspread action. This spread will not move off of the key number 3. Teasers are big in this matchup, Jacksonville +9 and Titans +3 are both popular plays. The total moved up a half point, but we are taking more under money. If the over/under action continues like that, we?ll be looking to move it back down.

Fact: Vince Young has been named the starter. His passer rating this year is 0.0 after two appearances coming off the bench. He is 0-for-5 with 1 interception.

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-10, 41.5)

Opening line: -9, 43.5

*Wise Action: Under 43.5

Where the early action is: 61 percent - Cardinals

Comments: Early in the week it was all Cardinals action and the line moved up to the key number -10. Since then, the action has trickled back towards the Panthers. The wise guys hammered the total under and moved the line two points. This pointspread is poised to stay on the number 10.

Fact: Carolina DE Julius Peppers has six sacks in six games and is on pace for a career-high 16.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (+1, 44.5)

Opening line: Eagles -1.5, 44.5

*Wise Action: Giants +1.5

Where the early action is: 99 percent ? Giants

Comments: Just before it was made public that Eagles RB-Brian Westbrook is out for this game the wise guys had already pounded the Giants at +1.5. Now the Giants are favored by 1. The Giants are also taking on big Teaser action that makes the Giant +5. The total is getting light over action.

No one is betting on the Eagles and the action will remain heavily one-sided. Look for this line to move up as well as the total.

Fact: The last time the Giants sacked McNabb was back on Dec. 9 2007.

 

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NFL Week 8's biggest betting mismatches

NFL Week 8's biggest betting mismatches

NFL Week 8's biggest betting mismatches

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts (-13, 45)

San Francisco's rush defense vs. Indianapolis rush offense

The 49ers are sixth in the NFL in rushing defense while ranking in a tie for second in yards per carry allowed at 3.3. Standout linebacker Patrick Willis, who led the NFC in tackles a year ago, is fourth in the conference in tackles this season.

Even with first-round draft pick Donald Brown in the backfield, the Colts? running game is 27th in the league. While Brown is averaging a solid 4.6 yards per carry on 46 attempts, Joseph Addai has been held to just 3.3 yards per attempt on 82 carries. With Brown doubtful for the contest due to a shoulder injury, Addai will be counted on to step up Sunday.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-3.5, 40.5)

New York's pass defense vs. Miami's pass offense

After giving up a game-winning touchdown in the final seconds earlier this season at Miami, the Jets? defense will be eager for a rematch with the Dolphins. With the NFL's seventh-ranked passing defense, New York will look to disrupt a young quarterback making his first career road start.

Miami signal-caller Chad Henne is still a work in progress for the league's 26th-ranked passing offense. After a couple of strong efforts against the Bills and Jets, Henne's confidence could be a little shaken after a 45.0 QB rating in last week's collapse against the Saints.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-11, 55)

New Orleans pass offense vs. Atlanta's pass defense

The improved balance of the New Orleans offense in 2009 has made the team's air attack more lethal this season. The NFL's sixth-ranked passing unit can unload on defenses that must also respect the Saints emerging ground game.

The Falcons are 26th in the league in passing defense. Atlanta has struggled on the road already this season against Tom Brady and Tony Romo. It could be a long night on Monday against Drew Brees.

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-10, 41.5)

Arizona's third-down defense vs. Carolina's third-down offense

The Cardinals? improved defense has been evident in several areas. One of the improvements has been an ability to stop drives with their third-down defense. The unit is third in the league in third-down conversion percentage defense.

In his last seven starts, Carolina QB Jake Delhomme has been picked off 18 times with only five TD passes. The run began with last year's woeful playoff effort against the Cardinals. With the league's 23rd-ranked third-down conversion percentage offense, Delhomme and the Panthers are likely to face more problems against Arizona in a playoff rematch.

Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears (-13, 40)

Josh Cribbs vs. Chicago's kick return defense

Cleveland kick return specialist Josh Cribbs has been the lone offensive weapon for the Browns in 2009. He leads the NFL in kick return yardage and is fourth in average per return at 28.9. His kick return TD at Pittsburgh helped the Browns gain a cover against the Steelers.

The Bears are 26th in the NFL in kick return average defense.

 

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Can Falcons fly out with a win?

Can Falcons fly out with a win?

Can Falcons fly out with a win?

The New Orleans Saints remain the only unbeaten team left in the NFC and will put that perfect record on the line on ESPN?s Monday Night Football against the Atlanta Falcons.

Scoring nearly 40 points per game, they have quickly become the bettors? darlings, and are backed by almost 90% of Sportsbook.com?s players at last check on 10-point line. Can the Falcons hand New Orleans its first loss? If not, how about its first pointspread defeat?

The Saints and Falcons have long played a competitive & entertaining head-to-head series. In fact, dating back to ?92, underdogs own an 8-9 SU & 13-4 ATS edge. Atlanta needs that trend to continue to stay in the hunt for the NFC South title as it tries to chase down unbeaten New Orleans.

The Falcons are 4-2 after losing at Dallas looking to snap a four-game SU & ATS losing streak in divisional road games. This will be their fourth road contest in L5 weeks. The unbeaten Saints are back at home where they?ve won eight of their L9 games ATS. Strangely, this will be their first divisional contest of ?09, and they are 3-5-1 ATS when hosting NFC South rivals under Sean Payton. In the L9 meetings between these two clubs in New Orleans, six have gone UNDER the total.

It?ll be feast or famine for Monday Night Football in November, and ESPN couldn?t have gotten a better matchup to start with the Falcons visiting the Saints in a key NFC South tilt. Atlanta comes off a 37-21 loss in Dallas, while New Orleans rallied from 21 points down for a 46-34 win in Miami.

Easy would be an accurate way to describe how the Saints offense has marched down the field, be it through the air with Drew Brees or via the ground with Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush. It has put up 45 points or more in four games, including 48 against both the Eagles and New York Giants.

No defense seems to have what it takes to slow down Brees & Co. The Falcons had some success slowing down the Saints a year ago as these teams split their season series with each winning at home. Atlanta allowed 422 yards passing and two touchdowns but also picked off a trio of Brees passes in a 34-20 win at the Georgia Dome in Week 10. A month later, New Orleans won 29-25 at home with Brees throwing for a pair of scores with no turnovers.

After the first two weeks this year, Brees gave every reason to believe he?d challenge single-season passing records for yards and touchdowns. He came out of the gate with a 358-yard, six-touchdown performance against Detroit in the opener, setting a league record for scoring tosses in Week 1 in the process. He then lit up Philadelphia for 311 yards and three touchdowns, giving him 669 yards and nine touchdowns.

In the next two weeks, the Saints showed why they?re so dangerous with the ball. Brees didn?t throw a touchdown pass or crack 200 yards in Buffalo or at home against the New York Jets, but that?s when the running game and defense stepped up. Thomas had 126 yards and two touchdowns and Bush 64 yards against the Bills, and Thomas came back with 86 yards and a score against the Jets.

Either the Falcons have to figure out a way to keep the Saints from lighting up the scoreboard or they?ll be forced to try to outscore them. Atlanta?s defense brings a solid resume to the Superdome. The unit held three of the first six opponents to 14 points or fewer but had a weak effort against the Cowboys.

PREDICTION

It?s not all about offense for the Saints, who scored a pair of defensive touchdowns in the second half last week against the Dolphins. With the spotlight shining bright, so will an offense that seems close to unstoppable. NEW ORLEANS 38, ATLANTA 24

 

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Who really is the NFL's worst team?

Who really is the NFL's worst team?

Who really is the NFL's worst team?

Barring a trade, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell will step to the podium on draft day next April and announce the following:

?With the first pick in the NFL college draft, the (you fill in the team) take (you fill in the player) from (you fill in the college). This team has really earned the first draft pick, because last season we had some truly awful teams and these guys were the worst of the worst, absolute pigs, who had no business calling themselves a professional team.?

OK, the second sentence is just a suggestion for Goodell. But whatever team gets the No. 1 pick next spring will have earned it. No doubt about that. The bottom third of the league has never been weaker and in any other season any of eight teams would be bad enough to earn the right to screw up the first pick.

Jay Kornegay, sportsbook manager at the Las Vegas Hilton, echoes what just about everyone else has been saying.

?I don?t remember the NFL having so many uncompetitive teams,? he says. ?This has been a challenge for all the bookmakers. Sportsbooks have been adjusting each week but we still haven?t caught up to the disparity we are seeing these days. History and experience tells us these types of teams usually will come around and be competitive, but for the most part this year it hasn?t happened yet.?

All books in Las Vegas have been hammered by smart money, plus public bettors who almost always play the favorites. The spread just hasn?t gone high enough as the Hilton and other books wait not-so-patiently for the occasional upset that hasn?t come enough nearly often enough.

Washington. Kansas City. Cleveland. St. Louis. Detroit. Tampa Bay. Oakland. Tennessee. Combined, these bowsers are 7-47 SU. The problem for the books is that they aren?t much better ATS ? 15-38-1. And the numbers look even worse when you consider that the Redskins have already played KC, TB, Detroit and St. Louis.

Determining the worst of this bunch is like figuring out which of the puddles in your backyard has the worst-tasting water. None are that appetizing:

-From head coach to front office to both sides of the ball, the Chiefs are young. They try hard, but quarterback Matt Cassel is starting to resemble a bruised banana. At 1-6 with three blowout losses, KC has only three winnable games (Oakland, Buffalo, Cleveland) in its final 10.

-Washington?s defense is OK, but the Skins would have trouble scoring at the Chicken Ranch. They squandered their easy early-season schedule and have only one competitive game left ? Oakland in mid-December. They have 3-13 written all over them.

-Detroit is the gold standard for lousy organizations, but the 1-5 Lions seem to have solved their quarterback problems. A loss Sunday at home against St. Louis (Lions -4) would be a huge setback for the franchise.

