NFL Playoffs

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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
7,541
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL Regular Season: 19-33 (-16.70*)

NFL Post Season YTD: 6-3 (+2.55*)

NCAA Regular Season: 43-39 (+0.26*)

NCAA Bowl Season YTD: 8-7 (+0.00*)


"Runaway Train" (Posted on 11.19.06):
lostinamerica said:
- - It could always be worse . . . anatomy of a streak means being gun shy at exactly the wrong time - it's killing me even more than the wrong sides, which have been worse than the bad beats, which . . . . 2006 sucks . . . now it's extra juice to boot . . . endeavor to persevere . . . no time like the present . . .
Click to expand...
Runaway Train . . . Polar Express . . .Send Lawyers, Guns and Money . . . And yet, in fact, the season was only several critical plays from being no better or no worse than a typical season. Instead, squeezed by money management from 69 games last year to 52 games this year, and invariably "hedging" my hole digging with the wrong plays (giving the heave, ho to a play on the Ravens the week of Pittsburgh @ Baltimore(-3) was, in retrospect, the umpteenth trigger decision blunder when I knew had sealed my fate for this season), I never turned a corner . . . "endeavor to persevere" . . .

GL

***************************************
The Journey is the Reward ~ 1996 Green Bay Packers
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2005 NCAA Regular Season: 44-40 (-0.33*)
2005-2006 NCAA Bowl Season: 7-8 (-1.20*)

2004 NCAA Regular Season: 55-49 (+3.58*)
2004-2005 NCAA Bowl Season: 5-8 (-4.96*)

2003 NCAA Regular Season: 53-43 (+5.35*)
2003-2004 NCAA Bowl Season: 7-7 (-0.42*)


2005 NFL Regular Season: 40-29 (+7.40*)
2005-2006 NFL Post Season: 6-3 (+3.17*)
2005 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00)

2004 NFL Regular Season: 46-46 (-0.95*)
2004-2005 NFL Postseason: 7-3 (+5.72*)
2004 NFLX: 1-0 (+1.00*)

2003 NFL Regular Season: 49-51 (-4.94*)
2003-2004 NFL Post Season: 7-4 (+3.09*)
2003 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00*)
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
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Oct 10, 2001
7,541
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Indianapolis(-7)(-115) over Kansas City (1*)
- - Last year, Indy came into the postseaon and was reeling - nothing to play for on the field after a 13-0 start - emotionally devastated off the field by the suicide of James Dungy - carrying expectations that were off the charts, and having a week off to stew over how to get things turned around. Last year, Indy drew the eventual champs from Pittsburgh - a red hot team getting hotter - a team that embraced playing on the road under HC Cowher off the disappointment of the prior season - a stellar defense that creates momentum on the road by forcing turnovers, and knocked Manning around from the first series on - a physical team that wins ugly about as often as it wins by playing a near perfect game . . . This year, Indy might be the same flawed team they ever were, more or less, but IMO having had to wait a year for another opportunity, they come into this atonement game having already been written off but in fact arriving with palpably far better momentum (of which the return of S Bob Sanders and TE Dallas Clark are difference makers for a team that shouldn't really need that spark in this spot in the first place). This year, in comes inexperienced Kansas City to the speedy carpet and frenzied dome of the host, possessing and counting on a single dimension (arguably) to expose Indy's shortcomings (KC's return game might be their second biggest weapon, but I don't see that being either a certain advantage or nearly enough) . . . My money is on the Colts in this one.

