NFL Playoffs

Blackman

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First play:

Eagles -7 +100 vs any opponent next week (offered at 5Dimes right now)....basically a strict line value play. Philly can play the Rams, Seahawks or Vikings next week, and I don't see any of them getting much respect on the road in the 2nd week. If you don't like the matchup you can get a middle, or you'll have line value if you want to keep it.


Will be back with 2h plays for today's games as they develop.
 

60 SEC ASSASSIN

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talk about the early bird catches the worm. ;) GL with the play next week BM. I totally agree with you. They will go out there and prove that they can win big with no TO against any of these teams
 

Blackman

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Took the Jets +7 and a small taste of the ML -- really see them as a live rushing dog, and if the turf is as sloppy as you read they've got more than a fighters chance. Chargers are a good team, but have limited playoff experience, none of which comes as a unit. Laying 7 seems rich for a team that hasn't been here in ten years with a coach who has struggled in the second season.
 

GM

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Very good Blackman. I don't think you'll see the line at anything less than -7, regardless of opponent. Wish I had a book offering the same bet.
 

Blackman

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Eagles vs Rams or Vikes -- have to think I've got a nice line now sitting at 7.

Will be back at halftime, hopefully the Jets look good.
 

GM

PleasureGlutton
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You got value.

Olympic's early lines have Philly favored by 9 against either opponent.

(Other lines: Atl -6? vs StL, and Atl -3ev vs GB. No totals posted yet on any of the matchups.)
 

trolln4walii

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Blackman

Read your thread earlier, didn't realize you had the play on the Jets till a few minutes ago. Congrats on the winner and the Sweet ML. GL with your Eagles and your great #7 next week. :)
 

bombercoops

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GL with the eagles next week. Will be riding them in a teaser if the line stays 9.5 or less. Nice hit today on the jets also.
 

Blackman

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ajoytoy said:
nice middle opportunity B!

gl this weekend.

go eagles;)


Thanks Toy. I think I'm going to keep the line and let the money on -7 ride. Just based on everything I read, and everything I know about the Eagles, this weekend is not the round I'm worried about. I hate the Minnesota secondary outside of Winfield, and while of course the loss of Owens is huge we've still got weapons in Westbrook and both tight ends. Hopefully Culpepper turns back into the fumble master that we've seen in the past. Think this will be a statement game for Philly, especially #5.
 

Blackman

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Pats ML +103....not ready to drink the Colts Kool Aid just yet. They are a solid team but I'll believe it when I see if when they win in New England. The fact that the 14-2 reigning champions are a home dog in the playoffs just boggles my mind. Can't pass up this kind of line.
 

Blackman

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Will write up the NFC championship later in the week after I gather info. At first glance under might be the play based on Andy Reid's tight play calling in the past during these games. I do have concerns about keeping Vick contained, as I'm not sure we've got a LB with the speed to spy Vick. Gut instict says JJ will have Kearse in a "joker" role roaming around the line, but we'll have to see. The Eagles penetrate the line well, but if they overpursue Vick they are going to be in a lot of trouble.
 

AR182

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balckman,

outstanding job.

#5 was very efficient....haven't really looked at last week yet.

wouldn't it be something with an all pennsylvania super bowl ?

continued success.
 

Blackman

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Slowly compiling info for the NFC championship game. Here's the best breakdown I've seen of the Falcons' defense, and how they match up with the Eagle offense. I got this from a friend on an Eagle fan site, you'd be suprised how well some of these guys "handicap" these games, even if they have no intentions of laying a penny on the game. I guess the emotional investment is enough.


Kerney and Smith are classic 4-3 ends, and Jasper really is a 4-3 NT. They signed Coleman in the offseason from Oakland (I wanted to sign him and trade Simon) who plays the "under" DT spot. Coleman's very quick, but undersized, 6-2 285, if he doesn't get a good jump off the snap, he's dogmeat, and he wears down after 45 snaps or so. They got a journeyman, Lake, and Chad Lavais, rookie from LSU who's decent with upside. Backing up the ends is Travis Hall, a converted DT, think an older version of Whiting.

Matt Stewart is a decent SLB with average speed, Chris Draft is a Sims clone, even smaller at 5-11 235, about as fast, was good in the 3-4 as an ILB but a little overmatched as a MLB. They've moved Brookings to WLB to take advantage of his side speed combo, and look for him to either shadow Westbrook or blitz.

Corners are DeAngelo Hall, raw but a great athlete, Jason Webster (5-9) who's struggled with injuries, and Kevin Mathis (5-9 177) who has a high ankle sprain. Behind them is Aaron Beasley, big but slow, and Rossum. Safeties are Cory Hall who couldn't cut it in Cincy and Bryan Scott, a PSU CB who was moved to SS, Scott is a decent tackler with average speed, could be matched up against LJ. They play a lot of soft zone, (allowed 63% completion and 7.2 ypa) but might be tempted to press and blitz like Mora did to us in SF and Donatell in Green Bay - but their CBs aren't experienced at the technique and the safeties have only average speed - so if Pinky or Lewis beat the jam DMAC will air it out.

Falcons play much better defense at home, where they really turn it on once they have a lead, they had 31 sacks at home v 17 on the road, second half of the season (6 games before they did what we did), 16 sacks in 4 home games, 2 in 2 road games (Bucs and Giants), so you can see they're not the same on the road. Crowd noise is a big factor, far more false starts by the opposition in Atlanta than on the road. Because their defensive line is undersized, they need to get off the ball quickly or they'll be enveloped by our much bigger offensive line. They've defended well against the run by penetrating the gaps. Look for the Eagles to exploit their aggressiveness with screens and misdirection, slow down the rush with hard counts, and run draws with Levens to keep Coleman honest. If we can get them to hestitate on the snap, our line will ovewhelm them and wear them down. And if McNabb gets time, we'll chew up their secondary.


Hope it helps, more to come...
 
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