-Tampa Bay (0-7) knew this was not going to be easy, so management turned the team over to a young head coach who could at least get them playing hard. The talent is just not there, although the Bucs do compete. The schedule ahead is not kind, though ? Tampa Bay has maybe a 1-in-4 shot at 0-16.

-The few remaining sober Raiders (2-5) fans are coming around to the thought that the franchise will struggle as long as owner Al Davis is making the calls, and Davis will be making the calls as long he is north of the grass. There are some winnable games left on the schedule, but they?re going nowhere fast without a quarterback.

-For sheer frustration there is Cleveland. The Browns have an offense that can?t move the ball and a coach who is unliked everywhere except in his own living room. Outside of the strange 6-3 win in Buffalo, the Brownies (1-6) have been competitive only once. But they still have Detroit, KC and Oakland on the schedule.

-Did anyone see the Titans? season going in the toilet? You can?t blame Jeff Fisher for going a little batty after watching his team go from 13-3 to 0-7. Is it possible for a team to go from being the best one season to the worst the next?

-That leaves . . . St. Louis. "The Greatest Dung on Earth".

?If you?re looking at just this season,? says handicapper Ben Burns, ?I'd argue that the Rams have been the worst so far. They've scored the fewest points in the league while giving up the most. Five of their seven losses have come by 19 or more points and four of them have come by 28 or more. They have yet to play a competitive game against a team which made the playoffs last year or which will be going to the playoffs this season. If the Rams can somehow manage a win at Detroit this week, then Tampa would move up the list and would be considered the worst of all.?

Coach Steve Spaguolo has the unenviable task of trying to make wine from water, and from Day 1 he must have realized he wasn?t really dealing with a half-decent NFL roster. The faces of the offense are Marc Bulger, who a half-decade ago was the MVP of the Pro Bowl but now is struggling to keep his starting job and Stephen Jackson, one of the top running backs in the league, is now pushing the dreaded 3-0 and has exactly zero rushing TDs this season.

The Rams are now a shell of their glory days around the turn of the century when they pretty much moved the ball at will. They kept things together through 2003, when they finished 12-4 and won the NFC West, but then went into a gradual fade pattern during the middle of the decade, hitting bottom in 2007 (3-13) and last season (2-14). Since winning their final three games of the 2006 season, the Rams have gone 5-34.

St. Louis will likely get points in every game from here on out. After the Lions Sunday, St. Louis will be overmatched against New Orleans, Arizona, Seattle and Chicago before traveling to Tennessee for a game in which we?ll see which team can raise the white flag higher. The Rams figure to go down hard in the final three games as Houston, Arizona and San Francisco battle for the playoffs.

They will earn that No. 1 draft pick.

 

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Texans, Bills to go under

Texans, Bills to go under

Texans, Bills to go under

Marshall: Ugly game to stay below 41 1/2


With quarterback Matt Schaub continuing to exercise a quick trigger finger, the Houston Texans are clicking on offense.

The Buffalo Bills, on the other hand, are not rolling up any style points. The Bills play at a snail's pace, relying on a stingy defense and what little offense rotating quarterbacks Ryan Fitzpatrick and Trent Edwards are able to produce.

The Bills host the Texans today, and The Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall said he expects an ugly game to stay under the total of 411/2.

"The Texans have been able to slow the pace of their games in recent weeks due to improvement from their defense, which has begun to stop the run with some consistency," Marshall said. "Houston is comfortable with this tempo because of Schaub's accuracy and an emerging ground game."

Schaub is the NFL leader with 2,074 passing yards and 16 touchdowns, but the Texans have gone under the total in three of their past four games.

Buffalo has not scored more than 20 points while going under in four of its past five games.

Marshall, 5-2 with recommended totals plays this season, outlines technical notes on other Week 8 games:

? Minnesota at Green Bay: The past three and four of the past five in the series went over the total. Brett Favre and the Vikings are 5-2 over this season. The Packers are 21-10 over in their past 31 games. Edge: Over.

? San Francisco at Indianapolis: The Colts have covered five straight and are on a 15-game regular-season winning streak. However, 49ers coach Mike Singletary is 9-3-2 against the spread (ATS) in his past 14. Edge: 49ers.

? Carolina at Arizona: Panthers coach John Fox is 0-2 straight up and ATS as a road 'dog this season, and 2-9 ATS in the past 11 in the role. The Cards are 3-0 under the total at home this season, but still 19-10 over as hosts since 2006. Edge: Cardinals, Over.

? N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: The Giants are 30-11 ATS since early 2007. Five of the past six in the series went under. The Giants have covered the past four at Philadelphia, and the road team is 7-1 ATS in the past eight in the series. Edge: Giants, Under.

 

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BETWEEN THE LINES

Three reasons to like the Vikings-Packers over (47)

? The last time they played, they combined for 53 points, and you can expect the same kind of offensive display.

? The Vikings have gone over the total in four of their last five games, and the Packers have not scored fewer than 20 points in a game.

? Both teams are averaging more than 200 yards passing and more than 100 yards rushing per game. This should be an offensive-minded game.

Three reasons to like the Giants-Eagles over (44)

? Neither defense is as good as its reputation would make you believe. The Giants have been exposed the last two games.

? Both teams average 46 combined points per game and have gone over the total nine of 12 games.

? The Eagles pass more than 50 percent of the time, and with Brian Westbrook injured, it should increase Philadelphia's dependence on the passing game.

Last week: 0-2

SEASON: 6-8

 

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BETTING: Surging Bills live home 'dog

Backing Texans as road favorite not advisable



It seemed doomed to fail at the time, and the Buffalo Bills' acquisition of veteran wideout Terrell Owens definitely is a bust now.

Owens called his statistics "pathetic" this past week. After guaranteeing in the spring he would score 10 touchdowns this season, Owens has 18 receptions for 242 yards and one touchdown through seven games. The upside is the Bills are 3-4 after winning their past two games on the road.

Buffalo is a home underdog of 3 to 31/2 points against the Houston Texans today, and handicapper Doug Fitz recommends taking 31/2 with the Bills.

The Texans alternated against the spread (L-W-L-W-L-W) before pushing as 3-point favorites in a 24-21 victory over San Francisco last week.

"The Bills are playing well of late," Fitz said. "I'll take the confident, resurgent home team getting points against an inconsistent road favorite. Anybody who takes the Texans as a road favorite is asking for trouble."

Erratic quarterback play from Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick has been a problem for Buffalo, and its inexperienced offensive line has allowed 21 sacks. But Fitzpatrick, who will start again today, has shown signs of competence.

"The Buffalo turnaround can be credited in large part to Fitzpatrick, who won his first start last week against Carolina and rallied the Bills in their upset of the Jets the week prior," Fitz said. "Fitzpatrick has demonstrated the ability to lead this team, and they appear much more confident on offense and defense."

Houston's Matt Schaub leads the NFL in yards passing with 2,074, and star wideout Andre Johnson is expected to play despite leaving last week's game with an injury. The lack of a consistent running attack has been the Texans' trouble spot.

Fitz, a retired police officer and a Las Vegas resident since 1985, runs the Web site Systemplays.com and offers all his plays for free.

"The service relies primarily on situational plays that are based on statistical research," he said. "My motivation for not charging a fee is simply to help the average person who doesn't have the time, patience or motivation to study matchups.

"The majority of the systems come in on the underdogs, but several systems are also geared toward favorites. All plays and records are posted and kept on the site for everyone to see, unlike some sites that claim great winning percentages but don't show you the results."

Fitz breaks down the rest of today's Week 8 schedule:

? Denver at Baltimore (-31/2): Although the Ravens lost three straight before their bye week, they match up well with the Broncos in almost every offensive and defensive category. It's risky to play against a Denver team that is 6-0 straight up and against the spread. But home teams coming off a bye have been strong this year and historically, so I have a slight lean to Baltimore in this situation.

? Cleveland at Chicago (-131/2): After their pathetic performance last week in a 45-10 loss at Cincinnati, the natural inclination would be to look for the Bears to make amends at home and crush the Browns. However, I cannot recommend laying double digits because Chicago has played inconsistently and cannot run the football. The Browns amazingly managed to cover three consecutive games until last week, when they reverted to their usual sacrificial lamb role. Cleveland's offense has been nonexistent, even after the switch to Derek Anderson at quarterback. I'll pass on this one.

? Minnesota at Green Bay (-3): This play simply is taking points with what is the better team, in my opinion. I think Minnesota and New Orleans are the best teams in the league, let alone the NFC. The Vikings have one of the best pass-rushing defenses, and with injuries on the Packers' offensive line and quarterback Aaron Rodgers nursing a sprained foot, the Minnesota defensive line should have the edge. The Vikings will win straight up.

? San Francisco at Indianapolis (-13): Obviously, Peyton Manning and the Colts will score points as always with their prolific offense, but the one thing they don't do well is run the ball. One of the things the 49ers do well is stop the run, allowing 88.8 yards per game on the ground, sixth best in the NFL. San Francisco has almost no prayer of winning the game, but it has been a tough team all season. I think the 49ers keep it closer than most expect.

? Miami at New York Jets (-3): This matchup features two of the league's best running teams. The difference should be Miami's defense, which is better at stopping the run by allowing 86.7 yards per game -- 30 yards less on average than what the Jets' rushing defense allows. These teams are close in talent, so I'll give the edge to the underdog.

? St. Louis at Detroit (-4): The only case I can make for either of these lowly teams is the Lions have an advantage being a home team coming off a bye week. Even with rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford and wideout Calvin Johnson questionable to play, I'll lean slightly to the Lions.

