nfl is just way too difficult to win at
- Thread starter HighRoller
- Start date
I agree man, look at the fu/ckin totals and how close they all come, and the spreads too, there's no logic, not b/c Im bitter, its just freakin ridiculous, your bets hinge on whether a fukin mook puts the ball on the carpet or refs blow their whistles, bet college football or the nba or baseball
Mike
Mike
i actually agreed with your post..............until i clicked and saw the inside message.
nfl is difficult, but nba is like absolutely flipping a coin sometimes.
professional sports are very difficult. the money is in college.
gl roller
nfl is difficult, but nba is like absolutely flipping a coin sometimes.
professional sports are very difficult. the money is in college.
gl roller
i agree, seems i always win on sat then give it back on sun, im dont with NFL unless i see a play that really catches my eye. NFL is like flipping a coin. 
next year iam just gonna try middles. Allready, 2 middles hit today. Risk free money(besides juice).
nfl needs to be kept in perspective and bet on as entertainment imo. for anyone to honestly "unload" on a nfl game, thinking they have the edge over the house when there are - what -- 15 games the entire weekend? there is never going to be true "live value" or an "off line" in the nfl. a sixteen week season thats only played once a week is not going to have soft lines. when theyve gotta hang lines on 116 ncaa division 1 teams, plus basketball at the same time on the same number of schools - theres soft numbers there. the overlap of college football and college basketball season is where there are some soft lines imo. lots of games to hang numbers on.
to unload on the nfl is ludicrous
to unload on the nfl is ludicrous
I agree gman, to honestly justify betting more than 1 unit, or 2 tops on an nfl game is assenine, Id rather put my 3-4-5 unit bets on superior talent of college teams that have decided advantages than these a$$holes in the nfl, when it seems to be as safe as buying enron stock
nysports:
i agree. and its not like im up on my soapbox saying "nfl is a joke league...blah blah blah". its just that i learned awhile ago that nfl has no "consistency", and should be capped with that in mind. im not gonna lie, i like watching nfl football as much as the next guy. but when people load up on an nfl game -- its puzzling. not gonna find true value in a game played once a week and involving only 30 teams/ 15 games or whatever. personally, i play my nfl bets for half of what i bet college games for. to each his own i guess
i agree. and its not like im up on my soapbox saying "nfl is a joke league...blah blah blah". its just that i learned awhile ago that nfl has no "consistency", and should be capped with that in mind. im not gonna lie, i like watching nfl football as much as the next guy. but when people load up on an nfl game -- its puzzling. not gonna find true value in a game played once a week and involving only 30 teams/ 15 games or whatever. personally, i play my nfl bets for half of what i bet college games for. to each his own i guess
agree with hellah
the nba is a total joke
as a long time spurs fan i did not even bother to watch the playoffs much less the regular season and the nfl is getting real close to losing my interest also.
the nba is a total joke
as a long time spurs fan i did not even bother to watch the playoffs much less the regular season and the nfl is getting real close to losing my interest also.
College sports are definitely where the money is. The NFL is a total joke, for many reasons. Not to mention there are so few games, and the lines are sharp.
I do, however, think the NBA is very, very playable. There are good lines almost every night, you just need to be on top of the teams and the matchups. And you have to be selective.
I do, however, think the NBA is very, very playable. There are good lines almost every night, you just need to be on top of the teams and the matchups. And you have to be selective.
Stats and power is important in the NFL, but it requires a different mentality than college football. For years I won at college and lost in the NFL. I got busy getting better and the NFL is less work than the college's now,..... fewer teams to track and it is a job for the players so less emotion to handicap than NCAA.
Think about what I just typed.
Also one more item that simply burns me up :soapbox:
UNLOAD ! can't find a game to unload on.
GO AHEAD unload on any of them and that is what you will be doing UNLOADING your money at your bookies.
Jeez will we every learn? :shrug: :nono:
Think about what I just typed.
Also one more item that simply burns me up
:soapbox: UNLOAD ! can't find a game to unload on.
GO AHEAD unload on any of them and that is what you will be doing UNLOADING your money at your bookies.
