nfl plays for 12/10 - 12/14....

[AR182]

went 5-1 last week to bring my season record to 28-22....

under 44(120) cin / minn....

in the 2 games that minn. has lost this year, they were sloppy with the ball & were exposed in the 2ndary on defense....cin. is not the type of team to expose minn's defensive weakness because their receivers are more possession oriented & cin. offense is based on ball control....in their 12 games this season, cin.has had 31 pass plays of more than 20 yds. & only 4 of more than 40 yds.....the cin. defense allows a league leading 15.6 ppg & have allowed more than 20 points just twice this season....based on the above i look for a defensive type of game....

cin. is 2-9 under off a non-conference home win....

minn. is 1-4 under as favorites off a su road favorite loss....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

adding....

under 45(120) phil / giants....

this is what football is about....division game played in cold weather....can't ask for much more than that....

since 1992 23 of 38 games (60.5%) in this series have gone under the total....

since 1992 14 of 19 games (73.6%) in this series have gone under the total when the games have been played at giant stadium....also the last 3 games played at giant stadium have gone under the total....

play under - road teams against the total (phil.) - a very good team (>=+7 ppg differential) against an average team (+/- 3 ppg differential), after allowing 9 points or less last game....

since 1983 the record for this system is....45-15....75%....

the average total posted in these games was....40.1....the average total points scored in these games was....37.5....

over the last 5 seasons the system's record is....8-1....88.8%....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

adding....

under 44 carolina / n. england....

last week at home vs. tampa bay, carolina scored 16 points....& over the last 3 games the panthers are averaging 13 ppg....so with moore at qb, i don't expect carolina to score much in this game since the pats allow an average of 14 ppg at home....the pats average about 31 ppg at home while the panthers allow about 23 ppg on the road....

play under - home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ne) - excellent passing team (>=7.3 pya) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 pya) after 8+ games, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game....

since 1983 the record for this system is....35-11....76.1%....

the average total posted in these games was....46....the average total points scored in these games was....41.7....

the system's record this season is....2-0....100%....

over the last 5 seasons the system's record is....13-1....92.8%....


good luck....

 

[kcwolf]

Thanks for the great info Al, best of luck this week.

 

[AR182]

thanks very much wayne....right back at you....:mj06:


adding....

under 44 miami / jax....

miami is 1-6 to the under after a home game with the pats....

jax. is 0-3 to the under in the 2nd of 3 straight home games....

play under - home teams against the total (jax) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, with a winning record in the second half of the season....

over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....36-12....75%....

the average total posted in these games was....40.1....the average total points scored in these games was....36.5....

the system's record this season is....1-0....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

adding....

dallas-3....

sd is getting all of the love for this game as they are on a 7 game winning streak & are averaging a little over 28 ppg....their record for the season is 9-3, & rank 8th in the league in pass defense....

looking at their wins, 6 have come against teams that are in the bottom part of the league in passing?.miami (26th), kc twice (29th), oakland twice (31st), & cleve. (32nd)....they also played denver twice & in the first game denver with a healthy orton passed for 229 yds.& won the game....looking at sd's other opponents & their ranikng in passing offense....phil (10th), pitt (11th), giants (12th), & balt (13th)?.sd is 2-2 against them & allowed these teams to pass for 76 yds. per game over their pass defense average....

in addition sd is soft against the run as they allow an average of 4.7 ypr on the road this year & rank # 21....since dallas has a great rushing attack (5.3 ypr), the cowboys should be able to control the line of scrimmage when they have the ball & be able to hit some nice passes down the field....on the other side of the ball sd averages only 3.5 ypr & is pretty much 1 dimensional on offense which imo dallas should be able to contain....

i usually pay attention to trends & am fully aware of how sd doesn't lose in december & dallas doesn't win in december but i will go against that because i think the stakes are so high for dallas & take the better all around team....


good luck....

 

[Senor Capper]

GREAT WEEK !!!

GREAT WEEK !!!

and the plays look good


I took the bait on SD hoping that since they rested Merriman and Castillo (Weddle is out) that they'll play this game.
SD may be a little wore out playing the last few on the road but a W is still a very good probability.

I don't know if it's good or bad new that ALL the Tout Pubs, that I've read, have Dallas winning outright. I bet bad. :shrug:

Good Luck onda rest...
Love the Minny Undah

 

[tulah]

GL this week AR

 

[Destructor D]

Does Romo's crappy record in December & beyond scare you? I know it scares me... Dallas looks like the right side, but line is now 3.5. I still think SD is weak defensively.

 

[MrChristo]

Lovin' those unders, AR...

...and Dallas D gets it done at home.

Here's to a good one. :mj06:

 

[AR182]

adding....

under 44 denver / indy....


this who i have so far for today....

under 44(120) cin / minn....
under 45(120) phil / giants....
under 44 carolina / n. england....
under 44 miami / jax....
dallas-3....
under 44 denver / indy....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

Does Romo's crappy record in December & beyond scare you? I know it scares me... Dallas looks like the right side, but line is now 3.5. I still think SD is weak defensively.

yes it does but i think dallas is a better all around team than the chargers....

 

[AR182]

Lovin' those unders, AR...

...and Dallas D gets it done at home.

Here's to a good one. :mj06:

lets get it done mr. c....

 

[AR182]

GL this week AR

thanks tulah....good luck also....:mj06:

 

[AR182]

adding....

kc+3....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

probably my final play today....

under 42(120) rams / tenn....

here is what the rams have scored on the road this year....0,7,0,20,17,& 9 points....this averages out to 8.8 ppg....with boller at qb the rams have trouble providing consistent drives or any kind of scoring chances....last week against chicago, the rams had a putrid 3.5 yds. per passing attempt.... they have no game breakers at the wide receiver position & their only offensive weapon is their running back jackson....over the last few weeks the tenn defense has gotten healtier & their play has dramtacially improved as tenn has gone under in the last 3 weeks against some of the better offenses in the league....

rams are 1-7 to the under in the 2nd of b2b road games....

tenn. is 1-4 to the under after playing the colts....

play under - home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (tenn.) - excellent team outrushing opponents by 60+ ypg against an average rushing team (+/- 30 ryg), after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games....

since 1983 the record for this system is....37-13....74%....

the average total posted in these games was....39.2....the average total points scored in these games was....33.9....

over the last 10 seasons the system's record is....16-3....84%....


good luck....