? Seattle at Dallas (-91/2): The Seahawks have shown the capacity to play well at times, and Dallas has been inconsistent at best. The talent level clearly favors the Cowboys, but quarterback Tony Romo has an annoying tendency to negate that talent level with reckless turnovers and poor decisions. I can't make a case for laying this many points with Dallas a team that doesn't seem to be able to establish any kind of consistency. I give a slight nod to Seattle to cover the number.

? Oakland at San Diego (-161/2): The Chargers are not very good this season, despite their high expectations. They are poorly coached and prone to mistakes and silly turnovers, and the most telling stat is they are averaging just 70.5 yards rushing to rank 31st in the league. San Diego was lucky to beat Oakland in Week 1, and the Raiders' defense outplayed them in every way. You might get away with laying this many points with the Saints or another team of that quality, but you're playing with fire laying this kind of number with a Chargers team that is fundamentally weak. Oakland occasionally has shown the ability to play well, and it can keep this close.

? Jacksonville at Tennessee (-3): It's hard to make a convincing case for laying points with the Titans, who are 0-6 straight up and 1-5 against the spread. But again we're looking at a home team coming off a bye. Vince Young takes over at quarterback for Tennessee, and there's no telling how he will play. The Jaguars ripped the Titans 37-17 on Oct. 4. But I'll give a slight nod to the home favorite against an unpredictable opponent.

? Carolina at Arizona (-10): The Cardinals are 1-2 against the spread at home as a favorite in each game. I think they will have a letdown after their huge road win over the New York Giants. I don't put much stock into revenge, but it is worthy to note that it was Arizona that pulled the huge upset in the playoffs at Carolina last season en route to its Super Bowl appearance. The number is too high for a Cardinals team that has not played well at home. I lean to the Panthers, who rank first in the league in pass defense and should be able to contain Kurt Warner.

? New York Giants (-1) at Philadelphia: Despite having lost their past two games, the Giants are the better team, especially on offense. The Eagles don't run the ball well, and with Brian Westbrook likely to miss the game, their running game isn't getting any better against New York's top-ranked defense. The Eagles should have a bit of a Monday night hangover. The Giants will win.

 

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Data suggests backing teams coming off byes

Data suggests backing teams coming off byes

Data suggests backing teams coming off byes

Healing from injuries, extra preparation time benefits of idle week




As the NFL season hits Week 8, it's a good time to take a look at the impact of bye weeks. Twelve teams have competed following a week off, and the rest has benefited the teams and the bettors who have supported them.

After a bye, the rejuvenated teams have gone 8-4 straight up and 7-4-1 against the spread. Of the teams that lost, San Diego had a special teams meltdown against Denver, Miami blew a 21-point lead against New Orleans, Chicago lost a hard-fought game at Atlanta, and San Francisco's second-half rally at Houston came up just short.

Six teams come off the bye today. In one of the most appealing games on the schedule, the unbeaten Broncos visit the Baltimore Ravens (3-3), who have dropped three straight.

The Ravens are 31/2-point favorites, and on paper this looks like a horrible spot for Denver. But those who have tried to buck the Broncos this season have paid dearly. Denver has been the underdog in four of its six games.

"Denver has been one of the few friends the sports books have had this season," Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay said. "The Broncos overcame the horrible spot on a Monday night in San Diego, and they face a similar situation against a team I still consider to be one of the best in the league."

The other four teams off byes -- Detroit, Jacksonville, Seattle and Tennessee -- should have been granted two weeks off.

The Lions, Jaguars, Seahawks and Titans are a combined 6-18, and they all desperately needed a break.

Tennessee's fall from grace has been the season's most confounding disappointment. The Titans, 3-point home favorites over the Jaguars, will start Vince Young at quarterback at the insistence of owner Bud Adams.

Detroit, a 4-point home favorite over the hapless Rams, has shown signs of life. St. Louis might play this game like the Super Bowl out of fear alone. The Rams, at 0-7, are giving last year's winless Lions a run for their money.

Seattle is a 91/2-point underdog at Dallas, and money has poured in on the Cowboys throughout the week. Dallas is a very public team, and everyone saw it deliver a sharp performance off a bye against Atlanta.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants oddsmaker Mike Seba said his approach to setting the lines for teams coming off the shelf takes myriad factors into account.

"The healing process for banged-up teams is a valuable asset," Seba said, "but just as important for the first game back from a break is the extra preparation time they get for a specific opponent, especially when better coaching staffs are involved."

And we can't ignore Brett Favre's return to Lambeau Field, where the revenge-minded Green Bay Packers await.

The Minnesota Vikings are coming off their first loss of the season, after throwing a fourth-quarter turnover party in Pittsburgh. In the heralded Monday game on Oct. 5, Favre passed for 271 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions as the Vikings beat the Packers, 30-23.

LVSC oddsmaker Sean Van Patten said to forget the hype and look at the big picture.

"The opening line for the first meeting between these teams told you they are relatively even, before factoring the home-field edge," Van Patten said. "The situation is critical for the Packers. With a win, they're right back in the picture to win the NFC North. If not, they're likely a wild-card team at best."

Another consideration is the Packers are coming off a cupcake win over Cleveland, while the Vikings in succession have faced Baltimore and Pittsburgh, two teams that can exact a physical toll.

 

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Celebrity/media NFL pickes Week Eight

Celebrity/media NFL pickes Week Eight

Celebrity/media NFL pickes Week Eight
Silver and Black and Brown ? on the gridiron, an ugly confluence of colors
By Sal DeFilippo

Saturday, Oct. 31, 2009 | 1:45 p.m.

Trivia question: When was the last 0-0 tie in NFL history?

Answer: I don?t know. That?s why we have Google, and that 542542 text thingy. And I don?t care.

That?s mostly because I don?t feel the need to look it up. I?ll just wait a couple of months, when the answer becomes, ?Raiders vs. Browns, Dec. 27, 2009.?

The Raiders finally worked their way to the apex of offensive ineptitude by slapping a goose egg on the board last week in a home shutout loss to the Jets. It took hard work for Oakland to finally reach the bottom -- after somehow scoring 20 points in their season-opener and another 13 the following week (it takes a while to get into midseason form), the Raiders? offense settled in, scoring in single digits for their following three games. After a 13-point hiccup a couple of weeks ago, Oakland responded with its best performance of haplessness last week and with an NFL-low five touchdowns and a scoring average of less than nine points per game, the Silver and Black should just embrace their new image: Just punt, baby. The always in-your-face Raiders never seem to avoid conflict, except with the goal line.

Meanwhile, the Browns, fresh off an epic field-goal output in a home whipping by Green Bay, have dodged the end zone in four of seven games this season, and considering this club went its final eight games last season without an offensive touchdown, they clearly get more focused as the season progresses. A shutout or two is definitely on the horizon, including the epic clash with Oakland at season?s end.

Ironically, neither the Raiders nor Browns is the lowest-scoring team in the league. The NFL?s dominant offensive jugger-not is the winless St Louis Rams ? and that?s even after they posted the highest point total among this triumvirate, a spirited 6-point assault on the scoreboard lightbulbs against the Colts. That lifted the Rams? season tally to ? RIP, Ed McMahon, we don?t really need ya for this one anyway ? 60 points! In just seven games.

You?ll recall that the Patriots scored 59 points -- in the snow -- a couple of weeks ago. Enough said there.

A decade ago, when this same franchise was shattering scoring records and dubbed The Greatest Show on Turf en route to winning the Super Bowl, the Rams averaged scored 526 points. At their current pace, the 2009 Rams would need a 62-game season to do that same amount of damage on the scoreboard.

Scary to think that this new Big Three doesn?t include the team from Detroit, but the Lions -- who have won once since the last two New Year?s celebrations, remember -- are favored against the Rams.

But they should be. Here?s the most glaring statistic of them all: The Saints have more points than the Rams, Raiders and Browns combined ? in one fewer game, too. Ouch.

Sal?s picks:A 3-0 week? All easy winners, too (Chargers and Packers each covered by more than three touchdowns, and the Dolphins-Saints total was good by more than four TDs). I?ll take it ? moving the season mark above .500 for the first time at 11-9-1. This week, I?ll try to keep the roll going with the Cowboys -9? vs. the Seahawks, the Giants +2 at the Eagles and the Texans-Bills over 41.

****

The media/celebrity picks:

Lance Burton, Monte Carlo master magician (13-8)

Bears -13? vs. Browns

Packers -3 vs. Vikings

Falcons +10 at Saints

****

Anthony Crivello, star of "Phantom -- Las Vegas Spectacular" (14-7)

Lions -4 vs. Rams

Cardinals -10 vs. Panthers

Saints -10 vs. Falcons

****

Carrot Top, Luxor headliner (16-5)

Lions -4 vs. Rams

Colts -12 vs. 49ers

Chargers -16? vs. Raiders

****

Terry Fator, Mirage headliner (9-12)

Cowboys -9? vs. Seahawks

Eagles -2 vs. Giants

Vikings +3 at Packers

****

Oscar Goodman, mayor of Las Vegas (13-8)

Saints -10 vs. Falcons

Colts -12 vs. 49ers

Cardinals -10 vs. Panthers

****

Ryan Greene, Las Vegas Sun sports writer (8-12-1)

Ravens -3? vs. Broncos

Texans -3? at Bills

Cowboys -9? vs. Seahawks

****

Alicia Jacobs, KVBC entertainment reporter (12-9)

Broncos +3? at Ravens

Vikings +3 at Packers

Jaguars +3 at Titans

****

Kevin Janison, KVBC meteorologist (10-11)

Giants +2 at Eagles

Cowboys-Seahawks over 45?

Packers -3 vs. Vikings

****

Christine Killimayer, Greenspun Interactive sports reporter (11-10)

Broncos +3? at Ravens

Colts -12 vs. 49ers

Giants +2 at Eagles

****

Wayne Newton, "Mr. Las Vegas" (10-10-1)

Colts -12 vs. 49ers

Cowboys-Seahawks over 45 ?

