nfl plays for 12/20-12/22

[AR182]

4*minn.+3--we all know about minn's(#1) & kc's(#2) high powered offenses & their sub-par defenses(minn.#25 & kc #28). but to me it's going to be who's defense can slow down the other teams offense & imo this is where minn. has the edge.

minn. defense plays alot better at home, where their def. yields 5.4 yppl to teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense. compare this to their season stats(both home & away combined) where they yield 5.8 yppl on def.to teams that average 5.0 yppl on offense.

kc, plays alot worse on the road than they do at home. on the road, kc yields 5.8 yppl on defense to teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense. for the whole season(both home & away), kc def. yields 5.5 yppl to teams that average 5.0 yppl on offense.

a few trends supporting this play:

minn. is 27-8 ats in home games when not favored by 3 points or more & 17-4 ats as a home dog.

kc is 2-7 ats on turf & non-conference away favorites who were in a non-conf. game last week are 8-23-1 ats since 1993.

and finally:

play on any >.400 nfl dog or favorite of <4 points in their last home game of the season if they are off a su/ats road favorite loss in which they scored 10 points or less vs. an opponent who is off a win. since 1980--- ats record is 15-0-1.
play on minn. vikings

good luck

 

[AR182]

2*jets+3--think the jets are a better team than their record indicates & think that n.e. is not as good as their record shows.n.e. is not dominating their foes & eventhough their record is 12-2, they are 6-1 in games decided by 7 points or less.

a trend supporting this play:

play on any .420>nfl division home dog with same season loss revenge in their last home game of the season.
since 1980 ats record is 20-7-2 (74%) ats.

play on the jets


good luck

 

[gardenweasel]

i teased `em....

i teased `em....

2 very live home dogs........g.l.,ar.....

 

[ajoytoy]

were opp on sat but gl regardless!!

toy

 

[AR182]

thanks, toy.

gw,

good call on the tease!!


4*jax-1---played this line when it first came out. eventhough jax is 4-10, i have been impressed with the way they have played in their last 5 games. over the 4 games before playing n.e., jax held it's opponents to an average of 8 points per game. and even in last week's game, jax outplayed n.e. theyaveraged 5.8 yppl vs. the pats defense & held n.e.'s offense to 4.4 yppl.

i constantly hear that it pays to play on a team fighting to make the playoffs( the saints) over a team that has nothing to play for. that angle is incorrect. since 1990 teams that need to win to stay alive for a possible playoff spot are just 32-63-4 (34%) ats in the final 2 weeks of the regular season vs. teams that are mathimatically eliminated. besides this game, that angle applied to the tampa bay/ atlanta falcons game yesterday & the miami/buffalo game today.

imo, jax is a better team than n.o. & i will take them with what i feel is a gift of a line.

good luck

 

[AR182]

2*buffalo-1---played this earlier in the week. miami is making it's annual late season slide. they are now 3-9-1 atsunder wannstadt from game 14 on, including 0-5 ats on the road. buffalo alowing 11.6 points per game on defense.

to repeat what i wrote about the jacksonville pick

since 1990 teams that need to win to stay alive(miami) for a possible playoff spot are just 32-63-4 (34%) ats in the final 2 weeks of the regular season vs. teams that are mathematically eliminated.

i will take the better team,imo, playing at home.

good luck

 

[AR182]

1*wash.+4.5(120)--play against any nfl home favorite off a division home win in which they scored 13 or less points vs. an opponent with a win percentage > .333

ats record since 1980---12-1

play aginst chicago bears.


good luck

 

[AR182]

adding:

all 1*

seattle
san diego
phil

good luck

 

[AR182]

i pushed with jax.-1 but felt like i lost. this game stands right next to balt. loss to the rams.


6*denver+points--i haven't played it yet, am waiting to see if the line goes above 7. even if portis is not playing, i don't understand this line. mike anderson is not as explosive as portis, but i feel that with their blocking schemes denver can be very effective in controlling the game vs a soft indy defense. i also think that denver can somewhat keep indy's offense under control with their solid defense.

a few trends supporting this play:

indy is 1-11 ats against opponents off b2b su wins.

denver is 17-5-2 ats as dogs off an ats loss as a favorite, including 11-2 ats when facing a .700 or better opponent.

good luck

 

[AR182]

so far this week am 4-4-1 +6*.


will play:


3*oakland+7(130)----oakland's home stadium is not an easy place for a visitor (just ask balt. & minn.). oak. is on a 29-10 su run at home with a victory here guaranteeing a winning home record for the 5th straight year.

statistically gb has the edge, but that may not be a good thing according to these trends:

over the past 3 years, gb is 1-7 ats vs. poor passing defenses. (allowing 7 or more passing yards/att.)

on the other side, oakland is 8-1 ats vs. good offensive teams (scoring 24 or more points/game) in the second half of the season. they are also 12-4 ats in the 2nd half of the year against winning teams.

good luck

 

[Kdogg21]

Good luck AR, I'm on the opposite end tonight. I just don't think the Raiders will be able to stop Green. he is due big time for a 100 yard running game, and I'm just thinking Mirer won't be able to handle all the pressure of a MNF game. but who knows, i see the Bears are winning and i guess anything could happen.GL

 

[BigTymePlayer]

Good points on Oakland tonite, i was thinking they would make this a game.

layed off the game itself.

good luck
btp