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070106/COLUMNISTS01/701060474

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070104/SPORTS03/701040452/1100

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/sports/football/nfl/kansas_city_chiefs/16386969.htm



Dallas @ Seattle . . .

http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/seahawks/story/6311813p-5503248c.html

http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/seahawks/story/6311813p-5503248c.html

http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/...YSA010507.01D.FBNcowboys.defense.2b2710d.html

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sports/2003511903_brewer06.html


GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
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Oct 10, 2001
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Philadelphia(-7)(-105) over New York Giants (1*)
- - Whether sitting at 3-9, 6-6 or 9-3, the first aspiration of every NFL club is to be a good team, a status that is certainly easier for cappers to define than it is to identify. We will have to agree to disagree if you don't think the Eagles turned that corner down the stretch. Now, most of the heart and soul of whatever this Eagles team is, will start a possible championship run with their first opportunity in five weeks to play in their own stadium and in front of their juiced fans, which might be a situation with a kernel of positive momentum . . . When it ends for the fractious Giants, I'm not betting on it ending well, and I don't first expect BIG post season Big Ups from Eli, Coughlin, Plexico and Shockey, et al., and cutting the Eagles down to size for starters.

http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17679749&BRD=1675&PAG=461&dept_id=18170&rfi=6

http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/16399459.htm

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/giants/story/486035p-409186c.html

http://www.courant.com/sports/footb...an07,0,4312997.story?coll=hc-headlines-giants

http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/16399517.htm

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/05/sports/football/05eagles.html?_r=1&ref=football&oref=slogin

GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,541
264
83
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
New England(-9)(-108) over New York Jets (1*)
- - The underrated Jets have been one of my few salvations this season, but I'm going against my first inclination in this contest (which held steady as my easy inclination until I really started pulling out the scales and weighing the evidence about 24 hours ago), and giving Brady and Belichick a chance to carry my cash. B&B are 10-1 strong in the post season and I've been along for most of that ride (including, unfortunately, Brady's crapper in Denver last year). For starters, by looking at who these teams have played this year and how they've played in those spots, I'm guessing New England has the goods to create and capitalize on favorable game situations, and not let the Jets threaten to clock the hosts when the stakes are January huge. Keeping in mind that Indy dominated and embarrassed KC and still struggled to cover a number in this neighborhood, there's really very little margin or value in my best sense of what's coming and what makes New England the right side.

http://patriots.bostonherald.com/patriots/view.bg?articleid=175737

http://patriots.bostonherald.com/patriots/view.bg?articleid=175784

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/storie...ME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2007-01-04-19-02-24

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/jets/story/486338p-409493c.html


Adding . . .

Baltimore(-4)(-115) over Indianapolis (1*)
- - Extra juice, but the number hung on this post season matchup doesn't much impact what I think will be the right side.


GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,541
264
83
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
I hadn't posted a two unit play on a game all season, so I'll consolidate after a three unit winner . . . In the late game, I'll settle for a tiny shot at a middle with New England(+4') and San Diego(-4)(-115) . . . In the final analysis, you can cry me a Rivers, but I'm leaning to the electric Bolts as the right side and his troops winning this one for Schottenheimer.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,541
264
83
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL Playoffs YTD: 6-3 (+2.55*)


I can't remember a time when I struggled this much to have a definite opinion - spot on or dead wrong, but with conviction - on either of the two championship games . . . My initial takes didn't really hold up under the scrutiny of research and analysis . . . What I don't see in either of these games is the usual template of championship contests in which a dominant team gets on top and wins going away after their opponent feels it all slipping away - lots of counterpunching is how these games keep playing out in my head . . . The discussions have all been had about whether Indy's defense has even been tested, whether New England can get Peyton uncomfortable and out of rhythm and bring out the trigger on his 1TD/5INT roll during the last two games, whether New Orleans and their offensive weapons lose too much efficiency in Bear weather, whether the Bears are disrespected and will drive through New Orleans and all the way to Miami behind a power running game and shots downfield, etc., etc., etc., etc. . . . I'm going with . . .


New Orleans(+3)(-125) over Chicago (1*)
- - The Bears love to talk without even being asked, IMO, especially now, on the platform of their escape against Seattle, while the other three remaining teams seem to lack a complex about what they are all about . . . Last week, I had no doubt that Hasselbeck and Holmgren and the 9-7 Seahawks belonged and could manage a frigid field as well as Grossman and Lovie and the 13-3 Bears. Today, I would not hesitate to take the Saints if this game was played on a dry track in 48 degree weather, and I'm not letting the absence of those conditions change my play.


GL
 
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