Packers -3 vs. Vikings

****

Frank Caliendo?s Fantasy Studs of the Week

Jay Cutler, Chicago, and Steven Jackson, St. Louis

First let me give props to my friend Carrot Top and his great job picking games this year. Question. Are all his choices considered PROP bets?

Is there a guy more hated than Eric Mangini? Well, besides Balloon boy's Daddy. You know who will love facing his defense this Sunday? Jay Cutler.

I can remember August 2008 when the Zune was going to overtake the IPod, John and Kate were America's sweethearts, and the Rams' Steven Jackson was the first pick in my fantasy draft. Well, Steven gets his first TD of 2009 (and maybe more) this week.

Last week?s rating:

TOUCHDOWN. New England?s Tom Brady also had no problems in old England, tossing three TD passes in London. Dallas Clark also found the end zone in Indy?s rout of the Rams.

 

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NFL Week 8 Wagering Opportunities

NFL Week 8 Wagering Opportunities

NFL Week 8 Wagering Opportunities


The schedule might be on the light side again this week, nevertheless meaningful NFL action will be conducted. Who doesn?t want to see Brett Favre in his return to Green Bay and it is made all the more interesting with the Packers favored and they could nearly tie Minnesota for first place in the NFC North. It?s Game 1 of day/night doubleheader for New York at Philadelphia, with the first contest on the gridiron. Denver places its perfect record on the line in Baltimore and the Jets look to build on last week 38-0 shutdown hosting Miami. Seeing it?s a Halloween weekend, thought going a little macabre and discuss the merits of the Rams and Lions contest.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia 1:00E FOX

If Philadelphia (4-2 SU&ATS) is to make a statement in the NFC East in 2009, the next two games will be the turning point. With home games vs. the Giants and Dallas on tap, the Eagles have a real chance to make themselves a factor. History might be on their side for this week?s game if the line remains the same, as underdogs have dominated the Philadelphia-New York series of late, going 7-2 SU & 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings. With injuries to key Philadelphia offensive personnel, Donovan McNabb and Eagles fans will try and lift the team to 9-3 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field. The Giants are 5-2 SU and ATS after losing to Arizona and continue a brutal schedule that will take them all the way through January. They are 21-12 ATS in divisional games under coach Tom Coughlin and have coved 10 of last 12 on the road.

Keys to the Game-

The Giants have lost two in a row, not getting enough of a pass rush and secondary being exposed due to injuries. Making McNabb as uncomfortable as possible has to be defensive goal. Another is limiting the chances for explosive DeSean Jackson to beat them. Punter Jeff Feagles has to directional kick accurately and for reasonable distance, something he failed to do last week. The G-Men are 14-4 ATS after playing a game at home and Eli Manning has to rediscover accuracy. When he?s as off-target as he?s been the last two weeks, it?s usually because he strays from fundamentals.

At last check, coach Andy Reid doesn?t need an invitation to throw the pass, look for him to test the Giants secondary, expect numerous three and four-receivers sets. Brian Westbrook won?t play, which means rookie LeSean McCoy has to be prepared, but not be anxious. The Eagles are 14-4 ATS in home games after playing on Monday night and will be taking calculated risk the Giants pass rush won?t get McNabb. If it does, Philly coaches will have to make quick in-game adjustments.

Power Line ? Philadelphia by 1
Consensus? Giants cover
Sportsbook.com Line ? N.Y. Giants -1, 44

St. Louis at Detroit 1:00E FOX

The nice thing about games like St. Louis-Detroit is that the oddsmakers still post betting lines on them. Oh, and also, one of the clubs will get a confidence boosting win. These have been the two worst NFC teams for the past several years, but haven?t gone head-to-head since 2006 when the Rams (0-7, 2-5 ATS) won a 41-34 affair as 5.5-point favorites. The Lions (1-5, 2-4 ATS) will be a rare home favorite, the first such instance since December 2007 in fact. Including that SU win/ATS loss vs. the Chiefs, Detroit is on a 4-0 SU & 2-1-1 ATS run as home chalk (now that?s scary). Coming off their bye week, the Lions also own a winning record in post-bye games of late, with 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS mark. St. Louis is still looking for a first win but stop the presses; the Rams own a 3-2 ATS record in their last road games (oh the humanity!)

Keys to the Game-

Anyone reading this deserves a key to the city from either Detroit or St. Louis. Quarterback Marc Bulger has looked ill-suited for the last couple of offenses he?s been in charge of since Mike Martz left town. His career path is taking on Joey Harrington proportions. In this celebration of losers, Bulger has to throw crisper passes that finish off drives, especially against NFL's 30th-ranked pass defense. Steven Jackson is the Rams best player by a generous margin, give him the ball until he collapses from exhaustion, that?s OK, St. Louis has bye next week. Otherwise, Rams fall to 6-19 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.

Receiver Calvin Johnson has been upgraded to probable, which is big help for team is desperate need of being able to stretch the field. The Rams allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt (31st in NFL), which should provide Detroit ample opportunity to attack down the field. The Lions rushed for over 129 yards against Minnesota and Washington in weeks 2 and 3 and 92.6 per game since. The offensive line has to return to physical football. The Lions are 3-13 ATS tackling wretched defensive teams who give up 27 or more points and they better tackle Jackson or add one digit to right side of ledger.

Power Line ? Detroit by 6

Sportsbook.com Line ? Detroit -4, 44

Denver at Baltimore 1:00E CBS

Teams coming off their bye week will meet when Baltimore hosts Denver. They come in riding completely different waves of momentum however. The Broncos last beat San Diego to take full control of the AFC West Division at 6-0. They are unblemished ATS as well (6-0), and are allowing a league best 11.0 points per game. In fact, strange as it is, the Denver defense is the better unit in this matchup. Baltimore (4-2 ATS) has lost three straight games to fall back to .500, and is yielding 21.7 points per game (19th) and 5.8 yards per play (23rd) after six contests. Those numbers fall well short of the accomplishments of the 2008 Ravens which were the No.2 overall defense. Head coach John Harbaugh?s team faces back-to-back divisional road tests after this one; making it all the more important they win this ballgame. In this head-to-head series, the Ravens and UNDER are both 5-1 ATS in last six conflicts.

Keys to the Game-

How teams have been dissecting the Ravens is by spreading them out. Coach Josh McDaniels has had two weeks to break down tape and can view the Baltimore secondary is beatable in several ways. Kyle Orton has thrived in this offense and has one worthless Hail Mary interception on the season. As every quarterback facing the Ravens at least knows, find safety Ed Reed first before throwing. Denver is 16-5 ATS after a bye week and will want to introduce linebacker Elvis Dumervil to Joe Flacco and build on his 10.5 sack total already this season.

Coach Harbaugh trusts Flacco this season more as passer, maybe too much. To start the season the Ravens ran the ball over 33 times a game, during the current three game losing streak, almost half, at 17.6 carries per contest. This would be a good time to establish tight end Todd Heap and fullback Le'Ron McClain and keep the Denver defense on the field for extended periods of time. Baltimore has covered nine of last 11 as a favorite and has to tackle better with all the short stuff Denver throws and completely take away the run. Baltimore needs points of some kind every time they are Denver territory.

Power Line ? Baltimore by 9

Sportsbook.com Line ? Baltimore -3, 41.5

Miami at N.Y. Jets 1:00E CBS

It will be a quick turnaround for the AFC East rematch between the Dolphins and Jets, who met just three weeks ago in an entertaining Monday night contest in Miami. The Dolphins (2-4 SU&ATS) won that game 31-27 as three-point home underdogs to boost their record in divisional play to 6-2 ATS under Tony Sparano. (Interesting to note the Fins are less than point difference playing on the road compared to home vs. New York) However, this will be the first time since September 27th that they will have played on the road after struggling to just 20 points in two away losses. New York (4-3 SU&ATS) wraps up its home divisional slate with this contest and is looking to improve a 1-7-1 ATS mark in that scenario since 2006. New coach Rex Ryan?s team was able to snap its three-game losing streak last week in Oak-Town to climb back over .500 on the season. The Jets own the edge in the recent series clashes in New York, going 12-5 SU & 10-4-3 ATS since David Dinkins was elected mayor of new York City. (1992)

Keys to the Game ?

This week Miami has to get more out of their base offense and likely be less dependent on the Wildcat. The Jets have seen live once already and should have a good read on how to contain or stop it. Having Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown in the game at the same time, adds a new element of deception, running draws and screens from different sets. Ted Ginn Jr. needs sideline time, he?s more a deterrent than help to Dolphins offense. Have Chad Henne chuck the pigskin to Brian Hartline and others. Miami is 3-13 ATS off a non-division contest, playing a division rival next and have to hope rookie cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Sean Smith can hold up against the pass and run.

This will be Henne?s first road start and Ryan?s bunch has to apply the pressure to him and make him feel as unsafe as midnight walk thru Central Park. Miami averaged better than six yards per Wildcat carry three weeks ago, that needs to be sliced in half. The Flyboys are only 1-5 ATS after opponent hangs a zero on the scoreboard, however can improve that record by giving Mark Sanchez a similar gameplan to last week. Keep it simple and add elements as the game progresses based on need. You traded for Braylon Edwards, keep him involved.

Power Line ? Jets by 8

Sportsbook.com Line ? N.Y. Jets -3.5, 40.5

Minnesota at Green Bay 4:15E FOX

It seems like they played just yesterday, but Sunday is already time for the much anticipated rematch between Brett Favre?s Vikings, and his old team, Packers. This game might even be bigger than the last meeting, as this will be the first time Favre will return to Lambeau Field. It?s also important because the lead in the NFC North Division will be on the line, with Green Bay (4-2 SU&ATS) having a chance to pull even in the loss column with a win. The Vikings (6-1, 4-3 ATS) won round 1 but are off their first loss and looking to improve a 1-5 ATS record in their last six pre-bye week divisional games. They are also just 1-5 SU & ATS in NFC Central road contests of late. Green Bay is on a 7-1 SU and ATS surge as divisional hosts and has won six of the last nine at Curly Lambeau?s place. Minnesota owns a 7-2 ATS edge on the almost frozen tundra.

