nfl plays for 11/2-11/3

[AR182]

trying a little different strategy for today by concentrating on what i think is the best bet for today:

10*houston texans+8(-138)--really think that carolina is in a flat spot for today. car. is giving points in a non-divisional, non-conference road sandwich game in between the ot win at nfc south opponent new orleans, & next weeks home game vs. nfc opponent tampa bay. houston has had some trouble stopping teams this year on defense, but carolina has averaged only 16 points per game & doesn't have the ability to build up a margin with it's grind it out offense. as a matter of fact, other than their win vs. atlanta, carolina has not won a game by more than 6 points. and in all 3 of their road games, car. has won each game in ot by 3 points. whenever houston has played a team, this year with a quality back, they have held each one(ricky williams, priest holmes, & deuce mcallister) under 100 yds. rushing. on offense, houstons offensive line has approved over last year in sacks allowed.last year they allowed 76 sacks vs. only 12 sacks this year. they are also opening holes for their rookie running back,davis, who has gained over 100 yds. in each of their last 2 games.

a trend this year: favorites off an ot win, which is carolinas situation, are 3-14 ats in pro & college football this season.

i will take the home team+ the points vs. a team that is in a potential flat spot.

good luck

 

[gardenweasel]

i think i like it

i think i like it

but,living around baltimore and seeing tony banks firsthand for a few years,i`m having trouble pulling the trigger....

tony vs a solid defense could mean points for the panthers....without the offense doing much.....

like the stat,though....got me thinking...

g.l.

 

[AR182]

hit the texas play & will play:

5*sf+6(-128)---in their last meeting, in which i had the rams(-2.5), sf outgained the rams by close to 100 yards. the rams won that game in ot, & i was very happy with the lucky win. tody i'm taking sf + the points at home because i don't think that sf is that much behind the rams in talent.4 of sf 5 losses have been by 3 points or less in games decided in the final seconds. i also think that sf will rally around ratay(sp?) & also will be able to control the ball on the ground vs. a rams rush defense that allows 4.6 ypr to teams that average 4..2 ypr on offense. i'll take the points in this rivalry that also will be close to the end.


good luck

 

[AR182]

will push my luck today with:

2*gb+8(150)--everybody mentions that gb does not perform in the dome well. however, gb is 5-3 ats in domes when getting more than 3 points, 8-7 ats after a loss, 2-0 ats in domes after a bye, & are 4-1 ats as an underdog in minn. i'll take the points in this rivalry against a team that i think is way over-rated.

good luck

 

[Box and one]

AR182,
Great job today.Damn.On the money on every pick.Nice Houston analysis. Congrads

 

[gman2]

ar182:

major major props. outstanding day. you re-affirm my faith in the forum when i see the stuff you post. its very well-researched, well-reasoned, and posted in a lucid manner. continued success.

 

[AR182]

box & gman,

thanks for the props. it is greatly appreciated.

just an fyi to you guys. i always read what you guys post.

yesterday i agreed with you on okla., (we were probably the only handful on all of the foums to play okla.) & utah. and yesterday gman had the penn. st. game nailed pretty well. and box i have read your posts for the last few years & knew that you had the giants today. since i am a big giant fan, i try to not even look at any of their lines because i am too biased toward them(fassell must go).

good luck to you guys.

 

[AR182]

tonight i will play:

5*denver-2(-120)--i remember danny kanell from his days with the giants & and think he is below average qb. in all fairness to him though he became denver's qb in terrible situations. he relieved beurlein at minn., which was a hot team at the time & last week he started at balt. against one of the top defensive teams in the league. tonights game kanell is playing at home in a place where i think shanahan can control the situation for kanell. the matchups are denver's #16 rated offense vs. ne's # 15 rated defense, & ne's # 20 rated offense(haven't had a 100 yd. rusher in 3 games & brady has thrown only 5 td passes) vs. denver's # 3 rated defense. denver will run portis( averaging 5.2 yds. per rush) directly at ne's defense, which i think will open the throwing lanes for kanell to hit his receivers.i think this will allow denver to play field position & rely on their defense to keep ne's mediocre offense under control.
this is a good situation for denver because teams with winning records are 33-9-1 ats as a home favorite of less than 10 points if they lost their last 2 games on the road. at home denver is 12-2-1 ats after a loss & are 24-4 ats when hosting a team with a winning % of greater than .600 & 9-0 ats when considered to be worse ( favored by less than 3 or getting points) than their opposition. denver is 38-7 su & 30-14 ats at home off a loss vs. an opponent off a win, & is 14-4 ats at home after scoring less than 11 points. ne has no covers in it's last 12 su road losses, & is 0-5 ats in it's last 5 games vs. afc opposition.


good luck