Jeez will we every learn? :shrug: :nono:
Disagree completely.
NBA betting is far more of a crapshoot than NFL. If you have discipline, don't bet too many games, put in time capping, and use contrarian strategy, you can win at NFL 75% of the weekends throughout the season.
You'll get in trouble when you play the obvious teams, bet too many games and bet the big Game of the Week type games all the time.
Not to say it's easy, but it's laughable to think that NBA is easier. Watch NBA games for a half season and count how many are covered by a huge margin at the half and still lose, or how man covers are determined by a team making a meaningless layup at the buzzer, or a technical foul, or a team hitting a bunch of garbage threes in the final two minutes, etc, etc. It invovles far more luck than NFL, because of the nature of the spreads (much more scoring, much easier for a quick ten point swing) and because teams are playing 82 freaking games. These thugs just dont care some nights, other nights they couldnt miss if they dropkicked the ball from midcourt. NFL teams play one game a week and every game is actually important, unlike NBA. So the variables involved are far less volatile.
Just my opinion.
PS -- I'm not trying to make it sund like Im kicking ass in NFL or its simple. I'm doing OK but nothing outstanding. I've let my need for action cause me to make silly plays like the kind I mentioned, and its cost me. But if you can avoid that and hand-pick a few games with value per week, you'll win in NFL.
NBA betting is far more of a crapshoot than NFL. If you have discipline, don't bet too many games, put in time capping, and use contrarian strategy, you can win at NFL 75% of the weekends throughout the season.
You'll get in trouble when you play the obvious teams, bet too many games and bet the big Game of the Week type games all the time.
Not to say it's easy, but it's laughable to think that NBA is easier. Watch NBA games for a half season and count how many are covered by a huge margin at the half and still lose, or how man covers are determined by a team making a meaningless layup at the buzzer, or a technical foul, or a team hitting a bunch of garbage threes in the final two minutes, etc, etc. It invovles far more luck than NFL, because of the nature of the spreads (much more scoring, much easier for a quick ten point swing) and because teams are playing 82 freaking games. These thugs just dont care some nights, other nights they couldnt miss if they dropkicked the ball from midcourt. NFL teams play one game a week and every game is actually important, unlike NBA. So the variables involved are far less volatile.
Just my opinion.
PS -- I'm not trying to make it sund like Im kicking ass in NFL or its simple. I'm doing OK but nothing outstanding. I've let my need for action cause me to make silly plays like the kind I mentioned, and its cost me. But if you can avoid that and hand-pick a few games with value per week, you'll win in NFL.
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Jeff, I view your posts a lot on here and think your picks are pretty good and I usually agree with em. I agree with you nba is a lot of times determined by late garbage foul shots and the like. But ya know what, if you try to isolate te spots where it wont come down to that, you can do well. Selectivity is basically the key to winning sports betting IMO...there are 50,0000000 things to bet on now, quarters halves props everything, just have to be in control.
I disagree with you on nfl with one thing. I hate hype games usually MNF and such, but Ive been playing contrarian plays and LOSING my ass in nfl this year......today was on: sf,miami,washington, 1-2 isnt that bad but not winning, and I layed off atlanta and pittsburgh which were both conrarian plays, public's been winning this year overrall, they probably took a bath on eagles and seahawk and dallas winning at 4 today those were all obvious, I never remember the nfl being like this
Mike
I disagree with you on nfl with one thing. I hate hype games usually MNF and such, but Ive been playing contrarian plays and LOSING my ass in nfl this year......today was on: sf,miami,washington, 1-2 isnt that bad but not winning, and I layed off atlanta and pittsburgh which were both conrarian plays, public's been winning this year overrall, they probably took a bath on eagles and seahawk and dallas winning at 4 today those were all obvious, I never remember the nfl being like this
Mike
Mike-
100% true. If you act like a kid in a candy store, your wallet is going to have a big ole cavity right in the middle.
I can't argue with that either. I've never seen an NFL season like this, where so many heavy public favorites cover. Bottom line, the best teams are covering far more often than we're used to, and far too often for the contrarian bettor.