Keys to the Game-

If Brett Favre said he?s never been more nervous before a game than the one in Minnesota, wait until this one. Coach Brad Childress has to script the plays that allow Favre to come out aggressively, yet stay away from danger. Adrian Peterson has been fairly well bottled up four of the last five games and should be utilized more in the screen game to exploit his open field talents. The Vikings only have six turnovers on the year, the two last week cost them the game. Protect the ball against the team with the best turnover ratio in the NFL. Minny?s offense is fire and they are 14-3 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in three consecutive contests.

Focus the running game to the left, run the ball at Jared Allen almost exclusively the first part of the game. Work is body and legs to slow down his pass rush for later. Aaron Rodgers went to Cal, thus he should have enough education to dump the ball off to backs or tight end instead of taking negative plays. With CB Antoine Winfield out, work underneath passes to start and run double moves against fair to below average safeties. The Packers defense has allowed three points to two crummy teams (Lions and Browns), yet it is not a coincidence that since Aaron Kampman has played in three-point stance in passing situations, the defense has improved. The Pack is 8-1 ATS at home off a double digit win and has to muddy the back of No.4?s jersey starting in the first quarter.

Power Line ? Green Bay by 1
Forecaster ? Minnesota covers
Sportsbook.com Line ? Green Bay -3, 47

 

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Bitter Rivals Clash

Bitter Rivals Clash

Bitter Rivals Clash


There will be no Sunday Night Football this weekend thanks to the World Series. That doesn?t mean we?re going to be without marquee matchups in Week 8 of the NFL season. We?re going to open up things in Philly with the Eagles playing host to the Giants. Then we head to Green Bay where some fellow named Brett Favre will lead his Vikings into a battle with the Packers in a classic NFC North showdown.

Giants at Eagles ? 1:00 p.m. EST, Fox

As if the tension in the City of Brotherly Love wasn?t already high for the Fall Classic, we?ve got this classic rivalry to use as an appetizer.

New York (5-2 straight up, 4-3 against the spread) started the year off with five straight wins, sending its fans into a lathered frenzy. Two consecutive losses, however, have tempered some of the expectations of the Giants.

The G-men?s most recent setback came last Sunday night on national television by falling to Arizona as eight-point home favorites, 24-17.

When you look at last week?s game, you can tell there wasn?t a lot of rhythm to what New York was doing on the field. The Giants only converted four of their 15 third downs and six of their 15 drives ended after just three plays.

So where do you pin the blame for the Giants? woes? A lot of it can be laid at the feet of Eli Manning. New York?s signal caller has completed 49 percent of his passes for 421 yards with two touchdowns and four picks in his last two starts ? both losses, by the way. Compare that to the Manning who opened the year with 64 completion percentage, averaging 242.4 yards per game with 10 scores to just a pair of interceptions.





Not all the fault is Manning?s though. New York?s secondary has been the bane of its existence recently. They have given up 576 yards through the air to the Cardinals and Saints over the last two weeks. That?s scary considering this unit is second in the league by giving up just 158.4 passing YPG.

They?ll need to step it up this week against Philadelphia (4-2 SU, ATS), who is coming off of a 27-17 road victory over the Redskins.

While it doesn?t come as a surprise that the Eagles were able to beat a lowly Washington side, there is reason for concern. The most important thing to note is the fact that the ?Skins actually outgained Philly 308-262 last Monday night. The lowly Raiders even won the yardage battle (325-283) along with the final score the week before.

Bodog?s sportsbook manager, Richard Gardner, points out that Philadelphia?s recent play has made the betting shops shy of favoring them. ?The Eagles inconsistent play and their loss to the Raiders a couple weeks back have mad the public more leery of backing them again and led to the Giants as the one point favorite. In a season where all the double-digit favorites have not only been winning regularly but covering with ease bettors are less forgiving of that stinker that the Eagles put up. Still it is a division game which is always close and the Eagles do have home field advantage so we expect the game will continue as is with the Giants as a small favorite.?

That helps explain why most sportsbooks have installed New York as a one-point road favorite with a total of 44. You can still find Philly as a one-point home ?chalk? or as a pick ?em if you shop around with the same total.

Philly has won and covered the last to meetings with its bitter NFC East rival. The ?under? has cashed in on a decent clip as it is 5-1 over the last six battles.

Something else to keep in mind on this battle is that the Eagles are playing on a short week after a Monday Night Football appearance. Philadelphia has been a great wager in this spot, as evidenced by a 15-6 SU and 15-5-1 ATS mark when playing at home after a MNF game.

Vikings at Packers ? 4:15 p.m. EST, Fox

Green Bay (4-2 SU, ATS) already had this game marked down on their calendars since it is one of the league?s best rivalries before the season started. Then they really looked forward to this match after Brett Favre unretired again to play with the Vikings. Now, they are desperate to win this contest to get back into the NFC North race.

The Packers were lucky to get the greatest warmup the NFL knows this season, a game with the Browns. Aaron Rodgers sliced them up by completing 15 of his 20 passes for 246 yards and three touchdowns. He was never sacked once in this game, the first time that?s happened to him all season.

Green Bay also holds one of the best defenses in the league right now. They rank fifth in scoring defense (16.0 points per game), 12th in stopping the run (97.5 YPG) and fourth against the pass (174.0 YPG).

The Pack will need their defense to be at their best to face off against Minnesota (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS).

The Vikings might have been caught in a look-ahead spot for this week after losing 27-17 to Pittsburgh in Week 7. Although, they should have won this game had it not been for a fumble return and interception returned for a touchdown in the fourth quarter.

Favre completed 34 of 51 of his passes for 334 yards, but was directly responsible for both of the Steelers? fourth quarter scores. Adrian Peterson showed that he?s once again a beast by rushing 18 times for 69 yards and one touchdown last Sunday. Peterson also caught four passes for 60 yards.

Minnesota?s defense had a fantastic day versus the Steelers. They held Pittsburgh to just 259 yards and allowed them to move the chains four times on 12 occasions. And the Vikes held Ben Roethlisberger to just 175 yards passing ? the worst performance yardage-wise in a regular season game since Week of 17 of the 2008 campaign against Cleveland.

The sportsbooks have posted Green Bay as a standard three-point home ?chalk? with a total of 47. Gamblers can back the Vikings to win outright for a plus-155 return (risk $100 to win $155).

Gardner helps explain what is expected by the good people at Bodog. ?With this game we expect it to be a close divisional game although as we saw with their last match up it does not always work out that.?

Would an unblemished Minnesota side made any difference to that line? ? If the Vikings had beat the Steelers and gone in to the game undefeated we would have still have Green Bay as a favorite but we would have come off the key number of three and had it as the Packers by two.?

Regardless of what the line is right now, the Pack just better hope to hold off the dogs for Rodgers. Minnesota was able to sack the Green Bay quarterback eight times for 42 yards in a 30-23 win as a five-point home favorite.

Green Bay?s offensive line will be scrutinized all the more after the aforementioned performance. Center Scott Wells will remain the starter as Jason Spitz will be ?out? of the lineup with a bout of lower back spasms. Rookie left tackle T.J. Lang is still slated to start this weekend as Chad Clifton is ?out? with an aggravated ankle sprain. But Allen Barbre on the right side of the o-line will be under the microscope the most after he was Jared Allen?s whipping boy in the last meeting in Minnesota.

This series has been a bit on the homer side with the home teams winning four of the last five games SU. However, gamblers should note that the Pack has been 4-2 ATS in that stretch. The ?over? is on a 4-1 run as well.

Green Bay has been great in games as a home ?chalk? that follow up a tilt they allowed three points in, as evidenced by a 6-2 SU mark. When it comes to covering the spread, on the other hand, the Pack is just 3-5 ATS.

 

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Total Talk - Week 8

Total Talk - Week 8

Total Talk - Week 8

The scoreboard operator was working hard last weekend as nine teams posted 30 points or more, plus the Colts (42), Bengals (45) and Saints (46) eclipsed the 40-point barrier. With the good comes the bad and we?d be remiss not to mention the putrid Raiders (0), Browns (3), Rams (6), Buccaneers (7) and Chiefs (7). The five attacks combined for 23 points, which is one point more than what New Orleans put up in the fourth quarter (22) against Miami last week.

After all the results were tallied, the ?over? produced a 7-6-1 mark. After seven weeks, the ?over? stands at 54-49-1 (52%). Six of the 13 contests on tap this week are divisional battles, which usually dictate defense. The weekly bye is quickly coming to a close but make a note that the Bengals, Chiefs, Patriots, Steelers, Bucs and Redskins will be off this weekend.

Finally?

Heading into last Sunday, gamblers chasing the ?over? in the late afternoon games have been burned and burned badly. The ?under? was 17-7 (71%) in the 4:00 ET matchups through the first six weeks. It?s often been said in sports gambling that all things balance out in the long run and we evidenced that last week. Four of the five games played in the afternoon set went ?over? and rather easily too. The five games saw a combined 52 PPG posted, including an 80-spot between the Saints and Dolphins. Will the trends continue in Week 8?

Nice to see you again!

Handicapping totals in division battles can often give the player an edge since the sample size to analyze is much larger. One total system that some bettors follow in these situations could be defined as the vice versa play. If the first regular season outcome between the two teams goes ?over? or ?under? the listed total by 10 points or more, then do the opposite in the second meeting. More often than not, the total is adjusted based off the first total, which gives more of an edge to the play. Let?s take a look at the four games this week and see if they fit the system.


