NFL playoffs...

[fla]

1* Steelers to win Super Bowl +2000

Good value IF they can get through this game without Bell

Wild Card Weekend

7* Steelers -3 -115

Clearly I think they will. The Ravens are banged up too. Good guys win this installment of the best rivalry in the NFL by 10.

4* Panthers -6.5 -115

If Zona only had a quarterback.

4* Bengals +3.5 -115

Cincy just plays better teams better. Revenge angle doesn't hurt either.

5* Lions +7 -120

This game should be close unless Suh brings a weapon on the field resulting in many, many penalties and hopefully an ejection and suspension. This would be all that Roger needs to finish off the year.

Best of luck!

 

[MadJack]

 

[fla]

Hey! Up in the sky. It's a bird. No, it a plane....

No, it a juiced up three point very very public UNDERDOG!!!!

 

[MadJack]

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
I should really value the Ravens more than I do. They finished the season fourth in Net Yards Per Play and rank #4 in defensive efficiency and #10 in offensive efficiency, yet when I watch them live, they don?t do much for me. Going with my eyes over my head may have cost me as I opened Pittsburgh -4 and have since had to move down to Pittsburgh -3 because of a couple big bets on Baltimore late on Sunday.

This game is the biggest recreational/advantage player divide. We have seen a lot of recreational love for Pittsburgh, but our big advantage players have been all over Baltimore. Currently, our customers have bet $1.60 bet on Baltimore for each $1 on Pittsburgh, but nearly 3X more bets on the Steelers.

The Steelers finished the reason ranked 4[SUP]th[/SUP] worst in defensive efficiency. They are allowing teams to gain 103% of their average gain per rush and 112% of their average gain per pass. This lack of efficiency should allow Baltimore to do whatever they wish on offense.

On the other side of the ball, the Steelers 4[SUP]th[/SUP] most efficient offense (gaining 109% of opponents average allowance) should appear average by the Ravens 4[SUP]th[/SUP] most efficient defense (holding teams to 93% of their average gain).

In fact, if you multiply the Steelers offensive factor 1.09 by the Ravens defensive factor 0.93, the Steelers offensive expectancy becomes 1.01, or 101%...just one percentage point above average.
The numbers suggest the Ravens are a good bet Saturday night, but any value in the line is now gone. If you got in early, great, if not, wait to play another day.

 

[fla]

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
I should really value the Ravens more than I do. They finished the season fourth in Net Yards Per Play and rank #4 in defensive efficiency and #10 in offensive efficiency, yet when I watch them live, they don?t do much for me. Going with my eyes over my head may have cost me as I opened Pittsburgh -4 and have since had to move down to Pittsburgh -3 because of a couple big bets on Baltimore late on Sunday.

This game is the biggest recreational/advantage player divide. We have seen a lot of recreational love for Pittsburgh, but our big advantage players have been all over Baltimore. Currently, our customers have bet $1.60 bet on Baltimore for each $1 on Pittsburgh, but nearly 3X more bets on the Steelers.

The Steelers finished the reason ranked 4[SUP]th[/SUP] worst in defensive efficiency. They are allowing teams to gain 103% of their average gain per rush and 112% of their average gain per pass. This lack of efficiency should allow Baltimore to do whatever they wish on offense.

On the other side of the ball, the Steelers 4[SUP]th[/SUP] most efficient offense (gaining 109% of opponents average allowance) should appear average by the Ravens 4[SUP]th[/SUP] most efficient defense (holding teams to 93% of their average gain).

In fact, if you multiply the Steelers offensive factor 1.09 by the Ravens defensive factor 0.93, the Steelers offensive expectancy becomes 1.01, or 101%...just one percentage point above average.
The numbers suggest the Ravens are a good bet Saturday night, but any value in the line is now gone. If you got in early, great, if not, wait to play another day.

:scared

I was going to change my mind and go out and buy a Ray Rice jersey, however 101% is statistically impossible so I just quit reading after that.

:toast:

 

[MadJack]

:scared

I was going to change my mind and go out and buy a Ray Rice jersey, however 101% is statistically impossible so I just quit reading after that.

:toast:

Not in that context it isn't.

 

[fla]

109% and 112%?

I'm about to go out and wash my car. If I wash 112% of it does that mean that I wash 12% of my driveway also?

C'mon Man!

:00hour

 

[MadJack]

109% and 112%?

I'm about to go out and wash my car. If I wash 112% of it does that mean that I wash 12% of my driveway also?

C'mon Man!

:00hour

If I sell you my Steelers ticket I bought for $10 for $100 what is my percent of markup?

Come on, dude.

 

[fla]

Yes I'm aware. R-E-L-A-X.

I have not seen or heard a talking head pick the Steelers all week. I don't even know why they are showing up tonight.

Good luck boss. We will get through this one as we have all others.

:0008

 

[MadJack]

Yes I'm aware. R-E-L-A-X.

I have not seen or heard a talking head pick the Steelers all week. I don't even know why they are showing up tonight.

Good luck boss. We will get through this one as we have all others.

:0008

Where you getting your information?

Please look here:
http://nflpickwatch.com

ESPN 11 of 13 picked the Steelers.

 

[MadJack]

But I do think you have the winning bet there.

 

[fla]

Where you getting your information?

Please look here:
http://nflpickwatch.com

ESPN 11 of 13 picked the Steelers.

I'm more of an NFL Network viewer. The way they are picking the Ravens I feel like I'm watching an episode of 'The Wire'.

 

[Rocafellr]

I'm more of an NFL Network viewer. The way they are picking the Ravens I feel like I'm watching an episode of 'The Wire'.

Better to be lucky than to be good. -- Bunk

:0074

And Melissa Stark is on point today.

 

[sushi]

Good luck today fla. Bring home the creme Brulee... and you were absolutely right on wash... that was the smart money

 

[Coach Burns]

I was loving the Curtain here until they said
Bell is out.... But not so sure now... Still love Big Ben at
home and still got plenty of other weapons to use...
But I'm def gonna be on the Steelers BIG still
because my man Fla just told the boss to RELAX!!!
Good enuf for me LOL sorry boss just don't think
this Ravens team is like the other Raven teams
we have seen ... Flaco looks like shit to me but I
guess we will see tonite





:weed: Strike it if ya Like it!!!!!!

 

[LUNCH PAIL]

LET'S GO STEELERS......HANDLE YOUR BUSINESS :box2:

 

[fla]

A few adds before it gets started.

1* Panthers -5.5

0.5* Panthers to win Super Bowl +4000

7* total for Bengals +3.5 -115

2* Lions +250

Best of luck!

 

[fla]

Final plays for Sunday. I'm liking both dogs outright at this point.

playoffs 1-1 (-3.05)
futures 0-1 (-1.0)

7* Bengals +3.5 -115
2* Ickey Woods +170

5* Lions +7-120
2* Barry Sanders +250

Best of luck!