The Chiefs keep covering despite having a boatload of backers every week. And the obvious faves on MNF seem to cover every freaking week! Green Bay vs. Chicago, KC vs. Oakland, Miami vs. San Diego, so on so forth.
There have been a lot of games like Dallas and Philly today that look far too easy to be true, but aren't. After the first five or so weeks what I did was stop betting the opposite of these sides for the sake of siding with The Man, like I have in the past. It's just not working this year.
It's a frustrating feeling, when you put cash on a team like, say Atlanta or Washington, because you just KNOW that every square is on Dallas and Philly, you see the 75% consensus at *****line, and the line isn't moving much ... then you lose anyways. And the squares high five eachother like doofuses, smug because they just KNEW it was the Dallas and Philly were the locks of the week.
I suspect it will come back around to the books favor, though. For now I'm just trying to avoid those games altogether.
100% true. If you act like a kid in a candy store, your wallet is going to have a big ole cavity right in the middle.
I can't argue with that either. I've never seen an NFL season like this, where so many heavy public favorites cover. Bottom line, the best teams are covering far more often than we're used to, and far too often for the contrarian bettor.
The Chiefs keep covering despite having a boatload of backers every week. And the obvious faves on MNF seem to cover every freaking week! Green Bay vs. Chicago, KC vs. Oakland, Miami vs. San Diego, so on so forth.
There have been a lot of games like Dallas and Philly today that look far too easy to be true, but aren't. After the first five or so weeks what I did was stop betting the opposite of these sides for the sake of siding with The Man, like I have in the past. It's just not working this year.
It's a frustrating feeling, when you put cash on a team like, say Atlanta or Washington, because you just KNOW that every square is on Dallas and Philly, you see the 75% consensus at *****line, and the line isn't moving much ... then you lose anyways. And the squares high five eachother like doofuses, smug because they just KNEW it was the Dallas and Philly were the locks of the week.
I suspect it will come back around to the books favor, though. For now I'm just trying to avoid those games altogether.
this year the general public (squares) have been hitting at a high rate with many local books getting hurt,and even in vegas the sport books have been getting hit, a day like today when some dogs that dont figure got the $$$$$$$$$--the people who lost today are down on the nfl(betting) and say you cant win with any consistency,usually so,but these teams that dont figure are going to cover sooner or later and maybe for a while,the first half of the season the better teams that figure where getting the $$$$$,and now maybe the contrarian way will work for the 2nd half.
I PLAYED THESE TODAY THINKING THE WORM WILL TURN.
NYG-W -2.5
MIA -L
OAK-L
NEW OR-W TRIPLE PLAY
HOUSTON-W
ARIZ-W
WASH-L
PHIL-W
SFR-W TRIPLE PLAY
I PLAYED THESE TODAY THINKING THE WORM WILL TURN.
NYG-W -2.5
MIA -L
OAK-L
NEW OR-W TRIPLE PLAY
HOUSTON-W
ARIZ-W
WASH-L
PHIL-W
SFR-W TRIPLE PLAY
From Jeff: "NBA betting is far more of a crapshoot than NFL. If you have discipline, don't bet too many games, put in time capping, and use contrarian strategy, you can win at NFL 75% of the weekends throughout the season. "
Didn't want to quote your entire comments but one of the most intelligent posts I've see in quite a while. "contrarian strategy" is an investment term, you play the markets? Ever read TASC or any Elliot?
Didn't want to quote your entire comments but one of the most intelligent posts I've see in quite a while. "contrarian strategy" is an investment term, you play the markets? Ever read TASC or any Elliot?
you got me pegged Jeff. Nothing makes me hurt worse than seeing people high five after winning on Philly and Dallas today and saying "See, I told you philly was a lock today and dallas too" which people told me after the game today, more so with dallas game because I took washington but didnt take atlanta, hopefully the worm turns, granted some anti public bets won ala san francisco, and houston, but I refuse to bet those garbage teams anymore, just hopefully the worm turns, in times like this you gotta even be more selective than usual and its damn hard to do
Mike
Mike