Miami at N.Y. Jets (40.5): In the first meeting on Oct. 12, the oddsmakers were expecting a slugfest between the two clubs. The total opened at 37 and was bet down to 36 at most books, which is strange considering the game was on MNF. Sure enough, the Dolphins stopped the Jets 31-27 and the game went ?over? the number but it was helped with a 35-point explosion in the final 15 minutes. Since the game went ?over? the posted number by 22 points and the total is inflated by four points in the second meeting, an ?under? look fits the vice versa system. Plus, Miami has seen the ?over? go 3-0 behind Chad Henne at QB but all three were at home. The Jets? defense has given up 9, 17 and 16 at home this year and most would expect head coach Rex Ryan to look for revenge in the rematch.

Jacksonville at Tennessee (44.5): The Jaguars posted a season-high 37 points on Oct. 4 in their 37-17 victory over the Titans. The 54 points jumped ?over? the total of 41 ? points largely due to a 30-spot posted in the first half. Again, the game sailed above the oddsmakers? number and now they readjusted to the ?over? by four points. Well, the Titans? defense (33 PPG) has been torched up and down this season, most recently giving up 59 to the Patriots. The unit is banged up a bit but you have to believe that the extra week of rest will have Jeff Fisher?s team ready, right? Another question this writer asks, is QB Vince Young really the answer for Tennessee? In his career against the Jags, he?s completing 53 percent to go with 8 interceptions. You be the judge?

Oakland at San Diego (41.5): The Chargers nipped the Raiders 24-20 in the Week 1 MNF opener at Oakland. The 44 points barely slipped ?over? the total of 43.5 and it was amazing how it hit. SD held a 17-13 lead with less then three minutes left before JaMarcus Russell connected on a prayer to Louis Murphy, giving the Raiders a 20-17 lead. Then, SD marched down the field and punched in the go-ahead score. While the aforementioned system doesn?t fit here, an ?under? look seems doable, especially when you consider Oakland?s offense (8.9 PPG). Plus, in the last four meetings between the two from Qualcomm Stadium, the Raiders have scored 7, 10, 14 and 14. Just hope the Bolts don?t explode and it might be ugly for Tom Cable?s crew ? again.

Minnesota at Green Bay (47.5): This matchup could?ve fit the above criteria but the Packers and Vikings started hot in the first meeting but cooled off late. Minnesota earned a 30-23 win over Green Bay on Oct. 5 at home. The Vikings led 28-14 with 10 minutes left in the third quarter before they closed with 11 in the fourth. Brett Favre was sharp (271 yards, 3 TDs) in the first meeting but it makes you wonder how he?ll do in his return to Lambeau. Four of the last five in this series have gone ?over? but the Packers? defense has only give up three points in their last two albeit against the Lions and Browns. Green Bay has watched the ?under? go 2-0 in its two divisional games at home. Dare we say three?

Quick Hits

Denver at Baltimore: The Broncos have been a crazy ?under? team (5-1) this year, while the Ravens have seen the ?over? go 4-2. Denver?s defense hasn?t folded in the second-half all season long. Will the extra week off hurt or help the red-hot Broncos?

Cleveland at Chicago: The Browns have scored 6, 3, 6 and 14 on the road this year. And seven of the 14-spot came on a kickoff return touchdown by Cleveland?s MVP, Joshua Cribbs.

Houston at Buffalo: Don?t look now but the Bills? defense is playing great football. In their last three, the team has given up a total of 28 points, which has helped the ?under? cash in all three. Was it a matter of competition?

San Francisco at Indianapolis: Another defense that is clicking right now is the Colts. The unit has allowed an average of 10.5 PPG in the last four games. The 49ers put up 21 last week, all in the second hall and all behind QB Alex Smith. Can he carry that over?

St. Louis at Detroit: One of the key factors that you look for when betting totals is the strength of the defensive units and it?s safe to say that the Lions (31.3) and Rams (30.1) are both garbage. Does a bad defense stop a bad offense? We?ll find out on Sunday at Ford Field.

Carolina at Arizona: The Cardinals were a clear-cut ?over? team last year but things have changed in the desert. Arizona has seen the ?under? go 5-1 this year, including a perfect 3-0 mark at home. Carolina?s offense is in a funk but they?ve played better away from home.

Shootout in NOLA

The Saints are averaging a league-best 39.7 PPG and what?s most impressive is the balance on offense, plus the opportunistic defense. The offense is ranked seventh in passing (272 YPG) and third in rushing (154.5 YPG). Defensively, the unit has accounted for five touchdowns. Atlanta comes to The Big Easy this weekend after giving up 37 to the Cowboys last Sunday, which was the worst effort of the season. The last three in this series have gone ?over? the total and the oddsmakers had posted totals of 50.5 and 51.5 in the pair of regular season encounters in 2008. Now the number is up to 55. It?s high for a reason and don?t be surprised to see it rise.

The ?over? is 7-1 (88%) on Monday Night Football this year and the books keep pumping up the numbers. Gamblers should make a note that there have been only two totals listed at 50 or higher this year and both have went ?under? the number.

Fearless Predictions

We?re hoping to get back on the winning train this weekend after suffering our second straight losing week. On the year, the totals have gone 6-6 (-60) and the teasers are 2-4 (-200). Based on one-unit plays, we?re in the hole for $260 but a sweep this week will put us in the BLACK. As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!

Best Over: Seahawks-Cowboys 46

We played the Dallas ?over? last week and we?re going to ride it again here. The Cowboys? offense has balance plus the big-play ability is starting to shine through the air. Seattle?s strength is its passing game and we expect them to throw out the running game after getting behind early. This one hits the fifties if not more provided you put up sixes.

Best Under: Texans-Bills 41.5

We don?t like Buffalo QB Ryan Fitzpatrick but we do like the Bills? defense. Houston hasn?t been a good team after a victory according to franchise history and we expect them to be flat here. The Bills have seen their last two at home go ?under? and we look for three straight on Sunday.

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Seahawks-Cowboys 37
Under Texans-Bills 50.5
Under Dolphins-Jets 49.5

 

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Trend Setters - Week 8

Trend Setters - Week 8

Trend Setters - Week 8


A new week is here in the NFL, and with that more trends become available to peruse. The most reliable trend this NFL season has been backing favorites, as 'chalk' in Week 7 finished 10-2-1 ATS. What's even more disturbing is the 80% stat in which favorites that win straight-up this season are 56-14-1 ATS. The lines will get bigger as the gap continues to open between the league's good and bad teams, but we have four games circled that provide solid trends.

Dolphins at Jets (-3 ?, 40 ?) - 1:00 PM EST

These two teams met three weeks ago at Landshark Stadium, as Miami won a see-saw battle, 31-27 over New York on Monday Night Football. The Dolphins have now won and covered consecutive games against the Jets, including the Week 17 victory last season at the Meadowlands.

The Jets snapped a three-game skid with a 38-0 blowout of the Raiders to move to 4-3 on the season. New York has not been profitable as a home favorite since 2007, racking up a 4-7-1 ATS mark. Despite the loss at Miami, the Jets have owned this series, compiling a 9-2-1 ATS record the last 12 games against the Dolphins.

Miami looks to rebound after giving away a 21-point lead to New Orleans last week, as the Dolphins fared well last season on the road inside their division. The Fins went 3-0 SU/ATS in 2008 against the AFC East away from South Florida and are 5-3 ATS as a road 'dog under Tony Sparano.

Giants at Eagles (-1, 44) - 1:00 PM EST

It will be a great Sunday in the City of Brotherly Love as these two NFC East rivals throw down prior to Game 4 of the World Series between the Yankees and Phillies. The Eagles bounced back nicely after a surprising loss at Oakland by beating down Washington. The Giants, meanwhile, look to snap a two-game skid after slipping up against the Saints and Cardinals.




The Giants have been solid plays in two situations over the last few seasons going into this contest. Since 2006, Tom Coughlin's team is 8-2 ATS on the road inside the NFC East, including an underdog victory at Dallas in Week 2. The Giants have lost 22 games dating back to 2005, as New York has bounced back nicely with a 15-7 ATS mark following a SU loss.

The Eagles have struggled in the role of a home team off consecutive road games, going 1-7 ATS the last eight in this spot. However, Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS the last ten off a road division victory.

Seven of the last nine meetings have been won by the road team, while the underdog covered all nine times. The Giants are 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU their last four trips to Lincoln Financial Field.

Texans (-3 ?, 41 ?) at Bills - 1:00 PM EST

Houston has been a nice surprise through the first seven weeks, starting 4-3. What's even more surprising is the fact that Gary Kubiak's team is favored on the road for only the fourth time in franchise history. The Bills, meanwhile, who seemed like a train-wreck through four weeks, have all of the sudden won consecutive road games to improve to 3-4.

This is not a prime spot to back the Texans (who are the only road favorite this week in the NFL), as Houston owns a 4-16 ATS mark in franchise history on the road off a home win. Also, the Texans have struggled against the AFC East recently, going 0-6 ATS their last six, including a Week 1 loss at home to the Jets as a three-point favorite.

The Bills have somehow scratched out victories the last two weeks, beating the Jets in overtime, then holding off the Panthers in Charlotte. Under Dick Jauron, Buffalo is 6-1 ATS as a home underdog off a SU 'dog win, winning outright as seven-point underdogs last week at Carolina.

Jaguars at Titans (-3, 44 ?) - 4:05 PM EST

Both these teams are coming off the bye week, but both are definitely in different states of mind. Jacksonville is 3-3 after knocking off St. Louis in overtime, while Tennessee tries to forget about the 59-0 pounding put on them at New England. The Titans are one of three winless teams in the league at 0-6, as Vince Young will start at quarterback this week.

