nfl plays week #11....

[AR182]

16-14...

did well last week by playing 1 game & that's what i'm doing today.....& like last week this play is a best bet...

n.o.-5....

a few weeks ago kc lost a winable game against the jets, then they blew a 21 point lead against tb, & then last week they lost by 1 point to san diego as a double digit dog.....home teams that lost by 3 or less points as dd away dogs are 8-25 ats (24%) their next game....

payton is 6-0 ats in road games vs. poor passing teams averaging 5.7 or less passing yards/att. as the coach of n.o.....which makes sense because these teams cannot take advantage of the saints poor pass pass defense..

edwards is 2-11 ats after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached since 1992.


play against - underdogs or pick (kc) - off a loss against a division rival, in weeks 10 through 13.

over the last 5 seasons the ats record is.....40-14.......74.1%

the situation's record this season is......3-1



good luck

 

[Cie]

payton is 6-0 ats in road games vs. poor passing teams averaging 5.7 or less passing yards/att. as the coach of n.o.....which makes sense because these teams cannot take advantage of the saints poor pass pass defense..

Makes alot sense. Saints secondary is as bad as I've ever seen.


GL sir:toast:

 

[gardenweasel]

agreed with you last week....but it seems like k.c.`s shown some life of late with this new qb...

throw in the saint`s issues on the road and this one scares me a little....

but i wish you the best of luck,partner...

 

[IX_Bender]

Not playing either side here but you cannot discount what Thigpen has done in the last 3 games from a yppa perspective.

Most of those KC pass numbers are based on Croyle/Huard, and this teams spread offense is night and day. Its been years since KC threw the ball consistently to the #2 WR and thats whats happening.

Tough laying points on the road with a bad defense, but KC "D" is probably worse. Brees will put up 325+ again.

 

[BadAngel]

GL AR

 

[Morris]

GL today AR!!

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....

hit my best bet on the saints earlier today....& wanted to post a small play for mnf now because i may not be able to tomorrow...

under 42(120) cleve / buff....

i am playing this game under for a few reasons....

cleve. scores an average of 16 ppg on the road this year, while allowing 17 ppg on the road.....which averages 33 points...buff. scores an average of 24.5 ppg at home this year, while allowing 18.2 ppg at home....which averages 42.7......if you add the 33 + 42.7 & divide by 2....the total for this game should be....37.85....


also the weather forecast is calling for snow showers....

http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/nfl/team-schedule?team=biaa


but the main reason why i am making this play is that the following trend hasn't lost in 10 years....

play under - any team against the total (cleveland) - after being outgained by 100 or more total yds 2 consecutive games against opponent after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game.

over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is......17-0....


the reason why this is a small play is because buffalo has a few injuries on their defenese & i don't trust the cleve. defense.....


good luck

 

[gardenweasel]

congrats on the saints,ar.......you were right on the money....

 

[AR182]

congrats on the saints,ar.......you were right on the money....

thanks gw....but think i was lucky that the saints covered.....but i'll take it...:142smilie

 

[arrow]

nice job

nice job

good job ar the saints deserved it, they scored touchdowns and the chiefs were horrible in the red zone. i really thought they would be better, but am glad i teased them for the money. good job ARROW