The Jags have covered twice on the road against division opponents this season, cashing as a touchdown underdog at Indianapolis, while winning outright as a field goal 'dog in Houston. Jacksonville is now 5-2 ATS the last seven games as a road underdog against the AFC South. Despite getting blown out in their last road contest at Seattle, the Jags are 10-6 ATS when getting points away from Jacksonville since 2007.

The Titans continue to be an absolute mess following a 13-3 season a year ago. Tennessee has already lost at Jacksonville this season, but the following trend will flat-out scare you about the Titans. Under Jeff Fisher, the Titans are a startling 1-17 ATS as a home favorite of three points or more against an opponent who is coming off a SU win of less than ten points. Is that reason enough to fade Tennessee? Probably not, but it's hard to buy into the due factor with a team that has likely packed it in for the season.

 

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Las Vegas Money Moves

Las Vegas Money Moves

Las Vegas Money Moves


In the aftermath of last week?s awful Week 7 of pro football action, the Las Vegas Sports Books have tried to combat the correct public perception of a few teams by inflating the lines of a few teams beyond what the power ratings and Las Vegas Sports Consultants suggest.
Public favorites like the Saints and Colts who have combined to go 11-1 against the spread this season have had almost 3 points added to their ratings this week. LVSC recommended the Colts -9.5 against the 49ers this week and was opened at -11.5 at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book and that still didn?t stop the public who have bet it to -12.

The Saints Monday Night Football game against a good Falcons team had a release of -7.5 and the Hilton opened it -9 and was quickly raised to -10.

?We have been inflating our send numbers to the books after coming up with what our normal odds making rating would be,? said LVSC?s senior oddsmaker Mike Seba. ?We have to adjust with the way things are currently and hope that things turn around. These type of high numbers used to have value in the NFL, it?s not like college where they have to impress the polls.?

As an example of what kind of adjustment has been made, Seba gave insights to his thinking in making the number for the Saints Monday night game.

?In a normal scenario, the Saints would be about a 6 or 6.5-point favorite. This is a pivotal division game for the Falcons and will be bringing their best game. In situational type of odds making, we look less at what happened to the Falcons last week at Dallas and look at what?s at stake for the Falcons this week. If they lose, so does their chances at winning the division,? explained Seba.

To show how just how big of an initial inflated number LVSC suggested at 7.5 when their ratings came up with 6 or 6.5, just consider that they straddled over ?7? which is the second highest margin of victory in football over the last five years at 9.1%. Only ?3? has a higher margin of victory at 14.5% over the same span.

If it were any other number not around a key number, their inflated number could be considered a move of about 2.5 points. Compounding what looks to be great value on the dog is that sportsbooks took an already diluted line and watered it down more by pushing it to 10.

These are the times and market we live in and until someone proves the Saints or Colts wrong, these lines will continue to rise.





In the opposite end of the spectrum, the teams that the public love to bet against, the lines are equally as inflated. A sketchy Bears team can?t erase the public love of betting against the Browns who were suggested as 12-point dogs, but the Bears opened -13.

The Chargers, who haven?t exactly dazzled the bettors going 2-4 ATS, were suggested as -14.5 favorites at home against the Raiders, a team they barely beat in Week 1. The line opened -16.5 and was bet to -17 until finally finding a Raider taker bumping the line back to -16.5.

The Panthers have been one of those teams the public has cashed against regularly going 1-5 ATS. The send on the game was the Cardinals -7.5, the Hilton opened -8 and is currently at -10.5.

Fortunately for the books this week, two of the worst teams in the league are playing each other when the Rams play at Detroit. It should be interesting to see what side they go with in this doozy of a battle. No line has been put up on the game because of the Lions QB status where both Daunte Culpepper and Matt Stafford have practiced this week.

College Football Notes

Hawaii QB Shuffle

Everyone has been eagerly awaiting the Nevada line to come out to see where the major line move goes because the move has been golden in the last four Wolfpack games. In three of those instances, the line has moved with Sharp Nevada action and the cover got there. In the instance the money went against Nevada, the Sharps got there too.

This week they play Hawaii who has a real mess at the quarterback position. The last three weeks Hawaii has gone with Bryant Moniz, who started the season as the Rainbows No. 3 QB. He suffered a concussion in first quarter of Boise State?s 54-9 win last week. Replacing Moniz was Shane Austin who was unable to move the ball and threw 2 interceptions.

Compounding the Hawaii QB circus this week is that there is a chance that the original No. 2 QB Brent Rausch could play. He?s been nursing a pinkie injury on his throwing hand for the last six weeks

The variable on the line when it does eventually come out could be as high as 7 points. The send out from Las Vegas Sports Consultants was Nevada -27 based on Moniz starting. If for any reason Moniz can?t go forcing Austin or Rausch as the starter, the line could be around -33.

Big Games with Not Too Much Big Opinion

In the big games of the week, the line has been steady with USC -3 at Oregon as well as Texas -9 at Oklahoma State.

In the ?World?s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party?, Georgia opened as 16-point dogs and have been bet down to 15. It?s odd they would call this game the ?Largest? since many of the fans at this game also attend that regions NASCAR events. Guess the 130,000-plus drink Vitamin Water at Atlanta and Charlotte Motor Speedway?s.

Just a Few Line Moves This Week

TCU was bet from -33 all the way to -37, but then some UNLV money came in pushing it to 34.5 where it sits now.

The early Sharp move of the week came Monday laying pick 'em with Kent State up to -2.5. Florida State was also bumped from a -7 opener on Monday to -9.5 Tuesday in their home game against North Carolina State.

Ohio State opened -40 in their non-conference game against New Mexico State, thanks to the Big-10 conference having 11 teams, and the line has risen a point just about every day to where it?s sitting now at -44. After struggling in the opener against Navy, the Buckeyes have covered four straight at home including last week?s win over Minnesota where QB Terrelle Pryor looked sensational. For whatever it?s worth amid the city of Columbus demanding he be moved to wide-out and wishing Michigan had won the recruiting battle two years ago for him, Pryor responded quite well under the scrutiny from losing their season at West Lafayette. This week could be a nice practice game for him to stat pad.

 

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Analyzing NFL Injuries

Analyzing NFL Injuries

Analyzing NFL Injuries

You might have noticed it took a couple of extra days for sportsbooks to post last week?s point spread between the Buffalo Bills and Carolina Panthers That of course was due to the tenuous playing status of Buffalo quarterback Trent Edwards, who had sustained a concussion in his previous outing versus Miami.

With no clear commitment from coach Dick Jauron on who would be the quarterback, sportsbooks were loathe to post a line that might come back to bite them. (Everything else seems to be going against the books these days, so why wouldn?t this?)

When it became more and more evident that backup Ryan Fitzpatrick would be under center for the Bills, the line opened with the Panthers by 7. If Edwards had started, I could see that spread at 6, so although we weren?t talking about an injury to Tom Brady or Drew Brees, you can understand why the books were so hesitant with a key number involved. (As you know, sportsbooks hate moving off key numbers like 7 and 3.)

How to value the loss or addition of a player is something that keeps us constantly challenged at Bodog. With an injury to a premier quarterback like Brady or Brees, a line might swing 3 or 4 points. Considering the importance of the passing game in today?s NFL, you?ll get some who will argue it should be even more.

Of course, Brady missed the entire 2008 season and the Patriots still managed to go 11-5 and blow out a bunch of teams with an inexperienced quarterback in Matt Cassel who barely played in college, let alone the pros.

The fact is, every NFL quarterback, even the ones who?ve held more clipboards than they?ve started games, can make the throws given the right teammates. They wouldn?t be in the NFL if they couldn?t. As Cassel?s learned in Kansas City, it?s not so easy without decent receivers or pass protection.

Typically, we see casual bettors overvalue quarterbacks and undervalue the more ?boring? positions like offensive line.

Just ask the Seahawks how important injuries to the offensive line can be. Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck was sacked five times and completed just 10 of his 29 passing attempts in Sunday?s 27-3 loss to Arizona. The 34 percent completion rate was his lowest since 2004.

The Cardinals had Hasselbeck running for his life the entire game, thanks in large part to the make-shift line that was protecting him. Three starters were missing from the Seattle offensive line, yet bettors still loaded up on the Seahawks -3. Good for the book, bad for the public.

 

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LVSC Rankings - Same Old Story

LVSC Rankings - Same Old Story

LVSC Rankings - Same Old Story

The NFL has almost turned into a status quo-type league through the first seven weeks of the season, with many of the favorites cashing in consistently. The latest Las Vegas Sports Consultants rankings reflect that for Week 8, as four of the top five teams didn't move.

The Saints were on the verge of losing their first game, falling behind the Dolphins, 24-3 nearing the end of the first half. New Orleans scored a late touchdown to cut the deficit to 14, then put together a massive second-rally to stun Miami, 46-34. New Orleans remains one of the three unbeaten teams in the league at 6-0, as the Saints play their first division game of the season this Monday Night, hosting Atlanta.

The Colts stayed put in the second spot after their demolition of the Rams, 42-6. Indianapolis has cruised along so far, owning the same 6-0 mark as New Orleans. The Colts return home this week for another interconference contest, laying double-digits again, this time against the Niners.

Traveling to London couldn't slow down the Patriots, as New England blasted winless Tampa Bay, 35-7. Tom Brady and the Pats sit in the third position this week heading into the bye. New England owns a 5-2 mark atop the AFC East, as the Dolphins invade Foxboro following the Patriots' off week.

The Steelers knocked the Vikings from the ranks of the unbeaten, as Pittsburgh remains steady in the fourth spot. Mike Tomlin's defense registered a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns in the Minnesota victory, Pittsburgh's fourth straight win. The Black and Gold has the week off before heading to Denver in Week 9 to battle the unbeaten Broncos.

The Giants slipped one position from 4th to 5th after dropping their second straight game. New York fell at home to Arizona, 24-14, as the Giants are now in a tight race inside the NFC East. The G-Men lead both the Cowboys and Eagles by a ? game each, as Tom Coughlin's club heads to Philadelphia for a crucial showdown this Sunday.


The Falcons dropped two spots from 9th to 11th following a road loss at Dallas. Atlanta has put together a solid record at the Georgia Dome under Mike Smith, compiling a 10-1 mark. The road hasn't been as friendly for the Falcons, going 5-7, including a 1-2 record this season. Atlanta can make waves inside the division this Monday night when the Falcons head to the Big Easy to take on the unbeaten Saints.

The Cowboys made the biggest leap this week (12th to 9th) after the win over the Falcons. All of the sudden, Dallas is 4-2 with their two losses coming to the Giants and the Broncos. Tony Romo and the Dallas offense have opened up the last two games, putting up fantastic numbers against the Chiefs and Falcons. The 'Boys are back at home this week as substantial favorites against the struggling Seahawks.

The Bears took the biggest tumble following a blowout loss at Cincinnati, 45-10. Chicago fell from 15th to 19th, as the Bears have dropped two in a row after a 3-1 start. The cure to this losing streak is the Cleveland Browns, as Eric Mangini's team invades Soldier Field this Sunday with the Bears laying nearly two touchdowns.

Below is LVSC's NFL Power Rankings for Week 8.

LVSC NFL Power Rankings - Week 8
Rank Team Last Week Rating
1 New Orleans 1 142.7
2 Indianapolis 2 142.3
3 New England 3 142.1
4 Pittsburgh 4 141.5
5 N.Y. Giants 4 140.9
5 Minnesota 6 140.9
7 Philadelphia 7 140.7
8 Baltimore 8 139.8
9 Denver 10 139.0
9 Dallas 12 139.0
11 Atlanta 9 138.8
12 Green Bay 11 138.3
13 Arizona 13 137.8
14 San Diego 14 137.2
15 N.Y. Jets 16 136.8
16 Cincinnati 18 136.2
17 Houston 19 136.0
18 San Francisco 17 135.4
19 Chicago 15 135.3
20 Miami 20 133.4
21 Seattle 21 132.7
22 Jacksonville 22 132.4
23 Buffalo 24 132.3
24 Carolina 23 131.9
24 Tennessee 25 131.9
26 Washington 26 129.0
27 Kansas City 27 128.5
28 Cleveland 28 127.0
29 Detroit 30 126.5
30 Tampa Bay 29 126.4
31 Oakland 31 125.5
32 St. Louis 32 125.0

 

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Packers welcome Vikes

Packers welcome Vikes

Packers welcome Vikes
November 1, 2009
By SBGGlobal.com

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, 4:15 pm Eastern ? Fox



There is no question that the biggest game in NFL betting Week 8 takes place in Green Bay as the 4-2 Green Bay Packers host the 6-1 Minnesota Vikings and Brett Favre. Packer fans have been waiting for this game for a long time and now it is here as Favre returns to Lambeau Field for the first time as a visiting player. Favre led the Packers to seven division titles, 11 playoff appearances and 13 winning seasons but he is likely to be loudly booed on Sunday.

Green Bay is a 3-point favorite with a total of 47.5 at SBG Global.



Favre is trying to just get past this week against his former team but it will not be easy. It also won?t be easy to get a win against a Green Bay team that is playing very well. Favre played well in the first meeting between the two teams earlier this season in Minnesota that the Vikings won as he completed 24 of 31 passes for 271 yards and three touchdowns. Green Bay?s defense has looked better since then though as they have given up just 288 total yards and three points in since. The Packers rank third in total defense and fifth in scoring defense. "It's good to have two big wins," linebacker Aaron Kampman said. "We haven't done that back to back (with) dominant performances on the defensive side of the ball. Obviously it's going to help us going into a very large game, large stage again at Lambeau Field."



On the other side of the ball the Packers are getting great play out of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. He is second in the league with a 110.8 rating and has passed for 1,702 yards with 11 TDs. "He deserves everything that he accomplishes," Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy said. "He's just doing a really good job of running the offense and I can't say enough about that."

The key in this game on Sunday will be giving Rodgers time to throw. The Vikings lead the league with 24 sacks and sacked Rodgers eight times in their first meeting.



Green Bay has won three straight and 12 of 15 against Minnesota at home. Minnesota has not won at Green Bay since 2005. The Vikings are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. The Vikings are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Green Bay. The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a NFL betting favorite.



The Over is 7-2 in the Vikings last 9 games as a road underdog. The Over is 10-4 in the Packers last 14 games as a home favorite. The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the two teams.

 

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49ers head to Indy

49ers head to Indy

49ers head to Indy
November 1, 2009

San Francisco 49ers (3-3) at Indianapolis Colts (6-0)
Date: Sunday, November 1st
Time: 1:00PM ET
TV: Fox
Line: Indianapolis -13
Total: 44 ?

Just a couple of weeks ago, this looked like a matchup of two of the best teams in the league. You can still say that about the undefeated Colts, but the Niners have not been the same since Brett Favre tore their heart out with that last second win back in week 3. Alex Smith will get the start against a Colts team that hasn?t missed a beat with the retirement of their coach Tony Dungy.

Quarterback/SFO

Alex Smith will be back under center after coming in to replace Shaun Hill in last week?s loss against Houston. The Niners are reeling, having lost 3 of 4 after starting 2-0. Smith?s stats were impressive. He was 15/22 for 206 yards and 3TD?s (all to TE Vernon Davis). We do not like the Niners secondary, so Smith maybe asked to have a repeat performance if San Fran hopes to pull off the upset.
FF: Smith is 5-0 when he has had a QB rating of 95+

INDY

We are not sure if we can say enough good things about Peyton Manning. Manning enters this game with a QB rating of 114.5, should blow by 2000 yards for the season in the first half, and has 15 touchdown passes in just 6 games. Our favorite Manning stat has been his ability to use different targets. 5 different receivers enter the game with double digit catches, and none of them are named Harrison or Gonzales. Also keep in mind that his long time OC Tom Moore has taken a smaller role with the club and those stats become more impressive. Look for more of the same here, Manning will spread the ball around early looking to give Indy a nice lead in order to force Smith to pass more then he would like.
FF: Manning is 31-16 vs. NFC/needs 5 completions to become 4th player in history with 4000

Running Backs

Frank Gore still looked like a guy battling an ankle injury last week against the Texans. He has had a full week of practice, and should be healthy Sunday. San Francisco has been terrible protecting the Quarterback allowing an average of 3 sacks a game. If they are going to slow down the Colts who come into the game with 16 sacks, Gore will have to be effective early to help control time of possession, keep Manning off the field, and also to prevent the Niners from having to play from behind.
FF: Gore is 4th in the league in total rushing yards since 2006 with 4,106 (2nd in NFC)

Colts rookie Donald Brown is doubtful with a shoulder injury, so Joseph Addai will get the majority of the carries. Addai has done well in the platoon with 4 rushing TD?s including one in 3 straight, but overall the rushing game has struggled for the Colts averaging just 90 yards a game. If the Colts can get the lead, Addai will get plenty of chances to raise those numbers.
FF: Addai has 11 rushing TD?s in last 9 games vs. NFC

Wide Receivers

We have been on the Vernon Davis bandwagon all season and continue to be here. Davis has thrived in Jimmy Raye?s offense catching 29 passes for 350 yards and 6 TD?s. He will have a tough assignment on Sunday with Colts SS Bob Sanders covering him, but Davis is playing with confidence, and has a size advantage that should help him against the always tough Sanders. If Raye spreads the offense for Smith, we expect to see more of Michael Crabtree in the offensive game plan.
FF: Davis 6 TD catches are #1 in the league.

In the offseason people wondered who would become the go-to guy for the Colts. Manning made it easy by making EVERYBODY a go to guy. Look at the numbers. Reggie Wayne/39 catches, 550yds, 5 TD?s, Dallas Clark 38 catches 3 TD?s, Joseph Addai 27 catches, and well, you get the picture. There is a reason for the success of this team, and it starts with these guys. It could be a long day for Dre Bly and Nate Clements. Reggie Wayne missed practice all week with a groin injury but should be able to play on Sunday.
FF: The Colts have won 15 straight regular season games.

Defense:

We talked to two different sources in San Francisco this week, and neither one had a solid idea of what the Niners game plan would be on Defense this week. It?s easy to understand when you consider Matt Ryan and Matt Schaub lit up the 49?ers the last two weeks throwing for a combined 600 yards, 70 points, and 4 TD passes. If those two guys did that kind of damage, you can see why no one is quite sure what we see against Manning. Our guess is you load the box, and try to make Addai beat you.
FF: the Colts are an impressive 54% on 3rd down conversions

It wouldn?t surprise us if Peyton Manning got some votes as DEFENSIVE MVP for the Colts. Manning has been so effective in getting the Colts an early lead; it forces opposing teams to throw the ball more than they would like trying to catch up. That is what the Colts expect here. They know Smith has not seen a lot of game action, and feel he can be rattled, and also duped by different looks. If Sanders can be effective against Davis, it will make for another long day for Mike Singletary?s team. Freeney who was listed as questionable earlier in the week is expected to play.
FF: Since 02 Dwight Freeney?s 77.5 sacks in 2nd to only Jason Taylor?s 86.5 in the league.

Key Injuries:
Colts: Reggie Wayne (probable), Anthony Gonzalez (OUT), Donald Brown (OUT)
49ers: Michael Lewis (probable), Takeo Spikes (Questionable), Justin Smith (Questionable)

Betting Trends:
49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an UNDERDOG
49ers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games